2019 Coaching Carousel

Saints Rest

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Lincoln Riley is smart. He is building something there. For the vast majority, the NFL is fool’s gold. For the most part, NFL owners are adolescent idiots.
So if you are a person who has enough chops to be in the list being discussed as new head coach, how do you rank the openings? Here's my take:
  1. Cleveland
  2. Green Bay
  3. NYJets
  4. Denver
  5. Miami
  6. Tampa
  7. Arizona
  8. Cinci
 

luckiestman

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they look like they might have a good QB on a rookie deal, and everyone below them has some combination of:
Terrible Cap
Bad QB at $$$$
Bad GM
Bad Owner

Hey hey hey! We have a bad owner and a bad GM too. Sam plus money plus #3 pick is good though.
 

ConigliarosPotential

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For the first 4 years of Matt Ryan's career, Mike Mularkey was Atlanta's offensive coordinator. Just thought that was odd. How often do guys coach as OC in some location, leave and then come back?
The Falcons are also reportedly preparing to interview *another* of Matt Ryan's OCs for a second go at the position - Dirk Koetter.

Kill me again.
 

luckiestman

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For the first 4 years of Matt Ryan's career, Mike Mularkey was Atlanta's offensive coordinator. Just thought that was odd. How often do guys coach as OC in some location, leave and then come back?
There’s that’s one asshole that left the Colts at the altar, so it happens.
 

garlan5

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So if you are a person who has enough chops to be in the list being discussed as new head coach, how do you rank the openings? Here's my take:
  1. Cleveland
  2. Green Bay
  3. NYJets
  4. Denver
  5. Miami
  6. Tampa
  7. Arizona
  8. Cinci
1Green bay
2Denver
3Cinci
4Miami
5Cleveland
6Arizona
7Tampa
8NyJ
 

luckiestman

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After watching this, I’m fine if the Jets go with the King (watch til the end)

 

PedroKsBambino

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Josh reportedly passing on an interview with the Bengals.
Unsurprising---people are overvaluing Lewis' tenure in assessing that job, IMO. I think it's a pretty poor organization without a ton in place. Being in a mediocre to bad situation for a long time is not really a positive thing for McD.
 

Super Nomario

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Unsurprising---people are overvaluing Lewis' tenure in assessing that job, IMO. I think it's a pretty poor organization without a ton in place. Being in a mediocre to bad situation for a long time is not really a positive thing for McD.
I think the other advantage to Cincinnati is having more of an opportunity to have a say in personnel matters versus the other jobs where a GM / personnel guy is already in place. The importance of that is going to vary to different candidates.

As far as on the field, you could do worse. The O was crippled by injuries. The D should have been better than it was. They had a good 2018 draft. But Dalton, while not bad, isn't the answer and some other key pieces (Atkins, Green, Burfict) are getting older. They could bounce back to 9-7 or whatever in 2019 but they need a lot to get to 12-4.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yes, that's a good point---though it is lessened in appeal somewhat by the unwillingness of ownership to spend money and the relative lack of appeal of the team/market.

It's not the worst situation out there---I would aruge it's a better one than the Jets job for example--but I do not think it's near the top either.
 

garlan5

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In GB you're dealing with an aging, moody, and now injury prone QB. Put me in zona or Florida where the expectations are low.
I don't personally like AR or the pack but he's clearly been top 1 or 2 QBs in the league the last few years, this year and injures aside. I think he has some years left in the tank.

Zona is def low expectations with some decent talent on D.

Florida teams idk.
In Tampa the owner is on record saying Winston is the QB and any coach willing must accept that. No thank you.

Miami just gave up on a decent coach after 2 years, or is it 3. I think firing Gase is a mistake and I wouldn't trust ownership to allow a coach to build things.
 

bakahump

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Cinnci is tough too because (other then Paul Brown) you probably following their best coach ever.

Hey Stop laughing.

Seriously while lewis has been an under achiever he has turned a terrible team into an often mediocre (and occasionally decent) one.
(which weirdly i think shows that even a mediocre to bad coach can be "Successful" if he is given stability. See Tomlin, Mike as another example)

1. Lewis leaves the cabinet pretty bare (aging middling qb making a chunk of the cap, older D etc etc)
2. So your probably gonna have some slippage.

I dont want to be the guy who followed mediocrity with just plain bad-ness. Ownership and fans have become accustomed to "relavancy" (Stop laughing again). If they lose that (or the appearance of that) the next coach will have a short tenure.
 

Super Nomario

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Yes, that's a good point---though it is lessened in appeal somewhat by the unwillingness of ownership to spend money and the relative lack of appeal of the team/market.

