2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

benhogan

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Who is this guy? I'd be terrified if he was my team's GM:
The TL comp to Horford is laughable. Great passer? TL has 29 career assists over 1.5 seasons (55 games)

Seems like everyone forgets how damn efficient Kanter was before getting injured (+he rushed back, played injured - because they were thin up front).
Kanter as a back-up 5 playing against 2nd string centers for $5MM is a no-brainer. Add some bench 3pt shooting and he'd be even more effective.

I'd love for TL/VP to work but TL is unreliable & VP was a non-event.
 

lovegtm

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The TL comp to Horford is laughable. Great passer? TL has 29 career assists over 1.5 seasons (55 games)

Seems like everyone forgets how damn efficient Kanter was before getting injured (+he rushed back, played injured - because they were thin up front).
Kanter as a back-up 5 playing against 2nd string centers for $5MM is a no-brainer. Add some bench 3pt shooting and he'd be even more effective.

I'd love for TL/VP to work but TL is unreliable & VP was a non-event.
I think his point was that Theis was also not very playable early on, and that there’s a big learning curve for bigs.
 

lovegtm

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The one I didn’t get was every single person being down on Grant.

Like he’s far from a sure thing, but if he ever learns to shoot 3s at volume, his value skyrockets. And he has the exact profile of the type of guy who tends to add a 3 eventually.

Possibly NBA scouting is still somehow stuck on the tweener thing, even after countless counterexamples?
 

Montana Fan

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The one I didn’t get was every single person being down on Grant.

Like he’s far from a sure thing, but if he ever learns to shoot 3s at volume, his value skyrockets. And he has the exact profile of the type of guy who tends to add a 3 eventually.

Possibly NBA scouting is still somehow stuck on the tweener thing, even after countless counterexamples?
Is there any doubt that he is working right now? If the season restarts I expect we will see improvement from him just from digesting and working on what he's learned so far this season.
 

lovegtm

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Is there any doubt that he is working right now? If the season restarts I expect we will see improvement from him just from digesting and working on what he's learned so far this season.
He’s apparently living with Kemba in NC, so likely he’s had gym access the whole time.
 

BaseballJones

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Interesting Keith Smith article, interviewing rival teams about the Celtics.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/5/14/21258527/outside-thoughts-on-the-boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown
In contrast to Hollinger, most everyone still employed by NBA teams is medium to high on Langford, but think he’ll be blocked playing in Boston. I don’t see how that happens if he learns to shoot, but it could be an issue otherwise.
Even if Langford learns to shoot, which of Tatum and Brown is he going to play over?

I would think that if Langford becomes a shooter, the guy on the outside looking in is Hayward. So you could eventually run a lineup of:

PG - Kemba or his replacement
SG - Brown
SF - Langford
PF - Tatum
C - whomever

Tatum is a little small for that role in a traditional sense, but in today's NBA he's probably just fine there. There really is no "PF" spot anymore anyway....that's just a convenient way of putting them on a list.
 

lovegtm

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Even if Langford learns to shoot, which of Tatum and Brown is he going to play over?

I would think that if Langford becomes a shooter, the guy on the outside looking in is Hayward. So you could eventually run a lineup of:

PG - Kemba or his replacement
SG - Brown
SF - Langford
PF - Tatum
C - whomever

Tatum is a little small for that role in a traditional sense, but in today's NBA he's probably just fine there. There really is no "PF" spot anymore anyway....that's just a convenient way of putting them on a list.
Yeah, the Celtics (and most teams) treat the 2-4 as interchangeable positions, so Langford would replace one of Smart or Hayward. By the time Langford is ready, the former is going to get expensive and the latter is going to get old.

The Celtics are already very comfortable playing Brown and Tatum as the biggest non-center, and they're both only going to add muscle the next 5 years. Tatum, in particular, won't be undersized at all when he fills out--he'll have a length advantage on a lot of modern 4s, and his build can support a fair amount more weight.

