2019 Dolphins: Trust the Process

sodenj5

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That haul for Tunsil is legitimately a Pro Bowl QB haul. The Texans are absolutely in go for it now mode while Miami is not.

Again, with Rosen on the roster Miami has the flexibility to choose pretty much whatever QB they want in the next two seasons. They can retool the line next year and let Rosen play and even trade back once or twice and go all in for Lawrence in 2021. They completely control their own destiny, which is wild.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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I hate it when AFCE teams have competent GMs.

Congrats, guys. That's a stupendous trade for the Phins and sets the team back on the right course.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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I give the Dolphins full credit for not half assing a rebuild. Seemingly stockpiling future assets, and I imagine they'll be rolling cap space forward for a few years.

I'm not excited about the QB that they'll likely end up with and the money and picks they'll have to build around him.
 

InstaFace

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And what fraction of fans are truly OK with a Full Hinkie rebuild? It takes balls to do that for your first season in charge of anything more than the NE Secondary. I gotta imagine the average MIA fan isn't as understanding as sodenj.
 

54thMA

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Look it’s all well and good for fins fans that the dolphins are stock piling draft picks. However you can stockpile as many as possible but you still need to hit on them. No guarantee they will draft well with those picks.
This.

We're talking about a franchise that has made the playoffs 3 times in the last 19 years and are 0-3 in those games, being outscored 77-24.

I remember on day one of the draft this year the commentators were raving about their trade with the Cardinals to get their QB of the future, he couldn't beat out the corpse of spinach chin for the starting job.

IMO, the three biggest wins this franchise has had over that 19 year span were wins in Miami vs the Patriots, the one in 2003 on a Monday night that secured the #1 seed for the Steelers, I thought they were going to burn the city down after that epic win, the one in 2015 that torpedoed the #1 seed for the Patriots and that miracle last year that once again torpedoed the #1 seed for the Patriots; the end result in two of those three instances were Super Bowl wins for the Patriots.

Stockpile all the draft picks you want, best of luck hitting on any of them.
 

Silverdude2167

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I am a little confused by the past few posts. Are you all saying that drafting is hard so why even try to get better?

What the Dolphins are doing is a solid strategy and if they can get a good QB in the next draft they will be a great position to be competitive again fairly quickly.
 

dcmissle

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I am a little confused by the past few posts. Are you all saying that drafting is hard so why even try to get better?

What the Dolphins are doing is a solid strategy and if they can get a good QB in the next draft they will be a great position to be competitive again fairly quickly.
You should not be. Praise another HC, a player or another team, another GM, and well ...

You’re positioned for success, and that should be sufficient for now. Nobody sucks forever — the 76ers, the Browns. In other words, what Seoul said above.
 

pjheff

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What the Dolphins are doing is a solid strategy and if they can get a good QB in the next draft they will be a great position to be competitive again fairly quickly.
I understand the strategy of trading older players and bad fits for draft capital. They should certainly send out the Kenny Stills and Kiko Alonso’s of the world tout suite. I just don’t get the universal praise for jettisoning a 25 year old, cost-controlled, franchise LT for future assets, some of which they must now use to hopefully (and not necessarily successfully) replace him. Given his age and cost, as well as the importance of his position, I would think that he (along with Nixon) would be the type of player they would rebuild around, not without.
 

sodenj5

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There’s no guarantee they hit on the picks, but Greir has a pretty strong record that I’m comfortable with. Tunsil and Howard were his first two picks. Harris this far looks like a miss, although he looked far better this year than he has the last two, Minkah looks like a hit, and Wilkins, too soon to tell.

The whole rebuild hinges on hitting on a QB in either 2020 or 2021. The other stuff, the additional picks, are whipped cream and cherries on the sundae. At this point, if he hits on a QB next year and hits on half of the additional picks, it’s a smashing success.
 

nattysez

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I understand the strategy of trading older players and bad fits for draft capital. They should certainly send out the Kenny Stills and Kiko Alonso’s of the world tout suite. I just don’t get the universal praise for jettisoning a 25 year old, cost-controlled, franchise LT for future assets, some of which they must now use to hopefully (and not necessarily successfully) replace him. Given his age and cost, as well as the importance of his position, I would think that he (along with Nixon) would be the type of player they would rebuild around, not without.
He was cost-controlled for 2 more years, and given their current approach, Miami will not be competitive over the next 2 years. Better to trade him now to maximize his value. And to say they maximized his value is putting it mildly.

You could also look at what Miami is doing as a bet against the next Pats QB. Concede the next couple of years, but be ready to be a force when Brady retires.
 

rymflaherty

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Operation Fish Tank in full effect.
(Stole that from Mina Kimes - love it.)

