2019 Dolphins: Trust the Process

pappymojo

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According to overthecap.com, $10,042,012 of Fitpatrick’s fully-guaranteed, four-year $16,447,768 rookie contract was paid as a signing bonus. That’s just over 61%. When players are traded, signing bonus prorations stay with a player’s original team, meaning that any team receiving Fitzpartick would be getting him for less than 40 cents on the dollar.


If Fitzpatrick were acquired next week, the 2019 cap hit for his new team would be just $1,083,199. His 2020 cap hit would be a meager $1,975,252, and his cap hit in 2021 would be $2,722,878.
Minkah is a valuable asset because he will be cheap for three seasons. The Steelers have been fairly crushed on their cap due to Big Ben and Antonio Brown. (they were crushed in the short term due to Bell last year but got that money back).

One thing I don't fully understand is how the upcoming CBA negotiations factor in to this. The current CBA expires after the 2020 season.

Teams can roll-over unspent salary space into next year's salary but as I understand it, that ends with the conclusion of the 2020 season. I believe that even if the new CBA is basically an updated version of the current CBA, the salary cap process restarts with the 2021 season. In other words, teams can not role over unspent salary space from the 2020 season to the 2021 season. I believe that teams have to spend next year. The teams' average salary for the four-year period (2017 - 2020) must be 89% of their annual salary caps.

Not trying to derail the conversation, just pointing out that the Dolphins won't be able to follow the Browns blue-print of drafting hi-talent players and then making their team a destination for free agents. I think the Dolphins are in a process that will require a much quicker turn-around where they will probably have to overpay free agents first and then hope to hit on their draft picks.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I continue to think this isn't some great masterplan on the part of Ross/Grier/Flores but kind of a series of opportunistic moves that began when the Texans came calling, picked up speed when the team got walloped in historic fashion in the first two weeks, and is continuing now that the talent remaining is wanting out.

Could it work out? Sure -- everything can change in this league if you get a good quarterback. Suddenly, people want to come to play for you (hello, Cleveland). And if you stockpile enough draft picks, only a few of them *need* to work out. But as a lot of people have said, tanking and long rebuilds are really hard in the NFL -- particularly when you add in the need to develop the guys they draft. That won't happen overnight. And in a league that doesn't have guaranteed contracts, I'm not really sure tanking is necessary either.
Whether it was proactive or reactive, it’s an outrageously good job of stockpiling draft assets. The Steelers trade is an outright theft. 9 picks in the first two rounds, a few of which will be top 5. Unreal.
 

sodenj5

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Minkah is a valuable asset because he will be cheap for three seasons. The Steelers have been fairly crushed on their cap due to Big Ben and Antonio Brown. (they were crushed in the short term due to Bell last year but got that money back).

One thing I don't fully understand is how the upcoming CBA negotiations factor in to this. The current CBA expires after the 2020 season.

Teams can roll-over unspent salary space into next year's salary but as I understand it, that ends with the conclusion of the 2020 season. I believe that even if the new CBA is basically an updated version of the current CBA, the salary cap process restarts with the 2021 season. In other words, teams can not role over unspent salary space from the 2020 season to the 2021 season. I believe that teams have to spend next year. The teams' average salary for the four-year period (2017 - 2020) must be 89% of their annual salary caps.

Not trying to derail the conversation, just pointing out that the Dolphins won't be able to follow the Browns blue-print of drafting hi-talent players and then making their team a destination for free agents. I think the Dolphins are in a process that will require a much quicker turn-around where they will probably have to overpay free agents first and then hope to hit on their draft picks.
This is a good point and it’s something Greir addressed today. He said they plan on being aggressive in FA in the 2020 offseason and don’t plan on sitting on a pile of money.

They can go out, get some guys, front load their deals heavily, and wait and see how the CBA shakes out.

Some names that might be of interest:

Brandon Scherff
Rodney Hudson
Joe Thuney
Leonard Williams
Chris Jones
 

rymflaherty

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If I have any issue with the Minkah trade, it’s the same as anything else of late, and that’s how it reflects on Grier and the front office.
Especially if the Grier/Ross rumored draft day exchange is to believed - I’d true, I don’t see how it doesn’t reflect poorly on you when your trading the guy you staked your job on just a year later.
They’ve done a tremendous job acquiring assets...but I have literally no tangible proof that this current front office is going to be capable of turning the theoretical into a reality.