Incidentally, Langford also projects to get a lot stronger. With the usual caveats about his shot being a huge question mark and development not being a sure thing, I imagine the team is drooling internally about the possibilities if he pans out. A 2-4 of Tatum/Brown/Good Romeo would be an incredibly easy core to fit pieces into. You could get away with very limited defensive 1s and bargain 5s.

tldr; I'm as high on Langford as he is on weed
 

nighthob

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Even if Langford learns to shoot, which of Tatum and Brown is he going to play over?

I would think that if Langford becomes a shooter, the guy on the outside looking in is Hayward. So you could eventually run a lineup of:

PG - Kemba or his replacement
SG - Brown
SF - Langford
PF - Tatum
C - whomever

Tatum is a little small for that role in a traditional sense, but in today's NBA he's probably just fine there. There really is no "PF" spot anymore anyway....that's just a convenient way of putting them on a list.
Or if Boston finds a way to turn Hayward into a wing that can similarly run the offense Langford’s shown sufficient quickness to guard the 1 spot. Or they go with a 1-4 alignment of Langford/Smart/Tatum/Brown and achieve the same result.
 

tbrown_01923

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Or if Boston finds a way to turn Hayward into a wing that can similarly run the offense Langford’s shown sufficient quickness to guard the 1 spot. Or they go with a 1-4 alignment of Langford/Smart/Tatum/Brown and achieve the same result.
I was thinking of guards Langford really shoudn;'t match up against defensively. E.g. - Fox might be a bit of a challnege for him. And there are a couple other super quick folks. Can we expect team defense to allow Langofrd to match up against those quick 1's?
 

nighthob

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As no one's matching up against the D'Aaron Foxes of the world I wouldn't worry about it too much.
 

Sprowl

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Is Langford necessarily a wing? He looks to me like a promising ballhandler, although still very RH-dominant. I can imagine him being slotted in behind Walker and Smart as point guard depth.

Langford certainly has the physical skills to guard most point guards, although his inexperience shows when he lunges for ball fakes. He's still just 20 years old, and nothing cures inexperience like... experience.
 

tbrown_01923

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As no one's matching up against the D'Aaron Foxes of the world I wouldn't worry about it too much.
I guess thats my point - (agreeing with you) that he shows enough potential as a defender to consider him potetially capable of being assigned most ball handlers.
 

lovegtm

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Is Langford necessarily a wing? He looks to me like a promising ballhandler, although still very RH-dominant. I can imagine him being slotted in behind Walker and Smart as point guard depth.

Langford certainly has the physical skills to guard most point guards, although his inexperience shows when he lunges for ball fakes. He's still just 20 years old, and nothing cures inexperience like... experience.
He’s a wing defensively who will end up guarding 1-3 and 4 on switches.

Offensively yeah, he’s more of a ballhandler.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, the Celtics (and most teams) treat the 2-4 as interchangeable positions, so Langford would replace one of Smart or Hayward. By the time Langford is ready, the former is going to get expensive and the latter is going to get old.

tldr; I'm as high on Langford as he is on weed
I'll go even highero_O

If Romeo steps up defensively & the C's don't add bench scoring, I wouldn't mind seeing Hayward play starters minutes (30mpg) but as a 6th man. Start the 1st and 3rd quarters with Langford and let Tatum, Kemba, Brown launch 95% of the early shots. Romeo (15-20mpg) applies high energy/physical defense on the opponents' best offensive wing.
 

tbrown_01923

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I agree i liked what I saw from his D in short minutes last year.

There is a history with Brown and Tatum earning their time with thier D (and terry too, who was more intense defensively prior to his final season here) and growing into more complete players from there. Maybe thats a roadmap langford can not only hear form the coach but the players too... Which is to say I think the culture is in place and therefore weight the sample more than its size woudl otherwise indicate it should be.
 

benhogan

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I agree i liked what I saw from his D in short minutes last year.

