2019 Pats: Roster Projection 1.0

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RedOctober3829

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Feel free to add your own projections. Biggest surprise would be only starting the season with one tight end. Develin will be used to block on the end more until Watson comes back. Cajuste, Ebner, and Demariyus Thomas will start the year on PUP in my opinion. Tough cuts for me were Duron Harmon, Dontrelle Inman, Elandon Roberts, John Simon, and Lance Kendricks. Key battles will be at WR, LB, and in the secondary.

QB(3)--Brady, Hoyer, Stidham
RB(5)--Michel, White, Burkhead, Harris, Bolden
FB(1)--Develin
TE(1)--LaCosse
WR(7)--Edelman, Harry, Harris, Dorsett, Myers, Berrios, Slater
OL(8)--Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon, Froholdt, Skipper, Karras

DE(4)--Wise, Bennett, Winovich, Rivers
DT(4)--Guy, Pennel, Butler, Shelton
LB(6)--Hightower, Collins, Van Noy, Bentley, Sam, King
CB(6)--Gilmore, JMac, Williams, Jackson, Dawson, Crossen
SAF(5)-DMac, Chung, JJones, Brooks, Melifonwu
ST(3)--Bailey, Gostkowski, Cardona
 
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Saints Rest

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Feel free to add your own projections. Biggest surprise would be only starting the season with one tight end. Develin will be used to block on the end more until Watson comes back. Cajuste, Ebner, and Demariyus Thomas will start the year on PUP in my opinion. Tough cuts for me were Duron Harmon, Dontrelle Inman, Elandon Roberts, John Simon, and Lance Kendricks. Key battles will be at WR, LB, and in the secondary.

QB(3)--Brady, Hoyer, Stidham
RB(5)--Michel, White, Burkhead, Harris, Bolden
FB(1)--Develin
TE(1)--LaCosse
WR(6)--Edelman, Harry, Harris, Dorsett, Myers, Berrios, Slater
OL(8)--Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon, Froholdt, Skipper, Karras

DE(4)--Wise, Bennett, Winovich, Rivers
DT(4)--Guy, Pennel, Butler, Shelton
LB(6)--Hightower, Collins, Van Noy, Bentley, Sam, King
CB(6)--Gilmore, JMac, Williams, Jackson, Dawson, Crossen
SAF(5)-DMac, Chung, JJones, Brooks, Melifonwu
ST(3)--Bailey, Gostkowski, Cardona
You've got 7 names at WR but are only counting 6. (Presumably because Slater is a WRINO)
 

Super Nomario

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Obi is flashing early with 3 INTs so far. Cutting Harmon is something like $2.5M in cap savings, so I don't think his spot is super-secure.
They play different positions. Melifonwu is more of a box guy who can also play two-high, Harmon is a pure FS. You wouldn't want Harmon in the box and you wouldn't want Melifonwu as the post defender.
 

tims4wins

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They play different positions. Melifonwu is more of a box guy who can also play two-high, Harmon is a pure FS. You wouldn't want Harmon in the box and you wouldn't want Melifonwu as the post defender.
Right - Obi is the Chung backup, Harmon is the McCourty backup. The question is where Brooks fits in this, because by many reports he is also flashing.
 

RGREELEY33

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I don't even know who Brooks is at this point, but if you people don't stop talking about cutting Harmon, I am going to re-open the Gold Bubble Thread.
 

chilidawg

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It always amazes me that long snapper is a roster spot. Guys who hold for kicks can do other things, why not the snapper?
 

RedOctober3829

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Right - Obi is the Chung backup, Harmon is the McCourty backup. The question is where Brooks fits in this, because by many reports he is also flashing.
You have to remember also that they had Jonathan Jones playing some safety in the last couple playoff games last year. There's so many talented players in the secondary that Bill will have to get a little creative to keep as many of them on the 53 man roster. Harmon struggled towards the end of the year and Brooks would vastly improve the special teams units as well. If you want to keep Harmon, then you can cut Keion Crossen but I know they are very high on Crossen's ST abilities especially as Slater gets older.
 

Super Nomario

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You have to remember also that they had Jonathan Jones playing some safety in the last couple playoff games last year. There's so many talented players in the secondary that Bill will have to get a little creative to keep as many of them on the 53 man roster. Harmon struggled towards the end of the year and Brooks would vastly improve the special teams units as well. If you want to keep Harmon, then you can cut Keion Crossen but I know they are very high on Crossen's ST abilities especially as Slater gets older.
Kyed had Dawson as the odd man out in his latest projection, I think basically based on these reasons.

