2019 Draft

oumbi

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I wouldn’t hate that at all. Well, depending on which pick they’d use. I had forgot about him because he’s not on a lot of mocks, but he’s an Ainge-type guy- strong, athletic potential 3&D guy with some ability to create. Smallish for a combo guard, but can defend PGs and his strength his strength helps him D up bigger guys. Reminds me of Oni from Yale. Similar frame and numbers, except Davis was putting them up against much better competition.

Apparently he’s been one of the big risers since the combine after he performed really well in the shooting drills.
In case any one is interested in learning more about Davis, here is an article. College stats indicated an athlete who can play defense. 3 point shooting was poor until his senior year, when it was 37%ish.

enjoy...

https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/17/2019-nba-draft-prospect-terence-davis-i-bring-a-football-mentality/
 

benhogan

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I love what I have read about Hayes. (of course I loved what I read about TL).

For all the gurus who will be the better pro?

Is there any type of 5 man rotation that would work with both?
I can't imagine those two on the floor at the same time. Both are rim protectors that can defend on the perimeter. Hayes did shoot 74% from FT line, and he is new to the game, so there is hope.

I'm more inclined to take my personal favorite, PJ Washington, at 14. But BIGs are not really in demand so if Hayes slipped to 20 or 22, I would not be shocked if Danny grabbed him. My hope is Brad plays Al Horford at the 4 (big wing) more. So I Iike the idea of the Celtics grabbing two or three cheap 4 or 5s in the draft & free agency while moving on from Yabu, MaMo, and Theis(if he gets more than $2MM/yr)
 
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chilidawg

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I can't imagine those two on the floor at the same time. Both are rim protectors that can defend on the perimeter. Hayes did shoot 74% from FT line, and he is new to the game, so there is hope.

I'm more inclined to take my personal favorite, PJ Washington, at 14. But BIGs are not really in demand so if Hayes slipped to 20 or 22, I would not be shocked if Danny grabbed him. My hope is Brad plays Al Horford at the 4 (big wing) more. So I Iike the idea of the Celtics grabbing two or three cheap 4 or 5s in the draft or free agency while moving on from Yabu, MaMo, and Theis(if he gets more than $2MM/yr)
I'd certainly agree that you wouldn't want to play Hayes and TL together much, but there's no reason they can't both be on the roster together. Odds of them both developing into starter level players are thin, so you're doubling your odds that at least one of them will. Hayes I think is a little more polished offensively and might have more value than TL at the same stage. Most mocks have consistently had Hayes in the 8-10 range so I don't see him dropping into the 20's.

I don't get the Washington love at the same draft slot as Hayes. He's undersized, so he's really got to develop a perimeter offense and defense game to have value. It's all about length these days (although there's always guys like PJ Tucker to prove every theory wrong).
 
May 14, 2015
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I’m curious about the Bol Bol love in this thread. He doesn’t seem like he’ll hold up physically in the NBA. By that I mean he’ll likely always be an injury risk and he’s going to have a much harder time defending stronger players (everyone from Eric Gordon to Embiid) and quicker players (an even bigger bucket). Yeah, the shooting is nice, but when is he ever going to be able to actualize that skill?

I would not be excited about that pick, even at 22. I think there are a lot more reasonable two-way contributors who could be available in the early 20s. Am I missing something with Bol?
 

Big John

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Bol Bol is skilled-- he's 7-2 and was shooting over 50% from beyond the arc before he got hurt--but he'a also a huge injury risk. He had a navicular bone stress fracture in January. Has he recovered enough to allow teams to work him out before the draft? I haven't seen any news on that.
 

benhogan

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I'd certainly agree that you wouldn't want to play Hayes and TL together much, but there's no reason they can't both be on the roster together. Odds of them both developing into starter level players are thin, so you're doubling your odds that at least one of them will. Hayes I think is a little more polished offensively and might have more value than TL at the same stage. Most mocks have consistently had Hayes in the 8-10 range so I don't see him dropping into the 20's.

I don't get the Washington love at the same draft slot as Hayes. He's undersized, so he's really got to develop a perimeter offense and defense game to have value. It's all about length these days (although there's always guys like PJ Tucker to prove every theory wrong).
I'm guilty of having a bias towards Kentucky players. They have to play with other great players and within Cal's program, so there is a level of discipline they must learn while sharing the spotlight. UK plays on a big stage, a tough schedule and the players go hard in practice every day against future NBA players. IMHO Calipari gets his players prepared for the NBA like no other program.

