If there was a trade of Gronk, I'd target Oakland but not for a pick. I'd be targeting Khalil Mack. Aim for the stars or don't trade him at all.
2018 Gronk Watch
- Thread starter LesterFan
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We’re in the 19th year, each of them fascinating, and how we’re looking at the most interesting draft of them all, especially the first round. Whatever deals they have will likely be sprung at the last moment, especially with the talk of them wanting to move around in the first round. Cannot wait. We can all tell our kids and grandkids we were never, ever bored.
That under-values a motivated Gronk so badly I hardly know where to start. Gronk is the 2nd-best asset on the team after TB. He is a key reason we are a SB contender year after year, an unguardable weapon who allows TB to inflict maximum damage with his talents (as opposed to, say, 2006). He's playing for a ~$11M cap hit, admittedly highest among TEs, but his total production across all of his on-field contributions is so much better than the #2 TE that his net value is way, way positive.
It's very hard to get premium, game-changing talent. It's even harder to get it when it's not (A) over-priced as a market-setting FA deal, or (B) on a rookie contract. I realize we drafted him in the 2nd round, but getting a talent like that anywhere but in the top half of the first round - where we've only drafted once since 2003 (2008, #10, Jerod Mayo) - is nigh impossible. And we'd give up this known-quantity, future-HOF production at below-full-value, for a measly end-of-first-round pick, so that we can try to do nearly as well as having a Gronk on the roster?
I mean, in BB I trust... but if he traded Gronk without on-field evidence of Gronk's talent eroding, it would shock me more than the Seymour, Mankins and Garoppolo trades combined.
I think we all realize the value that Gronk brings to the field and I am certainly in no hurry to get rid of him. But he's 28 years-old with a million surgeries behind him and may not be long for this league due to outside interests. Based on pure value, Gronk is worth far more than a pick in the 20s but that really isn't what we're talking about here. If he's ready for a change, wants more money, or just isn't fully bought in for whatever reason, I think we all can surmise that Belichick won't hesitate to trade him so I was speculating on possible teams should that scenario unfold. There are a lot of mitigating factors here that would limit the return that the Pats would get for Gronk.
At this stage, almost anything is possible from retirement to a long-term contract extension to remain with the Pats. We just don't know. My hunch is that this is a Seymour situation in that Belichick won't give Gronk away but he'll consider trading him if the return is enough, which to me is a first round pick.
My strong preference is to keep Gronk and try to get Brady his 6th in the next year or two. But I wouldn't be remotely shocked if he were dealt. Brady dragged a collection of crap to the AFCCG a few years ago. The skill position guys on the team are more than sufficient to make a deep playoff run, particularly if a trade helps with current OL/pass rushing needs.
I wouldn't be surprised. But I think you might see a trade along the lines of a 2018 3rd round pick plus a 2019 first round pick. Gives BB multiple first next year and could add something between 63 and 95
This isn’t very analytical, but it goes to whether Belichick cares about the Brady window. Which I think - and it seems likes there’s more than a few folks who’d agree - is reasonably two years. Health permitting for all, I just don’t see him giving away the all-time binky unless someone really offers him the moon.
Ugh, maybe I’m just wish casting. I cannot STAND the thought of Gronk in another uni
Ugh, maybe I’m just wish casting. I cannot STAND the thought of Gronk in another uni
Deferring the return until after next season would be a pretty tough sell, even for BB. I know the Seymour return was actually deferred two whole seasons, but you can cobble together replacement production for a DL and work around it. Hell, it was still a top 10 scoring D for those two seasons.
I know what you're saying though, it is possible. I just think that's a "we riot" situation* far more than any other moves we've seen.
*I say all this granting that I would probably be made to look a fool in the long-run by BB, but I'm trying to project what my gut reaction would be to a trade along those lines.
I'm pretty confident they can cobble together replacement production at TE, too, and be a top-10 scoring O in 2018 (as they have been every season since 2004).
