2019 Draft Megathread

wade boggs chicken dinner

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“You” weren’t wrong. There was a “scouting report” by an “analyst” who talked about Herro’s length as a positive while listing his wingspan at 6-10. This “expert” obviously never watches Herro at UK or else an alarm would have went off as he wrote this no matter where he received his info.

Does anyone know where you can find Herro’s 3-point shooting pct when wide open versus contested and versus tightly contested? He seems like a player whose success shooting is predicated on the defensive pressure.
I think you would need a subscription to Synergy sports.

Here are some advanced stats for Herro and other shooting guards: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832458-ranking-top-10-shooting-guards-in-2019-nba-draft. It's interesting how many of these guys lack "explosivess".
 

BJBossman

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Here is Pelton's complete list:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26719470/nba-draft-stats-scouting-rankings-top-lottery-prospects

Probably the strangest ranking I've seen as of yet.

Dedric Lawson #9 and Shamorie Ponds #11
There's a good chance those two are available when the Celtics pick in the 2nd round
It's an interesting statistical model.

There's one on ESPN insider that has Hayes and Davis as top 3 players based on % of being an all star, starter, bench or bust. It's a wild list. Really makes you think. Really bucks the consensus.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Pelton’s stats only model had Jaylen Brown 101st and he ultimately ranked him as a late 1st rounder.

Wings have it fairly tough in college. It’s all about bigs and ball handlers and if a guy like Jaylen needs NBA spacing to blossom he’s not going to get it in college, and a model isn’t really going to account for it.

I don’t know anything about most prospects this year but approach everything with eyes wide open. There have been some pretty big whiffs in the last few years at or near the top.
 

nighthob

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Two guys with wingspans long enough that Danny might need to be restrained to keep from drafting them, Louis King and KZ Okpala. I won’t be the least surprised to hear one of their names called at 20/22 given the 7’+ wingspans and the standing reach for both guys. Especially Okpala as he seems the more explosive of the two.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Two guys with wingspans long enough that Danny might need to be restrained to keep from drafting them, Louis King and KZ Okpala. I won’t be the least surprised to hear one of their names called at 20/22 given the 7’+ wingspans and the standing reach for both guys. Especially Okpala as he seems the more explosive of the two.
They worked him out yesterday, along with Brandon Clarke (take him at 14 if he's there, wingspan be damned, the kid can play), Grant Williams (I'm a little bit more worried about his game translating, but I'd bet on the smarts and skills, Paschall and Darius Bazley, who should have "raw but intriguing" stamped on his forehead at this point.

Regarding Okpala, he's one of the guys discussed on the podcast I linked earlier- Vecenie likes him, Zwicker not so much due to concerns about his general feel/BBIQ, loose handle, and meh shooting. Vecenie, who seems to know himpersonally pretty well, counters that he's a great kid, really smart off the court, incredibly hard-working, and has a game that will really benefit from the increased space of the NBA so he'd gamble on KZ figuring it out. Plus Stanford was a shit-show that didn't maximize his talent. Based on combine results alone, he'll be a first rounder. Very similar size to Trevor Ariza, with the frame to add strength. Prototypical small-ball four.

Celtics are working out Ky Bowman, Carsen Edwards, Iggy Brazdeikas, Nas Little and Dylan Windler today. I really wonder who they're going to fall in love with. So many possibilities...
 

DannyDarwinism

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Alen Smailagic is one of the youngest players in the draft (he'll be 19 in August), and was the youngest player in G League history this year, where he put up some impressive steal and block numbers for the Warriors affiliate, Santa Cruz. Apparently he's a binkie of Kent Lacob, Joe's kid and Santa Cruz GM They shut him down for the Winter Showcase (G-League scouting event), which pissed off a bunch of people and basically led everyone to believe that the Warriors were trying to hide him so they could draft him themselves with their #58 pick, which had the Streisand Effect of thereby focusing attention on the kid to see what the fuss is about. He's a 6'10 energy big with range and decent athleticism, but very raw. Interesting developmental potential to be a switchable stretch big. Apparently has supreme confidence and wants to be great. Would be fun to take him at #51 to stick it to the Warriors, but he's got legitimate upside for a guy expected to be there late in the second.

