2019-2020 Bruins

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Bruins schedule is out. Columbus Day matinee vs. Anaheim. Blues comes to town in October on a Saturday night. Black Friday matinee vs. Rangers!! New Year's Eve matinee at the Fighting Subbans. 10 day break at the end of January seemingly is the All-Star Break. Living on LI, seeing that all 4 games at the Rangers and Islanders are on the weekends are amazing.

October
3 at Dallas 8:30
5 at Arizona 9:00
8 at Vegas 10:00
10 at Colorado 9:00
12 vs NJ 7:00
14 vs Anaheim 1:00
17 vs TB 7:00
19 at Toronto 7:00(HNIC)
22 vs Toronto 7:00
26 vs. STL 7:00
27 at Rangers 7:00
29 vs. SJ 7:00

November
2 vs. OTT 7:00(HNIC)
4 vs. PIT 7:00
5 at MTL 7:00
8 at DET 7:30
10 vs. PHI 7:00
12 vs. FLA 7:00
15 at TOR 7:00
16 vs. WSH 7:00
19 at NJ 7:00
21 vs. BUF 7:00
23 vs. MIN 7:00
26 at MTL 7:00
27 at Ottawa
29(BF) vs. Rangers 1:00

December
1 vs. MTL 7:00
3 vs. CAR 7:00
5 vs. CHI 7:00
7 vs. COL 7:00
9 at OTT 7:30
11 at WSH 7:00
12 at TB 7:00
14 at FLA 7:00
17 vs. LA 7:00
19 vs. NYI 7:00
21 vs. NSH 7:00
23 vs. WSH 7:00
27 at BUF 7:00
29 vs BUF 7:00
31 at NJ 1:00

January
2 vs. CBJ 7:00
4 vs. EDM 1:00
7 at NSH 8:00
9 vs. WPG 7:00
11 at NYI 7:00
13 at PHI 7:00
14 at CBJ 7:00
16 vs. PIT 7:00
19 at PIT 12:30
21 vs. VGK 7:00
31 at WPG 7:00

February
1 at MIN 8:00
4 vs VAN 7:00
5 at CHI 8:00
8 vs. ARI 6:00
9 at DET 12:30
12 vs. MTL 7:30
15 vs DET 1:00
16 at NYR 3:30
19 at EDM 8:30
21 at CAL 10:00
22 at VAN 10:00(HNIC)
25 vs CAL 10:00
27 vs. DAL 7:00
29 at NYI 1:00

March
3 at TB 7:00
5 at FLA 7:00
7 vs TB 7:00
10 at PHI 7:00
13 at BUF 7:00
14 vs. TOR 7:00(HNIC)
16 vs. CBJ 7:00
18 at ANA 10:00
19 at LAK 10:30
21 at SJ 10:30
24 vs. DET 7:00
26 vs OTT 7:00
28 vs. FLA 7:00
31 at CAR 7:00

April
2 at STL 8:00
4 vs. CAR 7:00
 
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jsinger121

@jsinger121
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Carlo would be foolish to take a bridge deal right now, IMO. He's coming off a run where he was one of the top shutdown defenders in the postseason, and showed some good offensive output in the Cup Finals of all places. I doubt his value will ever be higher, unless he all of a sudden finds a consistent way to get shots through on net.

Strawpoll: If you can move Carlo + Backes (post-7/1 with a guaranteed buyout) for Nikolaj Ehlers, do you do it?
I would do this in a heartbeat. Ehlers is still an emerging player and to get rid of Backes would be huge. This would allow them to probably retain Krug.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
Ehlers the LH LW of the 37 points at 6m per and his 0g in 21 playoff games will surely be the missing piece you give up a cornerstone 22 year old D man for
 

veritas

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Ehlers the LH LW of the 37 points at 6m per and his 0g in 21 playoff games will surely be the missing piece you give up a cornerstone 22 year old D man for
Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games. That's a better ppg rate than DeBrusk (DeBrusk was very slightly better, but basicall the same, I can't do math), he's younger than DeBrusk, and a better all around play driver.

