2018 Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady: Still Proving It

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InstaFace

MDLzera
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That should be in The Nation's Tears. Wow.

I always enjoy when people try to label Brady a "system quarterback", because it's so much fun to then ask "okay, what was that system?" and watch them stammer and dissemble. Anyone who's paid attention knows that he's operated under about half a dozen different offensive systems in his 18 years, spanning 3 OCs and several generational shifts in league-wide tactics. The chameleon-esque nature of what's emphasized in his offense has been a big part of his staying power. Drafted Gronk and Hernandez? Time for a 2-TE base set! Got a few quick RBs this year? Time for more outlet passes, wheel routes and play-action. Manage to trade for Randy fucking Moss? Uh, yeah, let's throw it deep to him, a lot. First year or two in the league? Let's stick mostly to dump-offs, curls, and other simple action with simple reads of the defense, throwing more rarely.

I'm sure someone like @mascho could go a lot deeper into the career-long tactical evolution of the Patriots offense, but that would just add detail to what we all already know.
 

Brand Name

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I always enjoy when people try to label Brady a "system quarterback", because it's so much fun to then ask "okay, what was that system?" and watch them stammer and dissemble.
The great thing about when approached about this is I tell them he plays in the Perkins-Erhardt system, which is true on the most basic of levels and applies directly to this lazy claim since they're not asking about personnel packages, concepts, and so on*. Then I explain a bit how XYZ/952 receivers don't really have absolutely set positions, everyone has to know every route, which makes it harder to learn for receivers AND the QB. Again, that simplifies a bit, but it does the trick. For the cherry on the sundae though, I mention that Perkins-Erhardt is also the system Bowles ran with the Jets the past four years. Forget the rings, where's the playoff appearances for Gang Green in that time? Fin.

*One of these times though, someone's going set me off and I will talk about the complexity of their offense, in which I will pull out my smartphone to demonstrate an on the spot poor man's Belistrator. Say, run game they've found unique ways (by frequency) of late: outside zone, pin pulls, power, etc. Then, of course, just how strong the freaking ACE Blocking is between Andrews/Mason on the whole. I could wax about what Develin does all day in this 'system' as a fucking core cog as a guy who often seals the second level to open opportunities. I doubt the poor sap who claimed system QB bullshit knows who he is.

If that's not enough, I'm going to talk about how they beat Cover 3 routinely with the Smash-Seam concept, which was run a bit more around 2014-16 but still killer. Two outside wideouts run smashes, to trick the CBs to not get the inside routes, and ultimately smashes the shell three deep so you can use the interior seam routes between the safety and CB. Sometimes they'll put Edelman at Z to go directly over the middle. You want to talk about how the game is, outside of SF, so much 11 personnel? Pats were a 26th at 56.0% of snaps in 11, warrants mention. Given how the Pats zag when everyone else zigs (hey, TE draft trends, meet your perfect counter, Joejuan Williams!), this one's a good example: The post-dig concept in 21. Lead strongside run fake, TE at Y blocks, Brady gets loads of time to throw to run a deep post at Z, while X is afforded, well, the dig, disguised initially as a go.
 

steveluck7

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That should be in The Nation's Tears. Wow.

I always enjoy when people try to label Brady a "system quarterback", because it's so much fun to then ask "okay, what was that system?" and watch them stammer and dissemble. Anyone who's paid attention knows that he's operated under about half a dozen different offensive systems in his 18 years, spanning 3 OCs and several generational shifts in league-wide tactics. The chameleon-esque nature of what's emphasized in his offense has been a big part of his staying power. Drafted Gronk and Hernandez? Time for a 2-TE base set! Got a few quick RBs this year? Time for more outlet passes, wheel routes and play-action. Manage to trade for Randy fucking Moss? Uh, yeah, let's throw it deep to him, a lot. First year or two in the league? Let's stick mostly to dump-offs, curls, and other simple action with simple reads of the defense, throwing more rarely.

