2018 MLB Draft Uber-Thread

nvalvo

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Honest question - how much of the scouting staff is still left from the FOs that drafted those guys though?
Honest answer - beats me. Probably more organizational memory remains from the Basabe era than the Reddick era.

But just as honestly, if you add the injured Westmoreland and Kalish to the guys I mentioned and our current home grown outfield, the track record is pretty astonishing. You could even go back to Ellsbury, Murphy, and Moss. That's an awfully high hit rate: something like 8 ML-caliber OF, plus two more who would have been without tragic career ending injuries, plus Basabe — who looks very promising, but on whom the jury is still out — over the 16 years since 2002.

It's not as though there weren't high-profile misses to go along with the success: Matt Murton never amounted to much with the Cubs, nor Reymond Fuentes, nor Jason Place. Bryce Brentz, more recently. All were first rounders who didn't pan out. Still, we're turning draft capital and signing bonuses into major league outfield talent at a remarkable clip, and it's not just a product of a few outliers.

I posted above about the Giants' drought of homegrown All Star outfielders since Chili Davis in the early 80s. The Sox over the span discussed above have drafted and developed All Star outfielders in Moss, Ellsbury, Betts, and Bradley just since 2002. That's a lot.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Honest answer - beats me. Probably more organizational memory remains from the Basabe era than the Reddick era.

But just as honestly, if you add the injured Westmoreland and Kalish to the guys I mentioned and our current home grown outfield, the track record is pretty astonishing. You could even go back to Ellsbury, Murphy, and Moss. That's an awfully high hit rate: something like 8 ML-caliber OF, plus two more who would have been without tragic career ending injuries, plus Basabe — who looks very promising, but on whom the jury is still out — over the 16 years since 2002.

It's not as though there weren't high-profile misses to go along with the success: Matt Murton never amounted to much with the Cubs, nor Reymond Fuentes, nor Jason Place. Bryce Brentz, more recently. All were first rounders who didn't pan out. Still, we're turning draft capital and signing bonuses into major league outfield talent at a remarkable clip, and it's not just a product of a few outliers.

I posted above about the Giants' drought of homegrown All Star outfielders since Chili Davis in the early 80s. The Sox over the span discussed above have drafted and developed All Star outfielders in Moss, Ellsbury, Betts, and Bradley just since 2002. That's a lot.
Not disputing their hit rate, it’s been above average, but what you spoke to in your original post - that they targeted athletic CF types - doesn’t really jive with what you’re following up with, to start.

The Moss, Place, Brentz subset were power corner guys and drafted as such. Betts was drafted as a 2B. (I while I understand it’s accurate, I find citing Bradley and Amos’s as All Stars to be a bit disingenuous, but that’s a tangent).

That’s all kind of beside the point and kind of not - under Theo and his extension into BC’s tenure, it was a stated and noted strategy to focus on up the middle players, as they could fall back on moving to a corner position if they didn’t hit their ceiling; further that those positions were most valuable and hardest to find for impact.

Not only has the entire front office changed, but their philosophies went with them and even on top of that, the game has changed. It’s a nice peg to hang their hat on but I’m not sure it means much at this point. It was a pretty clean break with the previous regime and I don’t find it particularly instructive I guess, much like citing the Giants and OFs.

Pointing to franchises and specific positions, or even subsets like OF, strikes me as cherry picking coincidences, with the longer you stretch it out, the thinner the case gets. Giants fans may bemoan not developing an OF since Davis strikes me as odd, since there’s been how many GM and ownership changes since then? It’s like saying ‘the Twins always lay down for the Yankees’ or ‘the Sox always have trouble with the Orioles’ or whatever; it’s static. I guess I only find it useful when there’s continuity, so unless Henry is the one driving the train, I’m not seeing its relevance. All I meant.
 

nvalvo

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Not disputing their hit rate, it’s been above average, but what you spoke to in your original post - that they targeted athletic CF types - doesn’t really jive with what you’re following up with, to start.

The Moss, Place, Brentz subset were power corner guys and drafted as such. Betts was drafted as a 2B. (I while I understand it’s accurate, I find citing Bradley and Amos’s as All Stars to be a bit disingenuous, but that’s a tangent).