It's not the worst situation out there---I would aruge it's a better one than the Jets job for example--but I do not think it's near the top either.
I don't know about ownership not spending money. They haven't used free agency much but they've spent to keep their own guys - Green, Atkins, Dalton, Burfict, even guys like Dre Kirkpatrick where they probably should have. With the 90% cash floor in this CBA it's not clear that an organization can really get away with not spending money.

They are light in terms of support staff, which might be a flaw or an opportunity to influence front office hires.

The Jets job I think comes down to how you view Darnold. If you're all-in on him, it's a good gig. In Cincinnati, you might get to pick your QB, but it's no sure bet you're in a good position to get one.

I don't personally like AR or the pack but he's clearly been top 1 or 2 QBs in the league the last few years, this year and injures aside. I think he has some years left in the tank.
When's the last time Rodgers played like a top 1-2 QB over the course of an entire season? 2014?
 

joe dokes

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An interesting note on that. Recall that great BB/Parcells joint-interview/joint-remembrance program?

BB gushed about Parcells giving him Head Coach training. The praise could not have been more effusive. Being called into Parcells’ office for explanations about why Parcells was handling a player a certain way, personnel moves and so forth.

Didn't McD say similar things about BB?
 

rymflaherty

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Miami just gave up on a decent coach after 2 years, or is it 3. I think firing Gase is a mistake and I wouldn't trust ownership to allow a coach to build things.
Gase had 3 years.
I think the bigger issue, and why it has to be one of the least attractive jobs, is they don’t have a QB and they don’t have a high pick to obtain one. And then on top of that Tannenbaum has left them with a shit salary cap situation...
Honestly the only real path I see to them turning things around is to purge the roster, be a 3 win team next year and then draft an elite talent in what looks like it could be a great QB draft.
So I’m not sure what Coach is willing to step into and accept that.

Personally I’d also include them sticking with Grier as another negative and a sign that they are repeating the same mistakes they always have (refraining from a true reset), but I have no idea what was going on behind the scenes, and Grier does become one of the few African-Americans in charge of football operations, so it’s at lest possible having that diversity actually becomes a plus too.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I know its bizarre to say but I'm with Saints Rest in thinking that the Browns job is pretty appealing. Jimmy Haslam hasn't made a lot of great decisions since buying the team but John Dorsey seems like a decent enough GM - maybe not positive VORP but not a dumpster fire by any means - and you get to coach Baker Mayfield, who looks like a potential top 5-10 QB for the next decade. The franchise has been so beaten down that just getting into the playoffs and bringing some excitement into Cleveland is going to make you the toast of the town. And you're catching the rest of a generally tough division at a pretty good time, with the Steelers facing the loss of Ben and AB in the next couple years, it still unclear whether Lamar Jackson is the long term answer in Baltimore, and the Bengals being the Bengals.
 

Hoya81

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Cinnci is tough too because (other then Paul Brown) you probably following their best coach ever.
I’d probably put him 3rd or 4th. Brown’s tenure as coach was about average, making the playoffs 3 times. Depends on how you view Gregg and Wyche making the SB versus Lewis’ overall record.
 

Saints Rest

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Here are my thoughts for why I ranked as I did.

Cleveland -- Mayfield, tons of young talent, tons of cap space. Division possibly on downside. Make the playoffs and you'll be a hero. Win a playoff game and they will erect a statue.
GB -- Rodgers, historical franchise, great fans, stable ownership, some other good young talent.
NYJ -- Darnold, some good young talent on D, #3 pick this year, second most cap space. Again, not much recent positive history to contend with.
Den -- lots of talent, though not at QB, recent history of success under Elway -- can he do it again?, maybe the best HFA in the NFL
Mia -- cap crap, Tannehill, ownership -- none are awful, but none are positives. OTOH, another team without much recent positive history to contend with.
Tam -- a good amount of talent on hand, depending on your view of James
Ari -- #1 pick in hand, Josh Rosen, David Johnson -- all pluses. But they are probably looking up at all other teams in their division with the Rams being miles above them
Cinci -- management/ownership (how can you trust a group that let Marvin Lewis coach for 13 years?), not much young talent left, looking up at the other teams in the division
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Here are my thoughts for why I ranked as I did.

