2019 NFL: News & Transactions

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Contract is a bit high but not as high as it seems. The total deal is 5 years, $90 million. But, the $20 million signing bonus has been paid out already by the Giants so that already cuts the cash owed to him by NE down to 5/70 which is fair value for someone of his ability. However breaking it down even further the meat of the contract owed to OBJ by the Pats would be 3 years/$47 million because the last 2 years the Pats could move on from him, only have $4 million in dead money in 2022(none in 2023), and save $15 million each on the 2022 and 2023 caps.

But why would you want to give up 32, 56, and a great looking young corner to get OBJ on a 3/47 deal when you could just keep those assets and use that money in the free agent market? You might not get an equivalent WR but you could get a really really good player at another position or a WR that gives you 85% of OBJ, etc.

I think we frequently overvalue stars with big contracts. Its all about value-vs-cap-figure and its hard for any non-QB to produce that much surplus value if his cap figure is $15-16M, unless he is a generational player in the Watt, Miller, Mack mode. Its great to have those players on your team but not so great that you want to pay through the nose in other assets to make it happen.

 

[dcmissle]

The final chapter of this story ends with Brady throwing a SB winning TD pass to either Antonio Brown or OBJ. Just not sure who at this point.

I’m serious about really testing the Steelers with a fair and full offer for AB. Even if they take that offer back to Buffalo, who winds up paying through the nose. Pittsburgh obviously struggling with this.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I’m serious about really testing the Steelers with a fair and full offer for AB. Even if they take that offer back to Buffalo, who winds up paying through the nose.

Rosenhaus apparently let the Bills know that Brown wouldn't go there, even with a restructured deal.

 

[tims4wins]

The final chapter of this story ends with Brady throwing a SB winning TD pass to either Antonio Brown or OBJ. Just not sure who at this point.

Fuck that, they need their 44-3 blowout

 

[pappymojo]

I love that the Antonio Brown/Mr. Big Chest drama has grown so big that it can ensnare the Bills in it's bubble of embarrassment.

 

[rodderick]

I’m serious about really testing the Steelers with a fair and full offer for AB. Even if they take that offer back to Buffalo, who winds up paying through the nose. Pittsburgh obviously struggling with this.

At this point, offer a third round pick, if nothing else than for Brown to know there's a Patriots offer on the table. I want this mess to get as big as possible for the Steelers.

 

[dcmissle]

Rosenhaus apparently let the Bills know that Brown wouldn't go there, even with a restructured deal.

He sure as hell would come here, and I’m not sure the Pats would have to do more than fully guarantee the 3 for 36 left on his deal. Then they’d be out from under the contract in his age 34 season.

And from Pittsburgh’s perspective, the team would have every reason to believe they could take 32 and 56 (for example) and turn them into two very productive WRs — or a WR and a RB. That’s what they do, extremely well.

Fear on their end probably wins out, but I’d force on them this very uncomfortable choice. Everyone else is probably trying to steal him.

Edit. I’m not saying I’d go to 32 and 56, but I’d certainly go to 32 and something if I could get AB here fully committed and ready to go to work.

 

[E5 Yaz]

He sure as hell would come here, and I’m not sure the Pats would have to do more than fully guarantee the 3 for 36 left on his deal. Then they’d be out from under the contract in his age 34 season.

And from Pittsburgh’s perspective, the team would have every reason to believe they could take 32 and 56 (for example) and turn them into two very productive WRs — or a WR and a RB. That’s what they do, extremely well.

Fear on their end probably wins out, but I’d force on them this very uncomfortable choice. Everyone else is probably trying to steal him.

Edit. I’m not saying I’d go to 32 and 56, but I’d certainly go to 32 and something if I could get AB here fully committed and ready to go to work.

i just hesitate on 32, because there'll be a player there that some team really wants ... and i'd hate to lose the chance to get an extra pick, or a 1 in 2020.

and 56, of course, is going for Rosen

 

[dcmissle]

It’s remarkable the degree to which people are buying the notion that Rosen can be had for a 3rd.