There is a history with Brown and Tatum earning their time with thier D (and terry too, who was more intense defensively prior to his final season here) and growing into more complete players from there. Maybe thats a roadmap langford can not only hear form the coach but the players too... Which is to say I think the culture is in place and therefore weight the sample more than its size woudl otherwise indicate it should be.
Before COVID-19 stoppage, Brad was using Romeo a bit more to close games.

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/25/nba-boston-celtics-romeo-langford-has-clamps/
 

PedroKsBambino

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If the reference is to Celts vs Bucks it would make sense...rankings something like

Giannis
Tatum
Brown/Middleton
Middleton/Brown
Walker
Hayward
Bledsoe/Smart
Smart/Bledsoe

One could credibly argue slots 2,3, 5,6,7 are Celts
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Brown for Middleton is kind of a no brainer if you ignore age and control.

Smart for Bledsoe is closer than people might think but I think you would be hard pressed to find a Cs fan to do it. But that might be true of Bucks fans too.
 

PedroKsBambino

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This year I think there’s a pretty good case for Middleton; Brown is already a better two-way player and the arrow is pointing strongly up. But Middleton’s shooting is pretty terrific. RPM is pretty close (favoring Middleton), and the thing I don’t know how to evaluate is what part of Middleton’s game right now is getting to play off of the Freak. He’s a terrific compliment and I have to think he’d lose something in a different structure.

I’d rather have Smart than Bledsoe. I also think in a series right now you would like Smart’s chances of coming up big a lot better than Bledsoe’s
 

Ale Xander

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If the reference is to Celts vs Bucks it would make sense...rankings something like

Giannis
Tatum
Brown/Middleton
Middleton/Brown
Walker
Hayward
Bledsoe/Smart
Smart/Bledsoe

One could credibly argue slots 2,3, 5,6,7 are Celts
No way Middleton is above Walker.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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No way Middleton is above Walker.
Maybe not in your green heart but statistically, he is a better player. Its pretty clear whether its shooting or defense.

Depending on the metric, such as PIPM (hi London!) you can make a case that Middleton is a top 10 player and certainly in the top 20.

Plus he is terrifying if you are a Cs fan. I still have PTSD watching him go full Curry on Boston during that series.
 

Ale Xander

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Maybe not in your green heart but statistically, he is a better player. Its pretty clear whether its shooting or defense.

Depending on the metric, such as PIPM (hi London!) you can make a case that Middleton is a top 10 player and certainly in the top 20.

Plus he is terrifying if you are a Cs fan. I still have PTSD watching him go full Curry on Boston during that series.
There's more to basketball than defense and 3pt shooting. Middleton isn't an elite defender anyway.
 

scottyno

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Middleton is both a better offensive and defensive player than Kemba, and also younger if we're talking a longer term than just this year.
 

Montana Fan

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Brown for Middleton is kind of a no brainer if you ignore age and control.

Smart for Bledsoe is closer than people might think but I think you would be hard pressed to find a Cs fan to do it. But that might be true of Bucks fans too.
I agree that Middleton is a very, very good player and would probably help the 20/21 team more than JB but long term, I'd much prefer to have JB. JB still has room to improve and I have no doubt he will. Combine his work ethic with his off court leadership and he's a guy I want to be the face of the franchise.

And I know I'm a homer but there's no way I would trade Smart for Bledsoe. Smart is the Stevens/Ainge/Celts culture and tone setter. There's a reason Stevens starts each season showing the new team Smart's defensive highlights.

Give me the younger duo.
 

nighthob

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Beyond all these reasons is the simple fact that Brown has a size/length/strength/athleticism package that Middleton can’t match in his most fevered wet dreams. Given Brown’s motor and work ethic there’s zero percent chance that anyone rational deals him for a short term improvement in team 3PFG%.
 

