2019 Pats: In-Season Roster & Injury Discussion

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Caspir

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At least Martysaurus had a fun, if eccentric, personality. Michael just seems like a surly fucker. Not sure what you’d fetch in a trade, but I’d bet heavily against him being in the roster come playoff time.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Brown signing is fucking them right now. They could have afforded Mack and Hooper with it. Hooper makes chump change, so he’s still gettable. Mack, they’d need to dump Bennett and like 2 million more somehow.

Brady for Fitz would open up some space...

Who?
 
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Red Averages

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The Brown signing is fucking them right now. They could have afforded Mack and Hooper with it. Hooper makes chump change, so he’s still gettable. Mack, they’d need to dump Bennett and like 2 million more somehow.

Brady for Fitz would open up some space...
I mean, they are the best team in the league and on a historic pace let’s take a deep breathe.
 

shoosh77

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DeVante Parker as an option? 15.8 ypc, not a crazy $ deal, maybe Flores can eat some money for a better pick since they are in fire sale mode.
 

cournoyer

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DeVante Parker as an option? 15.8 ypc, not a crazy $ deal, maybe Flores can eat some money for a better pick since they are in fire sale mode.
For me, wide receiver seems highly unlikely with the Sanu addition. I think Belichick has an eye on potentially available offensive lineman (especially with the news today about Shaq), but he has to be really focused on tight ends right now. No idea what's going on with Lacosse and he clearly wasn't happy with Tomlinson, who played a bunch on Monday night. If I'm Bill that's where my heads at
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Gordon doesn't save much and didn't they still need to make room for Sanu. This could just be that.
Gordon was a roster spot though, right?

Richards and Tomlinson left to make way for Sanu & Bethel. JG creates another roster spot and Shaq created some cap space. Based on overall roater strength I don't see JAG street FAs making this roster. Something is afoot (please be AJ Green or Alex Mack).
 

bsj

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I liked Gordon a lot, and I was really rooting for him. That being said, I am excited to see what Meyers can do. I think this gets him more time, and thats a silver lining.
 

BigSoxFan

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Tip: just pretend that he landed on season-ending IR after Game 1. Happens all the time, after all. Makes the current state of affairs less aggravating.
I’ll always wonder what Brown could have accomplished with Brady and Edelman but the bright side here is that Meyers and Harry will get a lot more development. The 2020+ WR corp will be better off because of it. I’m getting really getting excited about Meyers. He is learning a new position and offense and has already contributed meaningful amounts of production.
 

Super Nomario

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Gordon was a roster spot though, right?

Richards and Tomlinson left to make way for Sanu & Bethel. JG creates another roster spot and Shaq created some cap space. Based on overall roater strength I don't see JAG street FAs making this roster. Something is afoot (please be AJ Green or Alex Mack).
They're going to need another spot for Harry in a week, so I suspect it is going to be a short-term type guy.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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So, they did just barely enough. Not counting Justin Bethel, this leaves them with about $900,000 in cap space. I would have guessed Bethel’s cap hit to be right around $900,000 for the rest of the year. Maybe a tiny bit under.

If the Patriots have done nothing else, they are probably rolling with the least amount of cap space we have ever seen. Will ever see. They couldn’t even sign practice players. Can’t get through the rest of the year without something else. Hopefully, they will either trade Bennett or get some relief for Bennett or Gordon in a week.
 

DJnVa

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If the Patriots have done nothing else, they are probably rolling with the least amount of cap space we have ever seen. Will ever see. They couldn’t even sign practice players.
$900,000 would be plenty for a practice squad player. The minimum salary is $8000/week.

And the minimum salary for a player on roster is around $500,000.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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$900,000 would be plenty for a practice squad player. The minimum salary is $8000/week.

And the minimum salary for a player on roster is around $500,000.
The 900,000 doesn’t include Bethel. And if you assume we are paying him about what he was making for the Ravens, which is my guess given how fast he signed, it would be just a bit under $900,000.
 

DJnVa

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The 900,000 doesn’t include Bethel. And if you assume we are paying him about what he was making for the Ravens, which is my guess given how fast he signed, it would be just a bit under $900,000.
Yep, I completely missed the Bethel part.