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/03/alen-smailagic-upside/
 

chilidawg

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Tankathon has Goga, Porter and Horton-Tucker, with Dedric Lawson at 51. I like Porter at 20, Goga I can see, don't get the other 2.
 

E5 Yaz

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Anybody think they take a flier on Bol Bol? Good chance he busts, but a possible impact player if he recovers from injury.
My issue with it is that he'll likely be off the board by their second pick. So they'd have to take him at 14 ... and I don't know if you'd want to take him there, since there's a chance someone is sitting there they didn't expect.
 

Jimbodandy

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Assuming Morris and at least one of Rozier/Irving are gone, I think that it's unlikely that they take 3 projects in the first round. Especially if AD trade isn't agreed in principle. Guys who have glaring weaknesses or are more dice rolls like Bol and Porter, maybe you can take one of those guys but not 2-3. They will need rotation bodies.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Anybody think they take a flier on Bol Bol? Good chance he busts, but a possible impact player if he recovers from injury.
Given that his two biggest question marks (outside of the foot concerns) are strength and competitiveness/commitment - things that Ainge seems to value comparatively highly, I'd be surprised if he’s a target. But then again, he’s a mobile seven footer with a handle who can shoot the everloving shit out of the ball, so I dunno.
 

EL Jeffe

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I'm not a Brandon Clarke fan. 6'8", short arms, over-aged...I just don't see it. I don't think he's got NBA length to check 4s, and I don't see the skills, vision or offensive instincts to be a productive wing. He strikes me as an athletic, energy bench player with some 3&D potential (but with limitations on the D part of that equation due to his length; switch-ability will probably be limited).
 

DannyDarwinism

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I'm not a Brandon Clarke fan. 6'8", short arms, over-aged...I just don't see it. I don't think he's got NBA length to check 4s, and I don't see the skills, vision or offensive instincts to be a productive wing. He strikes me as an athletic, energy bench player with some 3&D potential (but with limitations on the D part of that equation due to his length; switch-ability will probably be limited).
I think the argument is pretty simple; short version is that he was one of the best college players in the country on a good team and he'll immediately be one of the most athletic guys in the NBA. Longer version is that he has elite defensive awareness- he's a good on-ball defender and great off-ball, and an efficient, if limited, offensive player who really excels as a roll-man. His one plus offensive skill is finishing- he has excellent touch around the basket. Out of the 14 college players to put up BPM > 15, his 69.9 TS% second only to Zion's 70.3%.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=pts_per_g&c1stat=bpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=15&order_by=pts

A lot will depend on his jump shot, which he reworked after transferring and the numbers are a least trending in the right direction. If it doesn't improve significantly, he's a hard guy to play due to spacing concerns, but if he does, I think he's pretty much a surefire starter, with possible All-NBA defense on the wing as his upside. The length I'm less concerned about. He'll struggle to defend bigger PFs (though he is strong enough to provide some resistance) but his perimeter and help defense will be an asset. At the stage he's projected to go, I'd take a gamble on him improving his shot over the concerns some of the other guys have.
 

chilidawg

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This guy on Celtics Blog has an outside the consensus take on the 22-30 prospects in the draft. He makes a good case for his opinions IMO.

 

tbb345

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If DaQuan Jeffries is still there at 51 I think he's the pick. He checks all of the boxes of a normal Danny Ainge pick. Can defend multiple positions, has some upside as a 3&D wing, hard worker, looks like he spends time at the Ojeleye Factory.
 

DannyDarwinism

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This guy on Celtics Blog has an outside the consensus take on the 22-30 prospects in the draft. He makes a good case for his opinions IMO.

Carlin is doing good for Celticsblog, I like his stuff. I was initially right around where he is on Sekou, but I'm coming around, purely based on age, shooting and athleticism. It'd be great if he knew how to play basketball, but he doesn't turn 19 for another 6 months.Given how raw he is, that might mean he doesn't return value much value under his rookie contract, so the team that selects him will have to have to be patient, and go in knowing there's a chance he simply never figures it out. Physically, he reminds me more of OG Anunoby than the more popular comp Siakam, who was also 3.5 years older coming out of New Mexico State.

