2019 Coaching Carousel

Super Nomario

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This will of course be laughed at and he is hardly a sexy candidate but Caldwell owns a .554 winning percentage as a head coach despite having one season in Indy with the likes of Diamond Dan Orlovsky under center for 8 games and coaching Matt Stafford for four seasons. He’s not terrible and possibly ok as a HC but probably not a guy who the FO will ever put a top tier personnel guy in to support.

Edit: Which is to say, he is exactly the kind of fall guy Walsh describes in his book mentioned upthread.
Hey the Colts went 2-3 in Orlovsky's 5 starts! The problem was, they went 0-8 with Curtis Painter (one of the worst modern QBs to get that many starts) and 0-3 with death-warmed-over Kerry Collins. None of the trio ever started an NFL game again.
 

dcmissle

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If Josh isn’t planning on leaving why would he take interviews?
Who knows with Josh?

Putting aside his coordinator credentials, the Indy experience does not reflect particularly well on him if he is sitting there a year after the fact not knowing what he really wants. I don’t think it has escaped anyone’s attention that Reich has done something with that job.

You had something at least approaching a wink and nod with Kraft about succeeding Belichick — ok, what’s changed? You had a bad feeling about Indy — ok, well what about my situation here with team x, which is arguably worse because we have nobody approaching Andrew Luck?

And it’s not as if Denver went well for him either. Objectively, it was a disaster.

I’d probably talk with him about an opening, but I would be wary and skeptical.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Josh burned himself a year ago. He has the post-BB Pats and that’s it. That’s the deal he made when he reneged on the Colts. He knew what that meant at that time and he’s good with that.
 

InstaFace

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Because his offenses have been top-5 in points going back for a decade, and top-10 in yards (other than 2014), and even if you've got Brady and Gronk back there it's not like you can have any old moron coaching up the rookies and calling plays back there and still yield that consistency of results.
 

dcmissle

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Because his offenses have been top-5 in points going back for a decade, and top-10 in yards (other than 2014), and even if you've got Brady and Gronk back there it's not like you can have any old moron coaching up the rookies and calling plays back there and still yield that consistency of results.
Different job. Norv Turner has had a distinguished career as an Offensive Coordinator.


Because they're each going to offer him the job ... then rescind the offer a week later
Or because they want to pick his brain, and if a day or two messes with Pats’ playoff preparation, that’s ok too. I’d prefer the day or two devoted to trying to figure out a defense, oh, like the Ravens defense.
 

BigJimEd

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Or because they want to pick his brain, and if a day or two messes with Pats’ playoff preparation, that’s ok too. I’d prefer the day or two devoted to trying to figure out a defense, oh, like the Ravens defense.
Pick his brain for what end? They want to pick his brain to see if he'd be a good fit as head coach.
Walking away from Indy probably hurt his reputation but at least some teams don't consider that the end of it all.
 

Super Nomario

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There are 8 head coach openings. There are not 8 perfect head coaching candidates. McDaniels reneging on the Colts is a black mark but he has a lot of other plusses. It only makes sense he's getting looks. Whether he'll get an offer worth taking is another matter.
 

nattysez

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How many times are BB guys going to have to fail before it becomes clear that NE is not a place where guys develop a broad set of skills?
 

tims4wins

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How many times are BB guys going to have to fail before it becomes clear that NE is not a place where guys develop a broad set of skills?
Said the same to my dad yesterday. There are exceptions and I believe Josh will be one of them but so many failures.
 

InstaFace

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It's not clear to me that Scott Pioli, Romeo Crennel, Mike Vrabel, Bill O'Brien or Jim Schwartz were/are failures. And it's still too soon to judge Patricia, too.

Unless the only definition of success is "won a super bowl", in which case clearly Andy Reid is a failure and Gary Kubiak a success.
 

rymflaherty

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Kind of ironic, last year all the pre-draft rumors spoke of how much Gase loved Mayfield, and to a lesser extent Rosen, neither wound up in Miami, but it looks like Gase may wind up with one of the two anyways. Probably why it didn’t seem like he cared if he was fired...
 

dcmissle

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Pick his brain for what end? They want to pick his brain to see if he'd be a good fit as head coach.
Walking away from Indy probably hurt his reputation but at least some teams don't consider that the end of it all.
Al Davis use to do this all the time. Interview people he thought were bright but had no intention of hiring.
 