Euclis20

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Middleton is both a better offensive and defensive player than Kemba, and also younger if we're talking a longer term than just this year.
Middleton is a slightly more efficient shooter but Kemba is a far better offensive player overall (dominates the advanced stats). Over the last 5 years:

PPG: Kemba 22.5, Middleton 18.9
APG: Kemba 5.5, Middleton 4.1
TS%: Middleton: .575, Kemba .564
PER: Kemba: 21.0, Middleton: 17.5
OWS: Kemba: 27.7, Middleton: 16.4
OBPM: Kemba: 4.6, Middleton: 1.2
VORP: Kemba: 19.8, Middleton: 8.2

Kemba is far better at creating for himself and others, while also turning the ball over less frequently. Middleton is currently(?) having by far his best season, and even then they are almost even looking at the advanced numbers.
 

chilidawg

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RPM has them similar offensively, KM a little better defensively. PIPM has KW better offensively but KM far better defensively.

KW RPM 2.05/-.73; PIPM 3.6/-.8
KM RPM 2.19/-.20; PIPM 2.5/1.8

I'd agree that Kemba is a better facilitator. Middleton's scoring just seems hard to stop every time I watch him.
 

scottyno

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Middleton is a slightly more efficient shooter but Kemba is a far better offensive player overall (dominates the advanced stats). Over the last 5 years:

PPG: Kemba 22.5, Middleton 18.9
APG: Kemba 5.5, Middleton 4.1
TS%: Middleton: .575, Kemba .564
PER: Kemba: 21.0, Middleton: 17.5
OWS: Kemba: 27.7, Middleton: 16.4
OBPM: Kemba: 4.6, Middleton: 1.2
VORP: Kemba: 19.8, Middleton: 8.2

Kemba is far better at creating for himself and others, while also turning the ball over less frequently. Middleton is currently(?) having by far his best season, and even then they are almost even looking at the advanced numbers.
A lot of those numbers are skewed by the fact that Kemba had much higher usage the first 4 years of that sample because he was the unquestioned #1 guy on his team while Middleton was the clear #2. You're right though, I was more focusing on just this year, where Middleton has taken a big leap forward in his efficiency and Kemba is basically having a slightly lower usage version of the same year he had last year.
 

Kliq

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Middleton is a really efficient shooter, but he also plays with someone that pretty much has to be doubled at all times, as well as other good floor spacers. He is a great second scorer for Giannis because he is a knockdown shooter and a good passer that can swing the ball effectively and make quick decisions. He's also a versatile wing defender.

Kemba has the advantage of being a legitimate shot creator for himself and others in a way that Middleton just isn't. Middleton has advantages in efficiency and size, but the NBA values creators above all else. You can easily make a case for either, and I think Middleton is a great complimentary player if you have a super-duper star, but Walker is probably better if you actually need someone to be the leading scorer on your team.
 

Euclis20

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A lot of those numbers are skewed by the fact that Kemba had much higher usage the first 4 years of that sample because he was the unquestioned #1 guy on his team while Middleton was the clear #2. You're right though, I was more focusing on just this year, where Middleton has taken a big leap forward in his efficiency and Kemba is basically having a slightly lower usage version of the same year he had last year.
Having a higher usage rate over those first 4 years while having an identical TS% (.566 to .563) and a better turnover rate (12.3% for Middleton, 10% for Kemba) is a huge point in Kemba's favor. There isn't much of an argument for Middleton over Kemba that isn't based 100% on this season alone, which is pretty clearly a career year for Middleton. He's still a poor man's Klay Thompson, while Kemba was an AS game starter.
 

scottyno

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Having a higher usage rate over those first 4 years while having an identical TS% (.566 to .563) and a better turnover rate (12.3% for Middleton, 10% for Kemba) is a huge point in Kemba's favor. There isn't much of an argument for Middleton over Kemba that isn't based 100% on this season alone, which is pretty clearly a career year for Middleton. He's still a poor man's Klay Thompson, while Kemba was an AS game starter.
It helped that like the 6 best guards in the nba this year are all in the west
 

lovegtm

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Looking at contextless "efficiency" is a very efficient way to not do good analysis.
 