I'm sure someone like @mascho could go a lot deeper into the career-long tactical evolution of the Patriots offense, but that would just add detail to what we all already know.
I actually think “the system” has been largely the same since he took over. Watch the video of his first start posted above. TE seams, crossing patterns to a slot WR, swing passes, quick hits, and check downs to RBs.
Call Brady a “system” QB all you want... I’ll point out that the “system” he runs is as follows:
- read the coverage and match-ups impeccably pre-snap
- know where the open receiver is going to be
- motion to create Mis- matches
- work through your progressions ridiculously quickly
- evade the rush while keeping your eyes downfield
- make a decision
- fire superbly accurate passes

That’s the system he’s run for almost 20 years now
 

Harry Hooper

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I actually think “the system” has been largely the same since he took over. Watch the video of his first start posted above. TE seams, crossing patterns to a slot WR, swing passes, quick hits, and check downs to RBs.
Call Brady a “system” QB all you want... I’ll point out that the “system” he runs is as follows:
- read the coverage and match-ups impeccably pre-snap
- know where the open receiver is going to be
- motion to create Mis- matches
- work through your progressions ridiculously quickly
- evade the rush while keeping your eyes downfield
- make a decision
- fire superbly accurate passes

That’s the system he’s run for almost 20 years now
Yes, or just play that clip of the Miami defensive line coach Jim Washburn bemoaning how Brady was counter-acting every adjustment the Dolphins made.
 

rodderick

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I just find it hilarious that we've finally cycled back from "cheater" to "system QB". All it took was going to 4 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them and getting another MVP after Deflategate.
 

BornToRun

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I just find it hilarious that we've finally cycled back from "cheater" to "system QB". All it took was going to 4 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them and getting another MVP after Deflategate.
My favorite development of the past 5~ years is that no one serious actually thinks Manning has the edge anymore. There is no more debate. It’s Tom Brady and a bunch of people staring at the back of his jersey as he widens the gap.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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I thought someone would have posted this by now.

Brady and his team posted a video today of him running what they say is a 5.17-second 40-yard dash. That’s far from elite for an NFL player, but it’s an impressive time for Brady.

That’s because at the 2000 Scouting Combine, Brady ran the 40 in 5.28 seconds. Few athletes — few people in the general population, for that matter — can run faster in their early 40s than in their early 20s.
Could it be a little creative timing? Sure, but even if he’s running the same time 19 years later that’s not really common.
 

BaseballJones

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“Most receiving yards after age 40 in NFL history:

2,509: Jerry Rice
6: Tom Brady
0: everyone else except Brett Favre
-2: Brett Favre”
He's gotta be closing in on the over-40 rushing record as well, right?

EDIT: And in answer to my question...

1. Doug Flutie: 212
2. Vinny Testaverde: 73
3. Warren Moon: 58
4. Earl Morrall: 44
5. Vince Evans: 36
6. Tom Brady: 28

So just 8 more to pass Evans. Just 16 more to pass Morrall. 30 to pass Moon. He's averaged 3.7 rush yards a game over his career, 2.9 per game over the past three seasons. So let's go with 3 yards a game. Over 16 games, he could get 48 yards this year, which would get him to 76, #2 on the list! I don't see him passing Flutie, but it would be amazing for Brady to be #1 in passing, #2 in rushing, and #2 in receiving after the age of 40.
 
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azsoxpatsfan

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He's gotta be closing in on the over-40 rushing record as well, right?

EDIT: And in answer to my question...

1. Doug Flutie: 212
2. Vinny Testaverde: 73
3. Warren Moon: 58
4. Earl Morrall: 44
5. Vince Evans: 36
6. Tom Brady: 28

So just 8 more to pass Evans. Just 16 more to pass Morrall. 30 to pass Moon. He's averaged 3.7 rush yards a game over his career, 2.9 per game over the past three seasons. So let's go with 3 yards a game. Over 16 games, he could get 48 yards this year, which would get him to 76, #2 on the list! I don't see him passing Flutie, but it would be amazing for Brady to be #1 in passing, #2 in rushing, and #2 in receiving after the age of 40.
Currently 3rd with 63. Vinny Testaverde has 73, Doug Flutie 212. Just average 40 a year till 45!
 

RetractableRoof

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He's gotta be closing in on the over-40 rushing record as well, right?

EDIT: And in answer to my question...

1. Doug Flutie: 212
2. Vinny Testaverde: 73
3. Warren Moon: 58
4. Earl Morrall: 44
5. Vince Evans: 36
6. Tom Brady: 28

So just 8 more to pass Evans. Just 16 more to pass Morrall. 30 to pass Moon. He's averaged 3.7 rush yards a game over his career, 2.9 per game over the past three seasons. So let's go with 3 yards a game. Over 16 games, he could get 48 yards this year, which would get him to 76, #2 on the list! I don't see him passing Flutie, but it would be amazing for Brady to be #1 in passing, #2 in rushing, and #2 in receiving after the age of 40.
Well, now we know why he's working on his sprint times... he's got his eye on the rushing record.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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He's gotta be closing in on the over-40 rushing record as well, right?