People here, even some smart ones, in the wake trading for Keenum, think Washington created leverage with Arizona. “We’ll show you, Ari, we’re not THAT desperate anymore. Hell yeah!”

Stupid. NE is in a great spot for Rosen if the Pats like him. Some team with draft ammo will like him.

 

[DJnVa]

The less expensive, the better. AJ Green has averaged 14 games a season over an 8-year career. Over a 5-year career, OBJ has missed a quarter of the Giants' games, and the last two years, has missed half of them.

In the last 3 seasons Green has missed more than a quarter of Cincy's games.

Last 3 seasons:
Green: 35 games played
OBJ: 32 games played

So, yeah Green still a bit more durable, but it's closer than it might seem. But Green *is* cheaper and that's a big consideration.

 

[jsinger121]

 

[BaseballJones]

Wouldn't mind a reunion.

 

[dcmissle]

In the last 3 seasons Green has missed more than a quarter of Cincy's games.

Last 3 seasons:
Green: 35 games played
OBJ: 32 games played

So, yeah Green still a bit more durable, but it's closer than it might seem. But Green *is* cheaper and that's a big consideration.

If this is true, and not just a reason to kill a trade to Buffalo, AB off the table.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/08/report-one-team-was-told-antonio-brown-wants-to-be-highest-paid-wr-in-league/

 

[tims4wins]

Weddle to Rams. Barron replacement?

 

[dcmissle]

Weddle to Rams. Barron replacement?

Really happy for him. Been a pleasure watching him past few years. True pro and great teammate.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Patriots' cap space after the Bennett deal should be 17.85m.

How exactly would they pay OBJ?

If AJ Green really were available, I'm sure they could find a way to do something creative to make $11.5m work for the last year but that would be their last significant move of the offseason, unless they traded someone away with a big salary or unless Gronk retires.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Patriots' cap space after the Bennett deal should be 17.85m.

How exactly would they pay OBJ?

If AJ Green really were available, I'm sure they could find a way to do something creative to make $11.5m work for the last year but that would be their last significant move of the offseason, unless they traded someone away with a big salary or unless Gronk retires.

Any Brady extension is going to open up cap space.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[tims4wins]

They were last night too.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They were last night too.

Dulac is a local beat writer. I'd tend to think he knows what's going on.

 

[tims4wins]

They were last night too.

I’d think the NFL Network guys would too. Guess we’ll see.

 

[Red Averages]

Field Yates:

Antonio Brown on his Instagram live: "Hey I'm about to announce my new team in like a little bit alright... Something positive is about to be happening real soon, trust me. Stay by the phone... Big announcement coming soon. Big announcement coming soon! Mr. Big Checks."

As talks heat up, worth noting that a friend of AB's was heard saying in this video: "You've already got your black and gray on." Raiders have certainly been in the mix throughout this process.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Dulac says in his story that 3 teams are "still alive" in AB talks.
https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2019/03/08/antonio-brown-trade-rumors-steelers/stories/201903080137

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Any Brady extension is going to open up cap space.

It looks to me from the CBA that they can't until August but even if they could, pencil it out for me. Give me a way that we could free up $17 million for one player.

Between the Jones RFA tender (which should come in 5 days), and just looking at kicker and punter and nothing else, they ain't got it. Not close.

 

[RedOctober3829]

It looks to me from the CBA that they can't until August but even if they could, pencil it out for me. Give me a way that we could free up $17 million for one player.

Between the Jones RFA tender (which should come in 5 days), and just looking at kicker and punter and nothing else, they ain't got it. Not close.