Harmon didn't have his best year in 2018 but the single-high safety is still so vital to what they do defensively that I think you need a pure McCourty backup. Jones was playing deep in a C4, that's a very different set of responsibilities than single-high in a C1 or C3. Harmon is also under contract for 2020, something DMac and Jones aren't.

Right - Obi is the Chung backup, Harmon is the McCourty backup. The question is where Brooks fits in this, because by many reports he is also flashing.
Brooks hasn't played 100 defensive snaps in a season since his rookie year in 2014. I don't think he factors into the defensive picture much; he's competition with the ST guys.

It always amazes me that long snapper is a roster spot. Guys who hold for kicks can do other things, why not the snapper?
On virtually every NFL team now, the punter is the holder. Practice time is limited, so having dedicated LS / K / P lets that unit practice together all the team when other units are on O/D. It's the optimal use of practice time to have those guys specialized..
 

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I always wondered why centers didnt train to be long snappers. Didnt they used to be? Do other teams utilize the center as a LS? I am sorry to admit i am not up on the 31 other NFL teams special units.
 

Super Nomario

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I always wondered why centers didnt train to be long snappers. Didnt they used to be? Do other teams utilize the center as a LS? I am sorry to admit i am not up on the 31 other NFL teams special units.
100% of teams have dedicated longsnappers, and have since Zak DeOssie stopped playing on D about a decade back.
 

McBride11

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I’d be surprised if they cut Harmon, and super surprised if they did so while keeping 8 DL. I’d lose Rivers and/or Shelton, although I’ll admit I’ve been pretty psyched to hear that Rivers has been flashing during this TC. To have a young DL develop would be welcome news. Given several of the LB’s ability to play the Edge, I think 8 feels like a lot up front.
 

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The preseason games won’t be enough for us to evaluate him but I’m curious how much they’ll need to see from Stidham to consider going with only 2 QBs. I do not think that Hoyer is likely to sign else where if cut so they could see him as an off roster backup QB for the first 1/4 or 1/3 of the season. It’s not a perfect plan obviously because Hoyer could just decide he is done, fall out of shape, actually end up getting signed elsewhere, etc... every roster decision has risks associated to it, especially at QB. But if their evaluation leads them to believe that Stidham could keep the team afloat by mid season or whatever if needed then it’s a spot where they could save a roster spot for someone else. Obviously if they think he is a long term process then they’ll keep Hoyer
 
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Yeah, that would be great news since it would suggest Stidham is a potentially legit heir to Brady, and a terrific value in the 4th round. My guess, though, is that they stick with 3 QBs this season, and go with just Brady-Stidham in 2020.
 

Average Game James

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Odds are that an injury will clear up the situation, but if the Pats get to the end of camp with all the DBs healthy you’d have to think one get traded. Jones would seem like the logical candidate since he will be expensive to keep after this year.
 

RedOctober3829

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5dice

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Roberts is a no brainer to lose out to Bentley/Collins, but as others have stated, I have trouble seeing how they keep either Brooks or Obi over Harmon.
 

RedOctober3829

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Roberts is a no brainer to lose out to Bentley/Collins, but as others have stated, I have trouble seeing how they keep either Brooks or Obi over Harmon.
Special teams. Harmon plays no ST snaps while Brooks will be prominent on ST. Obi I would imagine would play some ST as well given his amazing athleticism. If Harmon's reduced role on defense carries over from last year and he plays no ST, it's hard to justify paying him the money he's owed. Cutting or trading him saves $3.5 million against this year's cap.
 

5dice

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Special teams. Harmon plays no ST snaps while Brooks will be prominent on ST. Obi I would imagine would play some ST as well given his amazing athleticism. If Harmon's reduced role on defense carries over from last year and he plays no ST, it's hard to justify paying him the money he's owed. Cutting or trading him saves $3.5 million against this year's cap.
I get that, but this team has enough dedicated special teams role players and good regular players that also contribute to ST. In the pass happy 2019 NFL environment, for an elite ball guy like Harmon to be marginalized by some everyday safety that happens to play special teams seems silly IMO. Brooks has kicked around for several years now--I am not swayed by "flashing" in camp. I hate that word.
 

