2019-2020 Bruins

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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The biggest issue with those odds are that the Bruins at #2 will probably have to beat #4 and #1 to just get back to the ECF.
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
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The Backes contract is looking like a huge anchor. That's Sweeney. And they lost to a team with bigger, slower defensemen, so I worry he'll try to emulate that.
I think hes smart enough to realize that guys like Parayko and Pietrangelo were a big reason they lost and those guys are both very mobile. Edmundson and Bortuzzo were a total liability.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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The biggest issue with those odds are that the Bruins at #2 will probably have to beat #4 and #1 to just get back to the ECF.
Leafs are no playoff lock. Made the playoffs by 1 point, losing key contributors and one or two of Fla, Mtl, NYR, NJD are likely to playoff.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
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Leafs are no playoff lock. Made the playoffs by 1 point, losing key contributors and one or two of Fla, Mtl, NYR, NJD are likely to playoff.
Actually four points. And just like how I expect the Bruins young players to get better, the Leafs young players will also get better. Barring season ending injuries to guys like Matthews, I would pencil them into the playoffs.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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Actually four points. And just like how I expect the Bruins young players to get better, the Leafs young players will also get better. Barring season ending injuries to guys like Matthews, I would pencil them into the playoffs.
Technically 4 in the Atlantic but 1 overall. One of Kapanen or Johnsson is gone for cap reasons and Gardiner/Hainsey are gone. They are not a regression candidate (I expect them to do about 100 again) but the progression candidates are many and two are Atl foes. This applies to the Bruins too. Montreal was one of the best teams in the league and the youngest team but had *no powerplay* at all and is loaded with prospects. Florida should reload.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Technically 4 in the Atlantic but 1 overall. One of Kapanen or Johnsson is gone for cap reasons and Gardiner/Hainsey are gone. They are not a regression candidate (I expect them to do about 100 again) but the progression candidates are many and two are Atl foes. This applies to the Bruins too. Montreal was one of the best teams in the league and the youngest team but had *no powerplay* at all and is loaded with prospects. Florida should reload.
No actually 4. If Toronto finished with 3 less points (97), they still would have made the playoffs over the 9th place team (Montreal with 96). It doesn’t matter that Montreal is in the same division in this case.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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No actually 4. If Toronto finished with 3 less points (97), they still would have made the playoffs over the 9th place team (Montreal with 96). It doesn’t matter that Montreal is in the same division in this case.
It does for projections. Toronto would be the odd man out with a Montreal progression.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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You’re also discounting other regression candidates that are in way worse positions than Toronto, like Columbus, the Islanders, Carolina, and Pittsburgh [duck]. Unless they totally botch the Marner negotiations the way they did with Nylander, Toronto’s fine.

Also, unless Georgiev wins the Calder AND Vezina next year, I don’t buy the Rangers as a rising star yet.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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You’re also discounting other regression candidates that are in way worse positions than Toronto, like Columbus, the Islanders, Carolina, and Pittsburgh [duck]. Unless they totally botch the Marner negotiations the way they did with Nylander, Toronto’s fine.

Also, unless Georgiev wins the Calder AND Vezina next year, I don’t buy the Rangers as a rising star yet.
Yes I agree. Pitt and NYI are good bets to miss if you had to. Carolina is really good.
 

joe dokes

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What is it about Heinen that keeps him off the "can be moved to save $$ for others" list? Is he really a lot less ordinary than he appears to me?
 

MiracleOfO2704

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Carolina is really good.
If they continue to get solid goaltending, yes. But that’s not guaranteed. Mrazek and McElhinney are both UFAs, and even if one comes back to battle with Scott Darling, no one in that carousel would give me confidence. They’re a regression team just because they got better goaltending than at any point in the past decade, and I still don’t trust it.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
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What is it about Heinen that keeps him off the "can be moved to save $$ for others" list? Is he really a lot less ordinary than he appears to me?
He’s still relatively cheap and has upside. He’ll probably command $2.5 per year which is fine for a good 3rd line wing that could score 20 goals if things broke right for him, and is defensively responsible. Keep him while he’s in that dollar range, the. when he gets to UFA replace him with the next young cheap bottom 6 guy. Good drafting and development organizations should have no problem replacing a Danton Heinen every 5 years.
 

cshea

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What is it about Heinen that keeps him off the "can be moved to save $$ for others" list? Is he really a lot less ordinary than he appears to me?
He is a guy you can play almost anywhere. He can play left and right wing, top 6 and bottom six. He’s good defensively. He’s not untouchable but I also wouldn’t call him ordinary.
 

cshea

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Fluto’s take:


He pins a Krug extension at between Yandle’s $6.35 AAV and John Carlson’s $8 million AAV. The Bruins basically have 7-10 days to decide on trade, extend or ride it out. Teams have their assets and cap space lined up and they dwindle as we get past the draft next week and then free agency on 7/1, so if they are trading him, got to do it now. I disagree a bit here, if they go the futures route they may have more time, but if it drags on that also limits their ability to use the futures acquired in a Krug deal to improve the 2019-2020 team.