Regarding Smailagic, you have to wonder if what went down with Golden State over the past couple of days has changed their outlook on him. Harder to justify rolling the dice on a project when you'll need guys who can play immediately.
 

gingerbreadmann

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Celtics are working out Hofstra's Justin Wright-Foreman today. He is a premier scoring guard who would be a nice bench piece. I've seen him play a few times and he's the real deal.
This is JWF's second workout with the C's. I've also seen him play several times and love to watch him go to work. Danny Ainge took a flier on another CAA scoring guard in the second round, Marcus Thornton in 2015, so there is precedent here. Ainge was also spotted in Matthews Arena earlier this year when NU ended Hofstra's 16-game winning streak. Would not be shocked to see him at 51.
 

amfox1

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Recent mocks:

National
ESPN.com mock - 14 Herro, 20 Bol, 22 Kabengele, 51 Oni
CBS Sports mock (Boone) - 14 Bitadze, 20 K.Johnson, 22 Kabengele, 51 Oni
NBAdraft.net mock - 14 Herro, 20 Bol, 22 Claxton, 51 Horton-Tucker
Sporting News mock - 14 Washington, 20 Horton-Tucker, 22 K.Johnson
TheRinger.com mock - 14 Alexander-Walker, 20 Bol, 22 Jerome, 51 Cheatham

Local
NESN mock - 14 Herro, 20 Porter, Jr., 22 Okpala
MassLive.com mock - 14 Herro, 20 Porter, Jr., 22 Bazley
NBA Sports Boston mock - 14 Herro, 20 K.Johnson, 22 Bitadze

Other
NBA Sports Chicago mock - 14 Hachimura, 20 Bitadze, 22, Porter, Jr.
NBA Sports SF mock - 14 Doumbouya, 20 Bitadze, 22 Okpala



Listed in multiple mocks
50% Herro
40% Bitadze
30% K.Johnson, Bol, Porter, Jr.
20% Kabengele, Okpala
 

nighthob

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Celtics are working out Hofstra's Justin Wright-Foreman today. He is a premier scoring guard who would be a nice bench piece. I've seen him play a few times and he's the real deal.
They’ve had he and Jalen Lecque in for multiple workouts, I can live with either at 51 even though they’re both long-term prospects.
 

nighthob

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Recent mocks:

National
ESPN.com mock - 14 Herro, 20 Bol, 22 Kabengele, 51 Oni
CBS Sports mock (Boone) - 14 Bitadze, 20 K.Johnson, 22 Kabengele, 51 Oni
NBAdraft.net mock - 14 Herro, 20 Bol, 22 Claxton, 51 Horton-Tucker
Sporting News mock - 14 Washington, 20 Horton-Tucker, 22 K.Johnson
TheRinger.com mock - 14 Alexander-Walker, 20 Bol, 22 Jerome, 51 Cheatham

Local
NESN mock - 14 Herro, 20 Porter, Jr., 22 Okpala
MassLive.com mock - 14 Herro, 20 Porter, Jr., 22 Bazley
NBA Sports Boston mock - 14 Herro, 20 K.Johnson, 22 Bitadze

Other
NBA Sports Chicago mock - 14 Hachimura, 20 Bitadze, 22, Porter, Jr.
NBA Sports SF mock - 14 Doumbouya, 20 Bitadze, 22 Okpala
I’d be stunned if Doumbouya was there at 14. Okpala’s an interesting prospect, he’s got all the physicals to be a modern NBA F, he’s long, athletic, has a good frame that should be able to carry 230-240, but there’s just something missing upstairs. He’s sort of a poor man’s Cam Reddish, he’s bright and has all the physical tools, but it just doesn’t translate into dominance. But if he puts it all together he’ll be a heckuva good player.
 

chilidawg

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I just don't get Herro at 14, can't get the memory of Auburn just attacking him on D over and over again in the NCAA's with great success. How's he going to defend in the NBA?