Carlo is not a cornerstone player. He'll never be as good as McAvoy is right now.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games. That's a better ppg rate than DeBrusk (DeBrusk was very slightly better, but basicall the same, I can't do math), he's younger than DeBrusk, and a better all around play driver.

Carlo is not a cornerstone player. He'll never be as good as McAvoy is right now.
Do you have the analytics on Ehlers being a play driver? Also DeBrusk is on his ELC so that comparison is weak.
Carlo vs McAvoy is a strawman.
 

RedOctober3829

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Ehlers is a very very good player, however you'd like to cherry pick stats. He only played 62 games. That's a better ppg rate than DeBrusk (DeBrusk was very slightly better, but basicall the same, I can't do math), he's younger than DeBrusk, and a better all around play driver.

Carlo is not a cornerstone player. He'll never be as good as McAvoy is right now.
Carlo may not be a cornerstone player(he is definitely a top 4 guy though), but I'm not in the business of giving up someone that young who played that well on the biggest stage. There's a roster crunch coming, but I want Carlo on this team moving forward due to his age and rising ability.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
An elite D corps let's you get away with mediocre goaltending. They've got a couple of nice goalie prospects in the system but goalies take forever. There might be a gap after Rask where the D will have to carry.
 

veritas

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I'm not saying I'd trade Carlo for Ehlers, I don't think it makes sense because they're not solving any positional problems they have, and arguably making them worse. But Ehlers is a legit player and if you can get rid of Backes I think it would be a good trade, in a vacuum.

Can't embed because it's patreon only, but hockeyviz has Ehlers at +8% driving xG, and -5% at preventing xG (negative is good on defense). DeBrusk is pretty neutral driving play on both ends (-1% and -3%). Both are elite at drawing penalties, and very good shooters. DeBrusk grades better on the PP, but those are probably too small sample sizes to be meaningful.

For a hypothetical, I'll be very generous and say that DeBrusk is as good as Ehlers. Now flip the queston, would you rather Carlo and Backes' contract, or Jake Debrusk?
 

biff_hardbody

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Apr 27, 2016
189
Except you'd also be getting rid of Backes. And they don't have Carlo, they need to resign him. Oversimplifying a bit, but the question really becomes would you rather have Carlo (at what AAV?), Backes, and whatever futures they can get for Krug or Ehlers and Krug?
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
Krug I would move for picks as a completely different transaction. I don't think he has the value the average Bruins fan think he has though.
 

Haunted

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Aug 23, 2006
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Before we go chasing hypotheticals, what do we think we will need in cap space to complete/resign players?
 

biff_hardbody

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Apr 27, 2016
189
They aren't different transactions inasmuch as the Bruins may not have cap space to afford Carlo, Backes, and Krug. But you've made it clear that you would take Carlo, Backes + futures over Ehlers and Krug anyway.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
They aren't different transactions inasmuch as the Bruins may not have cap space to afford Carlo, Backes, and Krug. But you've made it clear that you would take Carlo, Backes + futures over Ehlers and Krug anyway.
Yeah I think Ehlers is your run of the mill middle 6 LW and he makes 6 mil. They don't need that at all.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
With Miller on the roster:
McAvoy 7.25
Carlo 4.5
Heinen 2.5

1,496,666 over the cap

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Krejci - X
Heinen - Coyle - X
Nordstrom - Kuraly - Wagner

Chara - McAvoy
Krug - Carlo
Grzelcyk - Clifton

Backes
Miller
Kampfer
IR: Moore
 

PedroSpecialK

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I think you’re looking at a lot closer to $8m AAV for McAvoy unless you offer 2 years, $7m AAV or something. And even then, given his heart condition, he’s gotta be looking for a max term, max guaranteed dollar deal - not to mention Jacobs is another obstacle assuming the deal can’t get fully insured.

Carlo I could see at closer to $5.5m given the Lindell deal as a comp. Just gut feeling but I hope I’m wrong.

Miller has had two fractured kneecaps, so I don’t think he’s moving for now, especially w Moore starting on LTIR.

