2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
The other thing with Semi is that he knows the defensive concepts: i.e., where on the court switches are made; when he has to hedge; etc. While he might get beat, he's usually in the correct spot, which is important for defensive continuity.
Semi is trying to be aggressive. Hopefully he can take a leap to aggressive and mildly productive.
Semi is trying to be aggressive. Hopefully he can take a leap to aggressive and mildly productive.
These numbers are pretty striking. Hayward is driving to the hoop more this year than Kyrie did last year:
I hope we'll get to the point where every time Hayward has a bad stretch it'll be chalked up to being a bad stretch.
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1189857945217118208
I hope we'll get to the point where every time Hayward has a bad stretch it'll be chalked up to being a bad stretch.
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1189857945217118208
Nice stats. GH is also shooting 58% on 3Ps and against the Bucks, I felt like he could have hit the mid-range pull-up off the PnR versus MIL's drop coverage all night.
However, I miss the GH that could credibly guard KD. Seeing İlyasova take him down low and just bully him for a layup made me sad. But it's still early so I am hopeful!
if Semi would just set back screens, cut better, move the ball and attack the rim against bigger defenders that would be enough on offense. His 3pt form and results speak for themselves (not good). The Celtics will always have better shooting options on the floor than him. No defender respects him, nor should they as a corner statue.
BUT his defense against guys like Giannis, Simmons, Griffin, etc is valuable enough for being a veteran deep bench/12th man on a cheap contract
The Hayward we've seen this season is the Hayward everyone has been hoping to see. The expert consensus all along was that he would need a year to heal physically, and another year to get back to form, and that seems to have held true. He may never get back to being the 2016-17 Hayward that earned a max contract, but this team doesn't need him to be at that level either, and the Payroll Efficiency Title was never in play for this season anyway.
And I was wrong about Semi.
And I was wrong about Semi.
a) KD is a weird cover--he's not very strong, so Jaylen actually did a credible job on him even when Jaylen was younger and bullied easily in the post.
buuuutttt....
b) You're right, Hayward looks way skinnier now than in his Utah days. He needs to get back on the juice pronto.
It was a fun win but I think we saw how both teams win and lose against each other in a sort of tale of two halves.
As good as they looked in the second half, they were equally brutal in the 1st. The on ball defense was atrocious and the help was both too small and too late. It was basically a testament to Marcus Smart that they weren’t so hopelessly blown out that they could mount a comeback and eventually win.
I can’t really explain the second half well. In the 1st, the Bucks kept a center sagging in the lane and we kept driving into it and getting closed up. I didn’t notice much different in the second but I think just making more outside shots opened the lane a bit more. Or the defensive intensity from the Bucks just dropped. And Smart clearly is the man to guard Giannis, he’s quick enough and strong enough to deal with Giannis’ constant off arm pushing that he gets away with and the threat of the charge foul slows Giannis down a lot more than anything else.
I guess I’m just a bit measured because our limitations were definitely on display last night. Big teams are clearly going to be a problem unless we are making shots. And we don’t have a lot of great shooters so we are really vulnerable when guys aren’t making and we have to hunt for the hot hand.
As good as they looked in the second half, they were equally brutal in the 1st. The on ball defense was atrocious and the help was both too small and too late. It was basically a testament to Marcus Smart that they weren’t so hopelessly blown out that they could mount a comeback and eventually win.
I can’t really explain the second half well. In the 1st, the Bucks kept a center sagging in the lane and we kept driving into it and getting closed up. I didn’t notice much different in the second but I think just making more outside shots opened the lane a bit more. Or the defensive intensity from the Bucks just dropped. And Smart clearly is the man to guard Giannis, he’s quick enough and strong enough to deal with Giannis’ constant off arm pushing that he gets away with and the threat of the charge foul slows Giannis down a lot more than anything else.
I guess I’m just a bit measured because our limitations were definitely on display last night. Big teams are clearly going to be a problem unless we are making shots. And we don’t have a lot of great shooters so we are really vulnerable when guys aren’t making and we have to hunt for the hot hand.
Very astute analysis, but no factoring the absence of Jaylen? Clearly a major win despite the fact that arguably the best all-around player was unavailable.
Honestly Jaylen may have made it worse. He’s a good player but one of the things I think they suffered from last year is getting enough looks for enough guys to find the guy who can win his matchup and carry scoring a bit. If Jaylen plays, they may have taken too long last night to get back to Hayward and Tatum and their hot shooting got everyone going. I feel like last nights game was similar to many we saw last year with Kyrie and Jaylen playing but now we didn’t have to cycle through everyone making a run at being the alpha on the night so they got some good players enough looks to get through it.
In the 2nd half on offense they started doing more of what they have to do against big teams: constant motion/weaving. They also let Kemba be Kemba, which they lean on more late and less early.
The big news here is that for all the Celtics flaws, they look like they can compete with anything in the East right now except for Philly’s defense. This is big news because people thought the defense especially would be in trouble without Horford and Baynes, and that doesn’t seem to have hurt on that end as much as losing Mr. Chemistry helped.