And on a more serious note, I was kind of stunned when I saw Tunsil had been traded, but it’s hard to get too upset after seeing what they received and not knowing where they stood with him long term (contract wise, how they viewed him as a player, person, etc etc)
Only other thing I will say is that I was one of the few people who didn’t see the Rosen trade as a no-brainer...and I think it makes even less sense now. This is not a situation where he’s set up to succeed. It’s tough to envision any situation where he proves more than competent and it just seems this rookie crop of qb’s can provide more upside, while fitting the current time table more effectively.
And having said that, it seems the expectation and consensus os that Miami will land one of the top prospects next year...so I just go back to, “why bother?” when it comes to Rosen and if the goal really is to burn it down and rebuild the right way.
 

sodenj5

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Operation Fish Tank in full effect.
(Stole that from Mina Kimes - love it.)

And on a more serious note, I was kind of stunned when I saw Tunsil had been traded, but it’s hard to get too upset after seeing what they received and not knowing where they stood with him long term (contract wise, how they viewed him as a player, person, etc etc)
Only other thing I will say is that I was one of the few people who didn’t see the Rosen trade as a no-brainer...and I think it makes even less sense now. This is not a situation where he’s set up to succeed. It’s tough to envision any situation where he proves more than competent and it just seems this rookie crop of qb’s can provide more upside, while fitting the current time table more effectively.
And having said that, it seems the expectation and consensus os that Miami will land one of the top prospects next year...so I just go back to, “why bother?” when it comes to Rosen and if the goal really is to burn it down and rebuild the right way.
I still think you look at Rosen as a lottery ticket. Obviously Miami looks to be bad this year. He gives you the flexibility to choose your QB in the next 2 drafts. If Miami decides its Trevor Lawrence or if Tua goes back for a senior year, they can rebuild the team’s roster and have Rosen play in 2020.

It is what it is. I don’t blame Greir for rolling the dice on Rosen at all. It was paying pennies on the dollar for a shot at a franchise QB.
 

pjheff

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He was cost-controlled for 2 more years, and given their current approach, Miami will not be competitive over the next 2 years. Better to trade him now to maximize his value. And to say they maximized his value is putting it mildly.
In two years, he’d be a 27 year old franchise LT entering his sixth season. Using this logic, why aren’t they getting criticized for extending Howard who has the same amount of experience and is a year older?
 

nattysez

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In two years, he’d be a 27 year old franchise LT entering his sixth season. Using this logic, why aren’t they getting criticized for extending Howard who has the same amount of experience and is a year older?
He had one year left on his deal, so he wasn't worth as much on the trade market. It's also possible Flores thinks he can build a defense more quickly than an offense. Lots of potential explanations.
 

axx

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He had one year left on his deal, so he wasn't worth as much on the trade market. It's also possible Flores thinks he can build a defense more quickly than an offense. Lots of potential explanations.
It's two. Remember that first rounders are typically given 4 year contracts with a team option. The Fish exercised the 2020 option in April.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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The Tunsil trade was a great move. However, short of getting Lawrence, I think the Dolphins are still going to be stuck in that 6-8 win cycle. I look at the Rosen situation the same way I saw the Tannehill situation. They stuck with him for 6 (!!!!) years and refused to admit that he is simply not a good NFL QB. There was always an excuse that seemed plausible on its face.

Hey, he was a rookie, what do you expect? (Sure, ok)
Man, that O-Line is going to get him murdered. (No arguments here, they sucked hard for 4 of his years)
He just does not have ANY weapons. (OK, lets go out and get him Landry and Wallace)
He isn't 100% healthy, but when he is, he is going to take off and be the franchise QB.

I can see the same thing with Rosen. Give him some time, he has no O-Line and they just took away his WR1. How long will they keep him if he doesn't produce? Will they keep making excuses?

Also, they need to rebuild the O-Line. They have little to no playmakers. And they also need to find a QB. I don't like the odds of them being able to do so.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Also, they need to rebuild the O-Line. They have little to no playmakers. And they also need to find a QB. I don't like the odds of them being able to do so.
Yes, exactly. They got a haul for Tunsil, but are they likely to draft somebody with those picks who is as good as he is? And yes he was going to get expensive, but they're going to have a ton of cap space. Are they going to spend it on someone as good as Tunsil? I don't see how you rebuild an offensive line by trading your only talented offensive lineman.

I realize it's a different regime, but given this franchise's record of drafting guys like Dion Jordan and signing mediocre free agents, it's hard to be excited about burning the team down like this.
 

sodenj5

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Yes, exactly. They got a haul for Tunsil, but are they likely to draft somebody with those picks who is as good as he is? And yes he was going to get expensive, but they're going to have a ton of cap space. Are they going to spend it on someone as good as Tunsil? I don't see how you rebuild an offensive line by trading your only talented offensive lineman.