I posed it as a straw-poll because I don’t know which way I’d go on it. I assume the B’s would have to give up futures or retain on Backes to get it done, which gives me a good amount of pause - as does Carlo’s stellar defensive play across like 100+ games this year
 

j44thor

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I think you’re looking at a lot closer to $8m AAV for McAvoy unless you offer 2 years, $7m AAV or something. And even then, given his heart condition, he’s gotta be looking for a max term, max guaranteed dollar deal - not to mention Jacobs is another obstacle assuming the deal can’t get fully insured.

Carlo I could see at closer to $5.5m given the Lindell deal as a comp. Just gut feeling but I hope I’m wrong.

Miller has had two fractured kneecaps, so I don’t think he’s moving for now, especially w Moore starting on LTIR.

I posed it as a straw-poll because I don’t know which way I’d go on it. I assume the B’s would have to give up futures or retain on Backes to get it done, which gives me a good amount of pause - as does Carlo’s stellar defensive play across like 100+ games this year
But Lindell was coming off a 2yr bridge deal at 2.2 AAV. Add that into the Esa deal and you would have an 8yr deal at 5M. I'd certainly live with that for Carlo.
Unless he signs for 6-7yrs I find it hard to believe Carlo is going to get more than 4.
3X3.5 or 4X4 seems reasonable given his very limited bargaining position.
 

cshea

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The cshea daily Backes take:

Maybe Ottawa is a viable option? I’ve always assumed he wouldn’t waive to go there via trade, but I hadn’t considered the waivers angle. We’ve talked about burying him in Providence which doesn’t clear much cap space, but to do so, he needs to go on waivers. As of right now, Ottawa is $11 million under the cap floor for this season, and only has about $20 million committed to their 2020-2021 cap, $5 million of which belongs to Marian Gaborik. They need to spend a ton (like ~$45 million) next year, to get to the cap floor. I wonder if Ottawa would seriously consider grabbing him off waivers after the bonus is paid on 7/1, or they could use it to threaten him into agree to a trade? Ottawa has to take on some bad contracts to get there, I’d imagine. After 7/1, Backes carries a significantly higher cap hit than the actual cash owed. Most of the other bad contracts floating around have real money left to pay (Lucic, Eriksson, Neal).

I don’t know, food for thought, I guess.
 

RedOctober3829

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The cshea daily Backes take:

Maybe Ottawa is a viable option? I’ve always assumed he wouldn’t waive to go there via trade, but I hadn’t considered the waivers angle. We’ve talked about burying him in Providence which doesn’t clear much cap space, but to do so, he needs to go on waivers. As of right now, Ottawa is $11 million under the cap floor for this season, and only has about $20 million committed to their 2020-2021 cap, $5 million of which belongs to Marian Gaborik. They need to spend a ton (like ~$45 million) next year, to get to the cap floor. I wonder if Ottawa would seriously consider grabbing him off waivers after the bonus is paid on 7/1, or they could use it to threaten him into agree to a trade? Ottawa has to take on some bad contracts to get there, I’d imagine. After 7/1, Backes carries a significantly higher cap hit than the actual cash owed. Most of the other bad contracts floating around have real money left to pay (Lucic, Eriksson, Neal).

I don’t know, food for thought, I guess.
Colorado is another option. They are about $17 million below this year's cap floor and have less than $30 million on next year's cap. They do have a ton of RFA/UFA to take care of next offseason, but they could easily buy out Backes and only Rantanen looks to be getting a big contract. I know they want to spend big this offseason with a Panarin or a Zuccarrello, but they will still have the money to take on Backes' contract.
 

cshea

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Yeah, I listed Colorado as a possible trade destination. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble getting to the floor- Rantanten, Kerfoot and Compher will get them either there or close enough. Maybe they have interest if they whiff on some FA’s and look to weaponize their cap space.

