2018 Draft: Patriots need to re-stock

RedOctober3829

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- During our recent mock draft we had the New England Patriots selecting Alabama safetyRonnie Harrison at the end of round one. Today someone candidly told me Harrison is a, “Patriots type of player; smart, tough and talented.” I’m told Harrison will interview well and knows the X’s and O’s better than anyone on the Crimson Tide defense. He’s expected to time in the low 4.5s and potential get into the 4.4’s during workouts Monday.

http://draftanalyst.com/combine-notes-day-3
 

Greekca

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I like Harrison to the Patriots, but I just don't see how he fits given the current roster. Patrick Chung is on the last year of his deal at a cap hit of $3.8mm and if he is cut would have $800k of dead money. Jordan Richards is thankfully on his last year too at a cap hit of $1.2mm with $240k in dead money if he is cut. Harrison would probably have a first year cap hit of around $1mm.

Just doesn't seem like prudent roster construction to take him where you would need to grab him (1st or 2nd round) given that you already have a starter that performs pretty well at his position and would cost you almost $1mm in dead money to get rid of. The move would probably be to cut Richards and have Harrison shadow until Chung leaves. Given the holes at LT, front 7, and RB I just don't see the stars aligning.
 

RedOctober3829

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I like Harrison to the Patriots, but I just don't see how he fits given the current roster. Patrick Chung is on the last year of his deal at a cap hit of $3.8mm and if he is cut would have $800k of dead money. Jordan Richards is thankfully on his last year too at a cap hit of $1.2mm with $240k in dead money if he is cut. Harrison would probably have a first year cap hit of around $1mm.

Just doesn't seem like prudent roster construction to take him where you would need to grab him (1st or 2nd round) given that you already have a starter that performs pretty well at his position and would cost you almost $1mm in dead money to get rid of. The move would probably be to cut Richards and have Harrison shadow until Chung leaves. Given the holes at LT, front 7, and RB I just don't see the stars aligning.
The move, as you said in your last paragraph, would be to get rid of Richards and add Harrison.
 

Greekca

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The move, as you said in your last paragraph, would be to get rid of Richards and add Harrison.
But that would mean spending a late first/early second to replace a backup safety when you have glaring needs at other positions that are much tougher to fill later in the draft. Much tougher to find a starting impact LT, DE, or DT in the middle rounds than it is to find a starting caliber safety.
 

RedOctober3829

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But that would mean spending a late first/early second to replace a backup safety when you have glaring needs at other positions that are much tougher to fill later in the draft. Much tougher to find a starting impact LT, DE, or DT in the middle rounds than it is to find a starting caliber safety.
We’ll have to see what they do in free agency to really diagnose the draft needs.
 

SMU_Sox

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Giardi says Pats met with Sony Michel. I would absolutely love him on the Pats. Dynamic RB to replace Lewis.
Yeah love Sony here too.

The reason Garcia missed all of last year was due to blood clots in his lungs. Expected to make a full recovery:
This makes me feel better about him going forward. Still what is the recovery process like and what can we expect in 2018? I liked him coming out just a shame we lost another young year.
 

SMU_Sox

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Hubbard had a great performance at 270. 6.84 3-cone? 9’8” Broad and a 35” vertical. He didn’t run the 40 but those numbers show me he has explosiveness.

Super Nomario, is that a banana in your pocket or are you just happy to see those numbers?
 

SMU_Sox

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There have been some prospects from the Lockedon Patriots podcast, ITP guys, and SoSH that had some very good combines.

Sam Hubbard, Edge, Ohio State
Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State
Austin Corbett, Guard, Nevada
Fred Warner, LB, BYU
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
Shaquem Griffin, LB, UCF
 

Super Nomario

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Eh that seemed pretty boilerplate to me. They watched some film?!
No state secrets there, but my understanding is the Patriots don't like players talking about meeting with them. T.J. Moe: "[The Patriots] were the only team that told me not to tell any other team that they interviewed me." Beyond that, he mentions a) some of the people in the room and b) some of the questions they ask. I could see Belichick being unhappy with Reid's comments, even if the impact is likely very, very little.
 

RedOctober3829

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No state secrets there, but my understanding is the Patriots don't like players talking about meeting with them. T.J. Moe: "[The Patriots] were the only team that told me not to tell any other team that they interviewed me." Beyond that, he mentions a) some of the people in the room and b) some of the questions they ask. I could see Belichick being unhappy with Reid's comments, even if the impact is likely very, very little.
Either he screwed up or the Patriots didn't tell him to keep it a secret because they aren't interested in him anymore.
 

SMU_Sox

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Think it is fair to say that Patriots might want to draft and develop a slot receiver. Here are three mid to later round and UDFA options.