PJ had massive improvement from Freshman to Sophmore year, so his game is on the uptrend. 11.5 BPM his Sophmore year

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/pj-washington-1.html

I liked this write up:
Solidly built and strong power forward who is very skilled offensively in multiple facets ... He is long and has excellent instincts on the offensive end ... Washington has natural strength and the type of body that could withstand the physicality of NBA level play ... He has broad shoulders, 7'2" wingspan and a wide base yet still has good agility and is fluid on his feet ... On offense, Washington can do a bit of everything ... He can score in the post, using his strength to bully opponents ... He is particularly adept at getting to his jump hook over his left shoulder, which he makes at a very high rate ... He also has solid leaping ability, allowing him to make plays above the rim ... He also has an advanced mid-range game and is a lights-out shooter from the elbow and all around the key ... His range has also expanded this season, as he shot 42.3% from 3-point range in his sophomore season ... His mechanics are excellent and he has a high release point ... Washington’s passing ability stands out for a power forward and he can initiate the offense from the high post and shows advanced court vision for a big man ... Washington has a mature understanding of the game and shows great polish and refinement for such a young player ... His awareness on the court and his knowledge of the game make him a glue-guy who helps the team win, even when he's not filling up the stat sheet ... His skill and leadership was a big reason for Kentucky’s season that fell just short of the Final Four ...

The Ringer mock first noted Jaxson Hayes slipping into the 20s, due to a lack of demand for Centers, not really my call, but could see it happening.
 

nighthob

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I’m curious about the Bol Bol love in this thread. He doesn’t seem like he’ll hold up physically in the NBA. By that I mean he’ll likely always be an injury risk and he’s going to have a much harder time defending stronger players (everyone from Eric Gordon to Embiid) and quicker players (an even bigger bucket). Yeah, the shooting is nice, but when is he ever going to be able to actualize that skill?

I would not be excited about that pick, even at 22. I think there are a lot more reasonable two-way contributors who could be available in the early 20s. Am I missing something with Bol?
No, everyone looks at the three point shooting, which is nice, but he can't defend anywhere. Maybe he develops into a backup C in 4-6 years, but he looks like a classic no-floor/low-ceiling prospect. If you're going that route you may as well try swapping #22 for a second rounder, picking up a future pick, and then drafting Jontay Porter, who at least looks like he might be able to defend the paint.
 

Big John

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No, everyone looks at the three point shooting, which is nice, but he can't defend anywhere. Maybe he develops into a backup C in 4-6 years, but he looks like a classic no-floor/low-ceiling prospect. If you're going that route you may as well try swapping #22 for a second rounder, picking up a future pick, and then drafting Jontay Porter, who at least looks like he might be able to defend the paint.
I wouldn't draft him either, but that's a little harsh, don't you think? He has a post game and can put in on the floor. And if you look at games he played before his injury (e.g. the game against Syracuse at MSG), he contributed defensively as well, both on the glass and as a shot blocker. Obviously he needs to put on weight, but he's not the no floor/no ceiling prospect that you describe.

But he could be out of the league in a very few years with bad feet. His injury is the one that caused Yao Ming's early retirement and Embiid to miss his first two years. By the time he bulks up to 245-250 he may not be able to walk.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I’m curious about the Bol Bol love in this thread. He doesn’t seem like he’ll hold up physically in the NBA. By that I mean he’ll likely always be an injury risk and he’s going to have a much harder time defending stronger players (everyone from Eric Gordon to Embiid) and quicker players (an even bigger bucket). Yeah, the shooting is nice, but when is he ever going to be able to actualize that skill?

I would not be excited about that pick, even at 22. I think there are a lot more reasonable two-way contributors who could be available in the early 20s. Am I missing something with Bol?
He's a huge risk physically, no question (though a lot less of one than Johntay Porter, given the family genetics there---isn't it two brothers and two sisters none of whom have functionining bodies?) And he doesn't fit anyone's picture of any particular role right now, which is obviously a question. But what I find interesting is a couple things, which look to be elite skills/tools you don't often find after the top few picks:

1. He is an elite shot-blocker. He's going to need to get stronger to be a good post defender in NBA, but weakside help counts too.

