2019 Dolphins: Trust the Process

pappymojo

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According to overthecap.com, $10,042,012 of Fitpatrick’s fully-guaranteed, four-year $16,447,768 rookie contract was paid as a signing bonus. That’s just over 61%. When players are traded, signing bonus prorations stay with a player’s original team, meaning that any team receiving Fitzpartick would be getting him for less than 40 cents on the dollar.


If Fitzpatrick were acquired next week, the 2019 cap hit for his new team would be just $1,083,199. His 2020 cap hit would be a meager $1,975,252, and his cap hit in 2021 would be $2,722,878.
Minkah is a valuable asset because he will be cheap for three seasons. The Steelers have been fairly crushed on their cap due to Big Ben and Antonio Brown. (they were crushed in the short term due to Bell last year but got that money back).

One thing I don't fully understand is how the upcoming CBA negotiations factor in to this. The current CBA expires after the 2020 season.

Teams can roll-over unspent salary space into next year's salary but as I understand it, that ends with the conclusion of the 2020 season. I believe that even if the new CBA is basically an updated version of the current CBA, the salary cap process restarts with the 2021 season. In other words, teams can not role over unspent salary space from the 2020 season to the 2021 season. I believe that teams have to spend next year. The teams' average salary for the four-year period (2017 - 2020) must be 89% of their annual salary caps.

Not trying to derail the conversation, just pointing out that the Dolphins won't be able to follow the Browns blue-print of drafting hi-talent players and then making their team a destination for free agents. I think the Dolphins are in a process that will require a much quicker turn-around where they will probably have to overpay free agents first and then hope to hit on their draft picks.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I continue to think this isn't some great masterplan on the part of Ross/Grier/Flores but kind of a series of opportunistic moves that began when the Texans came calling, picked up speed when the team got walloped in historic fashion in the first two weeks, and is continuing now that the talent remaining is wanting out.

Could it work out? Sure -- everything can change in this league if you get a good quarterback. Suddenly, people want to come to play for you (hello, Cleveland). And if you stockpile enough draft picks, only a few of them *need* to work out. But as a lot of people have said, tanking and long rebuilds are really hard in the NFL -- particularly when you add in the need to develop the guys they draft. That won't happen overnight. And in a league that doesn't have guaranteed contracts, I'm not really sure tanking is necessary either.
Whether it was proactive or reactive, it’s an outrageously good job of stockpiling draft assets. The Steelers trade is an outright theft. 9 picks in the first two rounds, a few of which will be top 5. Unreal.
 

sodenj5

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Minkah is a valuable asset because he will be cheap for three seasons. The Steelers have been fairly crushed on their cap due to Big Ben and Antonio Brown. (they were crushed in the short term due to Bell last year but got that money back).

One thing I don't fully understand is how the upcoming CBA negotiations factor in to this. The current CBA expires after the 2020 season.

Teams can roll-over unspent salary space into next year's salary but as I understand it, that ends with the conclusion of the 2020 season. I believe that even if the new CBA is basically an updated version of the current CBA, the salary cap process restarts with the 2021 season. In other words, teams can not role over unspent salary space from the 2020 season to the 2021 season. I believe that teams have to spend next year. The teams' average salary for the four-year period (2017 - 2020) must be 89% of their annual salary caps.

Not trying to derail the conversation, just pointing out that the Dolphins won't be able to follow the Browns blue-print of drafting hi-talent players and then making their team a destination for free agents. I think the Dolphins are in a process that will require a much quicker turn-around where they will probably have to overpay free agents first and then hope to hit on their draft picks.
This is a good point and it’s something Greir addressed today. He said they plan on being aggressive in FA in the 2020 offseason and don’t plan on sitting on a pile of money.

They can go out, get some guys, front load their deals heavily, and wait and see how the CBA shakes out.

