2018 Patriots: All-Purpose Roster Discussions Thread
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Why do you say the bolded? Isn't it as likely that he has trouble learning the system and struggles to mesh with Brady? It's not like we haven't had this happen before (see: Ochocinco, Chad) -- and this is not even consider the potential for a distraction in the locker room. This team does not exactly have a great track record of wringing a last year or two out of old receivers who've lost a step.
The desire for Dez is weird to me, he's washed, isn't 4th/5th WR a better spot for a developmental guy than a washed 30 year old who can't/won't learn routes?
I want to see Dez in an offense with a QB that can actually throw the ball before I pour dirt on the grave of his NFL career. I think he could still be useful in the red zone.
Dez can’t get open and will be a pain in the ass about getting touches, especially if the offense experiences a rough patch.
I’m sure he’d catch some jump balls/contested sideline passes, but how does that really fit in with a team that mixes personnel, doesn’t look to ‘feed’ players unless it is to attack a specific weakness/matchup, and asks a lot of WR in terms of dirty work (e.g. run blocking).
Do we really want him in everyone’s ear when 15 straight targets go to Gronk or a back because the LB/S in question can’t cover them?
I’m sure he’d catch some jump balls/contested sideline passes, but how does that really fit in with a team that mixes personnel, doesn’t look to ‘feed’ players unless it is to attack a specific weakness/matchup, and asks a lot of WR in terms of dirty work (e.g. run blocking).
Do we really want him in everyone’s ear when 15 straight targets go to Gronk or a back because the LB/S in question can’t cover them?
Worth noting: if they want to promote a PS guy (Webb, Billingsley, Anderson), they can always do it later in the week. With the empty roster spots, they the opportunity to get non-PS guys in the door and evaluate them in a practice setting. They may very well decide, after three practices, that they've seen enough out of Coleman / Fowler / whoever and promote a PS guy for Sunday's game.
It’s not just us. The Eagles and Redskins have such QBs in Foles/Wentz and Alex Smith. They are thin and banged up at WR. They even have the intra-divisional rivalry thing going. No interest.
He’s likely washed, has always been high maintenance, and don’t forget that parting shot he gave to former Dallas teammates a while back.
I think your second paragraph is the main reason. His physical skills certainly have declined and it’s probably at the point where teams feel that whatever he can give is not enough to offset the potential baggage. Still hard to reconcile the Ravens offering 3/23 and nobody else even being remotely interested outside of the Browns.
This is where I am as well. I'm curious, for those who are big on Dez Bryant with the Pats, what you see differently. Also, what do you make of every single team seemingly passing on the guy---is that about salary demands, rep, or an assessment of his current skill level?
I would not go off what the Ravens did in this instance. Look at the contract they agreed to with Ryan Grant before they came to their senses and dishonorably backed out of it — and look at what the Colts signed Grant for very shortly thereafter.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/nfl/2018/03/20/indianapolis-colts-sign-ryan-grant
Every organization has its strengths and weaknesses. WR for the Ravens the biggest swing-and-miss zone.
Nice signings. Others not nice and their draft history at the position is bad.
Torrey Smith also worked out pretty well for them. Perriman was a swing and a miss.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bs-sp-draft-20171015-story,amp.html
And the 4-yr $29 MM contract to Ryan Grant this past offseason was crazytown.
And the 4-yr $29 MM contract to Ryan Grant this past offseason was crazytown.
Agree on Grant but Perriman is really the only high pick bust they've had at WR and they're certainly not alone in that department.
Agreed, but it's not like the Pats are sparkling there either. Welker, Edelman, Moss, Branch. Beyond that, I don't think they're all that different.
Obvious difference at QB, but Flacco was better on Sunday than I’ve seen him in a long time, and Ravens appear stacked at TE.
I agree with you all that we are rolling dice with injury gods, and it’s not comfortable. The only consolation is we’ll be better week 5 than 4 barring freak practice injury. But we could be in jeopardy by week 4.
And the Michel situation is pissing me off more with each passing week because we went into that with eyes wide open.
Well, yes, obvious difference at QB, but doesn't that make the Pats track record worse?
They never had close to Gronk or Brady, and you can get by with less if you have GOATs at those two positions.
The point remains that for this year at least, we are exposed. And it has been clear for some time — since the 4-game suspension, the cutting of Mitchell — that this would be the case. It’s been clear for even longer that we have multiple draft picks in several rounds next spring.