EDIT: And in answer to my question...

1. Doug Flutie: 212
2. Vinny Testaverde: 73
3. Warren Moon: 58
4. Earl Morrall: 44
5. Vince Evans: 36
6. Tom Brady: 28

So just 8 more to pass Evans. Just 16 more to pass Morrall. 30 to pass Moon. He's averaged 3.7 rush yards a game over his career, 2.9 per game over the past three seasons. So let's go with 3 yards a game. Over 16 games, he could get 48 yards this year, which would get him to 76, #2 on the list! I don't see him passing Flutie, but it would be amazing for Brady to be #1 in passing, #2 in rushing, and #2 in receiving after the age of 40.
I’m guessing you’re getting that from the reddit post that’s the first link when you google it. That 28 doesn’t count last season when he had 35 so he’s already passed everyone but vinny and flutie
 

Mugsy's Jock

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He's gotta be closing in on the over-40 rushing record as well, right?

EDIT: And in answer to my question...

1. Doug Flutie: 212
2. Vinny Testaverde: 73
3. Warren Moon: 58
4. Earl Morrall: 44
5. Vince Evans: 36
6. Tom Brady: 28

So just 8 more to pass Evans. Just 16 more to pass Morrall. 30 to pass Moon. He's averaged 3.7 rush yards a game over his career, 2.9 per game over the past three seasons. So let's go with 3 yards a game. Over 16 games, he could get 48 yards this year, which would get him to 76, #2 on the list! I don't see him passing Flutie, but it would be amazing for Brady to be #1 in passing, #2 in rushing, and #2 in receiving after the age of 40.
The placekicking challenge might be a little tougher, though I wouldn't count him out.
 

RGREELEY33

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The great thing about when approached about this is I tell them he plays in the Perkins-Erhardt system, which is true on the most basic of levels and applies directly to this lazy claim since they're not asking about personnel packages, concepts, and so on*. Then I explain a bit how XYZ/952 receivers don't really have absolutely set positions, everyone has to know every route, which makes it harder to learn for receivers AND the QB. Again, that simplifies a bit, but it does the trick. For the cherry on the sundae though, I mention that Perkins-Erhardt is also the system Bowles ran with the Jets the past four years. Forget the rings, where's the playoff appearances for Gang Green in that time? Fin.

*One of these times though, someone's going set me off and I will talk about the complexity of their offense, in which I will pull out my smartphone to demonstrate an on the spot poor man's Belistrator. Say, run game they've found unique ways (by frequency) of late: outside zone, pin pulls, power, etc. Then, of course, just how strong the freaking ACE Blocking is between Andrews/Mason on the whole. I could wax about what Develin does all day in this 'system' as a fucking core cog as a guy who often seals the second level to open opportunities. I doubt the poor sap who claimed system QB bullshit knows who he is.

If that's not enough, I'm going to talk about how they beat Cover 3 routinely with the Smash-Seam concept, which was run a bit more around 2014-16 but still killer. Two outside wideouts run smashes, to trick the CBs to not get the inside routes, and ultimately smashes the shell three deep so you can use the interior seam routes between the safety and CB. Sometimes they'll put Edelman at Z to go directly over the middle. You want to talk about how the game is, outside of SF, so much 11 personnel? Pats were a 26th at 56.0% of snaps in 11, warrants mention. Given how the Pats zag when everyone else zigs (hey, TE draft trends, meet your perfect counter, Joejuan Williams!), this one's a good example: The post-dig concept in 21. Lead strongside run fake, TE at Y blocks, Brady gets loads of time to throw to run a deep post at Z, while X is afforded, well, the dig, disguised initially as a go.
I heart this post.

I almost want to memorize it and whip it out at parties.
 

Don Buddin's GS

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Had the chance to hear The GOAT speak at the AOSSM Conference in Boston on Friday. I'm sure Dave Roberts Shoes was there somewhere. Brady talked about all of the obstacles he has had to overcome in his career and how he views them as opportunities rather than problems. “I wouldn’t change a thing because they made me what I am today.”

The session was moderated by sportscaster Jim Gray, a good friend of TB12’s. One little known fact about Jim Gray is that the very first person he ever interviewed was Muhammad Ali; the very last interview that Ali gave was to the same Jim Gray.

