In Toronto too - no Kawhi (load management!) - but still impressive for the Magic.
Mudiay with 17 quick points on 7-9 shooting off the bench in 10 min as the Knicks go up double digits on the Spurs at home. SA enters the game with an 11-20 record on the road in this first leg of a B2B with the NY teams.
The Knicks somehow only have two turnovers halfway through the third, that doesn't seem possible with their roster.
Also as a long-suffering Knicks fan, Mitchell Robinson is exciting. Smith and Knox also show signs and are super young, but Robinson is already leading the league in BLK/48 by a lot (5.79, Myles Turner is next at 4.66). Hopefully NY can keep DeAndre around for another year to keep teaching him because wow is he gifted. Robinson dunks again as I click 'post'...
Also as a long-suffering Knicks fan, Mitchell Robinson is exciting. Smith and Knox also show signs and are super young, but Robinson is already leading the league in BLK/48 by a lot (5.79, Myles Turner is next at 4.66). Hopefully NY can keep DeAndre around for another year to keep teaching him because wow is he gifted. Robinson dunks again as I click 'post'...
I was curious so I researched quick and was surprised to find that there are only 7 teams in the NBA this year with fewer turnovers than the Knicks.
Another find is Mudiay who has finally seemed to find his niche in a Microwave/Lou Williams-type role off the bench rather than trying to force him to play out of position as a pure 1.
Actually, there's some other guy who is leading the league in blocks/48 at 7.7. Wonder who that can be . . . ?
KO plays 41 minutes, goes 11-17 and 4-6 from 3P. 28 points 10 rebounds. Too bad in a losing cause. Against PHO, who breaks their 17 game losing streak.
Except he doesn't qualify and Robinson does.Actually, there's some other guy who is leading the league in blocks/48 at 7.7. Wonder who that can be . . . ?
Trae Young is having himself quite a month.
Trae Young...woah. 8-12 from deep with 36 points and seven assists. The last two months, not including tonight's light show, he has been shooting ~ 36.5% from deep. Maybe Travis Schlenk isn't feeling as bad as I thought.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are going to win this game. It just feels like it.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are going to win this game. It just feels like it.
Memphis
1) doesn’t change their spot much
2) helps Clippers playoff chances
3) Fuck LA
4) Fuck Lebron
5) 3 & 4
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Joakim Noah is...unwashed? 14 points on 5-8 shooting and 14 boards.
So does Luke Walton take the late bus tonight too?
So does Luke Walton take the late bus tonight too?
Montrezl Harrell, 12 minutes, seven dunks, four assists, two blocks. Incredibly springiness taking the ball to the rim.
EDIT: The undermanned Clippers are fun to watch. They play hard and play to whatever strengths remain on this stripped down roster - pick/rolls with Harrell and either LouWill or Gallo.
EDIT: The undermanned Clippers are fun to watch. They play hard and play to whatever strengths remain on this stripped down roster - pick/rolls with Harrell and either LouWill or Gallo.
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KAT in a serious car accident when his SUV was hit by a semi. He was a passenger when the car in which he was riding had to stop on a highway for an accident, and a semi rammed the back of his vehicle. This could have been devastating for Minnesota, which previously lost Malik Sealy when he was killed by a drunk driver. Kat is coming out of concussion protocol and will play in their next game.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26077573/timberwolves-karl-anthony-towns-lucky-alive-accident
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26077573/timberwolves-karl-anthony-towns-lucky-alive-accident
Played tonight and dropped 34 (13-18 fg), 21, and 5. Born again hard? Wolves are now in a dead heat with the Lakers at 29-31, with a much better net rating. If KAT is playing like the beast he can be, they may have as good a shot at the #7 or 8 seed as anyone.
Harrell is having a very good below the radar season and is having a great game tonight. His defense has seen the biggest bump this year. Him, Lou Will and Gallinari make the Clippers a stealth star destination this offseason. Kawhi would fit nicely here but Durant works too.