If they tried to do something with that draft capital but couldn’t, fine, shit happens. If they didn’t and the risk materializes, it’s on them.
Meanwhile, I can’t parse the relative merits of fill ins who did not make an NFL roster and have no desire to do so. Heavy deference to them on that.
But the potentially pivotal decision was made weeks ago.
I'm sure plenty of teams would be willing to risk a veteran minimum contract on him, but I bet he won't play for that.
I apologize because we must be crossing wires here...you said the Ravens have a big swing and miss in their organization at WR. I assumed you meant historically and, as such, responded that I don't think the Pats track record is much better. If you meant specifically to this season, in reference to Dez, ok, I must have missed that nuance.
Was there someone you think the Pats could have picked up but didn't?
Receivers traded since the start of the league year (in chronological order):
Marcus Johnson (2x)
Torrey Smith
Jarvis Landry (highly doubtful that Dolphins would have traded him to Pats)
Cordarelle Patterson
Brandin Cooks
Martavius Bryant
Tavon Austin
Ryan Switzer (2x)
Corey Coleman
Since the Cooks trade, it's basically been more flotsam and jetsam. Maybe they could have been more aggressive in free agency, but that's not always a productive well either. Doubt there was much available once minicamp concluded (which was the timeframe of the Edelman announcement, and by which time they would have had a good inkling that Mitchell wasn't going to be back).
From their predraft measurements he is one inch taller and 4 pounds heavier than Dion Lewis.
They found their bigger back!
I was referring to potential trades, and we don’t know who was available and at what price. And I acknowledged that, along with the possibility that they did try but couldn’t arrive at a deal at an acceptable cost.
Where you can question their strategy is essentially ignoring the position in the draft since taking Dobson / Boyce in 2013. They've only taken a fourth-rounder (Mitchell), a sixth-rounder (Berrios), and two seventh-rounders (Devin Lucien and Jeremy Gallon). Things have broken poorly at the position over the last few months but they have not set themselves up well, and things don't look any rosier in the near future.
A key difference is the Pats have not invested high draft picks in the position. The Ravens have, with these notable results. (Update from the article below — Perriman cut and has not caught on, disaster)
https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-history-wr-0420-20160420-story,amp.html
Free agency and trades — Steve Smith Sr was heart and soul; Boldin was pretty good; the most productive was Derrick Mason.
But then you have Lee Evans, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Macklin et al.
Last year’s crew was League worst.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ravenswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/23/pff-ravens-had-worst-wide-receivers-last-season/amp/
All let go.
ITP’s draft guide looks at draft capital spent on WR and for the Pats it’s low compared to the rest of the league (31st IIRC). Rumors were the Pats looked at drafting Ridley which makes a lot of sense given that they really need to retool long term for WR. I expect them to address it one way or the other this off-season (or both - I’d guess).
We are always so concerned about the churn at the bottom of the roster. Besides the occasional Jonas Grey or a practice squad offensive lineman, do any of these guys actually make a difference in a positive way? I think of guys like Chris Harper who heavily contributed to a loss in Denver or, mostly, the bottom guys are gone within weeks. Obviously, if these guys could actually help teams they would have clinched roster spots coming out of camp.
Honestly I think the issues with the WR corps has been wildly overblown. The Patriots basically use a max of 3 WR because they have the best TE in football, and usually use a second TE and multiple backs as extra WR.
2016's group of Edeleman/Hogan/Amendola was more than good enough to get to and win a Super Bowl, and this year Dorsett honestly looks like he may be an upgrade on Dola. Having Cooks for 2017 was nice, but he was essentially replacing Edelman. The Patriots may not get a Julio Jones, but they have not had any trouble getting production out of the WR position. Now maybe the approach will need to change once Gronk is gone, to try and get a similar matchup nightmare out of the WR position instead of TE, but as of right now, I expect that they'll get the same good production they have every year out of their pass-catchers and if they don't win the SuperBowl it will be far more about the defense or O-Line than the WR corps
Sometimes they use a second TE and multiple backs, sometimes they don't. Right now they don't really have a third WR or a second TE, which is why Develin played so much Sunday. In 2017, they were predominantly a 3 WR team, though they still used more 2 TE than just about anybody (and a lot of 21).