So it only stands to reason that Gray would be close with Muhammad’s widow, Lonnie. Jim told the story about how he and Tom were playing golf recently when Lonnie called him. It was Gray’s turn to hit so he said to Lonnie “Here, I’ll let you talk to Tom Brady.” A few minutes later it was Brady’s turn so he handed the phone back to Jim. Lonnie told Gray that she really admired Brady. Lonnie said of Tom: “He’s the only sports figure who reminds me of my husband.”

He says he wants to play until he’s 45. I wouldn’t bet against him. He'll be 42 on August 3rd -- we have the same birthday!
 
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bakahump

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Saw a meme yesterday:
Tom Brady has gone to 52% of the Superbowls that have been played while he has been a starting Qb.
Steph Curry hits 43% of 3pters for his career.

So in Short Tom "MFing" Brady is more likely to go to the Superbowl then Steph Curry is to hit a 3.
 

tims4wins

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Saw a meme yesterday:
Tom Brady has gone to 52% of the Superbowls that have been played while he has been a starting Qb.
Steph Curry hits 43% of 3pters for his career.

So in Short Tom "MFing" Brady is more likely to go to the Superbowl then Steph Curry is to hit a 3.
9/17 = 53%. Booyah.

Edit: Barry Bonds got on base at a 51.5% clip during his 73 HR season. Brady is more likely to go to the Super Bowl.
 

bakahump

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Thanks @tims4wins for correcting me.

Someone who is better with the Math then Me can come up with how Many 3s Steph would have to hit in a row to tie TB.

Also if TB DOESNT go to the SB the next 3 years and retires. (Yea right) He will still be a 45% career SB avg. Not sure how many 3s Steph will have to hit in a row to increase his % to 45+% but its probably alot.
 

tims4wins

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Thanks @tims4wins for correcting me.

Someone who is better with the Math then Me can come up with how Many 3s Steph would have to hit in a row to tie TB.

Also if TB DOESNT go to the SB the next 3 years and retires. (Yea right) He will still be a 45% career SB avg. Not sure how many 3s Steph will have to hit in a row to increase his % to 45+% but its probably alot.
Curry is currently 2483-5690, 43.6%. To get to 44.5%, he would need to hit 89 straight 3s.

To get to 45.0%, he would need to hit 141 straight 3s.

To get to 52.94% and match Brady's SB %, he would need to hit 1125 straight 3s.

Assuming the Pats don't win the SB and Brady falls to 50%, he would need to hit 724 straight 3s.
 

bakahump

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Bill Russell (and Yogi Berra and a host of MFYs) is about the only guy saying "Hold My Beer".
 

BuellMiller

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Someone might want to check my math, but the odds of Yogi Berra winning the AL Pennant 14 out of 18 times* is about the same as Brady winning the AFC 9 out of 17 times, assuming each team in their conference had an equal chance to begin with. (I.e. the AL had 8 teams for the first 15 years, and 10 for Berra's last 3 years with the Yankees, so any given year he had either a 1/8 or 1/10 chance), while I believe the AFC had 16 teams for every year Brady was a starter (they added the Texans in 2002 but moved the Seahawks to the NFC to make them even, right?).
Berra: 18!/[(14!*(18-14)!)) / (8^15*10^3) = 8.7E-14
Brady: 17!/[(9!*(17-9)!)) / (16^17) = 1.3E-15
(haven't done these types of stats in awhile, so I may be very rusty...i guess I should have done the odds of winning 14 or more and 9 or more, but I think those won't change the overall order of magnitude too much?)
*Ignoring his year with the mets.
Also, the playoff structure of the NFL affects things a bit, but I just assumed a generalized randomness to the outcomes.
 

h8mfy

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Jul 15, 2005
260
This morning I was in a meeting with a vendor showing off their 8K camera. They had taken footage at SBL11, and left the camera running after the game ended. Their PPT preso had a pic of the post-game aftermath, with a giant arrow pointing at the guy who stole Brady's jersey - it was their footage that the FBI used to track down how he crossed the field to exit with the stolen goods.
 

Mooch

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Brady is heading into the final year of his contract and speculation is that there's no new deal on the horizon. Could this be his final season? Would the Pats let him hit Free Agency at 43 years old? Do they strike an extension before the end of training camp?
 

