Price is worth more than 3/$36. That's hardly more than Kyle Gibson, who's never been more than a 3/4 innings eater at best. Bumgarner's deal was light than expected given the high ends deals dished out this offseason. If Ryu comes in at a similar AAV, then yes, I think dealing Price will be difficult. But what if Boras can get Ryu - who has been excellent when healthy but is not himself a model of health or post-season success - say, 3 years at $20-25m per? That makes Price, subsidized to that range, a fallback a more reasonable proposition.
Ryu since '16: 0 fWAR, 0.6, 1.9, 4.8
Price since '16: 4.4, 1.5, 2.4, 2.3
Ryu's performance when healthy is as good as anyone's, but it's hard not to notice that Price has thrown almost 180 more IP over that span. I'd be more bullish on Price healthwise, I think.
I also don't think people on this board have properly priced in just how weird Bumgarner's post-dirtbike years have been. The 2018/19 version gives up a lot of fly balls, a lot of pulled contact, and a lot of hard contact. He's benefited from pitching in a park with both a deep OF and a marine layer that turns most of those fly balls into outs, at least those hit after 4 pm or so. This has resulted in some pretty wild splits.
2018 home ERA: 1.63
2018 away ERA: 4.97
2019 home ERA: 2.93
2019 away ERA: 5.29
I think a few teams looked at that and wondered whether he was just a product of Mays Field at Oracle Park. I'm not sure he's really a great comp here.
