2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Olney citing a “longtime American League evaluator” to opine/report that the Yankees are betting on Andujar and his work ethic to improve his defense.

Obviously a few ways to read this. Jon + others, how do you read it?
To me the LeMahieu signing means no more Andujar in the field, either Machado or one of Gleyber/LeMahieu play 3B. I read that Olney piece as more propaganda in the Machado sweepstakes, I do think it's possible that he could eventually develop and be adequate in the field, but I will be very surprised if he is given the chance to do so in NY once everything shakes out.

Also according to BR, Boggs had a positive dWAR for each of the first eight years of his career, so I don't think that's a very good comparison. Maybe Olney should ask a 'longtime National League evaluator" about Ryan Braun's 3B career? :)
 

jon abbey

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But clearly something else is coming here, Gleyber's best off at 2B, LeMahieu's best off at 2B, both were on all the top 10 2B in MLB lists on MLBN last night. In both those cases we have very little evidence about how they would handle 3B defensively, but either or both could be very good there.

Part of me wonders if they sign Machado, maybe they move Gleyber for someone like Blake Snell? Dunno, there's a reason no one rumored LeMahieu to NY before it actually happened as it's an odd fit on the surface.
 

chawson

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Yeah, I agree something else is coming. Selling LeMahieu as a utilityman who can split time at 1B doesn’t make sense.

Snell’s a great prize, but this is the closest thing to a window the Rays have had since 2011-13, and Joey Wendle has just as many pre-arb years left as Gleyber. I could see something like Berrios or Taillon coming back though (similar to what I want the Sox to do with Benintendi).
 

jon abbey

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I give you an A for effort on the Snell trade ideas, Abbey, but it’s not happening.
Yeah, honestly I wouldn't trade Gleyber in the division either if at all possible, but it's hard to think of any genuine SP trade targets if they actually are willing to move Gleyber. Gleyber for three years of fairly pricy Kluber seems like a bit too much, but maybe. Berrios or Taillon is interesting.
 

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Everytime we think we know what Cashman is going to do next, we're wrong. I would imagine Torres can fetch any available ace but if Cashman had that lined up, would he have signed DJ first? Maybe he had a plan to sign either DJ or Lowrie and the Mets forced his hand to make a movie before he was out of good options.

I don't think Machado is realistic at this point and makes way less sense than he did a month ago.
 

jon abbey

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LeMahieu has big lefty/righty splits also, both last year and career. He is very good against lefties but bad against righties which seems to be the opposite of what NY needs, add another reason this move was so unexpected and confusing and that there must be something connected coming.
 

jon abbey

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Everytime we think we know what Cashman is going to do next, we're wrong.
For the record, I had the Tulo move pegged here a couple of days before it happened, Britton was obvious once Robertson was off the board, I still think Ottavino is coming too. Everyone thought Corbin but people didn't think he'd get to 6/140, and once that happened, we all knew Happ was the backup choice there. I don't think people expected him to bring back CC and Gardner so quickly, but certainly not surprising once he did.

This one was totally out of the blue, though, and I would not be surprised to see more like that, especially trades. I think they could go into the season with this team now, for the first time this winter, but Gray still needs to go and Cashman will hopefully continue to build depth. You like to give kids chances when deserved but there is so much talent in the FA market now and the more guys you push back to AAA to start the season, the more depth you have to work with over the long season.
 

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On the Hot Stove show this morning on the MLB network, Harold Reynolds suggested that the DJLM signing might be a precursor to a Sanchez and Torres for Trout deal.o_O Ken "The Voice of Reason" Rosenthal quickly shot that down.
 

jon abbey

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Interesting piece on Fangraphs about how similar LeMahieu's offensive output the last three seasons was to Jeter's in his 28-30 year seasons, obviously DJL is a much better defender (although maybe Jeter would have been a lot better at 2B?).