Gotta be something else coming--the Gordon release and potential Bennett deal?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I have to believe that Gordon will be claimed once the Pats waive him after Tuesday, which will give them some breathing room.
Yup, there's a tiny bit of risk there -- if he doesn't get waived as I understand an article I read last night by the OTC guy he is actually eligible for termination pay, which means that without a claim, the Patriots are on the hook. But, yeah, someone is going to claim him unless there's some news that's going to drop. The other path to cap relief, which could actually happen before Tuesday I think, is an injury settlement with Gordon. Not sure he would go for that, since it would mean sitting out for three more weeks. Also (and I'm not 100 percent sure of this) I think it makes him a FA and the Patriots would have to worry about where he goes. Waivers seems relatively safer, because it's unlikely he would make it to the Patriots' primary AFC opponents.
 

lexrageorge

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Yup, there's a tiny bit of risk there -- if he doesn't get waived as I understand an article I read last night by the OTC guy he is actually eligible for termination pay, which means that without a claim, the Patriots are on the hook. But, yeah, someone is going to claim him unless there's some news that's going to drop. The other path to cap relief, which could actually happen before Tuesday I think, is an injury settlement with Gordon. Not sure he would go for that, since it would mean sitting out for three more weeks. Also (and I'm not 100 percent sure of this) I think it makes him a FA and the Patriots would have to worry about where he goes. Waivers seems relatively safer, because it's unlikely he would make it to the Patriots' primary AFC opponents.
I tend to use "the Pats know what they're doing" position when it comes to the cap and roster management, so my guess is that they've looked at the risks and were willing to live with them. After all, the Pats could have shopped him around on the trade market if they really wanted to move on from him; I'm sure they could have gotten a 6th or 7th for him from an NFC team looking for a rental. Or they could have made him a game day inactive and waived or traded him next week.

I agree that there are some risks: he goes unclaimed; or his injury is actually worse than reported and he stays on IR; or he files a grievance for some reason (assuming he can; not sure about that).
 

BaseballJones

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Let's say this roster is what they have to work with. I think it's enough to win a SB with. The question is, what happens if there's another injury and they need to acquire another player? They'll have to go through more cap machinations to fit another guy on the roster, right?
 

lexrageorge

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Let's say this roster is what they have to work with. I think it's enough to win a SB with. The question is, what happens if there's another injury and they need to acquire another player? They'll have to go through more cap machinations to fit another guy on the roster, right?
A player on their practice squad would be paid a pro-rated amount of the $480K minimum if he's promoted to the varsity roster. That goes up to ~$900K for a veteran injury replacement. At this point in the season, they would need to free up anywhere from $250K to $450K of space to add a player as an injury replacement.

Also should note that there are some injury grievances playing out from training camp cuts. These are routine and happen regularly. But I'm not sure if those are being counted in Miguel's numbers. If they are not, there could be a situation where they need to free up additional space. I don't know enough of the details to judge the likelihood, so any corrections to my assumptions are welcome. I know the Globe mentioned some of them in one of last week's notebook updates.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I tend to use "the Pats know what they're doing" position when it comes to the cap and roster management, so my guess is that they've looked at the risks and were willing to live with them. After all, the Pats could have shopped him around on the trade market if they really wanted to move on from him; I'm sure they could have gotten a 6th or 7th for him from an NFC team looking for a rental. Or they could have made him a game day inactive and waived or traded him next week.

I agree that there are some risks: he goes unclaimed; or his injury is actually worse than reported and he stays on IR; or he files a grievance for some reason (assuming he can; not sure about that).
I think that's the right way to look at it. One possible interpretation of the last 72 hours or so is that they had a plan, were probably ready to go with it and roll with a couple hundred thousand in cap space and no Tomlinson, but then Justin Bethel fell in their laps and they had to scramble a bit to incorporate that. Bill wasn't going to not make that work. Maybe that forced the Gordon situation.

A player on their practice squad would be paid a pro-rated amount of the $480K minimum if he's promoted to the varsity roster. That goes up to ~$900K for a veteran injury replacement. At this point in the season, they would need to free up anywhere from $250K to $450K of space to add a player as an injury replacement.

Also should note that there are some injury grievances playing out from training camp cuts. These are routine and happen regularly. But I'm not sure if those are being counted in Miguel's numbers. If they are not, there could be a situation where they need to free up additional space. I don't know enough of the details to judge the likelihood, so any corrections to my assumptions are welcome. I know the Globe mentioned some of them in one of last week's notebook updates.
Miguel noted that they reached two injury settlements last week and his $10k number incorporates them, but I'm not sure if there were others.
 