That’s fair, they’ll be great for as long as Brady is. I shouldn’t have cited those stats as it doesn’t quite illustrate my thought, which is simply that the Gronk hole is bigger.
I probably agree, but I don't think it's a lot bigger than Seymour or Moss, and not a ton bigger than Collins or Chandler Jones or Milloy or Mankins (jeez, there have been kind of a lot of these).
I also wonder how the Butler situation might affect Belichick's thinking here. We don't know what happened there, but it certainly seems like Butler's contract situation affected things on-field and/or off-field to the extent that Belichick didn't feel like he could trust Butler in the biggest game of the season. There are a lot of differences between that situation and this (longer track record with Gronk, better player, more control, more injury history), but I could see him erring on the side of making sure that situation never happens again. OTOH, it seems like they wouldn't have traded Cooks if they thought trading Gronk was a possibility. OTOOH, we'll see who they draft next week. They take Goedert or Gesicki with a top-50 pick and Gronk doesn't show up for the next phase of OTAs, a trade would look a lot less shocking than it would now.
Gronk is still elite: First team All-Pro TE in 2017. Moss was well into his decline when he was traded, as was Milloy and to a lesser extent Mankins. Seymour also wasn't quite the Seymour of the earlier part of the decade either. Chandler Jones is probably the closest, but even he is not as elite at his position as Gronk is at his. I'd say none of those would approach the magnitude of trading an still-in-his prime Gronk for relative pennies on the dollar solely because of what is really a minor difference in contract dollars.
Moss led the league in receiving TDs the year before and had 1200+ yards. He was considerably older than Gronk, but he also had considerably less injury history. As for your last comment, I don't know what a) Gronk's trade market is or b) what Gronk's contract desires are. I'm just saying nothing would surprise me here.
Nothing would surprise me either. He’s coming off a generally healthy year too with a reasonable contract the next two years so I think he might be at peak value. He’s an elite player though on a reasonable contract even if he is possibly being a malcontent (and we don’t know for sure). Of the tight ends this year I really like Goedert’s potential as an all around elite tight end. He’s not there yet and, like you, I’d feel better if I knew his top end speed but his other athletic testing was excellent.
Gronk’s trade value might not even be a high first round pick. At least that’s what I’ve read. If that is the case unless they feel very good about tight end going forward seems like the value isn’t there to trade him before the draft. Again though nothing would surprise me either.
I haven't done the math to see how things intersect but if there are legitimate contenders out there with picks outside the top 10 (and maybe even inside the top 10) who aren't blessed with a top tier TE, I think they would be well served to trade their pick for Gronk. I HOPE the market is not there for him and they wildly disagree with that sentiment.
I understand the health risks, that he might retire over money over or less likely but still possible, dissatisfaction with Bill, and that they won a SB without him. But Brady's numbers with and without Gronk are different, the guy is a beast and he's among the most enjoyable athletes in sports to root for. Absent an outsized haul that they could not refuse, here's to 87 in NE next season.
I don't see a trade as a likely outcome at this point and certainly not for less than a 1st round pick. Imagine the Pats roster without Gronk. Who are your tight ends? Allen and Hollister? Maybe a rookie that you draft? If you have to use the draft pick you got back in the Gronk trade to replace Gronk, what's the point? Freeing up some salary room by significantly downgrading your on-field talent?
Nah, maybe they draft a Gronk replacement this year so they can trade Gronk next year.
Nah, maybe they draft a Gronk replacement this year so they can trade Gronk next year.
Ranking the probabilities, from most probable to least (probabilities heavily influenced by emotion):
1.) Gronk holds out of mini-camp and opening day of training camp before coming to agreement that allows him more $$$ in 2018. This is the Seymour recipe; IIRC, Seymour missed a week of training camp in 2005 or 2006 until he got a salary bump for that season. This was also the Deion Branch recipe, which ended differently. Can't really blame Gronk if this is the plan, and I don't see the Malcolm Butler situation at all playing into how Gronk or the team respond. 35% chance.