And don’t get me wrong, I’ll still take this gamble over the usual band-aid approach to perpetuate mediocrity, I just wish I had some reason to believe in Grier as someone that’s going to be able to identify talent worthy of these picks.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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With Ben out for the year, that pick may actually be a high one.
This is where I disagree. I do not think the pick will be a top-10 one. Mason Rudolph looked good. It's a decent roster. Most importantly, there are plenty of teams that are much worse.

Having said that, getting even a top-15 pick is a great move by the Miami front office.
 

DeadlySplitter

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sodenj5

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I like the Taco claim. I think he’s a good fit as an OLB in this system. Nothing to lose there.

Rosen starting isn’t a shock. Will be interesting to see how he fares. He has looked better than Fitz at almost every turn.
 

ZMart100

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What the Dolphins are doing is amazing. Through 3 weeks, they are -117 in point differential. That's -39/game. The next worst team in differential are the Jets at -37 total through 3 weeks followed by the Steelers at -36 (what do the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets have in common?). Being 2 points worse per game than the next worst team is overall is astounding. They are a real 0-16 threat.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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What the Dolphins are doing is amazing. Through 3 weeks, they are -117 in point differential. That's -39/game. The next worst team in differential are the Jets at -37 total through 3 weeks followed by the Steelers at -36 (what do the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets have in common?). Being 2 points worse per game than the next worst team is overall is astounding. They are a real 0-16 threat.
That’s astounding and hilarious
 

sodenj5

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Miami is on to their bye week and the season is 25% done.

The more I see of Rosen, the less I think he’s the answer. He didn’t play well yesterday. I think he can be a decent starter for a team some day, but I don’t think he’s a franchise altering talent. I think the Tua train is full steam ahead.

The two other teams presently representing a threat to Miami’s tankdom are Washington and Cincy. Miami plays Washington in what might be the Tua Toilet Bowl. I feel like Cincy will win a few games because they still have some talent and Dalton is playing pretty well. Washington is probably the biggest competition.

A couple of positives:

Raekwon McMillan has been playing at an elite level against the run. He may always be limited in coverage, but he’s a genuine thumper against the run.

Isaiah Prince and Evan Bohem actually played pretty well yesterday, and the O Line in general has played better.

Taco Charlton might have instantly became Miami’s best pass rusher. 2 sacks in 2 games. Obviously very early, but showing signs of playing well and being a good scheme fit
 

tims4wins

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The two other teams presently representing a threat to Miami’s tankdom are Washington and Cincy. Miami plays Washington in what might be the Tua Toilet Bowl. I feel like Cincy will win a few games because they still have some talent and Dalton is playing pretty well. Washington is probably the biggest competition.
On the heels of what happened in Arizona - taking Rosen in the first round, then dumping the coach and taking another QB #1 overall - it would be fascinating if this were to happen again in Washington.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Broncos could enter the tank bowl after Chubb's ACL tear. 0-4 and still have not played the Chargers or Chiefs.
 

rymflaherty

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Early odds I found have the week 6 game vs Washington as a pick’em.
Lucky me, living in Virginia Beach, I’ll get to witness that abomination in its full glory,
That’s going to be an odd viewing experience, as these first 4 games they were so overmatched it didn’t feel like I was openly rooting for them to lose, it felt like an inevitability.
Wish that game was later in the season, a point where other teams have a couple wins and the #1 pick seems like a certainty, then i could root for them to get a win to avoid the 0-16. As it stands it feels like a must lose, to keep the actual goal of this season on track.
 

sodenj5

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Lol. This honestly smells more like trying to protect Rosen’s trade value than anything else.

They can say Fitz gives them the best chance to win Sunday, which he may, but it’s literally pointless switching back and forth. Rosen looked bad last week against a bad team.
 

sodenj5

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Huge, gigantic go fuck yourself goes out to noted Jets fan Mike Greenberg, who has been riding the Dolphins for weeks about intentionally trying to lose games and calling their actions “morally reprehensible.”