Edit: Career high for Montrezl with 32 points
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Here are all of the players in NBA history aged 20 or younger who have scored 36 points, hit 8 threes and had 8 assists in a game:
Trae Young
And I know that's some Eric Van-level statistical cherry-picking, but Trae might be the most exciting individual Hawk since Nique - his ceiling is a better-passing Steph Curry, and as unlikely as it is that he'll reach those heights, it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that Trae plus the Mavs' first-rounder this year yield more combined long-term value than Doncic, even if Doncic himself proves to be the best single player from the 2018 draft.
Oh, and surely it's a good thing that the Hawks stopped Harden's 30-point scoring streak last night (with plenty of help from Harden himself) - not least the Rockets themselves, as maybe they can now move to a more organic offensive structure.
Obligatory: "greatest shooter ever" is not a realistic ceiling for someone shooting a modest 32.9% from 3 and 80.9% from the line (36.0% and 86.1% in college, respectively).
"Worse-shooting, better-passing Curry" — sure, though Steph's a bit bigger, with better rebounding and steal numbers at a similar age (in college, but boards and steal numbers tend not to fluctuate much over the course of a young player's development).
That said, Young looks amazing for a guy as young as he is (not even 20.5), and has already silenced a ton of doubters. I'll fess up to being one of the loudmouth fans who castigated both ATL and SAC way too earlier for passing on Doncic; the way both Young and Bagley have looked over the last couple months, and as young as they are, I doubt either Travis Schlenk or Vlade Divac is kicking himself too hard these days. I'd still probably take Doncic over either, but I don't think it's nearly the slam dunk it seemed a few months ago. And as you allude to, we need to give all these guys time, as the re-draft rankings have a way of changing over the years (Blake Griffin seemed like the better pro than Harden or Curry for several seasons; Tyreke Evans, Michael Carter-Williams, and Andrew Wiggins were rookies of the year over Curry, Giannis, and Jokic, e.g.)
In any case, "[Fill in the blank] Curry" is a totally unfair burden for young Young or anyone else, since Curry in my humble and of course totally objective opinion has a top 5 all-time player ceiling if he's fortunate enough to stay healthy over the next 6-7 years, and age along same lines as his twin touchstones Steve Nash and Ray Allen. You can be a totally amazing player and still not quite have Hoops Mt. Rushmore as your ceiling.
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I don't think anyone expects Young to be as good as Curry, but it's impossible to watch those highlights from last night and not see the obvious comparisons. Young's finishing around the basket has been really impressive as well; like Curry the threat of the three point shot allows him to get around defenders and his floater game is really top-notch.
When Curry was Young's age he was playing in relative obscurity at Davidson while not convincing everyone that he would translate into a starting PG at the next level. Young's ballhandling and quickness at the same age far exceeds Curry's when he was a senior in college. Of course their growth from 20 to prime of 27-28 will likely be different there is a pretty high ceiling for Young especially with the leap he's taken during his first season alone.
Steph was never a senior in college (came out after his junior year, right after his 21st bday); and even if we subtract his junior (age 20) season, I don't think his college career was any more obscure than Young's, except to the extent that social media had advanced a bit in the nine years between them. They were pretty similarly heralded heading into the draft, with Young's biggest advantage as a prospect being that Steph had set a template for what Young could be, whereas in '09 there was no real precedent for Steph.
Generally agreed that Young's ballhandling and passing are more advanced than Steph's at a similar age, whereas Steph's shooting was superior. I've heard some people say Nash is actually a better comp for Young than Curry. But as you suggest, it's impossible to predict how Young will develop from age 20-27; and heck, if we're using Nash as a comp, there's even potential for a "second growth" from age 27-34. Rookie seasons only tell us so much; I remember being crushed in '09 when rookie Brandon Jennings dropped 55 points on the Warriors on my birthday, and it seemed painfully obvious to me that the Ws had blown yet another draft pick.
The Nash comparison is interesting because I think if he hit his prime today he would be encouraged to shoot a lot more then he did since we are in the era of primary ballhandlers also being the guys who take the most shots during a game. What set Nash apart was his vision and unselfish playmaking; but I feel like in 2019 that asset would be stunted in favor of encouraging a great shooter to be more aggressive scoring the ball.