My Ottawa hypothetical was more or less just wondering if they would value the contract enough to where they would pick him up off waivers.
 

veritas

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Yeah, Ottawa would love to be able to effectively pay under the cap. Melnyk is broke. Colorado isn't in that boat. I'm not sure there are any other teams, Arizona and Florida both seem like they're going to start spending money.
 

j44thor

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Yeah, I listed Colorado as a possible trade destination. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble getting to the floor- Rantanten, Kerfoot and Compher will get them either there or close enough. Maybe they have interest if they whiff on some FA’s and look to weaponize their cap space.

My Ottawa hypothetical was more or less just wondering if they would value the contract enough to where they would pick him up off waivers.
I doubt OTT would have interest. Won't be hard for them to get to the floor this year given they need to sign an entire line and have RFAs in Colin White and Cody Ceci. Next year Chabot is going to get paid, a lot.
 

cshea

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Friedman’s pre- UFA 31 Thoughts:


Only B’s item is they’re a possibility for Jesse Puljujarvi.
 

burstnbloom

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I think you’re looking at a lot closer to $8m AAV for McAvoy unless you offer 2 years, $7m AAV or something. And even then, given his heart condition, he’s gotta be looking for a max term, max guaranteed dollar deal - not to mention Jacobs is another obstacle assuming the deal can’t get fully insured.

Carlo I could see at closer to $5.5m given the Lindell deal as a comp. Just gut feeling but I hope I’m wrong.

Miller has had two fractured kneecaps, so I don’t think he’s moving for now, especially w Moore starting on LTIR.

I posed it as a straw-poll because I don’t know which way I’d go on it. I assume the B’s would have to give up futures or retain on Backes to get it done, which gives me a good amount of pause - as does Carlo’s stellar defensive play across like 100+ games this year
These numbers on Carlo seem off to me. Sanheim just signed for 2 years, $3.25 per. He's a pretty close comp to Carlo (better offensively, worse defensively). one year older coming off his ELC. Lindell is signing his third contract, his prior contract, adjusted for inflation, is similar to Sanheim's. Nuse signed for 2 x $3.2 last year, Morrisey 2 X $3.15, Montour 2 X $3.387, Pullock 2x$2. I think that Chyhcrun contract is the ceiling but that has a lot more term.
 

PedroSpecialK

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It's a good counterpoint, and the more I think about it, the more I think I'm letting Carlo's stellar play by the eye test sway where I think his number will end up.

Looking at their relative regular season (and playoff) ice times, Lindell is very much on the higher end of usage relative to Carlo, and the others you listed (while on bridge deals) are all higher on the usage end than Carlo - as an aside, Lindell's also partially carried by Klingberg.

On the flip side, I'd maintain that none of Sanheim, Morrissey, Montour, or Pulock are as good as solid defensively. Chychrun is likely the best overall comp - Carlo being a year older shouldn't make too big of a difference. TOI numbers from '18-'19 below for posterity

24974
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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is TOI/usage when you're a 1B behind a dman that's top 20 in defensive GAR (in only 54 games) like McAvoy really a knock/reason to make less? (McAvoy's 12.8 prorated over 82 puts him 2nd in the league)

Carlo was 46th fwiw
 
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prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
355
TIL you can go 10% over the cap in the offseason and figure it out by Opening Night, so the Bruins right now have 20-23 mil to work with. Acquire now, figure it out after.

You can acquire a top 6 forward and then not care about giving up assets with Backes if it's in place.
 

burstnbloom

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It's a good counterpoint, and the more I think about it, the more I think I'm letting Carlo's stellar play by the eye test sway where I think his number will end up.

Looking at their relative regular season (and playoff) ice times, Lindell is very much on the higher end of usage relative to Carlo, and the others you listed (while on bridge deals) are all higher on the usage end than Carlo - as an aside, Lindell's also partially carried by Klingberg.

On the flip side, I'd maintain that none of Sanheim, Morrissey, Montour, or Pulock are as good as solid defensively. Chychrun is likely the best overall comp - Carlo being a year older shouldn't make too big of a difference. TOI numbers from '18-'19 below for posterity

View attachment 24974
This is a great response. He's certainly better defensively but they are all better offensively, which pays more.

