2018 NFCCG: Eagles v. Vikings
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
Vegas is looking for a number that allows for the most likely even betting. They’re not calling the point differential in the game.
That's not really true. Because Vegas would get hammered by sharps if they did that. Which wouldn't lead to even betting.
Vegas usually takes a side nowadays. They don't just try to balance out the bets.
And everyone says this, yet no one finds a way to consistently beat Vegas. If Vegas were not trying to predict point differential, people would beat them over and over again. Nobody does. Vegas spreads are accurate predictors of point differential
Shouldn’t take the Minny beat writers long to write “We got killed.” and beat it the hell outta there.
It would be nice if I could say that this is just sensationalist media crap, but, alas, I cannot.This is just today:
I love my Eagles and am proud they are in the Super Bowl. Can’t say the same for the fan base, which I feel completely alienated from. (I guess that makes sense, since I haven’t been to an Eagles game in Philly since 1982.)
Anyway, yesterday was tremendous fun all around. Well, except for stories like these ...
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I understand how certain games always favor the house, but how do point spreads favor the house? What advantage does Vegas gain by setting the line at a certain point? Is there some psychology involved where the know what bettors will likely do and they set it accordingly? How does it really WORK?
When I read someone describing someone else as being ‘very [basic skill/quality]’ that it would be more accurate if they said ‘barely’ instead.
I think that they do try to balance the money, but baked into that is a judgment of how pro gamblers are going to judge the teams. So Vegas setting a line is more an acknowledgment of experts’ predictions on the game’s outcome (and hence, how the money will be bet) than a prediction of the game itself.
Vegas wants 50/50 betting because it guarantees them a net gain of all of their fees. So the line moves to either respond to heavy betting on one side (which exposes Vegas to loss) or to predict future heavy betting on one side (say, due to a team’s injury).
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This post is nonsense. It's not true that Vegas tries to balance out the bets, because then people would bet, and it wouldn't lead to even betting?
Vegas balancing out the bets is why nobody can beat them consistently. They use high information to set good initial lines, and use wisdom of the crowd and market forces to balance it out if they need any corrections. Your post is basically the opposite of what's really going on: Vegas balances the line by whatever means necessary, which is obviously true, or else they would have gone out of business already.
Vegas are the sharps, as far as any sharps even exist. If they weren't, someone else would be Vegas!
I know people get lost in the tautology of it all but one of the major reasons that "spreads are accurate predictors of point differential" (which I think you would have to provide evidence to show, if it's even true) is that they do try to balance the money. They are high-info to begin with, out-experience everyone else, and then get free information from everyone else who is placing bets with them. The fact that it's closer to even betting is an indicator of how good their line is.
Exactly. Vegas doesn't "pick a side", they read the betting market and set a line to get even betting on both sides.
Practically speaking, that means a lot of people, including people who wager huge sums, think the Patriots are probably going to win. It likely also reflects how Vegas thinks the weight of casual bettors will fall, and that might be based on the Pats' reputation or other irrational factors.
Practically speaking, that means a lot of people, including people who wager huge sums, think the Patriots are probably going to win. It likely also reflects how Vegas thinks the weight of casual bettors will fall, and that might be based on the Pats' reputation or other irrational factors.
Leather:
Maybe you can circulate this video around the Twinnies, cheer up some sad Vikings fans:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/watch-happy-eagles-fan-get-leveled-subway-pole-041152298.html
Maybe you can circulate this video around the Twinnies, cheer up some sad Vikings fans:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/watch-happy-eagles-fan-get-leveled-subway-pole-041152298.html
That's one lucky dude, the way he bounced off the train. Would have been a goner had a fallen down between the train and the platform. Not enough space there, but still...
I’ve always been careful being an out of town fan in Philly. I usually get ribbed if I’m wearing gear, but as long as you roll with it doesn’t usually escalate. I went to Eagles/Pats at the Linc in 2011 and had no issues, but when the Pats went up 38-13, a guy took off his jacket to display his Aikman jersey and started jawing with his whole section like a wrestling heel and had to be saved by security.
His hand/arm could easily have gone in the gap..which would have pulled him in.
There’s a law and order episode I believe where Vincent D’Onofrio gets pinned between the train and the platform.. it didn’t end well.
Ah yes. Have all seasons of that show on dvd. Was it a crossover episode that they did in NYC?
No it took place in Baltimore. D'Onofrio wasn't playing his character from Law and Order.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subway_(Homicide:_Life_on_the_Street)
Thanks. I spent a lot of time in Baltimore and never rode the subway down there. I know D'Onofrio wasn't playing his character, but there were a number of Law and Order characters that appeared on the Homicide over the years. Anyway, end of thread hijack.
Happy for that guy that he didn't die.