That’s all kind of beside the point and kind of not - under Theo and his extension into BC’s tenure, it was a stated and noted strategy to focus on up the middle players, as they could fall back on moving to a corner position if they didn’t hit their ceiling; further that those positions were most valuable and hardest to find for impact.

Not only has the entire front office changed, but their philosophies went with them and even on top of that, the game has changed. It’s a nice peg to hang their hat on but I’m not sure it means much at this point. It was a pretty clean break with the previous regime and I don’t find it particularly instructive I guess, much like citing the Giants and OFs.

Pointing to franchises and specific positions, or even subsets like OF, strikes me as cherry picking coincidences, with the longer you stretch it out, the thinner the case gets. Giants fans may bemoan not developing an OF since Davis strikes me as odd, since there’s been how many GM and ownership changes since then? It’s like saying ‘the Twins always lay down for the Yankees’ or ‘the Sox always have trouble with the Orioles’ or whatever; it’s static. I guess I only find it useful when there’s continuity, so unless Henry is the one driving the train, I’m not seeing its relevance. All I meant.
It could be. These are small samples, so a handful of hits or misses can skew your whole picture. I see that. And part of this is certainly a perspective shaped by the immediate aftermath of the Ball and Benintendi picks: major failure on the pitcher, major hit on an athletic CF type.

But the overall draft hit rate is so low that this still seems high enough to register as more. Similarly, the Giants OF woes (which may well end with Gorkys!) seem like a pretty eyebrow raising outlier. I didn't take the Sox all the way back to 1981, because I was not sufficiently familiar with their drafts, and it was more an impressionistic game-thready remark in a Draft thread than a research project.

But the Red Sox set of draftees or international signees, among active players (can't lay my hands on the link for this one: it was a piece on Fangraphs), have produced the most WAR. That link is draft performance since 1953, and it isn't even all that close. That gives us credit for guys we trade or release, too: so Lester's WAR with the A's or Cubs counts for us, as does Clemens' WAR with the Jays, 'Stros, and Yanks.

Betts was drafted as a SS, FWIW, and they've also been successful at producing IF and to some extent C over this span. So it may be that what we're looking at is a recent pitching deficit more than an OF strength.
 

nayrbrey

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Day 3 picks so far

Rnd 11/340 Nick Northcut 3B William Mason HS. Ranked 81st in MLB.com. Could this be where extra slot money is used? Committed to Vanderbilt


Rnd 12/370 Chase Shugart RHP Texas
Rnd 13/400 Dylan Hardy OF U South Alabama

Edit- had Northcut as P not 3B
 
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nayrbrey

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Write up on Northcut from Perfectgame.org

https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=373923

Latest Showcase Report

2017 National Showcase Jun 16, 2017

PG Grade: 10

Nicholas Northcut is a 2018 3B/RHP with a 6-0 198 lb. frame from Mason, OH who attends William Mason HS. Strong athletic build, pretty mature physically, has firmed up his body over the years and improved his athleticism.. Right handed hitter, hits from a wide base with good balance and direction into contact, very strong swing with outstanding bat speed, has barrel whip, big lift and ability to drive the ball, made Fenway South look small with his raw power, can make game adjustments and drive the ball to all fields, advanced hitter. 7.25 runner, solid third base actions, feet work well laterally, big arm strength across the diamond. Two-way prospect on the mound, quick and compact arm action, works from the stretch, fastball to 91 mph with good life down in the zone. Tight slider with ability to manipulate the shape and velocity. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt. Selected for the 2017 Perfect Game All-American Classic.
 

AusTexSoxFan

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I love Shugart. Have seen a lot of him down here at UT. Was at Sunday's game against Indiana when he came out of the bully to strike out the last two hitters. Kid is tough. I would think he'll start one of the super regional games against Tenn Tech.
 

ehaz

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Hopefully this is a pre-arranged deal the FO was able to work out over the last few days. Probably will command most of the leftover pool money from going under rounds 4-10.

Interesting that they’re going with another power prep bat. I wonder how much of this draft strategy was based on analytics - a good chunk of the exit velocity crowd was really into Casas if I remember correctly.
 

ehaz

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No team’s drafted Luke Heimlich so far? Most reporters think he’ll be picked. How long before the MFY team him up with Aroldis in the bullpen?
 