Jeter (age 28-30 seasons): .302 AVG .371 OBP .447 SLG 8.1 BB% 15.1 K% 52.1 GB% 32.8% OPPO

LeMahieu (age 28-30 seasons): .312 AVG .372 OBP .443 SLG 8.5 BB% 13.3 K% 52.1GB% 35.4% OPPO

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dj-lemahieu-is-going-to-look-familiar/
 

jon abbey

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Tim Locastro DFAd for LeMahieu's spot, a little surprising because of his versatility and options remaining.
 

chawson

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Interesting piece on Fangraphs about how similar LeMahieu's offensive output the last three seasons was to Jeter's in his 28-30 year seasons, obviously DJL is a much better defender (although maybe Jeter would have been a lot better at 2B?).

Jeter (age 28-30 seasons): .302 AVG .371 OBP .447 SLG 8.1 BB% 15.1 K% 52.1 GB% 32.8% OPPO

LeMahieu (age 28-30 seasons): .312 AVG .372 OBP .443 SLG 8.5 BB% 13.3 K% 52.1GB% 35.4% OPPO

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dj-lemahieu-is-going-to-look-familiar/
I understand the optimism here and recognize that it’s Jeff Sullivan’s point, not yours, but wouldn’t it be possible to make similar comparisons with Garret Atkins, Ryan Spilborghs, Clint Barmes, or a bunch of other long-term Rockies?

LeMahieu’s road numbers over that time: .274 AVG, .329 OBP, .409 SLG 7.1 BB% 15.3 K% 52.2 GB% 34.3% OPPO

Not trying to argue with you of course. It’s a puzzling signing to me — Cashman’s first of the offseason. It may turn out well, but those splits are really pronounced, and I’m having a hard time finding a Rockies hitter that’s been worth it after leaving Coors (outside of Holliday).
 

keninten

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Interesting piece on Fangraphs about how similar LeMahieu's offensive output the last three seasons was to Jeter's in his 28-30 year seasons, obviously DJL is a much better defender (although maybe Jeter would have been a lot better at 2B?).

Jeter (age 28-30 seasons): .302 AVG .371 OBP .447 SLG 8.1 BB% 15.1 K% 52.1 GB% 32.8% OPPO

LeMahieu (age 28-30 seasons): .312 AVG .372 OBP .443 SLG 8.5 BB% 13.3 K% 52.1GB% 35.4% OPPO

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dj-lemahieu-is-going-to-look-familiar/
What about his intangibles?
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I can explain almost any Yankee move immediately, but this one is puzzling. Machado making a decision, be it elsewhere or NY, will I think allow Cashman to finish his offseason. In the meantime, more Sonny Gray trade rumors today...

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman
Things said to “ramp up” in Sonny Gray trade talks since CC Sabathia was given clearance to pitch. At least 6 teams said to be involved. Reds are one. Padres, Brewers, A’s, Padres, Mariners, Braves among others linked to Sonny.
 

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I don't think the White Sox will get Machado at seven years, but if they do, I think I'm going to start doubting Cashman some. Because if the Yankees were never willing to go 7 or 8, I don't think they were really interested at all. Extra pissed if the damage control PR whispers to the media mention concerns about Machado's 'intangibles'* or some other semi-racist bullshit.

FTR, I don't think this will happen. At this point I sort of expect that Cashman didn't like the initial numbers from Machado's agent and decided to sit back and see where the market would go. Maybe part of that calculation (maybe not accurate) being that if Machado wants to be a Yankee, Cashman might get a chance to a chance to match it.

Fun times.





* Yeah, I put that in there for our Sox friends here to get a chuckle.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Who knows what will happen but this feels like vintage Cashman. Sit back and dont allow NYY to be used driving up the price. Put out some tidbits that they are looking to move on, or talks are dead. Wait for the market to concretize, swoop in and beat the best offer knowing NY is where MM wants to be in the end anyway.

If I were a NYY fan I would be more worried if the competition were LAD or CHC or WAS or something. Can’t see him going w CWS and that overall situation unless NYY really is out.
 

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I don't think the White Sox will get Machado at seven years, but if they do, I think I'm going to start doubting Cashman some. Because if the Yankees were never willing to go 7 or 8, I don't think they were really interested at all. Extra pissed if the damage control PR whispers to the media mention concerns about Machado's 'intangibles'* or some other semi-racist bullshit.