Oil Can Dan

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That’s weird. Scouts don’t associate with the coaches all that often. What do you think Schwartz learned from Belichick during that time?
 

dcmissle

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How many times are BB guys going to have to fail before it becomes clear that NE is not a place where guys develop a broad set of skills?
An interesting note on that. Recall that great BB/Parcells joint-interview/joint-remembrance program?

BB gushed about Parcells giving him Head Coach training. The praise could not have been more effusive. Being called into Parcells’ office for explanations about why Parcells was handling a player a certain way, personnel moves and so forth.
 

luckiestman

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That’s weird. Scouts don’t associate with the coaches all that often. What do you think Schwartz learned from Belichick during that time?
I think Schwartz was rooming with Mangini in Cleveland and I think Lombardi and BB taught those guys exactly what they look for in players. BB actually has said Lombardi was very influential in how he does personnel.

The “slappies” did more than just their official title.

I don’t know if I have this all right, but what I’m going by is the doc: Cleveland 95, the BB book by Halberstam, and an interview where I heard Belichick talk about Lombardi.

I know Schwartz and Lombardi are still close because I figure he is his source in Phi.
 

InstaFace

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Nor did Schwartz.
If you watched the ESPN A Football Life episode, "Cleveland 1995", Schwartz was all over that footage giving his input on personnel decisions in coaches meetings. He has been widely reported as staying in close touch with Belichick and getting BB to vouch for him for subsequent jobs, like the Tennessee DC job from which he has a ring. (I see luckiestman mentioned the documentary, but read that article and then tell me he's not part of the BB coaching tree)

I could throw Saban in this list for the same reasons, he was BB's defensive coordinator for 4 years (having had a good college career beforehand but only 2 years as a Secondary assistant in the NFL). I'd say he's done okay.

Vrabel played for Belichick for 8 of his 10 years as a starter (after having never started in Pittsburgh), was viewed as future coach material at the time, and went into coaching the minute his playing days were over. If you want to argue that he learned more from 3 years under Urban Meyer or 4 years under Bill O'Brien than he did in 8 years as Belichick's defensive play caller, go ahead, but I think we can still call him part of the Belichick tree.

edit: and that's leaving aside O'Brien, Crennel and Pioli, who I assume everyone is conceding as having been successful post-Belichick, which is what we're arguing about.
 

Super Nomario

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That’s weird. Scouts don’t associate with the coaches all that often. What do you think Schwartz learned from Belichick during that time?
Belichick was/is the top personnel guy in addition to the head coach so he works with the personnel people just as he works with the coaching staff. In the introduction to Mike Lombardi's book, Belichick says that Schwartz worked with him and Lombardi to define the grading scale and the roles they were looking for.

Apropos of nothing really, but Lombardi later says that Belichick has this consultant give any prospect hires a personality test / assessment and the consultant called immediately after giving Schwartz the test and said he was basically the best profile he had ever evaluated.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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If you watched the ESPN A Football Life episode, "Cleveland 1995", Schwartz was all over that footage giving his input on personnel decisions in coaches meetings. He has been widely reported as staying in close touch with Belichick and getting BB to vouch for him for subsequent jobs, like the Tennessee DC job from which he has a ring. (I see luckiestman mentioned the documentary, but read that article and then tell me he's not part of the BB coaching tree).
Schwartz has a ring with the Eagles, not the Titans. But to your main point (which I absolutely agree with) there were a ton of stories before the Super Bowl last year about Schwartz coaching against BB and how much BB meant to him and his NFL career.
 

InstaFace

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Schwartz has a ring with the Eagles, not the Titans. But to your main point (which I absolutely agree with) there were a ton of stories before the Super Bowl last year about Schwartz coaching against BB and how much BB meant to him and his NFL career.
Thanks for the correction.
 