You are among Semi to improve basketball skills he just doesn’t have. He tries, reasonably frequently (multiple times in yesterday’s game alone), to attack the basket, and it is cringeworthy. I think it is way more likely that he eventually gets his three point shooting percentage up to something useful than it is that he develops the skills to finish around the basket when not 100% wide open.
While I love Baynes/Horford, losing them won't be nearly the downgrade defensively as people/media have tried to spin for several reasons:
1. Horford was not nearly as effective of a defender playing 93% of his minutes at the 5 last season, especially playing next to MaMo in the frontcourt. Look at his advanced defensive numbers with MaMo. He was "below-average" Al defensively last season with him.
2. Baynes was barely used by Brad due to injuries and AB not being part of the small ball plan.
3. Now if Brad had used Al Horford at the 4 for more than 7% of his minutes, had used Baynes more at the 5 with Al, and had used MaMo as a role-playing offensive weapon off the bench, then losing Al/Aron would have been a huge defensive downgrade this season. BUT it's not because they were misused, paired with the wrong players, and both were injured during last season.
4. Losing MaMo, regardless of what the NBA media or others will tell you, will be a huge defensive upgrade this season. MaMo provided zero help on rotations, which led to a conga line to the rim when he played, which left Horford and others exposed. No wonder Danny didn't bother to lob a call or make an offer at any price.
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
MIL shot 9-17 from 3P (I believe; from memory) and something like 6 different players hit 3Ps. They were at one point 2-22 in the second half. That was pretty much the game there.
Was MIL's shooting because of poor/good defense or because they just made/miss shots? I'm sure the Cs are looking at how closely guarded the various shots are. But from my nekid eye, it seemed that in the 1st half the Cs were overcommiting (I remember one play when three guys ended up on Giannis, who then threw a hockey assist that landed with Caughnoton for a wide open 3P. I think they did a better job maintaining their defensive spacing so the perimeter players could do multiple contests.
But again, that's just the feeling I got while I was watching the game.
I think your feeling is mostly right. It was a combination of Milwaukee being cold and the Celtics’ rotating much more crisply, as well as gang-rebounding more.
A lot of the times in games between good teams, the adjustment is just “try harder, execute better.” It sounds simple, but it’s a real thing we see over and over again.
My best guess is that it’s because before the game, *what* you need to try harder on is abstract. Once an opponent hits you in the mouth, you have a better idea of what exactly you need to do better. The Celtics had a lot of uncertainty coming in as to how they’d be able to guard Giannis, and once Smart showed he could do it, they could get other things straight.
Milwaukee is gonna miss Brogdon. They’re clearly a rung below Philly now imo—Giannis vs Embiid is not a big advantage matchup for them, and Philly will close down that shooting room they usually have.
I still maintain that the wretched free-throw shooting that night played more of a factor than Philly's defense. I thought they had a solid plan in attacking their bigs and putting them in foul trouble.
It will be interesting to see MIL v PHI. PHI as constructed is going to give Giannis fits - there's no team that can build a better wall to the basket - but OTOH, PHI doesn't seem to have the players who are going to beat MIL's drop coverage on defense. It will probably end being decided on who can get out in transition more.
The bad FT shooting is why they fell behind in the rockfight. Philly’s D is why it was a rockfight in the first place.
I wish that Semi would follow the Rob Williams approach on offense. Swing the ball fast, set good screens, space well. Driving hard to the rim against longer guys is a losing proposition. He finishes like a drunk Crowder.
He doesn't need to score to impact the offense. He needs to be a threat when the defense completely disregards him, but otherwise just find a way to make others' jobs easier.
Yeah, it's not really a fair comparison though. TL has higher offensive awareness and passing ability. The "space well" part is also easier for him, since he has real gravity on his rim runs. No one on D really gives a shit where Semi is spaced to.
I'm not asking him to be Rob. He can't crash the rim. By spacing, I mean "stay the fuck out of the way".
If the defense grants him an impeded path to the rim, he should take it. If there's a screen that'll help others, do it.
Otherwise, do what Rob does. Hot potato that shit. Stop flinging yourself into traffic like a puppy or launching contested threes.
Seconded on this. For the second consecutive game, Brogdon was 2 rebounds shy of a triple-double and he isn't even playing huge minutes (last night just 32),
Yeah, I don't want to re-litigate Kemba vs. Brogdon (I think Kemba's a better fit, but time will tell). But one thing is for sure: Brogdon was a great fit in Milwaukee, and letting him go during Giannis' prime is brutal. How do you re-sign with an organization that lets guys like that go at a time you're competing for a championship?
I suspect your feelings on this might change once Enes Kanter is back on the court.
I will maintain that Brogdon isn't only about "fit" but a 2nd tier elite level player who was overshadowed by Giannis last year. It seems like some are taking this to mean I don't like Kemba which isn't true at all......I'm just super high on Brogdon over the next several seasons.
I'm guessing that this time without Kanter will allow Brad to see how the other bigs best fit, so he can then slot in Kanter in the ideal (for him) spots. Likely against non-stretch bigs. I remember reading in the Hayward piece in Players Tribune how it was his (GH's) opinion that Kanter is the best offensive rebounder "in the world," while that is likely hyperbole, it nonetheless likely remains true in essence, that EK will add a huge presence on the offensive glass. He will also likely be a great low-post option.