Cleveland -- Mayfield, tons of young talent, tons of cap space. Division possibly on downside. Make the playoffs and you'll be a hero. Win a playoff game and they will erect a statue.
GB -- Rodgers, historical franchise, great fans, stable ownership, some other good young talent.
NYJ -- Darnold, some good young talent on D, #3 pick this year, second most cap space. Again, not much recent positive history to contend with.
Den -- lots of talent, though not at QB, recent history of success under Elway -- can he do it again?, maybe the best HFA in the NFL
Mia -- cap crap, Tannehill, ownership -- none are awful, but none are positives. OTOH, another team without much recent positive history to contend with.
Tam -- a good amount of talent on hand, depending on your view of James
Ari -- #1 pick in hand, Josh Rosen, David Johnson -- all pluses. But they are probably looking up at all other teams in their division with the Rams being miles above them
Cinci -- management/ownership (how can you trust a group that let Marvin Lewis coach for 13 years?), not much young talent left, looking up at the other teams in the division
I'd probably rank Cleveland GB 1-2 as well, in addition to what SR said above both teams have good O lines and draft capital in the 2019 draft (GB has an extra 1st and 4th, Cleveland has an extra 3rd rounder and two extra 5th rounders). I'd drop Denver down pretty far on the list-above just Cinci and maybe Arizona. They still have a QB problem, and I dont think Elway is the guy to solve it. He's drafted Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly since 2012. Elway's record as a GM in non-Payton Manning years is pretty far in the red.

Miami is a pretty bad situation overall, but at least whoever goes in there should get the benefit of everyone acknowledging that a total rebuild is needed-is there any player/position group that sticks out there as being good? In a "redraft" (like we did a few years ago) of NFL players, who goes highest off of the Dolphins? Kenyon Drake?
 

dwainw

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@rymflaherty already pretty much covered mine and others' perspective on Miami's situation, although I would ask with regard to this:

Miami just gave up on a decent coach after 2 years, or is it 3. I think firing Gase is a mistake and I wouldn't trust ownership to allow a coach to build things.
What is it Gase did in 3 years that you think warrants him coming back, particularly as the Dolphins move away from Tannehill, Gase's darling of sorts, and one of the big reasons they brought Gase in in the first place. I've been a bit ambivalent about Gase, even now, but I think the argument(s) against him are solid.

Also, word in MIami is that there's a lot of player support for Rizzi. Yeah, I know what player support often amounts to (cough--Gradylittle--cough cough), but I believe he has pretty solid league-wide respect and has survived 4 coaching regimes in MIami. And, for what it's worth, Special Teams have been a relative strength of the Dolphins during that stretch.
 

Cellar-Door

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Right, because Jets have a great GM and owner....
the point was that they appear to have possibly gotten a good QB, none of the teams below them do (maybe Arizona has a shot) and none have some great structure to offset that. You could make a case to me for a team with no QB if they had a great owner, GM and cap space because they could maybe acquire one. When you have at most 1 of those 3, and no QB.... you're going to be bad. Nobody wants to take a job with a bad team and lock himself into Jameis/Keenum/Tannehill/Dalton if he could get a similarly bad team with what looks like a good QB in Darnold on a cheap deal (plus a high pick to spend on other holes)
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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the point was that they appear to have possibly gotten a good QB, none of the teams below them do (maybe Arizona has a shot) and none have some great structure to offset that. You could make a case to me for a team with no QB if they had a great owner, GM and cap space because they could maybe acquire one. When you have at most 1 of those 3, and no QB.... you're going to be bad. Nobody wants to take a job with a bad team and lock himself into Jameis/Keenum/Tannehill/Dalton if he could get a similarly bad team with what looks like a good QB in Darnold on a cheap deal (plus a high pick to spend on other holes)
Which is fair, I just don’t have the same opinion of Darnold that you seem to. They do have cap space, true. But the ownership is a mess and I don’t see what faith to put into Maccagnan. When he goes and drops $15/yr on Bell or some other dumb move it’s not gonna help.

But reasonable minds can differ obviously. Jets just seem to be a ‘they’re offering me a head coaching job? Hell yeah!’ to me more than a destination, especially when factoring in fan base and media.
 

dcmissle

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Didn't McD say similar things about BB?
I don’t recall. I do recall that this was the commitment made going forward when Josh reneged on the Colts job last year.

RapSheet on NFLN just now: Josh interviewed with the Packers earlier today.
 

E5 Yaz

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https://www.cantonrep.com/sports/20190103/doerschuk-josh-mcdaniels-very-interested-in-browns-job

Josh McDaniels "Very Interested" in Browns job. This is always where I thought he would end up. It really is a perfect fit for both sides and I think he'd do really well in Cleveland.
I think it has the potential to be a terrible hire for Cleveland. After last year's circus, they a stable presence as a head coach ... and I think the jury's out over whether McDaniels could provide that. He was flaky, to be kind, in Denver, and the Indy debacle doesn't help.