FTR, I don't think this will happen. At this point I sort of expect that Cashman didn't like the initial numbers from Machado's agent and decided to sit back and see where the market would go. Maybe part of that calculation (maybe not accurate) being that if Machado wants to be a Yankee, Cashman might get a chance to a chance to match it.

Fun times.





* Yeah, I put that in there for our Sox friends here to get a chuckle.
I think if he can be had for 7 years and we don't get there, fans would be shocked. I'm in agreement that we should stay away on a very expensive deal but 7/210 seems like a huge bargain.
 

jon abbey

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NY is around $210M right now with Severino (going to arb) and without Gray, so getting both Machado and Ottavino would put them over the top line of $246M which maybe Cashman is trying to stay below at least until midseason. I would do it anyway, but it does seem like the COL combo of LeMahieu/Ottavino is the backup plan for no Machado, and if Machado does come, LeMahieu bumps Tyler Wade as backup infielder and maybe no Ottavino. They don't need him, but I hope they get him anyway, either way. If you have one guy on the DL and 1-2 more who have pitched two days in a row, maybe one who can't find the plate that week, back end depth can disappear real quick.

Which is a long way to say that maybe if Machado goes elsewhere, Cashman will give Ottavino the third year he wants, bring the hometown boy back (bring that beat back!).
 

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I don't think the White Sox will get Machado at seven years, but if they do, I think I'm going to start doubting Cashman some. Because if the Yankees were never willing to go 7 or 8, I don't think they were really interested at all. Extra pissed if the damage control PR whispers to the media mention concerns about Machado's 'intangibles'* or some other semi-racist bullshit.

FTR, I don't think this will happen. At this point I sort of expect that Cashman didn't like the initial numbers from Machado's agent and decided to sit back and see where the market would go. Maybe part of that calculation (maybe not accurate) being that if Machado wants to be a Yankee, Cashman might get a chance to a chance to match it.

Fun times.





* Yeah, I put that in there for our Sox friends here to get a chuckle.
If any team shied away from Machado because of his silly and probably honest comments about hustle or his penchant for “dirty” play, whether or not you agree that his comments are relevant or such penchant exists, why is that semi-racist?

I think Machado is a dick and while he’s really good at baseball, I would be amused at my biggest villain being on my most hated team. My reasons have nothing to do with race.

PS: I get that post non-signing spin is not the same thing as shying away from signing. Still, I don’t think being influenced by these “intangibles” is perforce racist, semi or otherwise.
 

jon abbey

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If any team shied away from Machado because of his silly and probably honest comments about hustle or his penchant for “dirty” play, whether or not you agree that his comments are relevant or such penchant exists, why is that semi-racist?

I think Machado is a dick and while he’s really good at baseball, I would be amused at my biggest villain being on my most hated team. My reasons have nothing to do with race.
The dirty rep is totally legit and hard to understand, I have never seen someone spike the first baseman on routine plays like that before. And hatred of sports figures doesn't need to be rational but it completely is in this case. But the hustle stuff is at least somewhat racist, same as with Sanchez.

Bryce Harper couldn't have tried less defensively last season, he was the worst defensive OF in baseball and he literally dove once and slid for four balls all season (per MLBN, 33 combined of those two the previous two seasons for him). His team and their league-leading payroll missed the playoffs, his defense couldn't have helped that. Somehow this is largely overlooked.

Meanwhile Machado has missed a TOTAL of 11 games in the past 4 seasons combined, averaging over 159 games per season. Which one of those guys would you label with hustle issues if you had to choose one?

You and I think every player should run their hardest to first every single time, but some players, Latino especially, seem to think there is an element of fake hustle involved there depending on the action. Charlie Hustle wasn't originally a compliment for Pete Rose, but I'm sure you know that.
 

TheoShmeo

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The dirty rep is totally legit and hard to understand, I have never seen someone spike the first baseman on routine plays like that before. And hatred of sports figures doesn't need to be rational but it completely is in this case. But the hustle stuff is at least somewhat racist, same as with Sanchez.