RedOctober3829

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I get that, but this team has enough dedicated special teams role players and good regular players that also contribute to ST. In the pass happy 2019 NFL environment, for an elite ball guy like Harmon to be marginalized by some everyday safety that happens to play special teams seems silly IMO. Brooks has kicked around for several years now--I am not swayed by "flashing" in camp. I hate that word.
Harmon is not an elite safety. He got benched by the end of the year and did not play much at all against some of the most high-powered passing teams in the league i.e. Kansas City(2 snaps) and the Rams(if not for Chung's injury he'd have not played much at all either). The Patriots' ST coverage was not good last year and Brooks is one of the better ST players in the league as he led the NFL in most ST snaps last year. They gave him $1.3 million in guaranteed money so he's going to be on the team.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Too many reports of Obi playing well so far in camp. Harmon could be this year's surprise cut.
 

Super Nomario

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Harmon is not an elite safety. He got benched by the end of the year and did not play much at all against some of the most high-powered passing teams in the league i.e. Kansas City(2 snaps) and the Rams(if not for Chung's injury he'd have not played much at all either).
You're listing the same thing twice - his getting "benched by the end of the year" consisted only of the KC / LAR games. His playtime was normal for the entire regular season.

The Patriots' ST coverage was not good last year and Brooks is one of the better ST players in the league as he led the NFL in most ST snaps last year. They gave him $1.3 million in guaranteed money so he's going to be on the team.
Harmon has almost twice as much guaranteed money as Brooks, with $2.5 MM. And Brooks has barely played on defense since his rookie year. They do save more money cutting Harmon.

I think there's room for both, and Obi, but it will involve cuts elsewhere. They're probably going to do something out of step with their usual history. My current suspicion is that Dawson gets traded.
 

Super Nomario

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Here's my early projection:

QB (3) T.Brady, B.Hoyer, J.Stidham
RB (6) S.Michel, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (6) J.Edelman, N.Harry, P.Dorsett, M.Slater, J.Meyers, B.Berrios
TE (1) M.LaCosse
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (5) M.Bennett, D.Wise, C.Winovich, S.Calhoun, D.Rivers
DT (4) L.Guy, M.Pennel, A.Butler, D.Shelton
ILB(2) J.Bentley, E.Roberts
OLB(4) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins, B.King
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones, K.Crossen
SS (2) P.Chung, O.Melifonwu
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Total players: 53
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Suspended: B.Watson, J.Gordon
PUP / NFI: Y.Cajuste, D.Thomas, C.Meredith, N.Ebner
IR: B.Cowart, K.Webster
Traded: D.Dawson
Toughest Cuts: M.Harris, J.Simon, J.Bailey
Look to add: another TE, another T
 

EL Jeffe

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QB (2) T.Brady, J.Stidham
RB (6) S.Michel, J.White, R.Burkhead, D.Harris, B.Bolden, J.Develin
WR (5) J.Edelman, P.Dorsett, J.Meyers, M.Harris, N.Harry
TE (2) M.LaCosse, R.Izzo
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) I.Wynn, M.Cannon, D.Skipper
DE (5) M.Bennett, D.Wise, J.Simon, C.Winovich, S.Calhoun
DT (4) L.Guy, A.Butler, M.Pennel, D.Shelton
ILB(2) J.Bentley, E.Roberts
OLB(3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (7) S.Gilmore, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones, J.McCourty, K.Crossen, D.Dawson
SS (2) P.Chung, O.Melifonwu
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona, B.King

Total players: 53
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Suspended: B.Watson, J.Gordon
PUP / NFI: Y.Cajuste, D.Thomas, C.Meredith, N.Ebner
IR: B.Cowart, K.Webster

We'll see how the preseason games go, but the reports sound like Stidham is more or less on par with where Jimmy G. was as a rookie. I was a huge Stidham fan throughout the pre-draft process and I'm firmly on that bandwagon. He has all the tools and the football IQ, he just needs to speed up his reads/have the game to slow down for him.

I take no joy in cutting Slater, but Crossen and Jon Jones are above average gunners. There are always surprise cuts, and Slater's role vs. salary don't add up. We'll see.

I was a big Dawson fan coming out of Florida. I'm still holding out hope, but he was my last guy on the roster. Calhoun was the other final decision for me, but I might be overreacting off a couple of good practice media reports. I left Izzo on as the blocking TE.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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No way Slater is cut. None.

I thought Hoyer might be but one of the Pats podcasts mentioned he runs a very good shot team.

I cannot believe the secondary depth on this team after not being able to draft a CB worth a darn.
 

DrewDawg

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. There are always surprise cuts, and Slater's role vs. salary don't add up. We'll see.
Slater's salary is what it is EXACTLY because of his role. He was paid that because of his role, not despite it.
 

