2019 NCAA Pool

Dan Murfman

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2001
3,487
Pawcatuck
My school is still irrelevant but the pool must go on. Same as the last few years. $20 entry fee. Same payment methods and added Apple Pay. And once again on the site it says no PayPal but feel free to to use it. Send payments to dcinct@gmail.com.

The site is at murphysmarchmadness.com as opposed to .net. Any questions let me know.
 

bostonbeerbelly

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 26, 2008
1,914
San Fran
Awesome I will be in for a few will paypal for all at once probably close to deadline, if you want to limit paypals I have no problem sending in a check like I have done in the past.
 

Dan Murfman

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2001
3,487
Pawcatuck
PayPal is fine. Just don't reference pool or March Madness. They shut me down a few years ago. But I had a PayPal button right on the site. Last couple of years when it's just limited to here and just sending it to me it's worked okay.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,615
Okay, I paid last week and did my 2 entries and am contemplating another...
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,615
Just sent in another $20 (sent 2 last week, so I need to go make a 3rd bracket).
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,615
Interesting that today more than half of pool picked #13 seed UC-Irvine to win and #12 Oregon to win.

Based on the entries of folks with the same champ I have, it looks like the important games for me today are VCU over UCF, Cincy over Iowa, and Washington over Utah St. (I hate this pick).
 

The Needler

lurker
Dec 7, 2016
1,742
I don’t see the payout structure on the website. It should be published as part of the rules. Should’ve been before play began, but definitely ASAP.

Likely or possible winners (who surely won’t include me) shouldn’t have to wait until the Final Four to learn after an ad hoc decision that if they come in first, they’ll only get 30% of the pool, or if they come in third they get nothing, or whatever the case may be.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
21,994
Hingham, MA
I don’t see the payout structure on the website. It should be published as part of the rules. Should’ve been before play began, but definitely ASAP.

Likely or possible winners (who surely won’t include me) shouldn’t have to wait until the Final Four to learn after an ad hoc decision that if they come in first, they’ll only get 30% of the pool, or if they come in third they get nothing, or whatever the case may be.
Historically it has been 60-30-10
 

B H Kim

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 24, 2003
4,739
Washington, DC
Well, my annual pool strategy of trying to pick the longest shot (but still somewhat plausible) overall champ didn’t quite pay off this year. Thanks, Iowa State.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,155
In Top-20 but only hope to gain with the late round chalk is with OK beating VA, Irvine beating Oregon and then Irvine over OK. Need this perfect storm out of one venue to have a chance for the win.
 
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DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,615
Yeah, last year I had a bad day 2 and thought I was out and wasn't.

This year I had a bad day 2 and my best entry is like 200. So, uh....damn.
 

The Needler

lurker
Dec 7, 2016
1,742
The leaders are there on the back of the correct mathematical strategy of picking every 11 and 12 seed to win its first game. 11 and 12 seeds historically win about 35% of the time, so, because of the bonus, by picking an 11 to win, you have an EV of 2.1 points (.35*6), compared to an EV of only .65 of a point picking the 6. For the 5/12 matchups, the EV discrepancy is 2.8 (.35*8) to .65.

Unless you have some inside info that one team is throwing the game, it’s way too risky to pick the Lower seed.
 

bostonbeerbelly

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 26, 2008
1,914
San Fran
Picking 9-12 seeds - went 11-5
Picking 1-4 seeds to advance to the sweet 16 went 14-2

Andrew Nelson played this exact strategy and is sitting tied for 9th.

I kind of wish he kept this strategy going and picked top 2 seeds in each bracket to advance, and then all number 1's to advance.

I would guess this would be almost the most optimal strategy a computer would generate based on EV with upset picks.
 

The Needler

lurker
Dec 7, 2016
1,742
Picking 9-12 seeds - went 11-5
Picking 1-4 seeds to advance to the sweet 16 went 14-2

Andrew Nelson played this exact strategy and is sitting tied for 9th.

I kind of wish he kept this strategy going and picked top 2 seeds in each bracket to advance, and then all number 1's to advance.

I would guess this would be almost the most optimal strategy a computer would generate based on EV with upset picks.
No, because this year was an outlier with chalk advancing in the second round. 3-seeds and 4-seeds in particular make the Sweet 16 only around 50% of the time each, while 11s and 12s make it about 15% of the time. In the second round itself, 11s and 12s actually win 43% of the time when they make it there, giving the 12 an EV of almost 4 points in the second round (2+8 for beating the 4)*.43*.80(4s get upset in the first round 20%) + (2*.43*.20) = 3.64 EV. Compared to just around .57 for the 3 and 4. Of course, the 3 and 4 do have a better chance of advancing in the next round -they make it there 25 and 15% of the time respectively, and win 49% and 33% of the times they make it to the Sweet 16, so there is some implied value, but not enough to overcome the massive EV edge for the 11s and 12s in the second round.

So again considering the bonus, im pretty sure it is the correct play to pick every 5 and 6 seed to advance to the Sweet 16.