I'm just struggling to see him getting $5m annually unless they are buying a lot of term.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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I know people would lose their minds due to age but if you could get Pavelski to take a 2 year deal I would offer him as much as you possibly can and then figure it out
 

burstnbloom

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I know people would lose their minds due to age but if you could get Pavelski to take a 2 year deal I would offer him as much as you possibly can and then figure it out
He'd be a perfect fit to krejci's RW in the short term but I think he will get too much for their cap situation.
 

cshea

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Sweeney talking free agency...he says they’ll be adding on 7/1, but the RFA’s are kinda holding things up.

- They’ve extended an offer to Acciari (ugh) and have talked to Johansson’s camp

- Looking to add RW and a goalie
 

veritas

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I really wouldn't mind if they looked at the 2/3RW role the way they did the 3C last season. Give some of the younger guys a chance, even if they're in over their heads, and make a deal midseason if it doesn't work out. I think at least one of Studnicka/Steen are right shots who should be on the NHL roster, unless the organization really feels they'd be better off developmentally in Providence. Bjork/Senyshyn are also long shots to be NHL ready, but I wouldn't expect anything from either of them.

Between the four of them, it's not crazy to hope someone will grab the spot. And it's not the end of the world if they don't. They'd still have a pretty deep forward group.
 

Salem's Lot

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Why would they be looking for a goalie? Keyser and McIntyre should split time in Providence and Halak is under contract to back up Rask.
 

veritas

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Why would they be looking for a goalie? Keyser and McIntyre should split time in Providence and Halak is under contract to back up Rask.
Vladar and Keyser, I think you mean. McIntyre is a UFA who I'm not sure they're going to bring back. Vladar and Keyser are both pretty young and not ready to play in the NHL if one of Tuukka/Halak gets hurt.
 

j44thor

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Sweeney talking free agency...he says they’ll be adding on 7/1, but the RFA’s are kinda holding things up.

- They’ve extended an offer to Acciari (ugh) and have talked to Johansson’s camp

- Looking to add RW and a goalie
Assume the goalie add is for depth in Providence? Don't see any reason to mess with Rask/Halak combo.
Does Kyle Keyser have another year in juniors or will he be pushing for time in Providence? He had a really strong playoffs for his junior team, virtually eliminating Studnicka's team by himself. I think he stopped 19 of 20 shots by Jack.
 

j44thor

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With Kapanen and Johnsson both officially signed in TOR where does that put Heinen?
Heinen has a bit longer resume but not as much top end production. Does Heinen get more than 3M per year?
I don't think I'd extend beyond 3/10.5 for Heinen.
 

veritas

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With Kapanen and Johnsson both officially signed in TOR where does that put Heinen?
Heinen has a bit longer resume but not as much top end production. Does Heinen get more than 3M per year?
I don't think I'd extend beyond 3/10.5 for Heinen.
I think he's a similar value player. Maybe you can get him for less, since more of his value is defensive. But he should be in that ballpark
 

cshea

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I really wouldn't mind if they looked at the 2/3RW role the way they did the 3C last season. Give some of the younger guys a chance, even if they're in over their heads, and make a deal midseason if it doesn't work out. I think at least one of Studnicka/Steen are right shots who should be on the NHL roster, unless the organization really feels they'd be better off developmentally in Providence. Bjork/Senyshyn are also long shots to be NHL ready, but I wouldn't expect anything from either of them.

Between the four of them, it's not crazy to hope someone will grab the spot. And it's not the end of the world if they don't. They'd still have a pretty deep forward group.
This feels like the most likely outcome on the RW front. They aren’t a ton of options on the market. Seems they’d like Johansson back but money could be tight. I like Joonas Donskoi from SJS, but he’s a bit of an analytics darling and that’s created some buzz so he might end up out of their price range. I’d take a flyer on Corey Perry on a 1-year deal, but sounds like there’s a ton of interest in him. B’s haven’t been linked to anyone other than Johansson, but they seem to be good at keeping things under wraps this time a year, so who knows.
 

kenneycb

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I’m more curious as to the rationale. I don’t follow Perry at all, so saying he’ll be a disaster without any additional context is annoying.