Miami still controls their own fate in terms of securing the first pick. They still play the Bengals and the Jets again. Lose out and they get the first pick. Win another and everyone else loses out, and Miami would be somewhere in the top 5.
 

rymflaherty

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Thing is, I think all those other teams are currently playing much worse than Miami, for better or worse...
The fact this team is competing and they no longer look like the worst team in the league bodes well for Flores, the staff, and the teams future, but It’s going to be disappointing after all this if the Dolphins don’t wind up with a top tier QB prospect.


Also, I always assumed head to head played a larger role in draft position, but it was pointed out to me recently that it is far down the list, and strength of schedule is #1, so I’m not sure if Miami really controls their own destiny at this point or not.
 

sodenj5

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Thing is, I think all those other teams are currently playing much worse than Miami, for better or worse...
The fact this team is competing and they no longer look like the worst team in the league bodes well for Flores, the staff, and the teams future, but It’s going to be disappointing after all this if the Dolphins don’t wind up with a top tier QB prospect.


Also, I always assumed head to head played a larger role in draft position, but it was pointed out to me recently that it is far down the list, and strength of schedule is #1, so I’m not sure if Miami really controls their own destiny at this point or not.
Strength of schedule would be in Miami’s favor versus both Cincy and the Jets. Lose out, and they secure the #1 pick 100%.

Hilarious that Miami has gutted their roster and signed dudes off the streets last week and beat the team that hired the QB whisperer for a head coach and signed Le’Veon Bell and CJ Mosley this off-season.

Agree that Miami has looked consistently better the last few weeks, despite not winning. I think they can legitimately beat the Jets again and the Bengals and end up at 3 wins. They would probably be picking third in that scenario, maybe taking QB2 at that point.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Miami’s operation is probably more competent than its counterparts in Cincy, NY, and Washington. They probably have the least talent of the bunch, but not by a wide margin.
 

johnmd20

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Miami’s operation is probably more competent than its counterparts in Cincy, NY, and Washington. They probably have the least talent of the bunch, but not by a wide margin.
Plus, the Fitzy factor cannot be ignored. He's a decent, professional QB. Rosen is lost.
 

rymflaherty

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Strength of schedule would be in Miami’s favor versus both Cincy and the Jets. Lose out, and they secure the #1 pick 100%.

Hilarious that Miami has gutted their roster and signed dudes off the streets last week and beat the team that hired the QB whisperer for a head coach and signed Le’Veon Bell and CJ Mosley this off-season.

Agree that Miami has looked consistently better the last few weeks, despite not winning. I think they can legitimately beat the Jets again and the Bengals and end up at 3 wins. They would probably be picking third in that scenario, maybe taking QB2 at that point.
fwiw, since posting I found a Ringer article that projects (based on future betting odds) the Jets, Bengals and Redskins all to have the strength of schedule advantage over Miami.

In terms of the #1 pick or bust, check back in after next Saturday, depending how that LSU/Bama game goes, there could wind up being two QB’s now worth tanking for. And I hate to be a prisoner of the moment, but it s tough not to be impressed and intrigued by Burrow at this point.
 

sodenj5

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fwiw, since posting I found a Ringer article that projects (based on future betting odds) the Jets, Bengals and Redskins all to have the strength of schedule advantage over Miami.

In terms of the #1 pick or bust, check back in after next Saturday, depending how that LSU/Bama game goes, there could wind up being two QB’s now worth tanking for. And I hate to be a prisoner of the moment, but it s tough not to be impressed and intrigued by Burrow at this point.
I suppose if I had to choose a QB2, I would lean towards Jake Fromm. Maybe not as physically talented as Burrow or Herbert or Tua, but fully capable of throwing the ball to all levels of the field, throwing with accuracy, and seems to grasp the offense he runs at a high level. I think he actually gets underrated because he doesn’t scramble much and doesn’t have a cannon.
 

rymflaherty

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The next two weeks can help Miami, root for the Jets to beat the Giants and then the following week for the Redskins to beat the Jets. That would get both those teams to 2 wins and isn’t implausible.
And along with that, I guess, hope for Ryan Finley to be a spark?
 

sodenj5

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Watching the Alabama-LSU game last night has me downright giddy for Miami’s future.