RW needs to be addressed.

McAvoy will get big deal, Carlo maybe in the $4 million range. Heinen, bridge deal perhaps.
 

mwonow

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I'm surprised that no one has been talking up Wayne Simmonds. The Bs just got pushed around in the SCF. Shouldn't "find someone who can skate a top 6/top 9 shift who also creates space for himself and his linemates" be high on the priority list?
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
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Gallows Hill
I'm surprised that no one has been talking up Wayne Simmonds. The Bs just got pushed around in the SCF. Shouldn't "find someone who can skate a top 6/top 9 shift who also creates space for himself and his linemates" be high on the priority list?
Adding future bad contracts isn’t going to help the situation.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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Changing the roster because one random team (barely) won with a poor formula because the refs decided to call the games like it's another era is not smart. Don't be results oriented off a sample of one. Speed and skill wins in today's NHL, stick to the plan.
 

lexrageorge

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Changing the roster because one random team (barely) won with a poor formula because the refs decided to call the games like it's another era is not smart. Don't be results oriented off a sample of one. Speed and skill wins in today's NHL, stick to the plan.
And the Blues forwards, especially the first 2 lines, were more speed and skill oriented than perhaps expected.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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Early Thoughts:

Trades
Bruins
Backes 1.5 mil retained
Zboril attached
Team X
4th round pick

Bruins
Miller
Team Y
4th round pick? 5th?

Bruins
Krug
Team Z (feel like Florida works here)
Two 2nd round picks (Boychuk-ish deal)

RFA
McAvoy 7/50.75
Carlo 4/18
Heinen 3/7.5

UFA
Johansson - have to be smart, sadly gone
Acciari - gone, Wagner/Kuhlman slot in at RW4

Promotions
Vaakanainen LHD2
Studnicka RW3, groom him as a future C ala Seguin. DeBrusk and Heinen both made the jump, give Studnicka the chance. He almost made the team last year.
Heinen-Coyle-Studnicka

Need
RW2. Josh Anderson could be available depending on what CBJ does
Jordan Eberle is an UFA
Taylor Hall is likely available and can play the right side as a left shot.

These moves/signings leave you with 11 mil for a RW2 and deadline.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
6,178
Gallows Hill
Early Thoughts:

Trades
Bruins
Backes 1.5 mil retained
Zboril attached
Team X
4th round pick

Bruins
Miller
Team Y
4th round pick? 5th?

Bruins
Krug
Team Z (feel like Florida works here)
Two 2nd round picks (Boychuk-ish deal)

RFA
McAvoy 7/50.75
Carlo 4/18
Heinen 3/7.5

UFA
Johansson - have to be smart, sadly gone
Acciari - gone, Wagner/Kuhlman slot in at RW4

Promotions
Vaakanainen LHD2
Studnicka RW3, groom him as a future C ala Seguin. DeBrusk and Heinen both made the jump, give Studnicka the chance. He almost made the team last year.
Heinen-Coyle-Studnicka

Need
RW2. Josh Anderson could be available depending on what CBJ does
Jordan Eberle is an UFA
Taylor Hall is likely available and can play the right side as a left shot.

These moves/signings leave you with 11 mil for a RW2 and deadline.
Where to begin.

If all Krug can net you is 2 2nd round picks, you let him play his contract out and have him for next years playoffs. If I did trade him it would be for a winger that is a hell of a lot better than Josh Anderson.

Next, Zboril was drafted in the first round and is not even 22. They are not adding him as a lottery ticket piece of salary dump trade.

I would call New Jersey about Krug for Taylor Hall. It’s almost certainly a no from their end but make a phone call you never know.
 

prizminferno

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Jul 12, 2005
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I don't want to trade Krug, I don't think anyone does. It's just being smart and two seconds is a pretty good haul for a 5 mil player on the last year of his deal. The PP with McAvoy was actually better, believe it or not. You need to acquire players separately, hockey trades don't happen very often.

You have to attach someone to Backes to get them to take him. Zboril I think they like but there's a logjam at LHD -- he's gotta be behind Vaak and Lauzon at this point.
 

RGREELEY33

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I hate saying this out loud, but is it crazy to think the Belichickian move would be to package the Backes or Krejci contract with Bergeron for a 2nd line scorer and 1st round pick type haul, and sign a Panarin ?