Byrdbrain

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Per Ian at SoxProspects the Sox have taken only 2 SPs out of their first 18 picks in the draft, and 7 pitchers overall.
There has been talk about the inability to develop starting pitchers around here and it looks like this year they have essentially punted on the position.
 

TimScribble

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All from MLB draft tracker on twitter:

11 (340): @redsox select William Mason HS (OH) RHP Nicholas Northcut. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

12 (370): @redsox select Texas (TX) RHP Chase Shugart. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

13 (400): @redsox select University of South Alabama (AL) OF Dylan Hardy. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDrafM

14 (430): @redsox select Cocalico HS 2B Nicholas Lucky. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

15 (460): @redsox select Seton Hall (NJ) RHP Andrew Politi. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

16 (490): @redsox select Kentucky (KY) RHP Christopher Machamer. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

17 (520): @redsox select Oklahoma City U C Lane Milligan. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

18 (550): @redsox select Southeastern U RHR Eddie Jimenez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

19 (580): @redsox select Texas St U 2B Jonathan Ortega. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

20 (610): @redsox select Liberty Christian School (TX) OF Kason Howell. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft
 

DanoooME

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But the overall draft hit rate is so low that this still seems high enough to register as more. Similarly, the Giants OF woes (which may well end with Gorkys!) seem like a pretty eyebrow raising outlier. I didn't take the Sox all the way back to 1981, because I was not sufficiently familiar with their drafts, and it was more an impressionistic game-thready remark in a Draft thread than a research project.
FYI, Gorkys will be 31 in September, was signed by the Tigers in 2006 as an IFA, was traded twice before he made the majors and is on his 6th different team. He's more of a patch job than a real solution.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I don't think Keith Law is all that pessimistic on Casas, despite the comment cited earlier in this thread - here's what he said later in the chat:

Mat Ji: What I have read on Triston Casas indicates that he has an OK approach and a fair amount of raw power but has some holes in his swing. Assuming this is true, is this typically a fairly correctable issue?
Keith Law: That’s not what I’ve seen at all. I think he can really hit, but the power projects to maybe 60, not 70-80.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I don't think Keith Law is all that pessimistic on Casas, despite the comment cited earlier in this thread - here's what he said later in the chat:

Mat Ji: What I have read on Triston Casas indicates that he has an OK approach and a fair amount of raw power but has some holes in his swing. Assuming this is true, is this typically a fairly correctable issue?
Keith Law: That’s not what I’ve seen at all. I think he can really hit, but the power projects to maybe 60, not 70-80.
That's so weird. How does "a fair amount of raw power" translate to "70-80"? 60 seems like exactly what that phrase would imply.
 

TimScribble

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21 (640): @redsox select George Jenkins HS (FL) 3B Brandon Howlett. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

22 (670): @redsox select Miami Dade CC South (FL) RHP Yusniel Padron-Artilles. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

23 (700): @redsox select Hillsborough CC (FL) RHP Ryan Fernandez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

24 (730): @redsox select Florida Southern College (FL) LHP Logan Browning. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

25 (760): @redsox select Heritage HS CF Caleb Ramsey. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

26 (790): @redsox select Fresno St U SS Korby Batesole. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft
 

Rwillh11

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That's so weird. How does "a fair amount of raw power" translate to "70-80"? 60 seems like exactly what that phrase would imply.
I'd take that as primarily responding to the "has some holes in his swing". He is saying that there aren't major holes in the swing - and also the the power is good but not outstanding.
 

moondog80

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At least Heimlich only had sex with a 6 year old. He didn't do anything really bad, like kneel during the anthem. If he had done that, he'd have no chance at a pro career and the President would have told him to leave the country.
And yet another thread has a political element/Trump criticism needlessly shoehorned into it.
 
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strek1

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I can't find any retro data on Devers in the same way as Casas. Are the stats regarding power a recent development? It might be an interesting comparison.
 

Cuzittt

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At least Heimlich only had sex with a 6 year old. He didn't do anything really bad, like kneel during the anthem. If he had done that, he'd have no chance at a pro career and the President would have told him to leave the country.
Crap. I was just making a crappy choking joke.