2. He is an elite 3 point shooter. That's huge, and a fit for the Celtics needs.

3. He is freakishly quick for his height. So is Thon Maker, and it's useless wtih him but it's a tool and if he's healthy (obviously a big if) it's a lot easier to see him playing a real role given the overall athleticism than it would be without it

There's huge questions physically and in terms of how he'll play in the NBA. It's not clear he knows how to pass, either. But he has more elite tools/skills than anyone likely to be picked behind him, and that matters too. This is, to me, a situation where you gotta think hard about what a guy is and not just what he isn't.

In my mind, the Celtics don't need three solid rotation players, they need to get one impact guy from this draft. That doesn't necessarily mean "take three throws at the dartboard" but I'll be disappointed if they don't take at least one shot. Bol Bol is an interesting guy to take a shot on.
 

Kliq

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I think everyone that is high on Bol is also acknowledging that he is a risky pick, but those are often the kind of guys who end up turning into steals later in the first round. Having a player that can protect the rim AND stretch the floor is a rare commodity in the NBA; and Bol has the athletic potential to also be able to move laterally well enough to avoid being exploited in the pick and roll. I also think that big guys that are that fluid and coordinated have greater potential to improve their game as they get older. Another thing I like about him is that he doesn't foul that much, which is rare for a young shot-blocker.

It also counts for something that in his limited time playing college basketball, he looked really good as a freshman, averaging 21-10 with nearly 3 bpg and shot 56/52/75. Yes, that was against non-conference competition, but he was having a really good season before he got hurt.

 

EL Jeffe

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Yeah, I do like Bol more than ehmunro gives him credit for. Sure, Bol can shoot - but his offensive game is a lot more than that. He scores from all three levels and plays like an aggressive, alpha scorer who looks for his shot. I was expecting a Skal Labissiere type, but Bol isn't that guy. He'll need to add muscle and figure out where hit fits-in in an NBA defense (pick and roll, rotations, etc.) but with his offensive game, he's got a chance to be a really interesting offense player. There's some Embiid stuff to him, both from the medicals to his scoring talent, but he's quite a ways off from that. I have no idea where Bol is with his foot but I'd be fine with the Celtics using a pick on him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Depends on who is available but I probably don’t take Bol at 14 but would absolutely take a shot at 20 or 22. My guess is he falls somewhere in between our picks so Ainge would probably have to use 14 to get him.

It would be great if Ainge could replicate his awesome 2004 draft where he had 15/24/25 and turned that into a young big with upside (Big Al) and 2 ready-to-go upper classmen (Delonte/Tony Allen).

Bol is a big question mark but he has some real upside and there are a lot of potential contributors in that 20-22 range.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m curious about the Bol Bol love in this thread. He doesn’t seem like he’ll hold up physically in the NBA. By that I mean he’ll likely always be an injury risk and he’s going to have a much harder time defending stronger players (everyone from Eric Gordon to Embiid) and quicker players (an even bigger bucket). Yeah, the shooting is nice, but when is he ever going to be able to actualize that skill?

I would not be excited about that pick, even at 22. I think there are a lot more reasonable two-way contributors who could be available in the early 20s. Am I missing something with Bol?
I posted my evaluation of Bol last winter. No need to hammer the poor kid any more than I already did as his strength/body/skillset doesn't translate to NBA success as a star or as a role player any more than Thon Maker. He's is also as much of an anti-Ainge type of pick as I can imagine.My heart hurts for the team that drafts him and expects anything more than sticking him on the end of the bench or in a suit. His father was a good man.

Edit: What ehmunro said.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Admiral Schofield seems like a fit with the Celtics as well. I can see him going in the 20s.
Ojeleye is one of the more popular comps for Schofield, and not just because of the physical resemblance and combat muscles. Semi’s a bit bigger, Admiral relies more on the mid range and hardly ever got to the line in college. Both good on ball defenders who can spot up, but don’t do much else on offense and don’t generate a lot of stocks on D. Schofield’s also a really high character guy. He said the other day that Marcus Smart is one of his favorite players and wants to come to Boston so he can take him under his wing. I don’t think he offers a lot of upside, so I’d rather have one of the Terences (Mann or Davis) or Paschall for a 3&D type, but he’s another body to throw at elite wings and he’ll work his ass off to get better.