I like the CBS mock (Goga, Johnson, Kabengele) or even better the NBA Chicago (Hachimura, Goga, Porter).
 

pjheff

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It would be great if Ainge could replicate his awesome 2004 draft where he had 15/24/25 and turned that into a young big with upside (Big Al) and 2 ready-to-go upper classmen (Delonte/Tony Allen).
Assuming the C’s keep all three picks, that would be a good blueprint. And that draft featured some of Ainge’s signature “types.” By this point, he’s made enough picks that there’s an exception to every rule, but he’s not afraid of a big with a bad body like Jefferson (or Perk) and he loves feisty combo guards such as West and Allen (or Smart). He also scouts over years and seems to look for value due to system fit (Rondo) or injury (Sullivan). He’s not opposed to taking a flier on a late first shotblocker (Melo) or a second round undersized four (Gomes). So who fits those profiles?
 

BigSoxFan

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Assuming the C’s keep all three picks, that would be a good blueprint. And that draft featured some of Ainge’s signature “types.” By this point, he’s made enough picks that there’s an exception to every rule, but he’s not afraid of a big with a bad body like Jefferson (or Perk) and he loves feisty combo guards such as West and Allen (or Smart). He also scouts over years and seems to look for value due to system fit (Rondo) or injury (Sullivan). He’s not opposed to taking a flier on a late first shotblocker (Melo) or a second round undersized four (Gomes). So who fits those profiles?
I think the Big Al comp this year is Goga Bitadze who comes with a polished offensive game and rebounding skills but has lateral quickness and general defense questions.

Ty Jerome could be the Delonte combo scoring guard comp and Thybulle could be Tony Allen defensive wiz.

Coming away with Goga/Jerome/Thybulle would be a solid draft for Ainge. No stars there but some potential contributors right away. Of course, I would probably like to gamble a bit more with one of the picks, especially if Porter Jr is there at 20/22.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Boston, Chicago, Minnesota have all demonstrated interest in trading up to #4 for Darius Garland.


I like the idea, but what's the point for NO? Maybe they have a trade in the works but feel the #4 pick is too rich?
Your answer may be here, as it looks like NO is considering options to move back and pick up additional assets. The more interesting part of the article, however, is the rumor that NO is looking at trading up from 4 to 2 in order to take RJ Barrett, best friend of Zion.

I wonder what it would take to move up from 4 to 2? Ingram? One of the Lakers picks? Both?
 

benhogan

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What would be the cost for #2 pick for the Celtics to draft Ja Morant?

Memphis gets their pick back
#14
#22
TL or Semi

Maybe Memphis can't find a taker for Conley's contract and wants the half dollar and 3 quarters for the dollar.
 

moondog80

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What would be the cost for #2 pick for the Celtics to draft Ja Morant?

Memphis gets their pick back
#14
#22
TL or Semi

Maybe Memphis can't find a taker for Conley's contract and wants the half dollar and 3 quarters for the dollar.
I like that you put an "or" between TL & Semi. Definitely couldn't give *both* of them up in a deal. ;)
 

DrewDawg

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What would be the cost for #2 pick for the Celtics to draft Ja Morant?

Memphis gets their pick back
#14
#22
TL or Semi

Maybe Memphis can't find a taker for Conley's contract and wants the half dollar and 3 quarters for the dollar.
That's likely not even close.

For the Memphis pick to be as valuable as the #2 pick this year, they'd likely have to suck for next 2 years Now, they *might* suck for 2 years, but I can't imagine they'd essentially admit that by trading the #2 for what they would be hoping would be a lower pick 2 years from now. And I don't think #14 and #22 bridge that.
 

E5 Yaz

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If NO trades the 4, doesn't that impact the Lakers cap maneuverability? It seems as though I read somewhere that such a trade locks in the date of the deal, to the Lakers detriment
 

benhogan

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That's likely not even close.