I forgot all about that issue. So... Yeah, maybe never on the drafting aspect.
 

richgedman'sghost

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@joeDokes why even bring it up? This is just a draft thread. No need for polluting it with politics.
 

TimScribble

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27 (820): @redsox select No School LHS Gregorio Reyes. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

28 (850): @redsox select Corban Col RHS Kris Jackson. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

29 (880): @redsox select Penn Cambria HS (PA) LHP Mason Ronan. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

30 (910): @redsox select Troup County HS (GA) SS Ryan Bliss. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

31 (940): @redsox select U Oklahoma RHR Connor Berry. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

32 (970): @redsox select Miami Beach HS OF Bramdon Perez. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

33 (1000): @redsox select Americas HS CF Adrian Torres. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

34 (1030): @redsox select Cathedral HS (IN) 2B Jared Poland. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

35 (1060): @redsox select Hickory Ridge HS (NC) C Jermiah Boyd. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

36 (1090): @redsox select Lake Oswego HS (OR) 3B Jake Dukart. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft

37 (1120): @redsox select Baylor (TX) SS Davis Wendzel. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

38 (1150): @redsox select Col of the Sequoias LHR Art Joven. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

39 (1180): @redsox select McNeese St U OF Shane Selman. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/dra… #MLBDraft

40 (1210): @redsox select LSU (LA) CF Zach Watson. m.mlb.com/video/topic/26… #MLBDraft
 

soxhop411

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Nick Northcut, Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year, told his father he wanted to be picked in the 2018 MLB draft when he was 9 years old. Though he didn't quite go as high as planned, his 11th-round selection by the Boston Red Sox is appealing enough he will bypass his college commitment to Vanderbilt.
Link
 

deythur

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Nick Northcut, Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year, told his father he wanted to be picked in the 2018 MLB draft when he was 9 years old. Though he didn't quite go as high as planned, his 11th-round selection by the Boston Red Sox is appealing enough he will bypass his college commitment to Vanderbilt.
Link
Great more base running mistakes coming to Fenway.

In all seriousness, how many guys are using wooden bats these days? I don't follow much college ball outside of the World Series. I don't recall seeing anyone using a wooden bat. I always thought it would be a great way to prepare if you were on the MLB path. Cool to see someone actually do it.
 

Byrdbrain

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Many summer leagues use wooden bats, I'd say most of the hitters that have been drafted have some wooden bat experience.
 

burstnbloom

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Nick Northcut, Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year, told his father he wanted to be picked in the 2018 MLB draft when he was 9 years old. Though he didn't quite go as high as planned, his 11th-round selection by the Boston Red Sox is appealing enough he will bypass his college commitment to Vanderbilt.
Link
Wait, they signed Northcut? That's awesome. He was 69 on BA's overall board. He's another guy like Casas and Decker with exceptional exit velocity. 97th percentile according to perfect game. They took a lot of safe college guys in the top 10 but the best reliever in college and 3 top 70 high school power hitters is a risky, but potentially very exciting haul.
 

Drek717

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Wait, they signed Northcut? That's awesome. He was 69 on BA's overall board. He's another guy like Casas and Decker with exceptional exit velocity. 97th percentile according to perfect game. They took a lot of safe college guys in the top 10 but the best reliever in college and 3 top 70 high school power hitters is a risky, but potentially very exciting haul.
I don't know if they've signed him, but the article linked directly quotes him and references the Sox' intent to play him at 3B instead of pitch. It also has this quote from him:

"I played in the Rivalry Classic in the fall," Northcut said. "I got to play in Fenway and Yankee Stadium. In Yankee Stadium I ended up hitting three home runs in one game, which is pretty special. I also got to play in Petco Park for the Perfect Game All-American Game."

So at least he knows where we like to see our guys hit home runs.

I suspect this is a case of the Sox having their entire top 10 already sorted bonus-wise, knew what Northcut needed to sign, and since A+B=C they can safely say he's getting the offer he wants.
 

TimScribble

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First Red Sox draft signing to report: 6th-rounder Devlin Granberg has signed, per source. Dallas Baptist OF is a senior sign. Bonus unknown at the moment.


Red Sox have signed 9th-rounder Brian Brown and 10th-rounder Grant Williams. Both college seniors.
 

Byrdbrain

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Multiple reports on twitter have the Sox singing their first round pick Triston Casas for a slot deal of just over $2.5M.
 

