2018 RoY Discussion

JakeRae

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We're getting to the point where there can be a real conversation on this topic and I thought it would be fun to start a thread, particularly since a Celtic is in the running this year.

I think it's a 5 man race at this point. Simmons, Tatum, and Kuzma are probably the top 3 contenders with Mitchell and Lonzo rounding out the top 5. Guys like Collins, Bell and Onunoby are not playing enough minutes to be in the conversation even though they are playing very well.

I think Simmons probably has the edge on Tatum at this point, but Tatum has a real case that may only get stronger if his offensive role continues to expand. Tatum may also benefit from being on a winning team when voting time comes around. The advanced stats are split. WS likes Tatum by a big margin, BPM thinks they are neck and neck, and RPM gives Simmons a moderate edge although that had been shrinking as the season has gone on.
 

bosox79

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If the season ended today, I think Simmons gets the award. I think by season's end, Donovan Mitchell will have a strong claim for the award. Tatum just isn't involved enough in the Celtics offense to make a run at ROY.

I guess Kuzma could make a run at the award too but he'd have to score a lot more.
 

Eddie Jurak

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1. Simmons should not even be eligible. During his rookie year, he played no games and no minutes. He was hurt, sure, but did Philly bring him back as soon as he was able or choose to hold him out? Despite his rehab, he had the full benefit of an NBA salary, NBA team rehab facilities, access to NBA coaching and support staff, etc. He's a second year player.

2. Since Simmons is technically a rookie, it is obvious that he and Tatum are the front runners. Barring injury or some guy coming out of nowhere, they will finish first and second. I agree, Kuzma, Ball, and Mitchell are probably next in line, but I'd go Mitchell. I don't think Ball or Kuzma desrve any realistic consideration for the award unless they really step up during the second half of the season. Other guys could maybe work into consideration during the second half, but if the vote is today Mitchell is my clear #3.

3. The case for Simmons is that he's the guy on that Philly team, leading them in minutes, assists, etc, and second behind Embiid in usage. Win Shares, BPM comparisons with Tatum should be taken with a grain of salt because the Celtics are a better team with more wins and a better point differential. The case against Simmons is his Rondoesque shot and that fact that he's not really the guy on that team - Embiid is, and like last year, Philly goes as Embiid goes.

4. The case for Tatum is that he has fit himself seamlessly into a 29-10 team, leading them in minutes, doing well in nearly all phases of the game. Tremendous offensive efficiency, almost umprecedented for a player his age. Shooting almost 50% from three. Driving for dunks and layups. Getting himself to the line. Producing in the 4th quarters of lose games. Rebounding well, and showing flashes of passing skill. Fitting into team defsive concepts, enough so that he can block Harden on a crunch time iso. The biggest knock is that he hasn't been a high usage guy the way Simmons has.

Going into the year, I kind of though Simmons winning the award was a foregone conclusion. Right now, though, I think it is a tossup that will be decided in the second half. One would think, given his second year status, that Simmons is likely to fare better vs the rookie wall than Tatum. But Tatum is a special player and the Celtics will have the benefit of a more relaxed second half schedule. Maybe Tatum will learn some stuff once the Celtics start getting to run team practices.
 

bosox79

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1. Simmons should not even be eligible. During his rookie year, he played no games and no minutes. He was hurt, sure, but did Philly bring him back as soon as he was able or choose to hold him out? Despite his rehab, he had the full benefit of an NBA salary, NBA team rehab facilities, access to NBA coaching and support staff, etc. He's a second year player.

2. Since Simmons is technically a rookie, it is obvious that he and Tatum are the front runners. Barring injury or some guy coming out of nowhere, they will finish first and second. I agree, Kuzma, Ball, and Mitchell are probably next in line, but I'd go Mitchell. I don't think Ball or Kuzma desrve any realistic consideration for the award unless they really step up during the second half of the season. Other guys could maybe work into consideration during the second half, but if the vote is today Mitchell is my clear #3.