They can do an extension whenever they want because Brady didn't get more money in his deal at the time they restructured back in August. So, they can do an extension whenever. Tough to say how much space under the '19 cap they can open up without seeing the exact details of the extension. Miguel seems to think it's at least $5 million. Other extension candidates with larger cap holds that could get lowered are DMC, Gronk, and Van Noy, . They also could cut Clayborn which opens up $3 million. If they can get a replacement cheaper than Marcus Cannon, they could trade him post-June 1 and gain another $6 million. There are plenty of ways to open up more cap space. It doesn't mean they'd get someone like Beckham, but if they wanted to make a modest move they could.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

They can do an extension whenever they want because Brady didn't get more money in his deal at the time they restructured back in August. So, they can do an extension whenever. Tough to say how much space under the '19 cap they can open up without seeing the exact details of the extension. Miguel seems to think it's at least $5 million. Other extension candidates with larger cap holds that could get lowered are DMC, Gronk, and Van Noy, . They also could cut Clayborn which opens up $3 million. If they can get a replacement cheaper than Marcus Cannon, they could trade him post-June 1 and gain another $6 million. There are plenty of ways to open up more cap space. It doesn't mean they'd get someone like Beckham, but if they wanted to make a modest move they could.

A modest move, sure. I have no doubt that if they really got creative they could find a way to make AJ Green work on a 1 year $11 million deal. Not a $17 million player with a long term contract though.

I'm not sure where Miguel gets the $5 million number, but it seems like the very top of what could be done with Brady if the Patriots were willing to really kick the can down the road and do a Drew Brees type of move with him. Even if Brady agreed to no new money, no new signing bonus, and to earn only the league minimum salary for the next two years, his cap hit this year would be $17.7 million. So, assuming a two-year extension, the top savings possible is $9.3 million, and I think it's very unlikely Brady is going to agree to no new money and to a veteran minimum deal. So, possibly $5 million, but I think we're talking a few million tops. After that, it's Clayborn, and not much else. Maybe a bit here or there but not millions, certainly. Cannon would be desperation and not something that they can do in the near future anyway.

There is just not the same kind of flexibility this year that they have had in prior years. It's a tough combination of several high cap space players who may not have many years left being in the last year of their deals with accumulated amortized money sitting there.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[tims4wins]

Thanks for a couple good seasons

 

[Super Nomario]

A modest move, sure. I have no doubt that if they really got creative they could find a way to make AJ Green work on a 1 year $11 million deal. Not a $17 million player with a long term contract though.

I would argue the opposite - a multi-year deal gives the team more options to structure the contract with a low year one hit and extend some of the other hits down the road. For instance, Gilmore's cap hit has been less than $9 MM in the first two years of his deal (AAV $13 MM). Gronk's cap hit was under $7 MM in in 2016 and 2017, and jumped to over $11 MM for last year and this one. Some teams structure their contracts even more dramatically to reduce early-year hits. A one-year deal, you are kind of stuck with the cap space you have that year (though there's still some room for creativity, as in the Pats' deal with Revis).

And while there are drawbacks to that approach - eventually you have to pay up - I think the Patriots are well-positioned to sign / take on a big deal this year because a) Gronk and McCourty are coming off the books after this year. The Patriots are currently 6th in effective cap space for 2020 with $100 MM (though only 24 players under contract) and b) the 2016 and 2017 drafts have been disasters and it doesn't look like there are any players to give big extensions out of that group.

There is just not the same kind of flexibility this year that they have had in prior years. It's a tough combination of several high cap space players who may not have many years left being in the last year of their deals with accumulated amortized money sitting there.

I agree with this. I think taking a longer time horizon, there is more flexibility, though once Brady's extension is done, that's going to suck up a chunk of that.

 

[tims4wins]

2 / $7M. Kind of surprised he isn't back on the Pats at that number.

 

[MillarTime]

Wonder if Bennett #2 is coming

 

[RedOctober3829]

Chiefs and former Jaguars’ RB Carlos Hyde reached agreement today on a one-year deal, per source. One more RB for the Chiefs.

 

[Seels]

I think Hyde stinks and actively makes the teams around him worse. Have to imagine a 4th/5th round pick gives more production than him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think Hyde stinks and actively makes the teams around him worse.

And you base this on ...

 

[tims4wins]

And you base this on ...