BaseballJones

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QB (3) T.Brady, J.Stidham, B.Hoyer
RB (6) S.Michel, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (6) J.Edelman, M.Harris, M.Slater, N.Harry, J.Meyers, P.Dorsett
TE (2) M.LaCosse, L.Kendricks
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (4) M.Bennett, D.Wise, C.Winovich, D.Rivers
DT (4) L.Guy, D.Shelton, A.Butler, M.Pennel
ILB(1) J.Bentley
OLB(5) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins, C.Sam, B.King
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.Jackson, J.McCourty, J.Williams, K.Crossen, J.Jones
SS (2) P.Chung, O.Melifonwu
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona, J.Bailey

Total players: 53
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Suspended: Watson, Gordon
PUP: Y.Cajuste, D.Thomas, C.Meredith, Ebner
 

Saints Rest

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In my mind, the other way to look at the roster is "Locks" vs "Bubbles."

Locks (38):
QB (1) T.Brady
RB (4) S.Michel, J.Develin, J.White, D.Harris,
WR (3) J.Edelman, M.Harris, N.Harry
TE (1) M.LaCosse
C (1) D.Andrews
G (2) S.Mason, J.Thuney,
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (3) M.Bennett, D.Wise, C.Winovich
DT (1) L.Guy
LB (4) J.Bentley, D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.Jackson, J.McCourty, J.Williams, J.Jones
S (2) P.Chung, D.McCourty,
ST (5) M.Slater, B.Bolden, B.King, K.Crossen, T.Brooks
Specialist (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona

22 Bubbles vying for 15 roster spots:
Hoyer, Stidham (1 of these is for sure kept)
Burkhead
Meyers, Dorsett
Izzo, Kendricks
Karras, Ferentz, Froholdt
Shelton, Butler, Pennel
Roberts, Sam
Dawson
Harmon, Melifonwu
Bailey, Allen (1 of these is for sure kept)
Some roster fodder from another team #1
Some roster fodder from another team #2

EDIT: To add two WR's to Bubbles
 
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Super Nomario

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In my mind, the other way to look at the roster is "Locks" vs "Bubbles."
You don't have any bubble WRs listed.

I would probably put M. Harris, Bolden, and Crossen as bubble guys rather than locks.

Every time I do this exercise, I find a "lock" gets cut and one of the guys I had as not even a bubble guy ends up making the team.

EDIT: I'd also probably move Stidham and Froholdt to locks. They've never cut a 4th in his first camp, and it is pretty rare league-wide.
 

mwonow

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I also think Skipper isn't really a lock - I think they'll move on when they find someone better, likely around cut-down day
 

Super Nomario

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TE (2) M.LaCosse, R.Izzo
I love the thought process behind Izzo. I think there's a good chance we see him at some point in 2019. I think he might be a guy they can sneak onto the PS initially and then bring back later, though.

I also think Skipper isn't really a lock - I think they'll move on when they find someone better, likely around cut-down day
I feel this way, too, but OTOH I'm not even sure who else is competing for swing OT at this point. I think his chances of making the opening day roster are excellent, but he may not want to buy any green bananas.
 

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Mike Pennel is a roster lock. They give him a small but not insignificant contract and camp reports have been extremely positive. He also didn’t play tonight which provides some insight in where they see his role
 

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Mike Pennel is a roster lock. They give him a small but not insignificant contract and camp reports have been extremely positive. He also didn’t play tonight which provides some insight in where they see his role
FWIW, Bedard posted this on August 5th:

THREE DOWN - DT Mike Pennel
: I haven’t had much of an issue with his play so far but it’s obvious the Patriots do because he’s basically been relegated to the third team when it comes to team drills.
 

tims4wins

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Meyers is making this team.

I thought Harris also looked pretty good last night; yes, he could have come down with those two passes, but I thought he was borderline interfered with on both. In the NFL obviously you need to make contested catches sometimes, but both plays looked similar to the Gilmore-Cooks-Harmon play in the Super Bowl where he may have only been working with one arm. In fact I thought BB should have tried challenging the first (mainly to see what happens with the process).

Berrios also looked pretty darn good. Overall the WR situation seems better than originally projected.

Hopefully LaCosse is ok because he looked good too last night, and with Watson out the first four, they probably need him.

On D:

I think Duke Dawson's spot is in jeopardy.

I don't see how they can cut John Simon.

Collins is exciting.

Shelton had a nice night, think he has a good shot to stick.

Rivers flashed for sure.
 
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