Tua is still my number one choice. He played impressively basically 3 weeks off of ankle surgery and came up just short. Showed his elite accuracy to all levels of the field and throws such a beautiful, effortless deep ball. He was hitting dudes perfectly in stride, in the hands, 30 yards downfield like it was a shovel pass.

Joe Burrow might be for real? I hadn’t bought in until watching that game last night. He made some impressive throws, showed toughness and a fair amount of unexpected athleticism in the most hostile environment imaginable.

Sprinkle in Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert and Miami is going to have a crack at a very good QB almost regardless of where they finish this season.
 

AlNipper49

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This might be the year when there are four #1 picks. Chase Young is probably the best player in the draft. Tua is your Hollywood pick. Burrow will be the trendy consensus under-rated pick. Herbert may have the best NFL toolset.
It was a very poor year for a Tank for Tua strategy.
 

uncannymanny

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This might be the year when there are four #1 picks. Chase Young is probably the best player in the draft. Tua is your Hollywood pick. Burrow will be the trendy consensus under-rated pick. Herbert may have the best NFL toolset.
It was a very poor year for a Tank for Tua strategy.
Having the choice is still worth more than those wins, depending on your and your competition’s targets, though.
 

sodenj5

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This team has a gutted roster and they have gotten better every week. It’s becoming clear that Miami hired the right man in Flores.
 

rymflaherty

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I found myself analyzing upcoming schedules this morning and I realized that ironically this season somehow now feels like every other Dolphins season the last decade or so.

Only instead of trying to convince ourselves this team is better than it actually is, and plotting how it’s possible for the team to reach a playoff spot that they are destined to fall short of, I’m now trying to convince myself that this team is worse than it actually is and plotting how this team can obtain a top 2 pick that they are destined to fall short of.
 

sodenj5

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I found myself analyzing upcoming schedules this morning and I realized that ironically this season somehow now feels like every other Dolphins season the last decade or so.

Only instead of trying to convince ourselves this team is better than it actually is, and plotting how it’s possible for the team to reach a playoff spot that they are destined to fall short of, I’m now trying to convince myself that this team is worse than it actually is and plotting how this team can obtain a top 2 pick that they are destined to fall short of.
The messed up thing is everyone knew their schedule the first 6 weeks or so was daunting.

Have to assume at this point, Miami will be looking at a trade up scenario if they finish outside of the top 5. Luckily, the teams in the “race” almost all have a QB they’ve recently drafted. Cincy clearly needs one. Washington, NYJ, NYG all have recently drafted QBs. Atlanta, Tampa, and Denver are all teams inside the top 10 that might be looking to trade up for a QB and Miami easily has them trumped in terms of draft capital.

For ha-ha’s let’s do a quick top 5 mock using today’s standings:

1. Cincy-Burrow or Tua
2. Washington- I think it’s highly likely Miami trades up to 2 and selects whichever QB they want. Let’s assume they stay put. They have Haskins. Protect Haskins. Andrew Thomas, LT
3. Giants-Chase Young. Danny Dimes gets a few more years to show he is or isn’t the franchise.
4. Miami- Tua or Burrow.

Again, in real life, I think Miami and Washington switch spots. Both teams still get the players they want and Miami secures their QB without having to gut their entire draft. If Miami starts to drift out of the top 5 and towards the back end of the top 10, it will obviously become more expensive to move up, but I still don’t see another team being able to trump anything Miami can offer to secure whatever QB Cincy passes on.
 

Bergs

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Watching the Alabama-LSU game last night has me downright giddy for Miami’s future.

Tua is still my number one choice. He played impressively basically 3 weeks off of ankle surgery and came up just short. Showed his elite accuracy to all levels of the field and throws such a beautiful, effortless deep ball. He was hitting dudes perfectly in stride, in the hands, 30 yards downfield like it was a shovel pass.

Joe Burrow might be for real? I hadn’t bought in until watching that game last night. He made some impressive throws, showed toughness and a fair amount of unexpected athleticism in the most hostile environment imaginable.