Super Nomario

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Extending Devin McCourty is the most obvious way to clear space, but it's also something where if it hasn't happened yet, maybe it's not going to. They could convert some of Hightower's salary to bonus and free up a couple mill.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Falcons lose again. Bryant is a UFA after the year. $750,000 cap hit for the rest of the year. Any reason they wouldn’t trade him at this point?
 

Ferm Sheller

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Cajuste had surgery in March with an expected 3 month return period. I wonder what’s up with him. Unlike the guys on IR, they can activate him at any time, no?
 

DJnVa

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Falcons lose again. Bryant is a UFA after the year. $750,000 cap hit for the rest of the year. Any reason they wouldn’t trade him at this point?
Matt Bryant? He's 9 of 14 on FGs kicking for a team that plays in a Dome. Not sure he's an upgrade.
 

lexrageorge

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Cajuste had surgery in March with an expected 3 month return period. I wonder what’s up with him. Unlike the guys on IR, they can activate him at any time, no?
Cajuste was eligible to be activated after Week 6, so that is correct. He is also eligible to begin practicing without requiring the Pats to open up a roster spot; once he practices with the team, the 21-day clock starts by which he must be activated or placed on season ending IR. Also, I think he has to be activated by Week 11 or be placed on IR regardless of when he starts practicing.

It's quite possible he had a setback medically. What's concerning is that he did have 2 knee injuries in college.

The other issue is that he had zero reps in training camp, which will make it difficult for him to come in and contribute. He could practice for 3 weeks, but even then he would still be quite far behind. The window for him to start practicing will likely close after the bye week.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Matt Bryant? He's 9 of 14 on FGs kicking for a team that plays in a Dome. Not sure he's an upgrade.
Four of the five misses have been over 50, and he’s made a couple of those, which Nugent can’t do. I think his stats are a bit lopsided. I don’t know if there is a stat for longest average field goal attempted, but they have been asking him to kick long ones. Plus, I thought Bailey looked a bit shaky in kickoffs in weather yesterday. It would be nice to let our punter go back to punting and holding duties.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Cajuste was eligible to be activated after Week 6, so that is correct. He is also eligible to begin practicing without requiring the Pats to open up a roster spot; once he practices with the team, the 21-day clock starts by which he must be activated or placed on season ending IR. Also, I think he has to be activated by Week 11 or be placed on IR regardless of when he starts practicing.

It's quite possible he had a setback medically. What's concerning is that he did have 2 knee injuries in college.

The other issue is that he had zero reps in training camp, which will make it difficult for him to come in and contribute. He could practice for 3 weeks, but even then he would still be quite far behind. The window for him to start practicing will likely close after the bye week.
Thanks. It seems like maybe we won’t see him until next year if he’s not practicing this week.
 

InstaFace

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we need an "effective FG%" stat that adjusts for the distance and indoors/outdoors of each one that they've attempted, like True Shooting % in basketball.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Tomorrow will be a pretty big day. We will see if Wynn is ready to practice, whether Harry is ready to be activated, whether Izzo or Lacosse can practice, and whether Mason can practice, and it’s also the trade deadline day.
 

BaseballJones

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I still think the OL is by far the most important area to shore up. I presume Wynn will come back healthy. They need Cannon and Mason to play to their level. Thuney is a rock. Center with Karras is a problem, but I don't know how they fix it. If the OL gets back to being above average, this team has enough weapons to be a top 5 offense. Combine that with the #1 defense and I'll happily take my chances against anyone. But if the OL doesn't improve, they'll have a lot of trouble with good defenses.
 

Shelterdog

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I still think the OL is by far the most important area to shore up. I presume Wynn will come back healthy. They need Cannon and Mason to play to their level. Thuney is a rock. Center with Karras is a problem, but I don't know how they fix it. If the OL gets back to being above average, this team has enough weapons to be a top 5 offense. Combine that with the #1 defense and I'll happily take my chances against anyone. But if the OL doesn't improve, they'll have a lot of trouble with good defenses.
I'm with you. I'm just not seeing the same game that other fans are seeing in the running game; I'm seeing Michel getting killed rather than Michel hesitate like most observors are seeing. If the OL doesn't get it's act together this could be a short postseason run no matter how good the D is.