Trey Quinn, SMU. Loved him this year. He's a built guy and moved well. A lot of scouts talked about him probably not testing well but he was above average on all measures but the jumps. He has a large catch radius and large sure hands. He is great getting open, kills zones, runs routes well. Oh, his 3 cone is 6.91 which isn't elite like his teammate Sutton's (6.57!) but it's still good. Pre-combine he was projected as a round 7/PFA and since, I don't know. He'd be a guy I would love to take a late round flyer on. It is hard to find film on him - luckily for me I followed him and Sutton closely this year. Quinn was a fan favorite and I hope he carves out a nice role for himself somewhere in the NFL.

Keke Coutee, Texas Tech. He is an undersized speed type who is fast and quick and offers use on special teams as a kick returner. He can struggle against physical coverage. He is elusive in space. He also would take some time to learn the route concepts in the Patriots offense. I don't think he is a sophisticated route runner. He is a guy who might be limited in year 1 but could contribute more in years 2 and 3. He has the highest ceiling of these three because of his athleticism - he can stretch the field vertically from the slot. Having Coutee and Cooks on the same team creates some interesting matchups but I would think the Pats would need to extend Cooks before Coutee would see enough time to share the field with him. He didn't have a Pats prototypical 3-cone with a 60th percentile 6.93 but it is still an OK time.

Braxton Berrios, Miami. Another smaller receiver. I like his route running and use of subtle moves to fool corners. Against FSU he really worked Kyle Meyers. He doesn't get a ton of separation but he gets enough and combined with his catch ability and being in sync with his QB he consistently picked up 1st downs and got open in the red zone. He is a smart player - also added bonus he is a punt returner. He can't block well and that did hurt them when they ran outside. I don't think he has the highest ceiling because of his size and I don't think he is going to test off the charts but I prefer to think of what he can do well and he would be a good slot prospect.

Quick edit: I believe some of you have mentioned these guys in the past. My $0.02.
 

EL Jeffe

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SMU (et al), curious to hear your thought on Jack Cichy, ILB from Wisconsin. He was an absolute dude there, but the durability concerns make Ras-I Dowling look like Ripken Jr. Still, when he was healthy, he was basically Vander Esch before he was a thing. Cichy doesn’t have Vander Esch’s ++ size, but Cichy has prototype ILB size and worked out really well at the pro day. Had he not missed 2017 with a knee injury, my guess is a 2nd round grade. 3rd round feels right to me, but I don’t think I’d have an issue with late 2nd. He was really good, but I could be biased because he reminds me of one of the old WWF Road Warriors.
 

SMU_Sox

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SMU (et al), curious to hear your thought on Jack Cichy, ILB from Wisconsin. He was an absolute dude there, but the durability concerns make Ras-I Dowling look like Ripken Jr. Still, when he was healthy, he was basically Vander Esch before he was a thing. Cichy doesn’t have Vander Esch’s ++ size, but Cichy has prototype ILB size and worked out really well at the pro day. Had he not missed 2017 with a knee injury, my guess is a 2nd round grade. 3rd round feels right to me, but I don’t think I’d have an issue with late 2nd. He was really good, but I could be biased because he reminds me of one of the old WWF Road Warriors.
I've seen a lot of 3rd/4th round grades around him. Also seen day 3 to UDFA. I get why people like him, he's athletic. The thing with Cichy is even though he is athletic he is very raw. I saw him against Iowa and Michigan. There is a lot I do not like about his game. I typically do not post about prospects I don't like quite a bit. And if he's going in day 2 there are other prospects I would rather have. However, he's a high ceiling and interesting developmental prospect for me in day 3.

The obvious: His medicals need to check out. He tore a pectoral muscle and missed half of 2016 and then tore his ACL in practice before the 2017 season. He hasn't played football since October 2016. However he looked pretty good at his pro-day today (I think it was today - I read about it today).

Cichy struggled with reading and reacting to the run. He, to use a fun scouting term, doesn't have much sand in the pants and often gets pushed around by lineman or even receivers. He isn't decisive either attacking his gaps. I think some of this is lack of experience. But that means he will be a developmental guy right away because he also is inconsistent in coverage and in particular reading and reacting to it. He usually drops into zones but is either too late to react and takes bad angles to try to catch up to the receiver and/or RB or he reacts in time to limit the gain but not to break-up the pass. You watch it on 50% speed and you keep waiting for him to pick up or anticipate a route but he's usually just a click late or worse. Again experience related. He has the speed to do it but the mental processing isn't there.