Sprinkle in Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert and Miami is going to have a crack at a very good QB almost regardless of where they finish this season.
Not to pick on you, as the national broadcasters always say some shit like this as well, but Joe Burrow was an all-state basketball player. The guy is an athlete.

Also, I will be absolutely gutted if the Dolphins get him.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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The messed up thing is everyone knew their schedule the first 6 weeks or so was daunting.

Have to assume at this point, Miami will be looking at a trade up scenario if they finish outside of the top 5. Luckily, the teams in the “race” almost all have a QB they’ve recently drafted. Cincy clearly needs one. Washington, NYJ, NYG all have recently drafted QBs. Atlanta, Tampa, and Denver are all teams inside the top 10 that might be looking to trade up for a QB and Miami easily has them trumped in terms of draft capital.

For ha-ha’s let’s do a quick top 5 mock using today’s standings:

1. Cincy-Burrow or Tua
2. Washington- I think it’s highly likely Miami trades up to 2 and selects whichever QB they want. Let’s assume they stay put. They have Haskins. Protect Haskins. Andrew Thomas, LT
3. Giants-Chase Young. Danny Dimes gets a few more years to show he is or isn’t the franchise.
4. Miami- Tua or Burrow.

Again, in real life, I think Miami and Washington switch spots. Both teams still get the players they want and Miami secures their QB without having to gut their entire draft. If Miami starts to drift out of the top 5 and towards the back end of the top 10, it will obviously become more expensive to move up, but I still don’t see another team being able to trump anything Miami can offer to secure whatever QB Cincy passes on.
If the Giants have the chance to draft either Tua or Burrow, I think there's a real chance they pull an Arizona and just do it and trade Jones somewhere.
 

E5 Yaz

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If the Giants have the chance to draft either Tua or Burrow, I think there's a real chance they pull an Arizona and just do it and trade Jones somewhere.
After Gettleman putting himself (and his ego) out there over the Jones pick. I mean, I suppose it's possible, but I doubt it
 

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Regarding Washington, currently slated for #2 pick overall:

What it should do: Start Haskins the rest of this season. Carefully evaluate his progress and potential against careful vetting of the QBs in this class. If you are convinced Haskins is the guy, auction the first-round pick. Add players on both lines, at WR and the defense. BUT, if Burrow or Tua or anyone else strikes you as materially better than Haskins, you ought to draft that QB at 2 without hesitation.

What it will do: never, ever concede that it may have made a mistake, in this case with Haskins. Never. Because they don’t make them and because, in Bruce Allen’s unforgettable words, “we’re close!” So I expect the pick to be auctioned or used on another position player regardless of the careful analysis of the QBs that should be done.

So, the chances of Burrow > Miami are pretty damn good.
 

DanoooME

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It's Daniel Snyder, so he'll probably trade #2 to Arizona for Patrick Peterson and a 2nd round pick because he's a complete idiot.
 

Van Everyman

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I get that Minkah Fitzpatrick was always a talent but does Tannehill’s performance make you think that, maybe, the problem wasn’t him but organizational dysfunction? As Trollin’ Volin points out, dude is 3-1 as a starter in Tennessee after 7 years and and 5 offensive coordinators in Miami.

I get the need to find the next QB (and roster) of the future but maybe instead of constantly churning through coaches and front office guys, the team should actually prioritize developing the assets they have. Until I see anything close to that I’d have no confidence the next “quarterback of the future” is put in any better of a situation than RT was.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I get that Minkah Fitzpatrick was always a talent but does Tannehill’s performance make you think that, maybe, the problem wasn’t him but organizational dysfunction? As Trollin’ Volin points out, dude is 3-1 as a starter in Tennessee after 7 years and and 5 offensive coordinators in Miami.

I get the need to find the next QB (and roster) of the future but maybe instead of constantly churning through coaches and front office guys, the team should actually prioritize developing the assets they have. Until I see anything close to that I’d have no confidence the next “quarterback of the future” is put in any better of a situation than RT was.
For a long time I've assumed why so many can't miss QB's fail, as have others. They're drafted top 5 overall, put in horrible situations, don't get the coaching they need because the coaching sucks, they fire them, rinse and repeat. They have 4-5 coaching changes and offensive systems in the first 5-6 years and never get going.