Entered league in 2014, to SF. SF was 12-4 in 2013, fell to 8-8 in 2014, then 5-11 2015, then 2-14...
Went to Cleveland in 2018, they went 2-3-1 with him, then 5-5 without him...
Went to Jacksonville later in 2018, they went 3-3 before his arrival, 2-8 after he joined...

I mean, it's mostly coincidental, but every team he has been on has been worse off with him than without, it seems.

 

[rodderick]

Entered league in 2014, to SF. SF was 12-4 in 2013, fell to 8-8 in 2014, then 5-11 2015, then 2-14...
Went to Cleveland in 2018, they went 2-3-1 with him, then 5-5 without him...
Went to Jacksonville later in 2018, they went 3-3 before his arrival, 2-8 after he joined...

I mean, it's mostly coincidental, but every team he has been on has been worse off with him than without, it seems.

More like 100% coincidental considering we're talking about a running back who has averaged 138 rushing attempts per season. Don't think he's influencing teams W/L records.

 

[tims4wins]

More like 100% coincidental considering we're talking about a running back who has averaged 138 rushing attempts per season. Don't think he's influencing teams W/L records.

Well yeah. I was just giving some "evidence" on why he might have posted what he did. Trading for a veteran RB seems really dumb though.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Not to mention, they still need another WR, a LT, some help at LB....just a strong hard pass here on prima diva WRs at huge numbers here, but ymmv.

 

[pappymojo]

Well yeah. I was just giving some "evidence" on why he might have posted what he did. Trading for a veteran RB seems really dumb though.

The Chiefs didn't trade for Hyde. He was released by the Jags and signed with the Chiefs. No draft capital spent. No impact on the calculation for comp picks.

 

[Seels]

And you base this on ...

Him having awful ypc rates throughout his career, being bad from both PFF and FO, getting traded or cut by some of the worst teams in football.

 

[soxhop411]

He is a raider

Rapport says for a third and a fifth in 2019.

 

[nattysez]

Hard to imagine Steelers are not getting more than this.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

A 3 & a 5 and an extension of 3/54 with only $30M guaranteed?


Oh my god I might never wear pants again.

Robbery

I love Mike Mayock.

 

[bosockboy]

Still keep 4 picks in top 35. Pretty big win for Raiders.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

So Cooper & the #66 & #141 for Brown and the #27


Both of them are going to make around $18M per with a $15Mish cap number.


The difference in draft value between the picks is the equivalent of the #52 pick to the Raiders.

Hell to the yeah.

 

[bosockboy]

So Cooper & the #66 & #141 for Brown and the #27


Both of them are going to make around $18M per with a $15Mish cap number.


The difference in draft value between the picks is the equivalent of the #52 pick to the Raiders.

Hell to the yeah.

That and Brown is worlds better. On to CJ Mosley.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Gregg Rosenthal with a semi-funny:

Brown's new contract is for three years and $50.125M with a maximum value of $54.125M, according to Rapoport. (That's roughly $12 million more than his old contract called for.) He will receive $30.125M guaranteed, which is $30.125M more than he was due to receive from the Steelers.

 

[snowmanny]

So Cooper & the #66 & #141 for Brown and the #27


Both of them are going to make around $18M per with a $15Mish cap number.


The difference in draft value between the picks is the equivalent of the #52 pick to the Raiders.

Hell to the yeah.

The problem with calling this a great deal for the Raiders is that it implies Dallas must have fucked up.

And that can’t possibly be right.

I guess the Boys got Cooper this past year, made it to the Divisional round with him, and saved Jason Garrett’s job. So they can feel good about that.

Anyway, very good job by Oakland.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

The problem with calling this a great deal for the Raiders is that it implies Dallas must have fucked up.

And that can’t possibly be right.

I guess the Boys got Cooper this past year, made it to the Divisional round with him, and saved Jason Garrett’s job. So they can feel good about that.

Anyway, very good job by Oakland.

Dallas didn't make the horrible deal here. Pittsburgh did.

 

[snowmanny]

No argument from me.