Then again, I've always thought that, rather than BB, it's McDaniels who is more a success because he's had Brady at the helm.
 

steveluck7

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FWIW re: McDaniels and the Browns... Albert Breer was on with Beetle and Zo this morning and he said that from what he hears, the interest is really one-sided and that the Browns aren’t super hot after Josh.
Breer’s thought was that this story was to “smoke out” the Browns interest, whatever it is.
 

luckiestman

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Let’s play a little connect the dots.

Earlier this week, Lombardi mentioned Rhule from Baylor as a possibility for the Jets

Today Mehta drops a story about the Jets interest in Rhule.

Who has a son coaching at Baylor and another coaching at the Jets? Mike Lombardi.


From wiki:

He and his wife, Millie, have two sons:[5] Matt, who is a coach for the Baylor Bears; and Mick, who is a coach for the New York Jets.[citation needed]
 

j-man

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my rank in the 8 jobs
1 cle team on the rise but bad owner i think gase gets it
2 gb rodgers might play for 5 more years great fans philben gets the job in a upset
3 nyj 100 mil in cap space donald adams i think mcchathy goes here
4 den what hurts this job is the ownership and elway kubiak its gonna be harbaugh or pargno both will be ok with kubiak as oc
5 mia they have a worse owner than denver Harbaugh or KC OC gets the job
6 zona rosen is ok underrated def bowles gets it
7 ciny why ahead of tampa they will give u a shot hue jackson unlees he askes for too much $ then v joseph
8 tb no qb weird ownship arins ex zona coach gets the job and brings kitchers cle with him to take over in 2022
 

kenneycb

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Let’s play a little connect the dots.

Earlier this week, Lombardi mentioned Rhule from Baylor as a possibility for the Jets

Today Mehta drops a story about the Jets interest in Rhule.

Who has a son coaching at Baylor and another coaching at the Jets? Mike Lombardi.


From wiki:

He and his wife, Millie, have two sons:[5] Matt, who is a coach for the Baylor Bears; and Mick, who is a coach for the New York Jets.[citation needed]
I remember hearing that and chuckling to myself. But, hey, if he gets Rhule a few extra bucks on a reworked deal, good job by him.
 

maufman

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Here are my thoughts for why I ranked as I did.

Cleveland -- Mayfield, tons of young talent, tons of cap space. Division possibly on downside. Make the playoffs and you'll be a hero. Win a playoff game and they will erect a statue.
GB -- Rodgers, historical franchise, great fans, stable ownership, some other good young talent.
NYJ -- Darnold, some good young talent on D, #3 pick this year, second most cap space. Again, not much recent positive history to contend with.
Den -- lots of talent, though not at QB, recent history of success under Elway -- can he do it again?, maybe the best HFA in the NFL
Mia -- cap crap, Tannehill, ownership -- none are awful, but none are positives. OTOH, another team without much recent positive history to contend with.
Tam -- a good amount of talent on hand, depending on your view of James
Ari -- #1 pick in hand, Josh Rosen, David Johnson -- all pluses. But they are probably looking up at all other teams in their division with the Rams being miles above them
Cinci -- management/ownership (how can you trust a group that let Marvin Lewis coach for 13 years?), not much young talent left, looking up at the other teams in the division
I think a majority of coaches would take the opportunity to coach Rodgers over the situation in Cleveland, but those are definitely the two best jobs. The Johnson family’s ownership puts the Jets a notch below those two, but it’s clearly better than the others, each of which has obvious flaws.

With Rosen and the #1 pick, Arizona might be a good situation with patient ownership, but the decision to fire Wilks after just one season suggests that patience won’t be in abundant supply.

Bengals’ ownership has demonstrated that they are patient, but there’s not much to work with there, assuming you believe (as I do) that Lewis is a competent coach who got something close to the best out of his limited talent.

Miami has decent talent on hand, but a terrible QB situation. I’m a little surprised they didn’t give Gase one more season to produce results with the existing core before moving on with a rebuild. I think the new coach will be hard-pressed to get results in the customary three-year window.

Tampa is another situation that might be good with patient ownership, but I don’t think that exists, and I think the new coach will be forced to deal with Jameis Winston for at least one more season. As with the Dolphins, the next coach will come and go before the Bucs are good again.

