2019 Notre Dame Football: Wake up the echoes, chapter 31

[cornwalls@6]

Long time Irish football fan(thanks a lot, Dad). One game into the 2019 season, and I'm neither impressed nor optimistic by what I saw Monday night. Defense, though it settled down and played fairly well, looks small and not very physical. Their front 7 would get steam-rolled by 'Bama or Clemson, and I fear will get the same from Georgia in a couple of weeks. While Book has been a fairly productive and winning QB so far, I still have major doubts about his ability to recognize and hit down field throws. Though they are a little dinged up right now, backs, receivers, and tight ends are a strength of the team. And they do have some depth and talent at the DE/edge rusher position. Particularly Okwara. They have a very manageable home schedule, but with their 3 toughest games(Georgia, Michigan, and Stanford) on the road, 10-2/9-3 seems like a realistic goal. Overall though, they are not in the same neighborhood as the top 4-5 teams in the country. Again. 1988 is a long time ago, and I'm starting to make peace with the idea that will be the last national championship I see in my lifetime. Anyway, post your ND thoughts, complaints, rants, etc. here(haters welcome!!).

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think the main concern with Book is less the deep throws (though that was a clear weakness at the end of last year and does need to be addressed) and more that there seems to be some regression in areas that were previously strengths, like good reads and accuracy on short throws.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

1988 is a long time ago, and I'm starting to make peace with the idea that will be the last national championship I see in my lifetime.

I don't know what's prompted that now, given that ND seem consistently really good for the first time since Lou Holtz left.

Sure, they're a step below the cream of the SEC and Oklahoma, but as far as I can tell they're maybe a hair below Ohio State as the best program outside the former Confederacy. Am I forgetting anyone?

 

[cornwalls@6]

I don't know what's prompted that now, given that ND seem consistently really good for the first time since Lou Holtz left.

Sure, they're a step below the cream of the SEC and Oklahoma, but as far as I can tell they're maybe a hair below Ohio State as the best program outside the former Confederacy. Am I forgetting anyone?

Kelly's done a good job on balance, and they are a consistently good team. But my comment was about winning the national championship, and I don't think they are close to being able to beat the bolded programs, also including Clemson now, as evidenced by their recent performance against them in the playoffs, and the national championship game against Alabama a few years back. They didn't belong on the same field in either instance. They're a very good program again, and I'll always enjoy following them. But 31 years is a long time, and I think it's fair to wonder if there has been a permanent shift in the power structure of CFB, which makes it less and less likely that they will get back to the very top of the sport. Obviously, I would love to be wrong about that.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Kelly's done a good job on balance, and they are a consistently good team. But my comment was about winning the national championship, and I don't think they are close to being able to beat the bolded programs, also including Clemson now, as evidenced by their recent performance against them in the playoffs, and the national championship game against Alabama a few years back. They didn't belong on the same field in either instance. They're a very good program again, and I'll always enjoy following them. But 31 years is a long time, and I think it's fair to wonder if there has been a permanent shift in the power structure of CFB, which makes it less and less likely that they will get back to the very top of the sport. Obviously, I would love to be wrong about that.

I think there has, but also that the institution of a playoff means they're always in with a shot of getting hot at the right time, like Ohio State did a few years ago.

 

[Vinho Tinto]

Am I forgetting anyone?

Barry Alvarez left Notre Dame for Wisconsin and built it into a program that has been a tick above for at least 20 years. Oregon and USC were well above Notre Dame, but they've taken big steps back and are now behind.

As long as Kelly runs Notre Dame, they will be fine. He recruits and coaches at a pretty high level and his teams are usually good to watch.

 

[loshjott]

I don't know what's prompted that now, given that ND seem consistently really good for the first time since Lou Holtz left.

Sure, they're a step below the cream of the SEC and Oklahoma, but as far as I can tell they're maybe a hair below Ohio State as the best program outside the former Confederacy. Am I forgetting anyone?