Bryce Harper couldn't have tried less defensively last season, he was the worst defensive OF in baseball and he literally dove once and slid for four balls all season (per MLBN, 33 combined of those two the previous two seasons for him). His team and their league-leading payroll missed the playoffs, his defense couldn't have helped that. Somehow this is largely overlooked.

Meanwhile Machado has missed a TOTAL of 11 games in the past 4 seasons combined, averaging over 159 games per season. Which one of those guys would you label with hustle issues if you had to choose one?

You and I think every player should run their hardest to first every single time, but some players, Latino especially, seem to think there is an element of fake hustle involved there depending on the action. Charlie Hustle wasn't originally a compliment for Pete Rose, but I'm sure you know that.
Jon, Machado himself said he wasn’t Johnny Hustle. He doesn’t always run hard down the line.

If he hadn’t made his comments, I doubt I would be thinking about that he doesn’t always bust like a Jeter or a Pedrioa. But he did.

When I think of him, one of the bullet points is the hustle thing. I don’t have a racist bone in my body and only want my team to win, regardless of how any of the players look. I can’t blame a GM for thinking back to Machado’s admission.

His agent is likely trying to spin it. He didn’t really mean it that way. But if Harper had said that, I think Harper’s lack of hustle would stand out more for me and others.

And it kind of fits, in a non-linear way, with the dirty factor. Not that they are twin concepts but both make him dislikable.

And then there’s the added factor of his lukewarm performance in the WS.

And that he wants to play SS and is much more suited to 3B.

At the money he is demanding, all of it leads to a sandwich I would tend to avoid as a baseball executive. And I know he’s an excellent player. But still, if I referred later to the hustle comments or attribute, it would be truthful and not racist in any way.

And by the way, I wouldn’t be rushing to sign Harper either. Given all the big money deals that have not panned out and the overall picture with both of them, I’m not surprised that these guys have not yet signed.
 

jon abbey

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Jon, Machado himself said he wasn’t Johnny Hustle. He doesn’t always run hard down the line.
Right, this is my point. The culture he grew up in is different from the one you and I did, I will repeat my final sentences which addressed this:

"You and I think every player should run their hardest to first every single time, but some players, Latino especially, seem to think there is an element of fake hustle involved there depending on the action. Charlie Hustle wasn't originally a compliment for Pete Rose, but I'm sure you know that."

I'm not calling you racist, I am saying I think there is an undercurrent of racism in the way that Latino superstars are so quickly labelled 'lazy' by the US baseball culture in general. I don't even think it's debatable, it just is.

Also I don't think he cares about playing SS or 3B, he hasn't said anything about that this offseason. That was just a smart way for him to demonstrate versatility going into FA.
 

TheoShmeo

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Right, this is my point. The culture he grew up in is different from the one you and I did, I will repeat my final sentences which addressed this:

"You and I think every player should run their hardest to first every single time, but some players, Latino especially, seem to think there is an element of fake hustle involved there depending on the action. Charlie Hustle wasn't originally a compliment for Pete Rose, but I'm sure you know that."

I'm not calling you racist, I am saying I think there is an undercurrent of racism in the way that Latino superstars are so quickly labelled 'lazy' by the US baseball culture in general. I don't even think it's debatable, it just is.

Also I don't think he cares about playing SS or 3B, he hasn't said anything about that this offseason. That was just a smart way for him to demonstrate versatility going into FA.
Perhaps I’m naive but I think that my view of him, and the view many others, has nothing to do with his skin color. I could care less about busting down the line for show or when it seems not to matter but also recall him turning doubles into singles and singles into outs. This happened in the playoffs this year, I believe. At least, the doubles/singles thing did.

I get that how and where he grew up may play a role in how he functions, but the Sox have had many Hispanic players over the years and I haven’t noticed hustle being a meaningful issue with many, if any, of them. Maybe Hanley. Ortiz and Manny sometimes didn’t motor but did either get widely labeled as lazy? I don’t think so. Manny was called a flake and worse, but it was often well deserved and he was still loved in Boston by most fans (for good reason) until the end.
 