In a vacuum Horford/Baynes are very good defensive players, Brad basically misused them last season and then when he tried to correct it Baynes got injured.
No doubt, Kanter scares me, and Dec 15th is the day I have circled when Danny addresses the need for a defense-first 5 (unless one of Theis, VP, Enis or TL surprise us). If Brad hides Kanter on the 2nd unit (like he should have w/ MaMo) we can probably get away with him against less offensively efficient centers
Sounds like Scalabrine. The offense seemed to function quite well when he was playing, even though he was barely a part of it.
Great if he improves his 3pt shot fantastic. I said: screen, pass and move on offense - basically any NBA player can do that. AND also said: "The Celtics will always have better shooting options on the floor than him." So I wouldn't want him to attack the rim unless he had an open lane. He'd be the 4th or 5th offensive option on the floor.
My overall point was you don't CUT him for a project like Max Strus, since he can guard a certain type of player in small doses (ie Giannis, Bron, Simmons, Kawhi). Semi is also cheap, under control for another season, experienced and is a deep bench option.
Credit to lovegtm for rethinking that stance.
I think TL is at least part of the answer for defense at the 5. His 4 game numbers are great, best defensive rating, steal % and defensive rebounding % on the team (under 7'5 category), 2nd in block%. +/- numbers would suggest that it's not just a mirage as they're excellent as well. He may struggle against big low post guys, but there's not many of those and that seems to be one thing Kanter does do well. He'll be interesting to keep an eye on going forward.
A TL continuation/breakout would be the ultimate home run. I'm in favor of Brad upping his minutes/role. I've been against him being sent to Maine for minutes against G-League chumps. I'd expect some TL stumbles and game thread overreaction, but its a cost worth paying.
Yeah, will be interesting to see how Brogdon plays out. I think we can both agree that letting him walk (at around only $20M too) was a huge unforced error that may well come back to haunt them wrt Giannis.
There's no doubt he's a great offensive rebounder. He stinks on defense. My response was to the thought that losing Horford/Baynes won't be nearly the downgrade defensively as people/media have tried to spin. Of course Kanter is a better rebounder than them. They're both miles ahead of him as defenders.
And it's going to be really hard to hide him defensively, even against bench units, when they're already trying to hide Kemba and Carsen Edwards when they're on the floor.
I mean...then they probably won’t play him as much? I don’t think the team is super wedded to Enes Kanter as the future.
Or in the present. The only game Kanter played, they lost. If he had a mean streak Kanter might have some value as an enforcer, but he seems like a nice guy. Let him come in for 15 mpg against the other team's second unit, set picks and hit the offensive glass. They don't need him to defend other centers. Did either of the Lopez twins do any damage last night?
Jesus, I'm glad that they're 3-1 and not 1-3.
They have enough good defensive players now to run out a lineup full of defense only guys. Finding a place to get Kanter minutes without falling apart altogether shouldn't be a huge problem.
They have enough good defensive players now to run out a lineup full of defense only guys. Finding a place to get Kanter minutes without falling apart altogether shouldn't be a huge problem.
Well, I agree with this, for sure. Getting the three at a decent percentage is what would turn him from a deep bench matchup guy to a top 9 guy. But just as he is he is a good tool for a coach to have in the toolbox.
Well the only game they lost was to a very good Philly team on the road. I don't think that in of it self tells you anything about Kanter. If anything I came away thinking maybe he's a guy who can be effective defensively against physical low post guys like Embiid.
With TL looking good and Theis a decent contributor that's not a bad 3 man rotation that you can use in a matchup specific way.
I'd be surprised if his role changed at all from what they had planned when they signed him. I don't think a whole lot has changed four games into the season.
I don’t think the team is super wedded to Enes Kanter as the future either. But I think he plays quite a bit in this regular season. Feels like a decent topic in the 2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread.
Generally agree, but one thing that might count as a change in the first four games is how playable the two Williamses looked. More minutes for TL, and being more willing to play small ball with Grant at 5, could cut down Enes’ minutes a smidge.
He is playing the Horford role but has a better handle. Facilitating the offense.
Yeah, not trying to shut down discussion on the topic, it’s definitely a valid one.
I guess I see it more as a Greg Monroe situation—they wooed Monroe on the buyout market, and then quickly discovered how limited he was. After that, Monroe played only very, very situationally.
I do agree that they’ll try Kanter in a variety of roles to see if something does fit, probably to the degree that some people here get frustrated at times in the regular season.
It seems to me that Kanter's role depends on Kanter. As with Greg Monroe, if he plays poorly there is no reason to give him minutes that he hasn't earned, particularly at the defensive end. And on offense, a big guy clogging up the middle is not something this group of slashers needs on offense.
What Ainge really needs is one of those medieval torture racks so that he can stretch Grant Williams out to 6-8 or so.
What Ainge really needs is one of those medieval torture racks so that he can stretch Grant Williams out to 6-8 or so.
Or one of those mad scientist machines that puts Kanter's low-post moves in Williams' body and Williams' defensive skills in Kanter.