Super Nomario

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How many times are BB guys going to have to fail before it becomes clear that NE is not a place where guys develop a broad set of skills?
I have a problem with the "BB guys aren't good HCs" for several reasons:
1) We are still talking small sample size.
2) MOST hires fail. About half of hires never make the playoffs. There is an asymmetry problem where winning percentage is 50% on average, but the successful coaches get to coach so much longer. I looked at this a couple years ago and found median win percentage was about .465.

Just 1) and 2) are sufficient to show that having something like 2/7 coaches or whatever beat the average tells us nothing, but I'll also add:

3) It's kind of arbitrary who falls under whose tree. Schwartz, mentioned above, is not typically associated with Belichick. Crennel is, even though he was hired by Ray Perkins and coached under Perkins, Bill Parcells, Ray Handley, Parcells again, and Chris Palmer before Belichick hired him at the age of 54.

Vrabel played for Belichick for 8 of his 10 years as a starter (after having never started in Pittsburgh), was viewed as future coach material at the time, and went into coaching the minute his playing days were over. If you want to argue that he learned more from 3 years under Urban Meyer or 4 years under Bill O'Brien than he did in 8 years as Belichick's defensive play caller, go ahead, but I think we can still call him part of the Belichick tree.
Because Vrabel's pro coaching career was under O'Brien and O'Brien is a Belichick guy, Vrabel is at least a branch on the Belichick tree. But again, it's kind of arbitrary.

4) We have to consider context on some of these records, right? Crennel went 10-6 with the Browns, the only 10-win season Cleveland has had since they rebooted the franchise. He should get a medal for that; instead we're talking about him as a failure.

5) If we're going to talk Pioli, are we going to bring up Ozzie Newsome and Thomas Dimitroff? Fully like 1/4 of the league's GMs are on the scouting scale Belichick developed
 

PedroKsBambino

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5) If we're going to talk Pioli, are we going to bring up Ozzie Newsome and Thomas Dimitroff? Fully like 1/4 of the league's GMs are on the scouting scale Belichick developed
Yeah--in addition to those two also Jason Licht, Jon Robinson, Bob Quinn. And Pioli at a couple stops. Likely missing someone.
 

InstaFace

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5) If we're going to talk Pioli, are we going to bring up Ozzie Newsome and Thomas Dimitroff? Fully like 1/4 of the league's GMs are on the scouting scale Belichick developed
Well, to your point, it's clearly a difference of degree not of type, right? Pioli was Belichick's top personnel man, in a GM role in all senses other than having final say, for a number of the glory years, from 1992 to 2008, with only 1996 in Baltimore as an exception.

Newsome only for the 5 years in Cleveland, and several of those as a junior front office executive.
Dimitroff worked under Pioli as a scout initially, spending 6 years in Foxborough as he became an executive. Could argue them either way.
 

soxhop411

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Per JasonLaCanfora Flores will meet with the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Browns and the Packers this weekend
 

Mystic Merlin

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He’s not even the official DC. Shades of Mangini IMO.
He should do as many interviews as he can. Even if he doesn’t get offered or spring for a job right now, the exposure is great for him. A large part of the battle in getting one of these jobs is having people in the management circles talk about you.
 

kenneycb

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Well he is handsome as all hell and ran a fun offense. Makes some semblance of sense for those two teams given their young QBs. He coached Baker, Mahomes and Davis Webb when he was there, which is damn impressive, even if he royally f’d up the Baker situation.
 

tims4wins

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Well he is handsome as all hell and ran a fun offense. Makes some semblance of sense for those two teams given their young QBs. He coached Baker, Mahomes and Davis Webb when he was there, which is damn impressive, even if he royally f’d up the Baker situation.
Manziel too
 

tims4wins

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I don't think the Arizona Cardinals wanted Steve Wilks, but someone had to coach the team this year after Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians retired. They played the Bears, road games at the Chiefs and Chargers, and a pair of division games each against the Rams and Seahawks.
Good point. That seemed like a decision made after all
the other good candidates were gone.
 