If you tell me the Patriots' receivers (including Gronk) are going to stay healthy all year, I have no issues with the unit. But they had way more depth in 2016, with Bennett to sub for Gronk and Malcolm Mitchell in the mix along with the three you mention. This year, we are an injury away from a lot of Dwayne Allen or Cordarrelle Patterson. Last year, with Edelman and Mitchell already hurt (and Hogan missing a good chunk also), the O really sputtered in the two games Gronk missed. That's my concern.
The other issue is they have nothing beyond 2018. Dorsett, Patterson, and Hogan are all FAs and Edelman will be 33 in 2019. Another draft pick or two would have helped 2018 depth and would also improve the outlook at the position for 2019 and beyond.
Well sure, I would also be concerned if their #2, #3, #4 wide receivers, and the best tight end on Earth got hurt. But what team has the depth to absorb that? Barring injuries, Gronk, Edelman, Hogan, Dorsett, and White out of the backfield is about as good a group of weapons 1-5 that Brady has ever had. Sure, if guys get hurt, we could be in trouble, but guys always get hurt, and yet #12 still finds a way.
I can't get too upset about the Pats not spending picks on receivers. It's not who they are, and when they have drafted wide receivers, they generally haven't done well, at all. Look around the league this year, how many rookie wide receivers are having an impact? There are literally busts everywhere, like Corey Coleman. Just looking at the year he came out, these were the first round wide receivers (Coleman, Treadwell, Fuller and Doctson). The 2nd round was Michael Thomas (stud), Sterling Shepard (ok), Tyler Boyd. In round 3, you had Braxton Miller and Leonte Carooooooooo. In Round 4, you had Mitchell, Demarcus Robinson, Pharaoh Cooper, Ricardo Louis, and Chris Moore. With the exception of Tareek Hill in round 5, it actually gets worse after that. Of the 30 wide receivers drafted that year, I can count a grand total of maybe 5 that I wouldn't consider busts, and that includes Malcolm Mitchell as a non-bust. With some rare exceptions, that's pretty much how it goes every year at wide receiver, 1 out of every 6 or so that are drafted are worthwhile picks. I think the Pats going away from drafting Wide Receivers, and instead trying to find them on the waiver wire, or through trades or free agency is a smart move, and I expect that to continue into the future.
IMO, people are worrying way too much about this receiving corps, and not nearly enough with what's going on in the backfield. Who is healthy right now? James White and.....Kenjon Barner? Burkhead has a concussion, Jeremy Hill is done and Sony Michel hasn't been able to get on the field in weeks. We have 2, TWO healthy running backs, and one of them joined the team today and is basically a special teams guy. I'm actually pretty shocked they haven't brought Webb up from the practice squad yet, or gone out and actually found a guy who can give them some carries.
I said it last year at the time, and I've been saying it since, losing Dion Lewis is the one that is going to hurt us this season. Not Cooks, not Mitchell, not Edelman's suspension...Dion Lewis. I'm sure they hoped that Michel would be something very different at this point when they dumped Lewis, but even if he was, that's the spot on the team that has literally no depth at all, and right now, we aren't just missing depth, we're missing warm bodies.
Agree and disagree here. There is risk involved with any analysis looking at a position in a draft. A lot of picks bust and it is at a higher rate than most casual fans think. I know that doesn't apply to you.
Edelman is an older receiver coming off a significant injury. Gronk is also always an injury risk. I like Dorsett and it looks like he might be a solid contributor on the team but he was a bust who didn't produce much for the Patriots in 2017. Sure, the narrative was that with a year under his belt he had potential this year, but based on his track record he was no sure-thing. Like @mascho mentioned lets see how he fares against press coverage. I disagree on your assessment of the WR and its depth and adequacy but I can see your point, and through their actions maybe a bit of what the Patriots had planned there. Same with drafting vs. getting a WR in FA. It wasn't the best crop of WRs in the draft or in FA last year. I like BB's strategy of course but that doesn't mean he can't also draft a guy like Ridley high if he thinks his skills would profile well on the Pats. I think here though (re: WR) it is easy to agree to disagree.
RBs though: 1) I don't think Lewis is worth the money long term given his injury history but it doesn't look good so far going into week 2 of 2018 (a grand total of a week), 2) I think they had a good group of backs going into camp, and 3) injuries, like at WR, hit the team hard here. How many teams could withstand injuries to 3 of their top 4 guys easily? You lose a lot of guys to injuries, it's almost impossible to have fantastic depth at every position. I have no problem with how they played out RB and injury luck did not work out.