For the Memphis pick to be as valuable as the #2 pick this year, they'd likely have to suck for next 2 years Now, they *might* suck for 2 years, but I can't imagine they'd essentially admit that by trading the #2 for what they would be hoping would be a lower pick 2 years from now. And I don't think #14 and #22 bridge that.
yea but I included Semi :drunk:

If that's not enough I'd rather see Danny move on, and see what the asking price is on Monte Morris (my new binky) from the Nuggets
 
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Kliq

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The Ringer has pronounced Zion the best NBA prospect since LeBron. Is that true? How would you rank the top ten? Going by how good everyone thought they were going to be at the time they were drafted, not by what I personally thought, I'd go:

1. Anthony Davis
2a. Kevin Durant
2b. Greg Oden
4. Zion
5. Derrick Rose
6. KAT
7. Luka
8a. Andrew Wiggins
8b. Jabari Parker
10. Blake Griffin
 

Cellar-Door

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The Ringer has pronounced Zion the best NBA prospect since LeBron. Is that true? How would you rank the top ten? Going by how good everyone thought they were going to be at the time they were drafted, not by what I personally thought, I'd go:

1. Anthony Davis
2a. Kevin Durant
2b. Greg Oden
4. Zion
5. Derrick Rose
6. KAT
7. Luka
8a. Andrew Wiggins
8b. Jabari Parker
10. Blake Griffin
I'd have Zion 2nd, People were down on Durant after he got Barnes'd, and Oden had health concerns. I'd have Griffin higher above Wiggins for sure, Parker off the list and John Wall at about 6th or 7th.
 

Kliq

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I'd have Zion 2nd, People were down on Durant after he got Barnes'd, and Oden had health concerns. I'd have Griffin higher above Wiggins for sure, Parker off the list and John Wall at about 6th or 7th.
Oden had health concerns, but nobody was really shocked he went number one even if there were some vocal Durant supporters. He was also one of the most famous high school players of the last 20 years.

Wiggins and Parker were also both really famous high school players, Wiggins was labeled the next LeBron and Parker was on the cover of Sports Illustrated while still in high school. Things haven't quite worked out for either of them, but they were seen at the time as major, top-of-the-line prospects.
 

moondog80

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I don't think you can put Doncic ahead of two guys who were actually picked ahead of him.
 

bowiac

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Wiggins was a megaprospect in high school ("best prospect since LeBron"), but the shine faded pretty hard by the draft. Embiid was going to go first overall before he got hurt after all.
 

DavidTai

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Yes. Yes you did. By waiting, they would have $32.5M available, enough for a max player.

-Can- New Orleans trade a pick that's not official till the 6th? I thought it would've been officially LA's pick and they'd be picking for NO. If they balk at trading that pick for NO because they can't get another max free agent, things would get really interesting.
 

Cellar-Door

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Oden had health concerns, but nobody was really shocked he went number one even if there were some vocal Durant supporters. He was also one of the most famous high school players of the last 20 years.

Wiggins and Parker were also both really famous high school players, Wiggins was labeled the next LeBron and Parker was on the cover of Sports Illustrated while still in high school. Things haven't quite worked out for either of them, but they were seen at the time as major, top-of-the-line prospects.
It's all degrees, Zion has been a basketball twitter obsession since he was like 13, and he dominated in college in a way Durant didn't really
Wiggins and Parker both lost a lot of shine in college and the leadup to the draft.

other guys who maybe should be on the list: Dwight Howard, Kyrie, Ben Simmons
 

BigSoxFan

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Are we not including LeBron’s fellow 2003 draftees? Because Melo would be on the list and pretty high up.
 

the moops

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Wonder how the relationship with Jaylen is going to be going forward. Was clear in the proclamation that Tatum was not on the table for AD that Brown was the guy they were dangling. If BOS is indeed trying to move up to 4 for Garland, what would those parameters look like?

Brown + Yabu + 20

for

# 4 + Moore
 

the moops

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The Ringer has pronounced Zion the best NBA prospect since LeBron. Is that true? How would you rank the top ten? Going by how good everyone thought they were going to be at the time they were drafted, not by what I personally thought, I'd go:

1. Anthony Davis
2a. Kevin Durant
2b. Greg Oden
4. Zion
5. Derrick Rose
6. KAT
7. Luka
8a. Andrew Wiggins
8b. Jabari Parker
10. Blake Griffin
If it is just what the consensus was, there is no way Durant can be above Oden considering everyone but maybe Ainge would have gone Oden over Durant. Same goes with Luka