12.8m out with Backes/Bergy, and Panarin at what $10m?

(I just threw up in my mouth typing this)
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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I hate saying this out loud, but is it crazy to think the Belichickian move would be to package the Backes or Krejci contract with Bergeron for a 2nd line scorer and 1st round pick type haul, and sign a Panarin ?

12.8m out with Backes/Bergy, and Panarin at what $10m?

(I just threw up in my mouth typing this)
Belichick doesn’t operate in a world of guaranteed contracts and no move clauses. It’s comparing apples to watermelons.

-In his league he could just cut Backes.

-Bergeron has a full no move clause, and can’t renegotiate his deal even if he wanted to leave. Whenever Belichick does of those deals there is usually a renegotiation of the contract.

-Teams would have a hard time absorbing $13 million in salary, and even if they could, they’re not doing it for a 34 year old Patrice Bergeron. Because they’d be buying Backes out.

-Also, who knows if Panarin would even want to sign here?
 

LogansDad

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I hate saying this out loud, but is it crazy to think the Belichickian move would be to package the Backes or Krejci contract with Bergeron for a 2nd line scorer and 1st round pick type haul, and sign a Panarin ?

12.8m out with Backes/Bergy, and Panarin at what $10m?

(I just threw up in my mouth typing this)
This would probably save me a lot of money because I might never bother watching sports again if it happened.

To add substance, I really think this team can contend again next year with the right MoJo replacement (as much as I would love him coming back, I see no way of making it happen). Nyquist and Eberle are the best looking UFA out there, but I'm not sure the Bruins can make either of them fit, without trading Krug for nothing but picks.

I know there isn't a ton of cap space available, but they really don't have all that much to replace, either, so I think they are still in good shape for next year. Tampa, for instance is losing a lot more players, and has less cap space to work with, at least if I'm reading CapFriendly right. I almost lean toward making no big moves and hoping that one of Bjork/Senyshyn are able to make the leap, and then see what you need at the deadline. But I also know that is likely a really dumb opinion, especially with the dwindling Bergy/Marchand/Krejci/Rask window.

Is Zuccarello interesting to anyone? He's older, but might be cheaper than the bigger names on the UFA list....
 

biff_hardbody

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Apr 27, 2016
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This is a really entertaining discussion. I just want to add that they dont need to solve the top 6 winger problem right now, they can do it midseason.

As for Krug, I'm glad it is not my decision. It all depends on the return, of course.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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I hate saying this out loud, but is it crazy to think the Belichickian move would be to package the Backes or Krejci contract with Bergeron for a 2nd line scorer and 1st round pick type haul, and sign a Panarin ?

12.8m out with Backes/Bergy, and Panarin at what $10m?

(I just threw up in my mouth typing this)
Yes, it's crazy.
 

jk333

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If you’re not getting a 1C back, a Bergeron for Panarin swap doesn’t even make sense, in my opinion. Teams don’t win Stanley Cups without great two way centers.

Top center on the last ten+ Cup champions:
Backstrom
Crosby (3x)
Toews (3x)
Kopitar (2x)
Bergeron
Datsyuk
Getzlaf

Not really any 2020 Krejci players on there. Bruins need Bergeron to maintain his form to remain contender.
 
Last edited:

lexrageorge

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Bergeron is going nowhere, that much is sure.

I do think they need to take feelers on Krejci, especially as he can be traded to 15 teams as of July 1st. The second line was inconsistent throughout the year. They shored it up somewhat with Johansen, but he's likely gone.
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
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If you’re not getting a 1C back, a Bergeron for Panarin swap doesn’t even make sense, in my opinion. Teams don’t win Stanley Cups without great two way centers.

Top center on the last ten+ Cup champions:
Backstrom
Crosby (3x)
Toews (3x)
Kopitar (2x)
Bergeron
Datsyuk
Getzlaf

Not really any 2020 Krejci players on there. Bruins need Bergeron to maintain his form to remain contender.
I'd put O'Reilly up there as well.
 

PedroSpecialK

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This is a really entertaining discussion. I just want to add that they dont need to solve the top 6 winger problem right now, they can do it midseason.

As for Krug, I'm glad it is not my decision. It all depends on the return, of course.
Ultimately, the best course of action on Krug may well be to just keep him and treat him as their own rental. I was fully on board with trading him before this past season, but his importance to the PP in the playoffs especially can't be understated. Whatever he brings back with one year left will in all likelihood not provide equal / greater value to just keeping him and using his cap space to pay for DeBrusk's RFA raise in the summer of 2020.

I took a look at the game logs for this past season with and without Krug and was surprised to see the PP click at nearly the same rate without him in the lineup. CF% can be ignored, that's just there for shits and giggles.