Edelman is an older receiver coming off a significant injury. Gronk is also always an injury risk. I like Dorsett and it looks like he might be a solid contributor on the team but he was a bust who didn't produce much for the Patriots in 2017. Sure, the narrative was that with a year under his belt he had potential this year, but based on his track record he was no sure-thing. Like @mascho mentioned lets see how he fares against press coverage. I disagree on your assessment of the WR and its depth and adequacy but I can see your point, and through their actions maybe a bit of what the Patriots had planned there. Same with drafting vs. getting a WR in FA. It wasn't the best crop of WRs in the draft or in FA last year. I like BB's strategy of course but that doesn't mean he can't also draft a guy like Ridley high if he thinks his skills would profile well on the Pats. I think here though (re: WR) it is easy to agree to disagree.
RBs though: 1) I don't think Lewis is worth the money long term given his injury history but it doesn't look good so far going into week 2 of 2018 (a grand total of a week), 2) I think they had a good group of backs going into camp, and 3) injuries, like at WR, hit the team hard here. How many teams could withstand injuries to 3 of their top 4 guys easily? You lose a lot of guys to injuries, it's almost impossible to have fantastic depth at every position. I have no problem with how they played out RB and injury luck did not work out.
The 1-5 you describe is fine, but beyond that is the issue. Without Edelman, James Develin set a career high in catches last week. We'll see what happens against Jacksonville's very good cover players. I have little confidence in guys like Allen, Patterson, and Hollister, much less whatever waiver guy they're adding week to week. And again, that's just for 2018 - they have basically nada for 2019 on.
Fair points about the draft, but free agency and trade is expensive, and waiver guys are going to be an even worse hit rate than the draft (since it's a group that teams already gave up on at least once). So there's no ideal way to fill the position. I think the best bet is to throw picks at the position so you have some cheap developmental guys on the roster, but use enough veterans that you don't need to rely on young receivers to contribute.
There's a decent chance that promote Webb depending on Michel's status (and Burkhead's), but there's no rush to do this before Saturday (or whenever the deadline is). He's on the practice squad so they can throw him in with the 1s all week if they want to and then promote him at the 11th hour.
I'll tell you what, it's going to be a whole lot easier for teams to defend Brady and his receiving corps when there is literally no threat of a running game. That's for damned sure.
Lewis signed for 4 years, 23million (if he hits the maximum incentives) with 11million guaranteed. The Pats wouldn't match it, and instead, they turned around and spent a 1st round pick on Michel and gave him a 4 year deal worth 9million at the top end, but 8million is guaranteed. So, they basically saved 3million in guaranteed money over 4 years, and spent a #1 draft pick on a guy who, if he gave them Dion Lewis' production, I'd think they'd be thrilled. If Lewis earns the full max of his deal, great, that means he made the team a whole lot better. If he doesn't, the Pats wouldn't have owed him much more than they owe Michel, and they'd still have that first round pick.
Michel's health history and knee issues were well known before, during and after the draft, so I'm not all that surprised he's hurt now. Burkhead missed the last what, 6 games of the season last year with a knee injury, and Jeremy Hill had ankle surgery and missed the second half of last year as well. This wasn't a group of durable guys to begin with, and my bigger issue is that outside of Michel, I think an argument can be made that they didn't have a single guy on the roster that could play equally well during running plays and passing plays. White and Burkhead are great receiving backs, but they are below average runners. Jeremy Hill is the exact opposite, except he's also not really a good runner either (guy hasn't averaged more than 3.8ypc since his rookie year).
I don't know. I just think this if there is going to be a fatal flaw this season, this is going to be it. We're going to see a whole bunch of games that the Pats can't put away because they can't run out the clock in the fourth quarter, so we're going to be left biting our nails hoping Brady can complete passes for first downs and keep the clock moving and if that receiving corps starts getting hurt, the whole thing comes apart at the seems. I truly believe that in very short order, Dion Lewis is going to look like a bargain under his current contract. We have James White, Kenjon Barner and maybe Ralph Webb. Even if you added one of the other guys, Burkhead or Hill, it still doesn't look very good. They put a lot of ducks in the Sony Michel pot, and as of now, it looks like it could turn out to be a huge, huge mistake.