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Hell, if I were a Red Sox fan, I’d dislike Manny for the slide into Pedroia that finished off Pedey’s career.
 

jon abbey

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I get that how and where he grew up may play a role in how he functions, but the Sox have had many Hispanic players over the years and I haven’t noticed hustle being a meaningful issue with many, if any, of them. Maybe Hanley. Ortiz and Manny sometimes didn’t motor but did either get widely labeled as lazy? I don’t think so. Manny was called a flake and worse, but it was often well deserved and he was still loved in Boston by most fans (for good reason) until the end.
Right, but when a star is labelled as lazy, it seems to always be a Latino one, like when white players in the NBA are called 'cerebral' or whatever.

I'm not trying to make a huge deal about this or change the world really, I do think Machado is a problematic player and definitely a dirty one at times, but I also think that the magnifying glasses that he and Harper are being held under this winter are very different, and the only answer I can come up with as to why that is is race. Again, Machado has played more games than any other player in baseball the last four seasons, playing great defense most of that time, while Harper seems to have spent last season posting on Instagram while in the OF and watching balls go by him. How much have you read about Harper's horrendous D last year? There's been some, but the two players simply haven't been treated the same in general public perception, and to me the answer why is obvious.
 

jon abbey

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Hell, if I were a Red Sox fan, I’d dislike Manny for the slide into Pedroia that finished off Pedey’s career.
He's trying to come back, but yeah, the dirty stuff is unquestionable and very puzzling. The 'hustle' component is what I am questioning.
 

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Right, but when a star is labelled as lazy, it seems to always be a Latino one, like when white players in the NBA are called 'cerebral' or whatever.

I'm not trying to make a huge deal about this or change the world really, I do think Machado is a problematic player and definitely a dirty one at times, but I also think that the magnifying glasses that he and Harper are being held under this winter is very different. Again, Machado has played more games than any other player in baseball the last four seasons, playing great defense most of that time, while Harper seems to have spent last season posting on Instagram while in the OF and watching balls go by him. How much have you read about Harper's horrendous D last year? There's been some, but the two players simply haven't been treated the same in general public perception, and to me the answer why is obvious.
So I don’t do fantasy and follow the Sox and Yankees much more than I follow baseball as a whole. As a result, my knowledge of Harper is much less full than it is of Machado.

I just think that Machado comes off as the much bigger douche, and that being dirty is the biggest part of that. But let’s face it, the market is speaking about both of them.

I am hardly an expert in racism. My point in our discussion is that Machado has given people like me a lot of fodder and I think it’s color blind.

As much as he could do some damage for the Yankees (pun sort of intended), I really hope he signs there. It would be fun to get to hate him even more.
 

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Right, but when a star is labelled as lazy, it seems to always be a Latino one, like when white players in the NBA are called 'cerebral' or whatever.

I'm not trying to make a huge deal about this or change the world really, I do think Machado is a problematic player and definitely a dirty one at times, but I also think that the magnifying glasses that he and Harper are being held under this winter are very different, and the only answer I can come up with as to why that is is race. Again, Machado has played more games than any other player in baseball the last four seasons, playing great defense most of that time, while Harper seems to have spent last season posting on Instagram while in the OF and watching balls go by him. How much have you read about Harper's horrendous D last year? There's been some, but the two players simply haven't been treated the same in general public perception, and to me the answer why is obvious.
Harper got called lazy by dimwit Matt Williams when he didn't engage in false hustle sprints to first when the second baseman could throw him out by 30 feet.
 

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Mariano Rivera going into the HoF.

John Wetteland likely fitted for a different set of pinstripes
 

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Harper got called lazy by dimwit Matt Williams when he didn't engage in false hustle sprints to first when the second baseman could throw him out by 30 feet.
And then got hurt when he busted down the line on a routine grounder. I'd rather guys take it easy rather than risk a needless hamstring injury especially if there is no leverage in the outcome.
 

jon abbey

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"In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”"
 

jon abbey

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Rosenthal on LeMahieu in The Athletic:

“The Yankees viewed LeMahieu as the second-best free-agent infielder behind Manny Machado, ranking him ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie and the rest. LeMahieu, in the club’s opinion, offers elite defense and superior makeup, and some of the team’s internal data suggested he was under-valued offensively.