Dollar

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Well he is handsome as all hell and ran a fun offense. Makes some semblance of sense for those two teams given their young QBs.
Yep, and it's a good thing for him that a bunch of teams are going to be looking for the next Sean McVay this offseason... I thought Lincoln Riley would be in that group but it looks like he just got an extension at OU. I wonder if those teams will realize that just having an offensive "wunderkind" isn't enough, and that you actually need real talent like the Rams have to run that offense effectively.
 

luckiestman

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Yep, and it's a good thing for him that a bunch of teams are going to be looking for the next Sean McVay this offseason... I thought Lincoln Riley would be in that group but it looks like he just got an extension at OU. I wonder if those teams will realize that just having an offensive "wunderkind" isn't enough, and that you actually need real talent like the Rams have to run that offense effectively.
Sam is a lot better than Goff, imo. I still don’t even know if Goff is that good (he could be).

Getting a Gurley is hard but smoke around Bell to Jesters for a while now. We’ll see. My reading is that McCarthy is the favorite for the job. I’m not too fired up about this.
 

tims4wins

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He should do as many interviews as he can. Even if he doesn’t get offered or spring for a job right now, the exposure is great for him. A large part of the battle in getting one of these jobs is having people in the management circles talk about you.
Oh totally agree. He just shouldn’t leave IMO for at least another few years.
 

Super Nomario

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Well, to your point, it's clearly a difference of degree not of type, right? Pioli was Belichick's top personnel man, in a GM role in all senses other than having final say, for a number of the glory years, from 1992 to 2008, with only 1996 in Baltimore as an exception.

Newsome only for the 5 years in Cleveland, and several of those as a junior front office executive. Dimitroff worked under Pioli as a scout initially, spending 6 years in Foxborough as he became an executive. Could argue them either way.
I don't really see that you could argue them either way. Newsome's "only for the 5 years in Cleveland" represent the totality of his post-playing experience prior to being elevated to the top personnel job in Baltimore, though he didn't get the official general manager title for a few more seasons. If you wouldn't put him in Belichick's tree, he is in no one's tree.

I don't think I would really describe the scouts as working "under Pioli" (or now, under Caserio). It is clear from reading the Holley books that Belichick is pretty involved in how things operate at all levels of the organization. At any rate, Dimitroff was promoted to Director of College Scouting after only a year and served in that role with the Pats for for five years, the years immediately preceding his hire as the Falcons GM. That was his only front office experience* and his longest tenure anywhere prior to the Atlanta gig. Again, if he's not in Belichick's tree, he's not in anyone's.

Pioli is more the exception than the rule here. He had an unusually long tenure with Belichick and an unusual amount of authority prior to being named GM of KC.

* NFL front office experience - he was College Scouting Coordinator for the Saskatchewan Roughriders for a couple years. Rest of the point still stands.
 
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dcmissle

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Yep, and it's a good thing for him that a bunch of teams are going to be looking for the next Sean McVay this offseason... I thought Lincoln Riley would be in that group but it looks like he just got an extension at OU. I wonder if those teams will realize that just having an offensive "wunderkind" isn't enough, and that you actually need real talent like the Rams have to run that offense effectively.
Lincoln Riley is smart. He is building something there. For the vast majority, the NFL is fool’s gold. For the most part, NFL owners are adolescent idiots.
 

j-man

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here is my 02 cents
Ari wil shouild gase mia he wanted rosen in mia a year ago if not gase Freddie Kitchens: or bowles
cle gase peyton manning is trying to lobby him the job in cle if not gase McCarthy or toub
gb mcd or philben
tb moken or brice arins
nyj McCarthy or Bieniemy
den john harbaugh orchuck panagno pangno will allow us to keep our underrated ST coach from last season plus likey any future coach will have to deal with kubiak as the new OC gus bradley couild be the 3rd choice

ciny hue jackson or vance joseph
mia john harbaugh orMcCarthy Bieniemy
balt might go toub or Bieniemy