Regarding Bol, not that there was much doubt, but it’s clear that Ainge thinks strength is really important. It’s hard to think of elite non-PGs who are below average strength for their respective positions. The guys who came in with strength concerns and became successful- Giannis, Porzingis, Durant, Gobert- all had outlier skills but still bulked up considerably before becoming great. Bol has the skills, but if you don’t think he has the frame to add a considerable amount of strength, then he’ll be a limited player.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Ojeleye is one of the more popular comps for Schofield, and not just because of the physical resemblance and combat muscles. Semi’s a bit bigger, Admiral relies more on the mid range and hardly ever got to the line in college. Both good on ball defenders who can spot up, but don’t do much else on offense and don’t generate a lot of stocks on D. Schofield’s also a really high character guy. He said the other day that Marcus Smart is one of his favorite players and wants to come to Boston so he can take him under his wing. I don’t think he offers a lot of upside, so I’d rather have one of the Terences (Mann or Davis) or Paschall for a 3&D type, but he’s another body to throw at elite wings and he’ll work his ass off to get better.

Regarding Bol, not that there was much doubt, but it’s clear that Ainge thinks strength is really important. It’s hard to think of elite non-PGs who are below average strength for their respective positions. The guys who came in with strength concerns and became successful- Giannis, Porzingis, Durant, Gobert- all had outlier skills but still bulked up considerably before becoming great. Bol has the skills, but if you don’t think he has the frame to add a considerable amount of strength, then he’ll be a limited player.
I agree that's Ainge's MO. All I'd note is that the development of the guys you name also suggest he might adjust for the right skillset.
 

the moops

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I think Semi could still turn into something. Probably not on this Celtics team, but I can see him carving out more minutes somewhere else
 

Big John

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Dylan Windler at No. 22?
Why not? He's a left-handed Gordon Hayward 2.0. Indiana kid, smart player. Maybe Kyle Korver is a better comp than Hayward, because Windler will likely struggle on defense.

I'm glad to see Jalen Lecque-- who turned down a scholarship from NC State to stay in the draft-- getting some love from the guys at the Ringer. Huge upside, and he'll probably go somewhere in the 50s.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Wouldn’t shock me. I’ve been banging on this draft as weak, but the more I look at it the deeper it appears to me. I do think it’s weak from 4-9, but it really flattens out to the point where a bunch of guys I like (PJ Washington, Grant Williams, Goga, Thybulle, Claxton, Fernando) will be there in the 20s, and a handful (Okeke, Mann, Davis, Jerome, Cam Johnson, Iggy, Samanic, Sirvydis) of interesting guys in the second round. Not a bad draft to have the picks that the Celtics have.
 

Jimbodandy

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around the way
I think Semi could still turn into something. Probably not on this Celtics team, but I can see him carving out more minutes somewhere else
I agree with you. He'll get rotation minutes in this league before he hangs it up someday. He works his ass off and has a great motor to go with good athleticism. Might be another couple of years and stops before he grows enough and has the right team.
 

BJBossman

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I'd take Bol at 14. Would jump up and down to get him at 20.

Weight can be added. Let's not forget he lost the weight due to injury, which is another concern. All enough to justify passing. But again, a big analytics guy.
 

BJBossman

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The guy I really want with their last first rounder is Chuma Okeke.

He's not gonna be a star, but he's got PJ Tucker type written all over him. That has serious value in this era of hoops.
 

nighthob

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Wouldn’t shock me. I’ve been banging on this draft as weak, but the more I look at it the deeper it appears to me. I do think it’s weak from 4-9, but it really flattens out to the point where a bunch of guys I like (PJ Washington, Grant Williams, Goga, Thybulle, Claxton, Fernando) will be there in the 20s, and a handful (Okeke, Mann, Davis, Jerome, Cam Johnson, Iggy, Samanic, Sirvydis) of interesting guys in the second round. Not a bad draft to have the picks that the Celtics have.
I always like to say that there are two types of draft depth, starter-level talent (like 2017) and then just rotational depth. And I've been saying for a while that 2019 falls into the latter category. There are going to be a surprising number of guys from this pool still in the NBA 8-10 years from now.

Someone like Windler is never going to be a starter (or if he is your team likely either has real problems or salary cap issues), but he was one really elite skill that's going to keep him around for a decade or more. So with the potential of a general roster clearance coming up, it's not bad for Boston to be logging 20, 22, and 51, because they could genuinely turn up legit rotation guys at all three slots.
 

nighthob

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The guy I really want with their last first rounder is Chuma Okeke.

He's not gonna be a star, but he's got PJ Tucker type written all over him. That has serious value in this era of hoops.
I've listed him as one of my #22 targets for a while. He's the definition of the pace & space PF, right down to floor spacing. Barring injuries he's going to be a mid-rotation player for a long time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The guy I really want with their last first rounder is Chuma Okeke.