So you're saying if the Confederacy successfully secedes then ND has a chance?

 

[berniecarbo1]

My take on ND over the last few years, and probably this year...they are the best of the rest. They are not good enough to hang with Bama, Clemson, Georgia or Oklahoma (I guess we will see as to Georgia in a few weeks) but are better and in many instances much better than the rest of FBS. A typical ND game over the last 2-3 years has been a relatively tight first half with the opponent either leading or trailing at the half by a touchdown or less, and then ND pulls away in the second half. Appears to be the MO of a BK coached team. Based on their makeup and the schedule, I see them going 5-1 up to the break and winning the games in very similar fashion to what we saw on Monday, and losing to Georgia, by about 10 points in Athens. As for the second half, I see them continuing in similar fashion and going 5-1 as well, being tripped up at the end of the year at Stanford., Again I see it being fairly methodical in that they will be up 14-10 or 17-14 at the half in all of these games (yes even Bowling Green) and pulling away to win by a score of 35-17, 42-24 or something like that. They end up 10-2, probably ranked #10-12 and playing either in a NY6 bowl or in a high end Tier I bowl someplace.

To me, ND runs the table every 3-5 years and makes the playoffs. They also lay an egg every 9-10 years or so. They essentially need to win out to get there. Once they lose., they are playing for an NY6 bowl slot. Their seasons are pretty predictable. Overall they do really well, but they are predictable.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Another fail in a big, national litmus test game. Maddening. Kelly just can’t get them over the hump in these games. That was there for the taking last night, as I don’t think Georgia was quite on their A game. And they still couldn’t make the couple of plays that would’ve made the difference. I’m reading some moral victory, ND belongs in the conversation stuff online this morning. I’m not buying it. I think last night effectively eliminated them from the playoffs. And this is where not being in a conference, and not having a conference championship game to redeem an early season loss, really hurts them.

 

[Vinho Tinto]

I don’t expect Notre Dame to finish 11-1, so the playoff talk will be moot; but they played very well on defense for a majority of the game. The offensive line penalties should have sunk them. It was a credit to the defense that they had a chance to steal a win late.

Danielson made some bizarre points late (like applauding Kirby Smart’s decision to kick the 43 yard field goal), but he correctly noted that Notre Dame’s receivers were gassed on the final drive.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

If Georgia takes care of business, 11-1 with a one-score loss at UGA would definitely put them in the conversation. But I agree that Notre Dame is a program that needs to be beyond moral victories.

 

[BigMike]

If Georgia takes care of business, 11-1 with a one-score loss at UGA would definitely put them in the conversation. But I agree that Notre Dame is a program that needs to be beyond moral victories.

It's possible.

Clemson will be there; although if they lose a game with their schedule they should be out.
Obviously SEC 1 will be there
Big10 1 will be there assuming they get through with no more than 1 loss
Big12 1 is a lock if undefeated, and a maybe with 1 loss

ND won't jump over a 1 loss big 10 champion, and is no more than a maybe against a 1 loss Big12 champion.
And if UGA, LSU or Bama end up as a 1 loss non champion in the SEC they absolutely jump over ND (and probably over a 1

I guess ND best chance is that Georgia runs the table and goes undefeated through the SEC title game.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Though I think there's going to be too much of a traffic jam of undefeated and one loss teams for ND to have more than an outside chance at the playoffs, and the Georgia game looks less and less like a"good loss", tomorrow night against Meechigan is huge, and the last chance for the Irish to make a case for the selection committee. And I don't think a late, close win is good enough. A sound, no doubt about it beating is required. Then hope for some serious SEC, and Big 10 cannibalism. Oklahoma and Clemson look like mortal locks to me.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Oklahoma and Clemson look like mortal locks to me.

Heh.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Heh.

Haha. Yup. Things change fast, don’t they? Although tonight is the end of ND’s chances as well.