Where are you seeing this?The rumor from people in the know is Carlo's deal is done. My original guess was 4.5 per
I would do this in a heartbeat. Ehlers is still an emerging player and to get rid of Backes would be huge. This would allow them to probably retain Krug.Carlo would be foolish to take a bridge deal right now, IMO. He's coming off a run where he was one of the top shutdown defenders in the postseason, and showed some good offensive output in the Cup Finals of all places. I doubt his value will ever be higher, unless he all of a sudden finds a consistent way to get shots through on net.
Strawpoll: If you can move Carlo + Backes (post-7/1 with a guaranteed buyout) for Nikolaj Ehlers, do you do it?
Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games.Ehlers the LH LW of the 37 points at 6m per and his 0g in 21 playoff games will surely be the missing piece you give up a cornerstone 22 year old D man for
Do you have the analytics on Ehlers being a play driver? Also DeBrusk is on his ELC so that comparison is weak.Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games.That's a better ppg rate than DeBrusk(DeBrusk was very slightly better, but basicall the same, I can't do math), he's younger than DeBrusk, and a better all around play driver.
Carlo is not a cornerstone player. He'll never be as good as McAvoy is right now.
Carlo may not be a cornerstone player(he is definitely a top 4 guy though), but I'm not in the business of giving up someone that young who played that well on the biggest stage. There's a roster crunch coming, but I want Carlo on this team moving forward due to his age and rising ability.Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games.That's a better ppg rate than DeBrusk(DeBrusk was very slightly better, but basicall the same, I can't do math), he's younger than DeBrusk, and a better all around play driver.
Carlo is not a cornerstone player. He'll never be as good as McAvoy is right now.
Moving Miller would do it alone. Call McAvoy 7.25, Carlo 4.5, Heinen 2.5 and you're 2.25 over the cap. Miller relieves 2.5Before we go chasing hypotheticals, what do we think we will need in cap space to complete/resign players?
Yeah I think Ehlers is your run of the mill middle 6 LW and he makes 6 mil. They don't need that at all.They aren't different transactions inasmuch as the Bruins may not have cap space to afford Carlo, Backes, and Krug. But you've made it clear that you would take Carlo, Backes + futures over Ehlers and Krug anyway.
But Lindell was coming off a 2yr bridge deal at 2.2 AAV. Add that into the Esa deal and you would have an 8yr deal at 5M. I'd certainly live with that for Carlo.I think you’re looking at a lot closer to $8m AAV for McAvoy unless you offer 2 years, $7m AAV or something. And even then, given his heart condition, he’s gotta be looking for a max term, max guaranteed dollar deal - not to mention Jacobs is another obstacle assuming the deal can’t get fully insured.
Carlo I could see at closer to $5.5m given the Lindell deal as a comp. Just gut feeling but I hope I’m wrong.
Miller has had two fractured kneecaps, so I don’t think he’s moving for now, especially w Moore starting on LTIR.
I posed it as a straw-poll because I don’t know which way I’d go on it. I assume the B’s would have to give up futures or retain on Backes to get it done, which gives me a good amount of pause - as does Carlo’s stellar defensive play across like 100+ games this year
Colorado is another option. They are about $17 million below this year's cap floor and have less than $30 million on next year's cap. They do have a ton of RFA/UFA to take care of next offseason, but they could easily buy out Backes and only Rantanen looks to be getting a big contract. I know they want to spend big this offseason with a Panarin or a Zuccarrello, but they will still have the money to take on Backes' contract.The cshea daily Backes take:
Maybe Ottawa is a viable option? I’ve always assumed he wouldn’t waive to go there via trade, but I hadn’t considered the waivers angle. We’ve talked about burying him in Providence which doesn’t clear much cap space, but to do so, he needs to go on waivers. As of right now, Ottawa is $11 million under the cap floor for this season, and only has about $20 million committed to their 2020-2021 cap, $5 million of which belongs to Marian Gaborik. They need to spend a ton (like ~$45 million) next year, to get to the cap floor. I wonder if Ottawa would seriously consider grabbing him off waivers after the bonus is paid on 7/1, or they could use it to threaten him into agree to a trade? Ottawa has to take on some bad contracts to get there, I’d imagine. After 7/1, Backes carries a significantly higher cap hit than the actual cash owed. Most of the other bad contracts floating around have real money left to pay (Lucic, Eriksson, Neal).
I don’t know, food for thought, I guess.