Denver is the worst situation of all — less talent than the conventional wisdom supposes, Case Keenum at QB, and an impatient GM who isn’t going anywhere.
 

tims4wins

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With Rosen and the #1 pick, Arizona might be a good situation with patient ownership, but the decision to fire Wilks after just one season suggests that patience won’t be in abundant supply.
Just to isolate this piece of it - your comment may be true, but they may have also just decided to move on from a tire fire. Based on last year's coaching carousel it seemed like they got stuck with one of the worst hires after the game of musical chairs had subsided. It is important they get the right guy with Rosen and the #1 pick coming and if they knew Wilks wasn't that guy then it would be wise to move on.

That said, if they end up hiring like Todd Bowles or Brian Flores, then yeah, they will have fucked up again.
 

maufman

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Just to isolate this piece of it - your comment may be true, but they may have also just decided to move on from a tire fire. Based on last year's coaching carousel it seemed like they got stuck with one of the worst hires after the game of musical chairs had subsided. It is important they get the right guy with Rosen and the #1 pick coming and if they knew Wilks wasn't that guy then it would be wise to move on.

That said, if they end up hiring like Todd Bowles or Brian Flores, then yeah, they will have fucked up again.
I definitely agree. That’s why I put Arizona ahead of a lot of other jobs — there is definitely something to work with, and if Wilks was the wrong man for the job, ownership was right not to keep him around to let him fuck it up. I do think it’s hard, however, to attract a good coach to lead a long-term rebuild (which is what’s needed in Arizona) when you just sacked your coach after one season.
 

Cellar-Door

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Just to isolate this piece of it - your comment may be true, but they may have also just decided to move on from a tire fire. Based on last year's coaching carousel it seemed like they got stuck with one of the worst hires after the game of musical chairs had subsided. It is important they get the right guy with Rosen and the #1 pick coming and if they knew Wilks wasn't that guy then it would be wise to move on.

That said, if they end up hiring like Todd Bowles or Brian Flores, then yeah, they will have fucked up again.
I think the general feeling of people who cover the league seems to be that ARI has one of the worst Ownership/GM situations. Keim's draft record is.... not great, he hasn't done much in the trade for FA markets, and he has the dubious distinction of having been suspended 5 games this year for "extreme" DUI. The ownership is Bidwell who is a clown. The Arizona papers have basically said that Bidwell was the reason Arians didn't come back, and wanted to move on from anything Arians related, and was the driving force in hiring Wilks (his GM didn't want Wilks, preferring incumbent D-coordinator Bettcher). But don't think that means Kleim is good, his compromise with Bidwell is that Wilks had to agree to Kleim's choice for O-Coordinator........ MIKE FUCKING MCCOY possibly the worst offensive coordinator of this or any decade.

Yeah Arizona is a tire fire, maybe Rosen ends up so good it doesn't matter, but the front office and ownership is very bad.
 

garlan5

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When's the last time Rodgers played like a top 1-2 QB over the course of an entire season? 2014?
2016 top 5 in yards, prob number 1 in td, prob number 1 td/int ratio, one of the highest qb ratings
Edit. When healthy he can be the best QB on the field.
 

DrewDawg

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PFT saying Pats preparing for Josh to leave and to keep eye on Kingsbury to replace him.
 

Cellar-Door

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PFT saying Pats preparing for Josh to leave and to keep eye on Kingsbury to replace him.
UCLA already refused permission for 2 NFL teams to interview Kingsbury for head coaching gigs, not sure why they would turn around and let him leave for a coordinator job.


Edit- USC I meant. Apparently there are rumors he'll quit at USC if they don't let him interview and take his chances.
 
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Red Averages

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UCLA already refused permission for 2 NFL teams to interview Kingsbury for head coaching gigs, not sure why they would turn around and let him leave for a coordinator job.


Edit- USC I meant. Apparently there are rumors he'll quit at USC if they don't let him interview and take his chances.
That sounds familiar!
 

Euclis20

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2016 top 5 in yards, prob number 1 in td, prob number 1 td/int ratio, one of the highest qb ratings
Edit. When healthy he can be the best QB on the field.
It's hardly scientific, but every year NFL players vote on the top players in the league (top 100), and Rodgers has been in the top 5 just once in the past 6 years (and smart money says he'll finish outside the top 5 again after this year). Granted he finished #1 7 years ago and was #6 3 times since, but he's rarely been considered by his peers the #1 or #2 QB in the league for awhile now.

Compare that to Brady, who has been #1 the last 2 years and hasn't finished lower than #4 in the 8 years since they started voting. Rodgers as the best QB in the league has been a bit of a media creation for some time now.
 

RedOctober3829

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If Kingsbury comes in, is there the personnel available to run his offense? Brady isn't exactly Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield with his legs. He was in here as a QB in 03 so I'm sure he'd tailor the offense to what Brady has been doing.