When have they ever had any depth after 1-5? Shit, they've had seasons where guys like Reche Caldwell were at the top of the receiving corps. That's what I mean when I say #12 will find a way. For example, take a look at 2014, their top 5 receivers in order by receptions were Edelman, Gronk, Lafell, Vereen and Amendola. Amendola had 27 receptions. The next guy was Tim Wright with 26 receptions. After that, not a single guy on the roster had more than 6 catches (a tie between Develin and Kembrell Thompkins). And they won the Super Bowl. I think Edelman missed a few games with injury, but they stayed pretty healthy as a group.
If that team had suffered injuries, then sure, they probably struggle, and so will this year's team, just like the 2013 team did when Gronk and Amendola both got hurt at points (they still made the conference championship, of course), and guys like Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Thompkins were asked to step up as the 6th and 7th guys. In 2011 when they lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl, the guy with the 5th most receptions that year was Woodhead with 18. The next guy on the roster was BJGE with 9 receptions.
My point is just that the Pats basically never go into a season with more than 5 legit weapons for Brady to throw to. And if they do get hit with injuries, and have to use a 6th or 7th guy, it's never anyone good, but somehow Brady finds a way to make it work and win games. That's why I just don't see a difference going into this season with the receiving corps as I have in other seasons. It's about the same as it always is. Gronk, Edelman, Hogan, White and Dorsett is as comparable a 1-5 as any other they've had. After that, I don't see much difference between Patterson/Hollister, etc. and guys like Dobson/Thompkins/Boyce/Tiquan Underwood/Dwayne Allen, etc.
I don’t think the Patriots of the last many years have ever been built in such a way that running back depth could even be a fatal flaw. There are guys to be found out there and if the line blocks well it shouldn’t really matter who the back is as long as he holds on to the ball and can pick up his blocks.
Of course, that is why I hated the Michel pick but I digress.
Of course, that is why I hated the Michel pick but I digress.
Yeah, between them they missed two games (Gronk also sat out Week 17). If we can get that in 2018, sign me up. But we weren't so fortunate with receiver injury luck in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, or 2017. Fortunately there was good depth in 2016 and 2017 which which let them weather the storm for the most part. That's not here this year.
And the other difference is 2019-on; they cannot even field a WR corps next year at this point, unless you are a lot higher on Darren Andrews and Cody Hollister than I am.
Sure, Burkhead, Hill, and Michel have injury histories - just as Edelman, Gronkowski, and Hogan do. And adding Dion Lewis wouldn't do much to lessen injury concerns with the RBs given his extensive past.
As for the bolded ... they have basically never had this, other than Lewis last year and the couple parts of the other seasons he played. Probably the next closest thing to an all-around back is Burkhead, or maybe the first couple years of Laurence Maroney. They are primarily a passing team and have been fine with specialized backs, and they've won plenty of games with unheralded backs or when they couldn't run the ball at all (the Divisional and Super Bowl in 2014, for instance). Lewis brought another dimension and I'm hoping Michel does too, but the passing game is the offense's bread and butter.
And while I generally think the complexity of the NE offense is overblown, I don't think there's any question that a running back's assignments are more straightforward than a WR's if he's not playing on passing downs. I have a lot more confidence that they can find a Blount type on waivers or the trade market and plug him in than I do they can find a useful wideout.
Almost to the day, it's been 4 years since the Colts cut Dion Lewis (Sept 16, 2014) - and that's after the Browns cut him in August. I forget the circumstances on the team in the meantime, but the Pats didn't then sign Lewis until New Year's Eve of that season. The point being that it's way too early to think they've settled on their RB situation. And there should be options out there if a team is willing to part with a 5th or 4th rounder. I'd expect a lot of churn and visits to Foxboro though for any RB's with a pulse to avoid giving up the draft pick.
True although, like Coleman, Lewis was brought on board as a future play. Absent an atypical Blount/Pit situation, I think any late season RB help is going to be more of the Steven Jackson types. Early down work should be ok if Michel/Burkhead are healthy. If White goes down, we’ll be in a world of hurt or ifeither Michel or Burkhead isn’t standing at year end, which is quite possible. That Hill injury really does suck.
You're right on Lewis as future play. The silver lining on Hill is that it happened in the first game, so there's plenty of time for a fix.