I doubt OTT would have interest. Won't be hard for them to get to the floor this year given they need to sign an entire line and have RFAs in Colin White and Cody Ceci. Next year Chabot is going to get paid, a lot.Yeah, I listed Colorado as a possible trade destination. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble getting to the floor- Rantanten, Kerfoot and Compher will get them either there or close enough. Maybe they have interest if they whiff on some FA’s and look to weaponize their cap space.
My Ottawa hypothetical was more or less just wondering if they would value the contract enough to where they would pick him up off waivers.
These numbers on Carlo seem off to me. Sanheim just signed for 2 years, $3.25 per. He's a pretty close comp to Carlo (better offensively, worse defensively). one year older coming off his ELC. Lindell is signing his third contract, his prior contract, adjusted for inflation, is similar to Sanheim's. Nuse signed for 2 x $3.2 last year, Morrisey 2 X $3.15, Montour 2 X $3.387, Pullock 2x$2. I think that Chyhcrun contract is the ceiling but that has a lot more term.I think you’re looking at a lot closer to $8m AAV for McAvoy unless you offer 2 years, $7m AAV or something. And even then, given his heart condition, he’s gotta be looking for a max term, max guaranteed dollar deal - not to mention Jacobs is another obstacle assuming the deal can’t get fully insured.
Carlo I could see at closer to $5.5m given the Lindell deal as a comp. Just gut feeling but I hope I’m wrong.
Miller has had two fractured kneecaps, so I don’t think he’s moving for now, especially w Moore starting on LTIR.
I posed it as a straw-poll because I don’t know which way I’d go on it. I assume the B’s would have to give up futures or retain on Backes to get it done, which gives me a good amount of pause - as does Carlo’s stellar defensive play across like 100+ games this year
This is a great response. He's certainly better defensively but they are all better offensively, which pays more.It's a good counterpoint, and the more I think about it, the more I think I'm letting Carlo's stellar play by the eye test sway where I think his number will end up.
Looking at their relative regular season (and playoff) ice times, Lindell is very much on the higher end of usage relative to Carlo, and the others you listed (while on bridge deals) are all higher on the usage end than Carlo - as an aside, Lindell's also partially carried by Klingberg.
On the flip side, I'd maintain that none of Sanheim, Morrissey, Montour, or Pulock are as good as solid defensively. Chychrun is likely the best overall comp - Carlo being a year older shouldn't make too big of a difference. TOI numbers from '18-'19 below for posterity
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He'd be a perfect fit to krejci's RW in the short term but I think he will get too much for their cap situation.I know people would lose their minds due to age but if you could get Pavelski to take a 2 year deal I would offer him as much as you possibly can and then figure it out
Vladar and Keyser, I think you mean. McIntyre is a UFA who I'm not sure they're going to bring back. Vladar and Keyser are both pretty young and not ready to play in the NHL if one of Tuukka/Halak gets hurt.Why would they be looking for a goalie? Keyser and McIntyre should split time in Providence and Halak is under contract to back up Rask.
Assume the goalie add is for depth in Providence? Don't see any reason to mess with Rask/Halak combo.Sweeney talking free agency...he says they’ll be adding on 7/1, but the RFA’s are kinda holding things up.
- They’ve extended an offer to Acciari (ugh) and have talked to Johansson’s camp
- Looking to add RW and a goalie
I think he's a similar value player. Maybe you can get him for less, since more of his value is defensive. But he should be in that ballparkWith Kapanen and Johnsson both officially signed in TOR where does that put Heinen?
Heinen has a bit longer resume but not as much top end production. Does Heinen get more than 3M per year?
I don't think I'd extend beyond 3/10.5 for Heinen.
This feels like the most likely outcome on the RW front. They aren’t a ton of options on the market. Seems they’d like Johansson back but money could be tight. I like Joonas Donskoi from SJS, but he’s a bit of an analytics darling and that’s created some buzz so he might end up out of their price range. I’d take a flyer on Corey Perry on a 1-year deal, but sounds like there’s a ton of interest in him. B’s haven’t been linked to anyone other than Johansson, but they seem to be good at keeping things under wraps this time a year, so who knows.I really wouldn't mind if they looked at the 2/3RW role the way they did the 3C last season. Give some of the younger guys a chance, even if they're in over their heads, and make a deal midseason if it doesn't work out. I think at least one of Studnicka/Steen are right shots who should be on the NHL roster, unless the organization really feels they'd be better off developmentally in Providence. Bjork/Senyshyn are also long shots to be NHL ready, but I wouldn't expect anything from either of them.
Between the four of them, it's not crazy to hope someone will grab the spot. And it's not the end of the world if they don't. They'd still have a pretty deep forward group.