2.) Contract extension is announced in May and this becomes all water under the bridge. It's not inconceivable that the two sides meet and discuss a way of getting Gronk some guaranteed coin now while moving some salary cap hits downstream. This could be wishful thinking, but the team does, you know, extend their top players from time to time. 30% chance.
3.) Gronk is traded for a first round pick or package of picks and players (draft means either 2018 or 2019 draft). I'd still be mildly surprised; just not shocked if this was to come to pass. We've seen this happen before. If it was going to happen, I'd much rather a 2018 draft pick(s) than 2019 draft picks, but Bill has not been afraid to trade players for future picks before. I don't see Bill just dumping Gronk for pennies just to get a pick in this year's draft, so 2019 picks could be more realistic. 20% chance, but climbing.
4.) Gronk retires. I will not blame Gronk if this is the path he chooses. Concussions are not something to be toyed with, and he's got a real shot at the Hall even if he retires today. However, given that he's supposedly making noises about wanting a contract extension, I do think the retirement talk is mostly a negotiating ploy. 10% chance.
5.) Nothing changes, and Gronk plays in 2018 for his current contract. This option would normally be ranked higher, but there's been too much smoke to ignore to assume that this will happen. Gronk does have leverage, and will be quite underpaid relative to his peers in 2018. 4.9% chance.
6.) Gronk gets traded for a 2nd round pick or less. Honestly don't see that happening, as this is by far the worst option of all of the above, and Bill usually doesn't settle for the worst option. Yes, letting Gronk retire is a better option than this. 0.1% chance.
1.) Gronk holds out of mini-camp and opening day of training camp before coming to agreement that allows him more $$$ in 2018. This is the Seymour recipe; IIRC, Seymour missed a week of training camp in 2005 or 2006 until he got a salary bump for that season. This was also the Deion Branch recipe, which ended differently. Can't really blame Gronk if this is the plan, and I don't see the Malcolm Butler situation at all playing into how Gronk or the team respond. 35% chance.
2.) Contract extension is announced in May and this becomes all water under the bridge. It's not inconceivable that the two sides meet and discuss a way of getting Gronk some guaranteed coin now while moving some salary cap hits downstream. This could be wishful thinking, but the team does, you know, extend their top players from time to time. 30% chance.
3.) Gronk is traded for a first round pick or package of picks and players (draft means either 2018 or 2019 draft). I'd still be mildly surprised; just not shocked if this was to come to pass. We've seen this happen before. If it was going to happen, I'd much rather a 2018 draft pick(s) than 2019 draft picks, but Bill has not been afraid to trade players for future picks before. I don't see Bill just dumping Gronk for pennies just to get a pick in this year's draft, so 2019 picks could be more realistic. 20% chance, but climbing.
4.) Gronk retires. I will not blame Gronk if this is the path he chooses. Concussions are not something to be toyed with, and he's got a real shot at the Hall even if he retires today. However, given that he's supposedly making noises about wanting a contract extension, I do think the retirement talk is mostly a negotiating ploy. 10% chance.
5.) Nothing changes, and Gronk plays in 2018 for his current contract. This option would normally be ranked higher, but there's been too much smoke to ignore to assume that this will happen. Gronk does have leverage, and will be quite underpaid relative to his peers in 2018. 4.9% chance.
6.) Gronk gets traded for a 2nd round pick or less. Honestly don't see that happening, as this is by far the worst option of all of the above, and Bill usually doesn't settle for the worst option. Yes, letting Gronk retire is a better option than this. 0.1% chance.
Gronk bought a horse name Gronk, who he plans to race in the Kentucky derby
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rob-gronkowski-acquires-stake-in-gronkowski-the-horse-1524078039?mod=e2tws
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rob-gronkowski-acquires-stake-in-gronkowski-the-horse-1524078039?mod=e2tws
On the topic of "Are the Patriots done because BB is not fun to play for?".....