TimScribble

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From https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/06/2018_mlb_draft_boston_red_sox_triston_casas.html

The Red Sox have agreed to terms with first-round pick Triston Casas, a source confirmed to MassLive on Sunday. Casas will receive a bonus of $2,552,800, which is slot value for the No. 26 overall pick, and will be in Boston on Monday to take a physical.

Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston first reported the agreement.

Casas, a corner infielder from American Heritage High School in Florida, was never considered a threat not to sign with the Sox. The 18-year-old has already made headlines in his first week as a member of the Red Sox organization, taking a dig at Pablo Sandoval on draft night and receiving high praise from Padres star first baseman Eric Hosmer.

With Casas all but locked up, some updates on when the Sox' other top prospects are expected to sign:

  • Third-rounder Durbin Feltman, a righty from TCU, is flying to Boston on Sunday night and will take his physical with the club Monday. His bonus is unknown at this point.
  • Fourth-rounder Kole Cottam, a catcher from Kentucky, has agreed to a sign for $375k, according to a source. That comes in slightly under the slot value for pick No. 130 ($417,800), giving the Red Sox about $43k to save for an over-slot bonus elsewhere.
  • Fifth-round pick Thad Ward, a righty from Central Florida, was very close to signing with the club as of Friday, according to a source.
  • Three Red Sox picks have already signed: Sixth-rounder Devlin Granberg (bonus unknown), ninth-rounder Brian Brown (bonus unknown) and tenth-rounder Grant Williams (for $2,500). All three are college seniors, meaning all three deals will be significantly under slot.
  • Second-rounder Nick Decker, a New Jersey prep outfielder, seems to be line for an over-slot bonus. Eleventh-rounder Nick Northcut, who is reportedly flying to Boston this weekend, could be in the same boat.
 

TimScribble

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Late-round pick signing for Red Sox: 25th-rounder Caleb Ramsey, a Colorado prep outfielder, will sign for $125k plus scholarship money. Butler commit going pro, costs Sox $25k against bonus pool. @ColinHubbard22 1st.
 

Cuzittt

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Late-round pick signing for Red Sox: 25th-rounder Caleb Ramsey, a Colorado prep outfielder, will sign for $125k plus scholarship money. Butler commit going pro, costs Sox $25k against bonus pool. @ColinHubbard22 1st.
I don't know how the scholarship money counts (or doesn't) against the pool... But $125k is the max one can get without counting against the pool.

(It used to be 100k, it was bumped up last year).
 

Byrdbrain

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$40k for a college senior is actually high, some of those guys sign for $5k or less. They have absolutely no leverage so they pretty much have to take whatever is offered.
 

tonyarmasjr

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$40k for a college senior is actually high, some of those guys sign for $5k or less. They have absolutely no leverage so they pretty much have to take whatever is offered.
Yeah, it's hard to watch some of these guys sign for $3k and then a high school kid drafted 10 rounds later gets $100k+. I think there should be a minimum slot bonus, as well. They're all kids realizing a dream of getting drafted, but I'm sure each one could find something to do with 10 or 20 thousand dollars.
 

TimScribble

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/06/12/red-sox-are-expected-reach-agreements-with-their-top-draft-picks/gFzia9S5LELNGSSoCkM2sI/story.html

The Red Sox are expected to reach agreements with their first 11 picks in the draft, according to major league sources. Assuming that happens, those players would then be subject to standard physicals and drug tests before their agreements become official. Once that happens, the players would be able to start their pro careers with Red Sox affiliates.

Also

Third baseman Brandon Howlett, taken in the 21st round, is expected to reach agreement to turn pro. He is another prep player whose bat suggests considerable upside.
 

Byrdbrain

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Feltman, the 3rd round college reliever, signed for slot($559k) and will report to Lowell.
This is the guy that many say could be MLB ready this year.
 

TimScribble

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Red Sox announced signings of 8 2018 draft picks, incl. first-rounder 3B Triston Casas. Others are RHPs Durban Feltman (3rd) & Andrew Politi (15th), LHP Brian Brown (9th), OF Devlin Granberg (6th), and 2Bs Jarren Duran (7th), Grant Williams (10th), & Jonathan Ortega (19th).