24849
 

cshea

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Bergeron is going nowhere, that much is sure.

I do think they need to take feelers on Krejci, especially as he can be traded to 15 teams as of July 1st. The second line was inconsistent throughout the year. They shored it up somewhat with Johansen, but he's likely gone.
It seems like every offseason we have a trade Krejci campaign. I don’t really get it. It made some sense to consider trading him last offseason in the million-to-one chance they landed Tavares, but he has more value to the Bruins than what he’d bring in a trade. He’s coming off an excellent year. The team doesn’t have the center depth to withstand trading him, and your not getting an better option back in a trade. Bergeron is about to turn 34 and has played 64 and 65 games the past 2 years and ended this postseason with some kind of injury. What are we doing at C if Krejci’s gone and Bergy goes down?

Krejci played 81 games and had his best season since 2008/2008 with 73 points. Much of that was done without playing on the top PP and having cycle of anchors on his right wing. Krejci has 57 even strength points, second on the team behind Marchand’s 59. The second line inconsistencies aren’t on Krejci, it’s the personnel they tried to fit in there. I mean they were relatively healthy and played game 6 and 7 of the Stanley Cup Final with unstaffed free agent signing Karson Kuhlman as 2nd line RW. I mean, I really like Kuhlman’s game but he’s never been a top 6 guy at any level and it just sort of illustrates how deep into the barrel they were scraping to find someone that could play there.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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May 20, 2003
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I had a horrifying yet plausible thought on my commute in this morning:

The Bruins might expose Rask to the expansion draft for Seattle. Much like the Pens did Fleury for VGK.

It's impossible to overstate how much shit Rask is getting from both traditional and social media right now for the mortal sin of being human in Game 7. There's so much crap being thrown at him that I think it's entirely possible that the braintrust might talk themselves into thinking he can't win the big one, much like the previous brain trust talked themselves into dumping Seguin for a pile of magic beans because he was young and stupid.

They may take a look at his age and contract when Seattle's up and figure "Well we didn't win with him, we sure can not win without him, and he's $7 million."

I don't think this is a crazy scenario, even though we don't have any type of starter-in-waiting.
 

cshea

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I had a horrifying yet plausible thought on my commute in this morning:

The Bruins might expose Rask to the expansion draft for Seattle. Much like the Pens did Fleury for VGK.

It's impossible to overstate how much shit Rask is getting from both traditional and social media right now for the mortal sin of being human in Game 7. There's so much crap being thrown at him that I think it's entirely possible that the braintrust might talk themselves into thinking he can't win the big one, much like the previous brain trust talked themselves into dumping Seguin for a pile of magic beans because he was young and stupid.

They may take a look at his age and contract when Seattle's up and figure "Well we didn't win with him, we sure can not win without him, and he's $7 million."

I don't think this is a crazy scenario, even though we don't have any type of starter-in-waiting.
He’s a UFA then anyways. The draft is June 2021.
 

lexrageorge

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There are a number of things that can and will happen between now and summer of 2021. Rask will be 34 by then, and so it would behoove them to start thinking about nurturing someone to take over by then anyway. Also, Benning is no longer around to advocate for trading him, neither is Chiarelli around to screw up the trade. And Sweeney and Neely seem to have a good working relationship, which was a behind the scenes problem in 2013.
 

jk333

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Whatever he brings back with one year left will in all likelihood not provide equal / greater value to just keeping him and using his cap space to pay for DeBrusk's RFA raise in the summer of 2020.
View attachment 24849
I also don’t get the trade Krejci talk. He’s overpaid but still their 4th best forward clearly ahead of Debrusk.


It will be interesting to see what they do with Krug and the defensemen because they have at least one and maybe two too many depending on what you expect out of Urho and Chara in 2020. I’ve heard Urho described as completely ready, so is he better than Clifton and Zboril already? I had thought Zboril was big with a vicious mean streak but that doesn’t look to be the case from looking up his profile and 18-19 season.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Ultimately, the best course of action on Krug may well be to just keep him and treat him as their own rental.
I think this is correct. I also think that if the season doesn't go well, Krug is the sort of player who could be very easily moved, for real value, at the deadline.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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There is no reason for anyone to want to move on from Rask or Krejci. They were both very good this year and there is no one on an ELC coming up that could match their production. If Keyser tears up the AHL next season, maybe he can replace Halak as the backup in 20-21, but he’s a long way from being able to replicate Rask’s production. Finding top 2 center replacements for Krejci and eventually Bergeron is an even larger problem. You either have to absolutely win a trade (Dallas with Seguin, St. Louis with O’Reilly), pick in the top 5, or get really lucky with a late first or 2nd round pick.