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/michael-bennett-says-he-would-read-in-seahawks-meetings-due-to-pete-carrolls-stories/
Pretty clear that even a fun-loving coach like Carroll, who has been very successful in the NFL, wears out his welcome reasonably quickly. For BB to be this successful for this long is a testimony to the respect that players have for him, even if he isn't "fun" to play for (whatever that means).
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/michael-bennett-says-he-would-read-in-seahawks-meetings-due-to-pete-carrolls-stories/
Pretty clear that even a fun-loving coach like Carroll, who has been very successful in the NFL, wears out his welcome reasonably quickly. For BB to be this successful for this long is a testimony to the respect that players have for him, even if he isn't "fun" to play for (whatever that means).
My opinion is that Belichick is conscious of not getting stale and that's one reason he brings in veteran FA continually, especially free agents from losing programs. So maybe his coaching style wears thin with Jamie Collins, but here's Kyle Van Noy coming from Detroit and he's eager to be coached. It takes a special breed of individual to endure Belichick's style - probably any coach's style, really - for a long period of time. The Patriots have probably had more turnover than most successful programs.
Gronk is holding a press conference in conjunction with the Supercross event at Gillette Stadium in a few minutes.
He said he’s not showing up to optional camp, despite being healthy enough to do so. I’m not sure that will go over well with Belichick, especially as Gronk is a captain. Maybe he’ll strip that title.
And I doubt that’s going well, either. Especially after Belichick gave up Jimmy on Brady’s word he would play until he sucked.
I’m getting to the point where, if in fact this is Belichick’s last year under contract as previously reported, I think this is his last season with Tom Brady. Something seems off.
Your last three words are the perfect title of this offseason.
We can nitpick to death the lazy and sloppy ESPN and Curran pieces, and I have done so. Still, something seems off.
Bill Walsh once said, 10 years max in one place. I doubted it because of the quick turnover on NFL rosters. Maybe he was right. B.B. is approaching 2 x Walsh’s max.
In isolation I don’t care. I am a chief proponent of keeping Gronk in bubble wrap. But Gronk and Brady seem to have devoted the offseason to rubbing Belichick’s nose in it.
This will further fuel the Felger and Mazz craziness. That Kraft has given B.B. the keys as always to this draft and a lot of money, and that B.B. will handle the draft, hand the keys to Josh, and mic drop as a final eff you on the way out the door.
I don’t buy it and loathe those two with the passion of a thousand suns. But nothing would surprise me at this point.
I get my local boston takes from this board, supplemented by the occasional talk with my brother-in-law in Boston. I tend to ignore the ESPN melodrama pieces. So when I met BIL a few weeks ago, he reported as a well-known fact that the Garropollo trade was the evidence of the Kraft/BB/Brady rift. Now, he can be off (he believes Garopollo is better than Brady now), but was convinced that what happened was
1.BB wanted to trade Brady for 3 number 1s and begin rebuild
2.Brady went to Kraft during season and said "no way you can trade me"
3.Kraft went back on his promise never to interfere with personnel choices, and refused to allow trade
4.BB, to spite Kraft and Brady, gave Garoppolo away for almost nothing
5.The rift between BB and Kraft is now impossible to fix and BB will walk
I guess the theory is good ESPN fodder, but BIL was so convinced this was fact. Given that everyone seems to discount the ESPN articles (for good reason), who locally is feeding this line so BIL would believe it as fact? Felger?
1.BB wanted to trade Brady for 3 number 1s and begin rebuild
2.Brady went to Kraft during season and said "no way you can trade me"
3.Kraft went back on his promise never to interfere with personnel choices, and refused to allow trade
4.BB, to spite Kraft and Brady, gave Garoppolo away for almost nothing
5.The rift between BB and Kraft is now impossible to fix and BB will walk
I guess the theory is good ESPN fodder, but BIL was so convinced this was fact. Given that everyone seems to discount the ESPN articles (for good reason), who locally is feeding this line so BIL would believe it as fact? Felger?