bigq

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He must have finally got a hoop put in at his house. I am so looking forward to a return to Celtics basketball.
 

pjheff

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So assuming complete health — and acknowledging the top six of the starters plus Smart — how would you rank Brad’s circle of trust from #7-#16 on the roster as the season ends and the playoffs commence?
 

bellowthecat

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7, 8, and 9 is some combination of Wanamaker, Kanter, and GWilliams. Once the playoffs start I could see Kanter's minutes plummeting. After that I am less sure. I think Romeo has passed Green on the depth chart, but has he passed Semi in Brad's eyes? At the bottom we have RWilliams, Edwards, and Poirer. I assume that Waters and Fall will be joining the team as well, but I haven't actually read anything about how guys on 2 way contracts are affected by the changes.
 

benhogan

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So assuming complete health — and acknowledging the top six of the starters plus Smart — how would you rank Brad’s circle of trust from #7-#16 on the roster as the season ends and the playoffs commence?
for the PLAYOFFS:

Theis (~27mpg) will share the 5 with Kanter (~16mpg) and TL (5mpg) - maybe a few minutes of Granite there depending on match-ups. (TL really doesn't deserve any minutes here and would be fine with him stapled to the bench)

Kemba, JT, JB, GH, Smart should play ~ 34-38mpg (score/situation dependent),
which is ~180 mpg out of 192 mpg from the 1-4 position.
3-4 of Kemba, JT, JB, GH, Smart should be on the floor at all times in the playoffs IMO.

That leaves ~12 mpg split between Wanamaker, Grant, Romeo, Semi

match-up/play/energy will dictate mpg (ie vs. Milwaukee I'd expect Semi to get more run since he has experience with Giannis)

I believe Romeo's defense surpassed Green, and when you're the #5 offensive option, defense matters more.

so that's 1-12.

13. Green
14. Waters
15. Edwards
16. VP
17. Fall

*edited because my math was originally off:rolleyes:
 
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pjheff

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7, 8, and 9 is some combination of Wanamaker, Kanter, and GWilliams. Once the playoffs start I could see Kanter's minutes plummeting. After that I am less sure. I think Romeo has passed Green on the depth chart, but has he passed Semi in Brad's eyes? At the bottom we have RWilliams, Edwards, and Poirer. I assume that Waters and Fall will be joining the team as well, but I haven't actually read anything about how guys on 2 way contracts are affected by the changes.
I think that Wanamaker and Grant are going to get minutes regardless of opponent, so I have them 7/8. Starting with Kanter at #9, usage will become more matchup dependent, and I’d expect Brad to call on physically mature veterans like Ojeleye (#10) and Green (#11) before potentially immature youngsters like Time Lord (#12) and Langford (#13), with the deep bench comprised of Edwards (#14) and Poirier (#15) along with the two-ways Waters (#16) and Fall (#17).
 

JakeRae

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There is a consensus statistically that Kanter and Time Lord are better players than anyone else on the bench (non-Smart division). I’d expect them to share time based on matchups and health. For the small options, I think it’s very much an open competition between Romeo, Wanamaker, Ojeleye, and Green. Romeo is the guy who could seize that role outright in the 8 game pre-playoffs stretch as the rest are largely known quantities.

Grant Williams is hard to find time for as his minutes should be squeezed by increased minutes for the core wings, but he could get spot minutes. He was starting to get more run while Kanter was hobbled, and I’m a believer in him as a rotation player next year, but with the time off I expect Kanter to come back strong enough that he largely has no real playoff rotation role except as deep depth.

The bottom line is that our bench is pretty dreadful once you dip below the top 7. In elimination games, I would not be at all surprised to see us shorten to a 7 man rotation or maybe play one of the bench smalls 5 minutes or so.