He's not gonna be a star, but he's got PJ Tucker type written all over him. That has serious value in this era of hoops.
Yes he’s going to be good value for someone down there. At #22 we’ll have one of the first cracks at him too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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From Brian Robb:

Austin Ainge on impact of having three top-22 picks: "It really is evaluating a lot of the same group for all three picks, right? Not any of us can distinguish between 14 and 22 at this point, for the most part. It's a lot of the same guys for all of those picks and workouts."
 

BigSoxFan

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Herro reminds me of Kevin Huerter (19th pick in 2018), who had a nice rookie season for the Hawks (All-Rookie 2nd team).
Herro wouldn't be a bad pick at 20 or 22. I still like PJ Washington the best out of the Kentucky Three.
Keldon seems to be dropping a bit.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We know Herro can shoot unguarded as his 93% FT numbers indicate along with his pristine mechanics. I’m concerned his 35% on 3’s are a product of his alligator arms which would be a hindrance shooting over length and give him trouble getting his shot off at the next level. Defensively that lack of wingspan is going to limit his upside. He doesn’t really do enough else to get me excited about his game anymore than a Nik Stauskas did and I hated how his game translated when he came out. Not a fan.
 

DrewDawg

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We know Herro can shoot unguarded as his 93% FT numbers indicate along with his pristine mechanics. I’m concerned his 35% on 3’s are a product of his alligator arms which would be a hindrance shooting over length and give him trouble getting his shot off at the next level.
Kinda like Luka.

I KID, I KID!! :)
 

128

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We know Herro can shoot unguarded as his 93% FT numbers indicate along with his pristine mechanics. I’m concerned his 35% on 3’s are a product of his alligator arms which would be a hindrance shooting over length and give him trouble getting his shot off at the next level. Defensively that lack of wingspan is going to limit his upside. He doesn’t really do enough else to get me excited about his game anymore than a Nik Stauskas did and I hated how his game translated when he came out. Not a fan.
J.J. Redick's alligator arms haven't really held him back in the NBA, at least at the offensive end.
 

HomeRunBaker

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J.J. Redick's alligator arms haven't really held him back in the NBA, at least at the offensive end.
You can always find a one-off and exceptions if you go through a data of players. You can find guys like this later on once they have established a niche in the league there is no need to burn a pick on them.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I’ll just put in a plug for Sam Vecenie’s Game Theory podcast for anyone interested in getting into the weeds on sine of these guys, particularly when he has Cole Zwicker from the Stepien as a guest. They disagree enough to make it interesting.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/game-theory-podcast/id1054081827?i=1000440635146

Interesting to hear them both say that Bol has some well-known character concerns. Both guys are plugged in and do a ton of legwork with players, coaches, scouts and film. Quality content for draft stuff.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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We know Herro can shoot unguarded as his 93% FT numbers indicate along with his pristine mechanics. I’m concerned his 35% on 3’s are a product of his alligator arms which would be a hindrance shooting over length and give him trouble getting his shot off at the next level. Defensively that lack of wingspan is going to limit his upside. He doesn’t really do enough else to get me excited about his game anymore than a Nik Stauskas did and I hated how his game translated when he came out. Not a fan.
When you say "alligator arms" are you referring to wingspan or something else? Because Stauskas had something like a 6'8" wingspan (measured 6'5.25" without shoes) but Herro is a bit taller (6'6" without shoes) but has a 6'10" wingspan.

Interestingly enough Reddick at one time was the only NBA player whose wingspan was shorter than his height.

Just curious.
 

benhogan

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Here is Pelton's complete list:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26719470/nba-draft-stats-scouting-rankings-top-lottery-prospects

Probably the strangest ranking I've seen as of yet.

Dedric Lawson #9 and Shamorie Ponds #11
There's a good chance those two are available when the Celtics pick in the 2nd round
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Oh. I guess this is wrong then: http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/tyler-herro.html.

Forget about it.
“You” weren’t wrong. There was a “scouting report” by an “analyst” who talked about Herro’s length as a positive while listing his wingspan at 6-10. This “expert” obviously never watches Herro at UK or else an alarm would have went off as he wrote this no matter where he received his info.

Does anyone know where you can find Herro’s 3-point shooting pct when wide open versus contested and versus tightly contested? He seems like a player whose success shooting is predicated on the defensive pressure.