Brady's absence from the voluntary workouts has been well explained. I really don't think we need to speculate about how Bill feels about it, as by all accounts Brady's absence was known far in advance.
Something being "off" is still possible, especially when it comes to Gronk. Still say that money talks, and that most of this smoke around Gronk could very well be due to money. Can't blame him for not wanting to play for a discount this season.
I do not understand the money element in this.
If I understand things correctly, Gronk also was under contract last season. It was amended to provide incentives that reasonably could make Gronk the highest compensated TE in the League. Gronk made those incentives and was last season the highest compensated TE in the League.
Why not a re-do of this? Or is my understanding incorrect?
If I understand things correctly, Gronk also was under contract last season. It was amended to provide incentives that reasonably could make Gronk the highest compensated TE in the League. Gronk made those incentives and was last season the highest compensated TE in the League.
Why not a re-do of this? Or is my understanding incorrect?
When the Patriots did the incentives last year, they were NLTBE (not likely to be earned) because he hadn't reached those marks in an injury-shortened 2016, so they didn't count against the cap at the time. If they did those incentives now, it would consume cap space because they would be classfied as LTBE (likely to be earned).
Beyond that, I can imagine some combination of a) the Patriots did a solid to Gronk last year on his contract that they didn't have to do and don't want to have to monkey with his contract every offseason and/or b) Gronk feels like he's proven he's still Gronk and wants something more concrete than an incentive-based deal.
Honestly I think the biggest signal in all of this is Tom Curran. I can never remember him writing like this / talking like this / tweeting like this. Now it may be a result of him having a lot of new hours of airtime to fill and he is just following the Felger route. But for a guy who has been one of the staunchest defenders in the media his turn has opened my eyes.
I am of the belief that the biggest thing sticking in Gronk's craw here isn't money, though of course I'm sure he would like more of it. It's the Guerrero thing. He wants to train as he sees fit, and he's bought into the Brady/AG way of doing things. He and Brady are tight and I'm sure they talk about this and I bet it's bothering Gronk big-time to not really feel free to train as he wants. He has made a couple of quotes along those lines.
I know this is an irrational, emotional reaction, but after the gut-punch of the SB loss, I could not be more tired of Gronk's 4th-grade Hamlet act and am almost hoping that they ship him to the Browns, Bears, or Bucs for a high first rounder.
Indeed, but Gronk appears to have one foot out the door when it comes to the NFL. He probably just wants to make some more money and not get killed. So there is a chance he doesn't even care about that.
Ah I see in that context he doesn’t need the Pats but the Pats don’t need or want that version of Gronk either. I’m fully on board with a trade at this point. I’d be looking for an early 3rd plus a 2019 first.
Kind of but he is weirdly pro Jimmy. He knows his stuff but he does stir the pot a bit
For the first time, today I started to believe that a Gronk trade is possible. That was the biggest FU to Bill publicly that I've seen from a Patriots player. I wonder if the fame off the field plus his father's influence is starting to get to his head. Gordie was right alongside laughing today. He knows Rob is his meal ticket and if he got out of New England he may think he'll get paid what he's worth.
Thursday night was already more interesting, but after today watch out.
Thursday night was already more interesting, but after today watch out.
I believe we have had nothing resembling this apart from a player in a contract impasse. Vince, for example. And everyone knows that’s business, and it’s fine.
One has to go back to the Terry Glenn business — year 1 of the regime — to find team and player so off the same page. That situation was worse, and Glenn was suspended.
What did B.B. say just last year? He had reached a point where he did not want pains-in-the-ass around anymore.
If you’re looking to shoot your way out of town, this is some excellent shooting.
One has to go back to the Terry Glenn business — year 1 of the regime — to find team and player so off the same page. That situation was worse, and Glenn was suspended.
What did B.B. say just last year? He had reached a point where he did not want pains-in-the-ass around anymore.
If you’re looking to shoot your way out of town, this is some excellent shooting.
That's a laughable return, so it ain't happening. The Pats don't have to trade Gronk, and today's remarks didn't change that calculus.
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