With the Yankees obligated to pay shortstop Troy Tulowitzki only the minimum $550,000, they essentially are getting two infielders for the price of one while creating numerous options for manager Aaron Boone.

Two examples:

On days LeMahieu plays first base, the Yankees can go with Luke Voit or Greg Bird at DH and use Giancarlo Stanton in left field. On days left-hander CC Sabathia is pitching, the Yankees can use LeMahieu at third base and Miguel Andújar at DH and Stanton in left.”
 

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Rosenthal on LeMahieu in The Athletic:

“The Yankees viewed LeMahieu as the second-best free-agent infielder behind Manny Machado, ranking him ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie and the rest. LeMahieu, in the club’s opinion, offers elite defense and superior makeup, and some of the team’s internal data suggested he was under-valued offensively.

With the Yankees obligated to pay shortstop Troy Tulowitzki only the minimum $550,000, they essentially are getting two infielders for the price of one while creating numerous options for manager Aaron Boone.

Two examples:

On days LeMahieu plays first base, the Yankees can go with Luke Voit or Greg Bird at DH and use Giancarlo Stanton in left field. On days left-hander CC Sabathia is pitching, the Yankees can use LeMahieu at third base and Miguel Andújar at DH and Stanton in left.”
Rays-ian.
 

jon abbey

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OK, thanks to the NY Post and Jim Hendry, I think I have figured out the LeMahieu thing. The plan is not for him to be a starter, with or without Machado, but a well-paid utility infielder, 10th/11th man along with Gardner in the OF. Hendry is currently an assistant to Cashman and was the Cubs GM in 2009 when he drafted LeMahieu in the second round, so he has been following him a long time, lots of good info here.

==========================

Though LeMahieu has played almost exclusively second base in the majors, Hendry noted he was a shortstop for much of his time at LSU and played multiple infield positions in the Cubs organization before Theo Epstein traded him to Colorado following the 2011 season.

“There’s no doubt he can slide over to third base or shortstop if we need him to,’’ Hendry said. “He can play all four infield positions.”

https://nypost.com/2019/01/15/why-dj-lemahieu-will-be-a-perfect-fit-on-the-yankees/

==========================

So now this is my guess as to the plan from here: NY is still quite in on Machado I think, but the backup plan I think might not be standing pat, but be something like Moustakas at 1/8 and then maybe take a run at Rendon or Arenado (amazing how many overlapping letters those two have) next winter if they like one of those guys more long-term than Manny Spikefoot.

So either way NY brings in a 3B and bumps Andujar to DH and Stanton to LF, and LeMahieu becomes a Rolls Royce version of Ronald Torreyes. He will need reps, especially at SS, but clearly that is the role they signed him for, over guys like Galvis or Iglesias or Hechevarria so they must be pretty confident he can do it.
 

jon abbey

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TL/DR: I think NY is still very much in on Machado, but if the backup plan from here is Moustakas and Ottavino, I like that a lot too.
 
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TL/DR: I think NY is still very much in on Machado, but if the backup plan from here is Moustakas and Ottavino, I like that a lot too.
As long as the backup isn’t Ottavino now and Arenado at the deadline. I’d be pretty pissed if we didn’t sign a cheap 3B like Mous but used more capital at the deadline for Arenado
 

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As long as the backup isn’t Ottavino now and Arenado at the deadline. I’d be pretty pissed if we didn’t sign a cheap 3B like Mous but used more capital at the deadline for Arenado
Good point. I agree.

Edit: And just to be clear, I really like the idea of Ottavino and Moustakas coming aboard if Machadao doesn't work out.

I just hope the Machado thing gets resolved soonest before those guys go elsewhere.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,135
Yeah, I think a bunch of guys who are left are waiting for one or both of Harper or Machado to resolve, Keuchel and Kimbrel as well as Ottavino and maybe Moustakas and probably some others too. PHI is going to sign a bunch of the next tier guys if they don't get either of the big guys, pretty sure.