If he could stay on the court. He's averaging 1.9 fouls a game in 10 minutes.
Since the beginning of February
Markkanen 9 games .491/.375/.929, 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists in 36.4 minutes per game. Bulls are 4-5 over that stretch.
His numbers for his age 21 season so far
.443/.383/.877, 19.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 32.7 mpg Rebound rate 15.1%, Assist rate 7.0%, Steal rate 1.2%, Block rate 1.8%, TO rate 8.2%, Usage 24.9%
Dirks' age 21 season
.461/.379/.830, 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 35.8mpg Rebound rate 9.7%, Assist rate 10.9%, Steal rate 1.1%, Block rate 1.6%, TO rate 10.0%, Usage 21.2%.
The following year, Dirk's rebound rate climbed to 13.5% and he's at 12.7% for his career. Kinda interesting.
Trae Young's First 26 games: 29.3mpg, .373/.243/.781, 154 points, 7.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 4.0 Turnovers.
Trae Young's last 35 games: 31.2 mpg, .437/.388/.826, 19.1 points, 8.0 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 3.8 Turnovers.
He had a terrible November but has been really good otherwise. People would be paying much more attention to him if it wasn't for such a brutal month that he's still digging his way out of. Kinda like Westbrook. I was pretty harsh on Young earlier in the year but he's grown on me and I consider him a serious piece to put next to John Collins, the real steal of the 2017 draft. He's a very unique player and you can't help but love his shot chart. 54.2% from within 3, 73.3% from within 10. 18.9% from 3+. Only 7.8% of his shots are between 10-3pt. On offense, he's like Clint Capela with a 3 point shot. Usually the guy who is getting offensive rebounds, put backs, tip ins etc doesn't have a 3 point shot to go with it. How often does a player shoot over 60% from 2 while shooting 37%+ from 3? Guessing not very. That's a nice duo, and they are in line to land the 5th and 8th pick in the upcoming draft. Huerter looks pretty good himself and Prince could probably be traded for an asset.
And for all the talk that Brandon Ingram can't shoot the 3, the last 2 years:
Jaylen Brown .395 and .327 on 4.4 and 3.7 attempts per game. 121/306 last year, 67/205 this year. That's a combined .368.
Brandon Ingram .390 and .322 on 1.8 and 1.8 attempts per game. 41/105 last year, 28/87 this year. That's a combined .360.
Brown is a .663 FT shooter after 502 attempts, Ingram is a .661 FT shooter after 766 attempts. Brown has a career FG% of .458, Ingram .455.
511 attempts compared to 192 attempts in ~2 years is obviously a huge difference but the success rate has been basically the same.
Overall this year
Ingram .490/.322/.670, 17.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks in 33.5 minutes per. TS% of 54.9% ORtg 106.6, DRtg 107.3
Brown .453/.327/.676, 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks in 25.9 minutes per. TS% of 53.4%. ORtg 106.6 Drtg 103.8.
Seems like the real difference between the 2 is defense.
Markkanen 9 games .491/.375/.929, 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists in 36.4 minutes per game. Bulls are 4-5 over that stretch.
His numbers for his age 21 season so far
.443/.383/.877, 19.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 32.7 mpg Rebound rate 15.1%, Assist rate 7.0%, Steal rate 1.2%, Block rate 1.8%, TO rate 8.2%, Usage 24.9%
Dirks' age 21 season
.461/.379/.830, 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 35.8mpg Rebound rate 9.7%, Assist rate 10.9%, Steal rate 1.1%, Block rate 1.6%, TO rate 10.0%, Usage 21.2%.
The following year, Dirk's rebound rate climbed to 13.5% and he's at 12.7% for his career. Kinda interesting.
Trae Young's First 26 games: 29.3mpg, .373/.243/.781, 154 points, 7.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 4.0 Turnovers.
Trae Young's last 35 games: 31.2 mpg, .437/.388/.826, 19.1 points, 8.0 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 3.8 Turnovers.
