Conventional wisdom seems to hold that it's better for the C's if the pick rolls over to 2020, when it's top-6 protected, or 2021, when it's unprotected, but I'm not convinced.From: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26092152/nba-draft-lottery-deep-dive-rankings-odds-intel
Grizzlies-Celtics
The Grizzlies owe their pick to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight. If not conveyed, the pick falls to top-six protected in 2020 and then becomes unprotected in 2021.
Kings-Celtics-76ers
- Chances Memphis keeps its pick: 55.6 percent
- Chances Boston gets a top-10 pick from Memphis this year: 43.2 percent
The Kings owe their pick to the Celtics unprotected, but the 76ers will get the selection if this becomes the No. 1 pick. In that scenario, Boston would get Philadelphia's pick.
- Chances Philadelphia gets the No. 1 pick from Sacramento: 1.0 percent
- Chances Boston gets a top-four pick from Sacramento: 3.8 percent
So...do we want the Memphis pick to come to Boston this year, or is it preferable to wait til 2020 or even 2021?
The Grizzlies' whole identity is based on grit and competitiveness, and it's hard for me to see them going full-on tank. Who's to say they won't rebuild around Jackson and Conley and end up with, say, the No. 12 pick in 2020 and something better than that in 2021? We saw with the Kings this season that teams sometimes far exceed expectations.
Now, is a top-6 protected 2020 pick a better trade chip than the No. 9 pick in what's seen as a weak 2019 draft? Maybe so.