Blue Monkey

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This morning I was in a meeting with a vendor showing off their 8K camera. They had taken footage at SBL11, and left the camera running after the game ended. Their PPT preso had a pic of the post-game aftermath, with a giant arrow pointing at the guy who stole Brady's jersey - it was their footage that the FBI used to track down how he crossed the field to exit with the stolen goods.
Interesting. Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe TB12 has his jersey stolen from the locker room. Did the guy yoink it and escape via the field?
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Brady is heading into the final year of his contract and speculation is that there's no new deal on the horizon. Could this be his final season? Would the Pats let him hit Free Agency at 43 years old? Do they strike an extension before the end of training camp?
He can't restructure if it means a bigger cap his this year. You have to o wait a full calendar year to do that and he did that last August.
 

Saints Rest

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Miguel has been pretty confident that we will see a 5-year extension in August, structured so that his cap hit goes down, his cash received goes up, and that the dead money, whenever it happens, would be spread over two years at $7.5M/year.

Brady’s 2019 cap number is currently $27 million. It consists of:

— $14,000,000 salary
— $7,000,000 signing bonus proration from 2016 $28 million signing bonus
— $5,000,000 signing bonus proration from 2018 $10 million signing bonus
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

Brady’s 2019 compensation is currently $15 million. It consists of:

— $14,000,000 salary
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

I project the Patriots will reach an extension with Brady before the regular-season opener. This extension will lower Brady’s cap number from $27 million to $22 million. Projected details:

Signing bonus: $30 million
Guaranteed money: $53 million
Fully Guaranteed at the signing: $53 million
New money total: $85 million ($100 million over four years)
Contract length: Three-year extension
Average per year: $28.3 million

Brady’s 2019 cap number will then be $22 million. It would consist of:

— $1,500,000 salary
— $7,000,000 signing bonus proration from 2016 $28 million signing bonus
— $5,000,000 signing bonus proration from 2018 $10 million signing bonus
— $7,500,000 signing bonus proration from 2019 $30 million signing bonus
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

Brady’s 2019 compensation would increase from $15 million to $32.5 million. It would consist of:

— $1,500,000 salary
— $30,000,000 signing bonus
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

Brady’s 2020/2021/2022 cap numbers will then be $30 million. They would consist of:

— $21,500,000 salary
— $7,500,000 signing bonus proration from 2019 $30 million signing bonus
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

Brady’s 2020/2021/2022 annual compensation would be $22,500,000. They would consist of:

— $21,500,000 salary
— $1,000,000 46-man roster bonuses ($62,500 per game)

I’m not worried about future dead money because I expect Brady to officially retire after June 1 which would allow the Patriots to spread the hit over two years (the year Brady retires and the following year). For example, if Brady were to retire on June 2, 2021, his 2021 dead money will be $7.5 million, and his 2022 dead money will be $7.5 million. In 2014 Aaron Hernandez’s dead money was $7.5 million. That amount did not prevent the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl that season. In 2021 the league cap will likely be over 50 percent higher than it was in 2014.
MODS: If that is too big a cut-and-paste from a subscription service, my apologies. Let me know and I'll remove it.
 

InstaFace

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This morning I was in a meeting with a vendor showing off their 8K camera. They had taken footage at SBL11, and left the camera running after the game ended. Their PPT preso had a pic of the post-game aftermath, with a giant arrow pointing at the guy who stole Brady's jersey - it was their footage that the FBI used to track down how he crossed the field to exit with the stolen goods.
Nice story. I wonder, whatever happened to that guy?
It is unclear whether Ortega has officially escaped prosecution. In some cases, suspects can be apprehended and charged the next time they visit the U.S. But, according to a DOJ source, Ortega’s visa has been revoked. He resigned from his job on March 14, two days after the raid, and the NFL says it has banned him from games for life, making it unlikely that he’ll be returning to the U.S. anytime soon. A Houston PD official still wants him extradited, but Mexican officials believe there is little chance of that happening.
How about the 19-year-old kid who cracked the case? He got hooked up.

---

As for Tom Brady's contract, Miguel's extension makes sense to me, but I'm a little surprised that they wouldn't take the opportunity to let him go to free agency so they could then agree on something less than that (but fully guaranteed through 2021 or something), and pour more into other roster positions. Wouldn't Brady jump at the chance to be fully guaranteed through his age 45 season, and have a more competitive roster around him as well? The marginal utility on a couple more mil in his bank account must be vanishingly small.
 
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