He had a terrible November but has been really good otherwise. People would be paying much more attention to him if it wasn't for such a brutal month that he's still digging his way out of. Kinda like Westbrook. I was pretty harsh on Young earlier in the year but he's grown on me and I consider him a serious piece to put next to John Collins, the real steal of the 2017 draft. He's a very unique player and you can't help but love his shot chart. 54.2% from within 3, 73.3% from within 10. 18.9% from 3+. Only 7.8% of his shots are between 10-3pt. On offense, he's like Clint Capela with a 3 point shot. Usually the guy who is getting offensive rebounds, put backs, tip ins etc doesn't have a 3 point shot to go with it. How often does a player shoot over 60% from 2 while shooting 37%+ from 3? Guessing not very. That's a nice duo, and they are in line to land the 5th and 8th pick in the upcoming draft. Huerter looks pretty good himself and Prince could probably be traded for an asset.
And for all the talk that Brandon Ingram can't shoot the 3, the last 2 years:
Jaylen Brown .395 and .327 on 4.4 and 3.7 attempts per game. 121/306 last year, 67/205 this year. That's a combined .368.
Brandon Ingram .390 and .322 on 1.8 and 1.8 attempts per game. 41/105 last year, 28/87 this year. That's a combined .360.
Brown is a .663 FT shooter after 502 attempts, Ingram is a .661 FT shooter after 766 attempts. Brown has a career FG% of .458, Ingram .455.
511 attempts compared to 192 attempts in ~2 years is obviously a huge difference but the success rate has been basically the same.
Overall this year
Ingram .490/.322/.670, 17.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks in 33.5 minutes per. TS% of 54.9% ORtg 106.6, DRtg 107.3
Brown .453/.327/.676, 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks in 25.9 minutes per. TS% of 53.4%. ORtg 106.6 Drtg 103.8.
Seems like the real difference between the 2 is defense.
I was referring to Curry’s final year when he only hit the national spotlight until the post-season as Davidson was never featured in prime time ESPN games. Compare that to Young who played what seemed like every game on ESPN while leading off SC many times that winter and it cannot be possible to say each player was equally obscure in college with a straight face.
One thing for certain is that people tend to label lead guards way way way too early as most don’t hit their prime until the age 27-30 range whether it be due to physical maturity, mental maturity, simply finding the right situation/coach.....or some combination of all three.
I'm with you on the The Finnish Product; his rebounding has been a real sign of improvement; it's not easy for a big man who spends most of his time on the perimeter to average 9 rpg.
I also kind of dig the young Hawks; I knew Collins was going to love playing with Young. Chicago and Atlanta are feisty.
I really like Collins' game as well (IIRC DotB is a big fan). With Young making impressive strides I agree that CP and Hawks fans should be bullish. Atlanta kind of has the feel of a Kings-like track.
In short, they have a few emerging stars along side some solid rotational guys. Pierce seems to be bringing their young talent along nicely too.
In short, they have a few emerging stars along side some solid rotational guys. Pierce seems to be bringing their young talent along nicely too.
Your post is very well done, thanks. The numbers comparison on Brown and Ingram in particular.
Regarding the quoted, you know that conclusion already if you watched both guys play.
But the question is whether you see one or both improving over the next few years. Do you see Brown getting to the line like he should? Will Ingram ever get serious on defense? I think that much of the speculation is based on where people think that these guys are going, not necessarily just what they have been.
Much of the "Ingram sucks" is wishcasting certainly.
I mean, he does suck. But he's also 21 and has a ton of potential to get better and I think he will. If he's essentially the same player next year, I'll be worried. At that point, he starts looking like Andrew Wiggins. I think the age 22 and 23 off seasons are huge and judging players before that time is often like throwing darts blindfolded.
Agreed that the projections get easier at that point.
The reason why I like Brown better than Ingram is that the former puts on effort on defense and has results to show for it. Ingram clearly has a higher offensive ceiling. So the evaluation on guys their age involves a ton of guesswork on likelihood of reaching their respective ceilings. But it also hinges on how much you value defense.