He is not a consistent tackler, poor form, and often gets run through for extra yards - many missed and broken tackles too. He also takes poor angles. Is that being aggressive and trying to defend the sticks or mental errors? I have a lot of questions I want to ask him. On the positive side he does make some highlight reel tackles and some athletic chase-downs. It's a consistency issue which I think is partially experience.

So with Cichy I have questions about his medicals, his approach, his instincts, and he needs work on most aspects of the game. But if a GM/Coach thinks he can fix Cichy then because of his athleticism, 2016 tape/production, and his high ceiling he is a great developmental pick. You're going to get a lot of crucial information you need on what you can expect out of him from interviews and a leap of faith that he makes up for lost time. Just by going on his film, pro-day incomplete testing but + athleticism I would think he is a day 3 pick. He's not a guy I feel comfortable projecting because he's such an incomplete and we're operating with limited information.

You know in baseball there are the toolsy A-ball prospects who throw 98 and have a nice offspeed compliment but everything else is projection/a-question-mark? Cichy is that guy to me as an off-ball LB.
 

EL Jeffe

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Carter would be a great get at #31 but I'm starting to wonder if he'll be around that long.
 

RedOctober3829

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Bret Bielema is at USC Pro Day in Pats gear.

Belichick also met with South Carolina DT Taylor Galloway the night before their pro day along with TE Hayden Hurst and LB/safety hybrid player Skai Moore. Moore is an interesting prospect. He's 6'2" 230 lbs and was a 1st team All-SEC LB. He had 353 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 14 INTs in his career.

“Teams I have spoken to say I’m a three-down guy who can play in space. They see me excelling in space,” he said. “I can come in and help on the passing down situations immediately. That’s the thing I’ve been hearing.”

Moore did linebacker and defensive back drills during the workout.

“I felt comfortable in the drops in the DB drills,” he said. “As far as the field work, I think I did pretty well.”
http://www.thestate.com/sports/college/university-of-south-carolina/usc-football/article205156434.html
 
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SMU_Sox

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So I have this goal to make a Patriots draft board for the first 3-4 rounds of players who may be of interest to them. The Patriots are known for their small boards because they are deliberate on prospects they want to draft. Caserio said it himself much better than I just did (this is an article from last year), "We are trying to find players that we feel comfortable with on all levels that we would actually draft. Not that are going to get drafted. Three-hundred players or whatever it is are going to get drafted. It's players that we would draft, that we would actually feel comfortable with in our program in some capacity."

There is a separate list for the anticipated undrafted guys they are interested in as well.

This year though you can make an argument that WR (as SuperNomario pointed out, both slot and more traditional X type), TE, RB, OT, G, QB, Edge, LB (WLB and MLB), IDL, DBs are all positions of either current or soon to be future need. Obviously they are not going to fill all their needs through the draft. They consistently fill out their roster with 1-2 year deals for average starters as well as mining the scrap heaps for gold. Even considering smart free agent moves they could go in so many directions with the draft. We know they like to be developing a QB, that their receiving depth past this year is thin and questionable given injury history and/or age. At tight end Gronk could always call it quits earlier than anticipated, is always an injury concern, while Hollister is still just developing. As for guard, Mason is a free agent after next year. They have Karras, but I think he is more likely a capable backup then a starter from the limited about of information I've read about him. That's the offense.

Defense has more bodies but I question the top end talent in the front 7. As for positions of need in 2019: DT, CB, LB, slot. Most of these positions, even with guys taken in the first 3 rounds, should not be counted on to be significant contributors in year 1.

Thanks to inside the pylon we know how much draft capital the Patriots spent developing players vs free agency at each positional grouping but that is their information and it is also just for 2014-2017. I think this helps explain how rosters were built and it could predict how teams like to operate but it also might be too circumstantial or contextual to use for how a team will act in the future. The Patriots in the past have invested 2nds and 3rds on WR/RBs/TEs and could in the future even if they haven't recently.

Where would an upgrade at talent given your roster construction in 2018-2019+ help the most?

I tried to narrow it down. Please let me know your thoughts - I feel a bit lost in the weeds here.

On Offense: WR, OT, TE, QB

On Defense: DT, CB, Off-ball LB, Slot/Saf/weapon, Edge (And I love Rivers but he is now a bit behind and coming off of an injury), and Chess-piece.
A chess piece is someone like a Lorenzo Carter who can rush the passer, drop into a zone, possibly give you some man coverage skills, and lineup in multiple positions in the front 7. Shaquem Griffin is a later round version of a chess piece. There could be some overlap here as a guy like LVE could play MLB or possibly line up on the edge and rush the passer (not his strong suit but it's been tossed around).
That's 9/10 positions of need where you might want to build up the pipeline. I feel like this is a bit much or I must be crazy... and just to reiterate I know you can't build the entire roster through the draft. Just that if they wanted to they have more future needs than usual.
 