3. The case for Simmons is that he's the guy on that Philly team, leading them in minutes, assists, etc, and second behind Embiid in usage. Win Shares, BPM comparisons with Tatum should be taken with a grain of salt because the Celtics are a better team with more wins and a better point differential. The case against Simmons is his Rondoesque shot and that fact that he's not really the guy on that team - Embiid is, and like last year, Philly goes as Embiid goes.

4. The case for Tatum is that he has fit himself seamlessly into a 29-10 team, leading them in minutes, doing well in nearly all phases of the game. Tremendous offensive efficiency, almost umprecedented for a player his age. Shooting almost 50% from three. Driving for dunks and layups. Getting himself to the line. Producing in the 4th quarters of lose games. Rebounding well, and showing flashes of passing skill. Fitting into team defsive concepts, enough so that he can block Harden on a crunch time iso. The biggest knock is that he hasn't been a high usage guy the way Simmons has.

Going into the year, I kind of though Simmons winning the award was a foregone conclusion. Right now, though, I think it is a tossup that will be decided in the second half. One would think, given his second year status, that Simmons is likely to fare better vs the rookie wall than Tatum. But Tatum is a special player and the Celtics will have the benefit of a more relaxed second half schedule. Maybe Tatum will learn some stuff once the Celtics start getting to run team practices.

Meh, it's always been that way. Joel Embiid almost won ROY last season. Blake Griffin a few years back. I think they are rookies until they actually play a game.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think we should retroactively give Simmons Malcolm Brogdon's 2016 ROTY award. Man what a difference in rookie classes.

I suppose the main thing Tatum has going against him is that, by old-fashioned counting stats, he's only scoring 14.2 per game. Mitchell and Simmons are both in the 17-18 ppg range.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Meh, it's always been that way. Joel Embiid almost won ROY last season. Blake Griffin a few years back. I think they are rookies until they actually play a game.
That is how the NBA views them. My point is that it is and has been bullshit.

Edit: If Ben Simmons wants to be a rookie, then he should give back last year's salary and play 2017-18 as year 1 of his rookie deal.
 

JakeRae

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I think the usage issue is a bit of a red herring. Sure, Simmons has much higher usage, but he's only scoring marginally more. He's taken 100 more shots, scored the exact same number of points, but done it in 6 fewer games. The bigger edge Simmons has is he is a better passer, rebounder, and creates a lot more steals. I think that, right now, the rebound and assist edge probably carries him, but the scoring efficiency difference is pretty massive.

As for Mitchell, he's providing lots of volume but not much efficiency and doesn't fill up the box score like Simmons. I don't think he has a real case v. Simmons or Tatum. Comparing to Tatum again, he's taken 160 more shots to get 50 more points.
 

Cellar-Door

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Simmons
Mitchell/Tatum

Would be my ballot right now. Projecting out I think Simmons or Mitchell wins and that nobody outside the 3 above has a chance
 

bosox79

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I think the usage issue is a bit of a red herring. Sure, Simmons has much higher usage, but he's only scoring marginally more. He's taken 100 more shots, scored the exact same number of points, but done it in 6 fewer games. The bigger edge Simmons has is he is a better passer, rebounder, and creates a lot more steals. I think that, right now, the rebound and assist edge probably carries him, but the scoring efficiency difference is pretty massive.

As for Mitchell, he's providing lots of volume but not much efficiency and doesn't fill up the box score like Simmons. I don't think he has a real case v. Simmons or Tatum. Comparing to Tatum again, he's taken 160 more shots to get 50 more points.

Take out his first 5 games, and Mitchell has been significantly more effective. Last 29 games, .455/.376./849, 19.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals and .509 from 2. Last 15: .504/.400/.843, 22.3, 3.1, 3.7, 1.7. He's trending in the right direction. Basically trails behind Simmons in every category except points and 3 point shooting though. That's why Simmons probably wins the award easily because he'll be top 3 in scoring, first in rebounds, 1st in assists, 1st in steals.

I don't know if the people who vote for ROY really care about efficiency or all the advanced metrics anyway. Tatum doesn't really match up well with traditional stats but if they do, he could finish 2nd. I think Mitchell overtakes him though.