Hell, Trae's disastrous start to Summer League got the ball rolling in this regard: his first impressions were horrific. And then that rolled into November, and *everyone* was dunking on Young (and dunking even more on Schlenk). But here he is now, getting stronger and not weaker as the season rolls along - which seems the opposite of what everyone was expecting from a kid so young and so small after playing 50-60 games for the first time against elite competition. Maybe he won't mature into a stud, but for me it's enough at this point that he and the rest of the young core around him have people outside of Atlanta talking fondly about the Hawks' potential. And if they get lucky in the lottery this year...
I like Brown more because of his build and his effort on the defensive ends. Even with effort on the defensive end, Ingram really needs to bulk up. The one thing I like about Ingram more is his passing ability. Unless Brown improves in that area, I think it severely limits his ceiling. Sadly, I think Jeff Green works as a comp for both players. Ingram is a Jeff Green with play making abilities and Jaylen Brown is Jeff Green who plays defense. Jeff Green is also probably a better player than we give him credit for, but no one really wants Jeff Green. He's been in the NBA for 12 (or 13, 1 missed season) years and has been a starter for most of them. I doubt anyone considers him a bust with the 5th pick.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenje02.html
Hopefully for us, Ingram is the next Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown lives up to the Jimmy Butler comparison.
To go a little more into it, Jaylen Brown has been playing significantly better since the start of the season, but Ingram has too.
Brown's first 19 games: .398/.253/.622 11.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks in 28.1 mpg
Last 36 games: .482/.369/.700 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks in 24.7 mpg. Better shooting and better counting numbers across the board except blocks and that is with 10-15% less playing time. Very encouraging.
Ingram's first 18 games: .464/.303/.642 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks in 32.3 mpg.
Last 31 games: .505/.333/.683 18.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks in 34.2 mpg.
Kinda weird seeing Ingram close to .500 shooting for the year. He really doesn't attempt many 3's at all though. His rookie year he was at 44.3% on 2FG, last year 48.3%. So far this year, 51.5%.
Brown's first 19 games: .398/.253/.622 11.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks in 28.1 mpg
Last 36 games: .482/.369/.700 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks in 24.7 mpg. Better shooting and better counting numbers across the board except blocks and that is with 10-15% less playing time. Very encouraging.
Ingram's first 18 games: .464/.303/.642 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks in 32.3 mpg.
Last 31 games: .505/.333/.683 18.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks in 34.2 mpg.
Kinda weird seeing Ingram close to .500 shooting for the year. He really doesn't attempt many 3's at all though. His rookie year he was at 44.3% on 2FG, last year 48.3%. So far this year, 51.5%.
I really like the raw skills that this kid has. He has a ton to learn but if his head is focused on being the best player he can be the sky is the limit for Mitchell Robinson. It's easy to forget that he was one of the top players of his HS class and not some athletic freak flyer.....this kid could always play.
MitchRob: 32 minutes, 17 pts (6-9 fg, 5-6 ft), 14 reb, 3 stl, 6 blk, 0 tov, +5 in 5-point Knicks win.
How did he slip to #36 again?
How did he slip to #36 again?
Replay is so freakin dumb in this league. Refs go to the tape to see if IT was tripped before the ball was inbounded (thus triggering free throws and the ball or whatever the rule is). They confirm that the ball was out of the passer's hands. Great, right? Except that they can't do anything about the fact that it's clear as day on replay that IT tripped over his own teammate and the defender was nowhere near him. Dumb.
Maturity and decision making questions for one. He choose Western Kentucky as a 5-star recruit which is bizarre decision #1, he is on campus attending classes in the summer then leaves school in the fall to transfer prior to practice beginning which is bizarre decision #2. Then he hired representation who shut down his workouts out of the gate leading speculation that he had a 1st round promise.....until the 1st round came and went without his name being called. Someday I hope we find out exactly what happened or why his people didn't allow him to workout for anyone pre-draft.