Some names that might be of interest:

Brandon Scherff
Rodney Hudson
Joe Thuney
Leonard Williams
Chris Jones
 

rymflaherty

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If I have any issue with the Minkah trade, it’s the same as anything else of late, and that’s how it reflects on Grier and the front office.
Especially if the Grier/Ross rumored draft day exchange is to believed - I’d true, I don’t see how it doesn’t reflect poorly on you when your trading the guy you staked your job on just a year later.
They’ve done a tremendous job acquiring assets...but I have literally no tangible proof that this current front office is going to be capable of turning the theoretical into a reality.

And don’t get me wrong, I’ll still take this gamble over the usual band-aid approach to perpetuate mediocrity, I just wish I had some reason to believe in Grier as someone that’s going to be able to identify talent worthy of these picks.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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With Ben out for the year, that pick may actually be a high one.
This is where I disagree. I do not think the pick will be a top-10 one. Mason Rudolph looked good. It's a decent roster. Most importantly, there are plenty of teams that are much worse.

Having said that, getting even a top-15 pick is a great move by the Miami front office.
 

DeadlySplitter

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sodenj5

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I like the Taco claim. I think he’s a good fit as an OLB in this system. Nothing to lose there.

Rosen starting isn’t a shock. Will be interesting to see how he fares. He has looked better than Fitz at almost every turn.
 

ZMart100

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What the Dolphins are doing is amazing. Through 3 weeks, they are -117 in point differential. That's -39/game. The next worst team in differential are the Jets at -37 total through 3 weeks followed by the Steelers at -36 (what do the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets have in common?). Being 2 points worse per game than the next worst team is overall is astounding. They are a real 0-16 threat.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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What the Dolphins are doing is amazing. Through 3 weeks, they are -117 in point differential. That's -39/game. The next worst team in differential are the Jets at -37 total through 3 weeks followed by the Steelers at -36 (what do the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets have in common?). Being 2 points worse per game than the next worst team is overall is astounding. They are a real 0-16 threat.
That’s astounding and hilarious
 

sodenj5

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Miami is on to their bye week and the season is 25% done.

The more I see of Rosen, the less I think he’s the answer. He didn’t play well yesterday. I think he can be a decent starter for a team some day, but I don’t think he’s a franchise altering talent. I think the Tua train is full steam ahead.

The two other teams presently representing a threat to Miami’s tankdom are Washington and Cincy. Miami plays Washington in what might be the Tua Toilet Bowl. I feel like Cincy will win a few games because they still have some talent and Dalton is playing pretty well. Washington is probably the biggest competition.

A couple of positives:

Raekwon McMillan has been playing at an elite level against the run. He may always be limited in coverage, but he’s a genuine thumper against the run.

Isaiah Prince and Evan Bohem actually played pretty well yesterday, and the O Line in general has played better.

Taco Charlton might have instantly became Miami’s best pass rusher. 2 sacks in 2 games. Obviously very early, but showing signs of playing well and being a good scheme fit
 

tims4wins

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The two other teams presently representing a threat to Miami’s tankdom are Washington and Cincy. Miami plays Washington in what might be the Tua Toilet Bowl. I feel like Cincy will win a few games because they still have some talent and Dalton is playing pretty well. Washington is probably the biggest competition.
On the heels of what happened in Arizona - taking Rosen in the first round, then dumping the coach and taking another QB #1 overall - it would be fascinating if this were to happen again in Washington.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Broncos could enter the tank bowl after Chubb's ACL tear. 0-4 and still have not played the Chargers or Chiefs.
 

rymflaherty

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Early odds I found have the week 6 game vs Washington as a pick’em.
Lucky me, living in Virginia Beach, I’ll get to witness that abomination in its full glory,
That’s going to be an odd viewing experience, as these first 4 games they were so overmatched it didn’t feel like I was openly rooting for them to lose, it felt like an inevitability.
Wish that game was later in the season, a point where other teams have a couple wins and the #1 pick seems like a certainty, then i could root for them to get a win to avoid the 0-16. As it stands it feels like a must lose, to keep the actual goal of this season on track.
 

sodenj5

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Lol. This honestly smells more like trying to protect Rosen’s trade value than anything else.

They can say Fitz gives them the best chance to win Sunday, which he may, but it’s literally pointless switching back and forth. Rosen looked bad last week against a bad team.