I realize it's a different regime, but given this franchise's record of drafting guys like Dion Jordan and signing mediocre free agents, it's hard to be excited about burning the team down like this.
Tunsil was very good, and on the cusp of being a potentially great LT. Miami won nothing with Jake Long, even when he was healthy and a Pro Bowl LT. The Browns won nothing with Joe Thomas, a first ballot hall of famer and one of the best to ever play his position.

If they traded Tunsil for a second round pick, I would be irate. Trading him for two firsts and a second is absolutely insane. It all but guarantees they get whatever QB they want in the next two years, and still have ample ammo to sign free agents and restock in the draft.

Greir has put on a masterclass in how to tear it down and rebuild. Hopefully, ten years from now, we’ll be talking about the Tunsil trade like the Herschel Walker trade.
 

Van Everyman

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The piece to me that would be worrying for a Fish fan is the mixed messages the team is sending. You fire your coach and dump your quarterback, you hire an up-and-coming guy in Flores and trade for Rosen ... and then you clear out the roster for what is likely a 2-3 year rebuild that effectively gives the new coach and QB one season at best to produce.

It's hard to know what direction the team is going in. I'm not convinced they know either.
 

axx

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I think what happened is they saw what they had in Rosen and decided to tank.
 

sodenj5

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The piece to me that would be worrying for a Fish fan is the mixed messages the team is sending. You fire your coach and dump your quarterback, you hire an up-and-coming guy in Flores and trade for Rosen ... and then you clear out the roster for what is likely a 2-3 year rebuild that effectively gives the new coach and QB one season at best to produce.

It's hard to know what direction the team is going in. I'm not convinced they know either.
Ross held a press conference on New Year’s Eve and said they were going to rebuild the right way. They went and signed Flores to a 5 year deal. Anyone that thought this was going to be a one year process was mistaken.
I think what happened is they saw what they had in Rosen and decided to tank.
Trading for Rosen was an attempt to fast track the process without giving up anything major of value. If Rosen looked like a star in training camp and preseason, maybe they don’t trade Tunsil and they decide to let Rosen be the guy for the next two years.

I think the rebuild was always coming, but I think once they realized that Rosen wasn’t going to be a generational QB, and with Houston banging on their door, they decided to maximize their return.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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The Fish weren't going anywhere anytime soon anyway. Even if Rosen looked promising, they still should consider the Tunsil deal because of the return. They are a long ways away from competing for a trophy. Anything they can do to get younger and collect assets is a good thing. And we don't know all that much about Mr. Gas Mask Bong off of the field/in the locker room. Certainly not as much as the Dolphins do. If they felt he was someone who could be a distraction from what Flores is trying to build, it makes even more sense to deal him for picks.

I'm actually a little surprised @Van Everyman thinks this is a mixed message move. They cleared out the roster for a new coach and QB. Isn't that what you should do when rebuilding a team that can't compete? What's the point in running it back and missing the playoffs again with the same guys?
 

dcmissle

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If you’re a team in the Dolphins position presented with the Texas fleecing, you cannot pass. Period. If that means changing course and changing “the message”, then that’s what it means.
 

Super Nomario

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Tunsil was very good, and on the cusp of being a potentially great LT. Miami won nothing with Jake Long, even when he was healthy and a Pro Bowl LT. The Browns won nothing with Joe Thomas, a first ballot hall of famer and one of the best to ever play his position.

If they traded Tunsil for a second round pick, I would be irate. Trading him for two firsts and a second is absolutely insane. It all but guarantees they get whatever QB they want in the next two years, and still have ample ammo to sign free agents and restock in the draft.
I agree with this ... except it doesn't virtually guarantee them whatever QB they want. If some team finishes with a worse record, they may not trade out of #1 no matter what kind of haul Miami can dangle in front of them.

This is why I'm skeptical of tanking strategies in general - tanking only really makes sense for top QB prospects, and even then it's no guarantee. That said, the Tunsil return was too much to pass up.

Only other thing I will say is that I was one of the few people who didn’t see the Rosen trade as a no-brainer...and I think it makes even less sense now. This is not a situation where he’s set up to succeed. It’s tough to envision any situation where he proves more than competent and it just seems this rookie crop of qb’s can provide more upside, while fitting the current time table more effectively.
And having said that, it seems the expectation and consensus os that Miami will land one of the top prospects next year...so I just go back to, “why bother?” when it comes to Rosen and if the goal really is to burn it down and rebuild the right way.
They traded the 62nd pick and a 2020 fifth for Rosen. That's virtually nothing in QB terms. He was functionally the fifth QB off the board in 2019, a year after being the third QB and a top-10 pick. The actual fifth QB in 2019 didn't go until Will Grier with the 100th pick. The upside of hitting on a QB is so high that the chances of success here can be pretty low and still worth it. This is why Ron Wolf espoused taking a QB every year (and why the Patriots take a QB every other year). The Dolphins took a smart, low-cost flyer on Rosen. The cost of adding Rosen in no way impairs anything they want to do in the future.

Even if Rosen is just a future backup, because Arizona eats his signing bonus, he's a low-cost backup at three years, ~$6.2 MM.
 

dcmissle

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Rosen may emerge as the latest poster boy for it matters a fuckton who drafts you. Maybe he can overcome this, but it will not surprise me if his career is over before it starts.
 

pjheff

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Greir has put on a masterclass in how to tear it down and rebuild.
Do you trust Grier to lead the rebuild? While he claims to be a collaborator, he also has made it clear that he has been responsible for the Dolphins’ last four drafts where his record is mixed at best. He had some hits in 2016 but appears to have whiffed on 2017 with incompletes and uncertainty surrounding the last two classes.
 

sodenj5

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Do you trust Grier to lead the rebuild? While he claims to be a collaborator, he also has made it clear that he has been responsible for the Dolphins’ last four drafts where his record is mixed at best. He had some hits in 2016 but appears to have whiffed on 2017 with incompletes and uncertainty surrounding the last two classes.
I think any decent GM knows that there are going to be big swings and misses as well as hits. They key is giving yourself more swings, which they certainly have. Also, there’s no uncertainty. Miami will 100% be scouting QBs all year, and have the most informed decision possible.

The biggest one is the QB, bar none. It will be interesting to see which strategy they employ. A case can be made for building the team in 2020 and drafting a QB in 2021, ala Browns. I think that is my personal preference.

Let’s say they secure a top 3 pick and Tua, Herbert, and Fromm all declare. Auction that pick off to the highest bidder looking for a QB, secure a mountain of picks in 2021, and go all in for a QB the following year.
 

Van Everyman

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Belated reply ... I think what they’re saying publicly is fine ... in theory. But 5 years seems like a total pipe dream to me. This isn't about being terrible, in the modern NFL it's about having a discernible path to consistency. Making the playoffs one year and going 7-9 the next doesn’t cut it anymore. If this team without that for 3 or even 2 years, Flores and Rosen are gone -- and probably, so is Grier. And while I’d like to believe Ross and Greier have it figured out, this team has cycled through six coaches since 2011 (two of which, admittedly, were interim coaches).

Maybe Flores will prove me wrong. But as SN said, I don’t think the modern NFL is built for long rebuilds. The pressures to win are too great and the ability to actually do it with any consistency too challenging.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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A lot rides on which QB the Dolphins are able to land within the next 2 drafts. Can they get Tua, Herbert or Lawrence and is the guy they get the answer under center to get them into contention? If so, Rosen is gone and Flores/Grier are likely safe and they avoid a long rebuild.
 

Super Nomario

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I think any decent GM knows that there are going to be big swings and misses as well as hits. They key is giving yourself more swings, which they certainly have. Also, there’s no uncertainty. Miami will 100% be scouting QBs all year, and have the most informed decision possible.

The biggest one is the QB, bar none. It will be interesting to see which strategy they employ. A case can be made for building the team in 2020 and drafting a QB in 2021, ala Browns. I think that is my personal preference.

Let’s say they secure a top 3 pick and Tua, Herbert, and Fromm all declare. Auction that pick off to the highest bidder looking for a QB, secure a mountain of picks in 2021, and go all in for a QB the following year.
The problem is that if you are starting to rebuild successfully, you might not be bad enough in 2021 to get a top-tier QB. The Browns could have easily gone 4-12 in 2017 and missed out on Mayfield and Darnold. I think you have to scout the crap out of QBs every year and get your guy when you can.
 

sodenj5

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Welp. We’re 6.25% of the way into unlocking the Tua achievement.

The defense was probably more shocking than the offense. I thought the D was going to be competitive. The offense predictably struggled. D was abysmal but the Ravens also started 2 drives in Miami’s red zone.

Did nothing right. Pats should be favored by 30 next week.
 

rymflaherty

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I started my daily fantasy teams with Jackson and Andrews, also had a lot of Ingram, so I was fine with today...
There was a time in my life where taking any player against Miami would be sacrilege and would not be done, but this year is not going to be one of those times.

Admittedly, I do hope things can be more respectful going forward. Guessing next week won’t be the start of that - honestly, what spread can they put on that game that would make feel good about backing Miami?

Either way, I’m still behind the plan and glad that they’ve really stuck to it...if I have any reservation it’s that I’m not sure if (or why) I trust this front office. Having all the picks is amazing, but if they can’t evaluate talent properly than it obviously means nothing.
 

dcmissle

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Multiple Dolphins > their agents: get me out of here.