ZMart100

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I don't think much about needs when building a Patriots draft list. I think more about fit. Why would the Patriots like player X more than the rest of the league does?
 

Super Nomario

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- During our recent mock draft we had the New England Patriots selecting Alabama safetyRonnie Harrison at the end of round one. Today someone candidly told me Harrison is a, “Patriots type of player; smart, tough and talented.” I’m told Harrison will interview well and knows the X’s and O’s better than anyone on the Crimson Tide defense. He’s expected to time in the low 4.5s and potential get into the 4.4’s during workouts Monday.

http://draftanalyst.com/combine-notes-day-3
But that would mean spending a late first/early second to replace a backup safety when you have glaring needs at other positions that are much tougher to fill later in the draft. Much tougher to find a starting impact LT, DE, or DT in the middle rounds than it is to find a starting caliber safety.
Our ITP guys really liked Harrison, especially his run defense and man-to-man coverage ability. I could see them playing Harrison alongside Chung a lot (like they did with Chung and Richards in the Super Bowl). Belichick has been looking for a LB/S hybrid dimebackers seemingly forever, and I think with Shelton and Valentine up front, they have the beef on the DL to play a lot of dime behind it. That may be where the league is going. Justin Reid another option (as is, for that matter, signing his brother Eric or Kenny Vaccaro, both of whom are still out there).

Hubbard had a great performance at 270. 6.84 3-cone? 9’8” Broad and a 35” vertical. He didn’t run the 40 but those numbers show me he has explosiveness.

Super Nomario, is that a banana in your pocket or are you just happy to see those numbers?
Hubbard ended up running a 4.88 40 at his Pro Day, which is kinda crappy given that Ohio State has a notoriously fast track. But if anything that makes him even more Pats-y. Ninkovich had similar numbers coming out - a lousy 40 (4.93 for Nink) but good jumps (35" vert vs Hubbard's 34.5; identical 9'8" broad jumps) and outstanding agility drills (Nick 4.18 shuttle and 6.96 3-cone; Hubbard 4.32 shuttle and 6.84 3-cone). And Hubbard's bigger - more than two inches taller and 10 pounds heavier. I think I prefer Lorenzo Carter but I'll be happy with Hubbard, especially if they can get him with a second-rounder.
 

SMU_Sox

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I love Ronnie Harrison. I’m not giving away any state secrets here but he’s a guy that ITP, NDT, and others in the community universally liked. The big media guys like him too.

I got through the entire ITP draft guide. Guys, it’s a fucking gem. That being said there are always going to be guys where disagreements occur.

SuperNomario, what’s the rules on discussing the work? Specifically I want to talk about Harrison Phillips and Tim Settle. But I don’t want to give anything away because you all worked too hard and should be rewarded for it. I picked those two because of all the positions I spent a lot of time on DT and LB. I have looked at tape for every single DT listed in ITP, NDT, and other formats. On the mobile and my laptop is at home but it’s about 30-35 DTs and 30-35 LBs mostly offball. I feel comfortable looking at their film and discussing them.

Of the independent draft guides, for example, there are some, as expected, discrepancies on prospects.

The two DLs I wanted to bring up were Tim Settle, and Harrison Phillips. The NDT side is less favorable on Settle than ITP but I am much closer to you all on him. Harrison Phillips though I see as barely draftable as a DT based on his tape.

Before I go into why though I want to make sure I don’t step on any toes...
 

Super Nomario

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I love Ronnie Harrison. I’m not giving away any state secrets here but he’s a guy that ITP, NDT, and others in the community universally liked. The big media guys like him too.

I got through the entire ITP draft guide. Guys, it’s a fucking gem. That being said there are always going to be guys where disagreements occur.

SuperNomario, what’s the rules on discussing the work? Specifically I want to talk about Harrison Phillips and Tim Settle. But I don’t want to give anything away because you all worked too hard and should be rewarded for it. I picked those two because of all the positions I spent a lot of time on DT and LB. I have looked at tape for every single DT listed in ITP, NDT, and other formats. On the mobile and my laptop is at home but it’s about 30-35 DTs and 30-35 LBs mostly offball. I feel comfortable looking at their film and discussing them.

Of the independent draft guides, for example, there are some, as expected, discrepancies on prospects.

The two DLs I wanted to bring up were Tim Settle, and Harrison Phillips. The NDT side is less favorable on Settle than ITP but I am much closer to you all on him. Harrison Phillips though I see as barely draftable as a DT based on his tape.

Before I go into why though I want to make sure I don’t step on any toes...
Go for it! As long as you don't post whole profiles or anything it's basically free advertising. And we'll have our vertical board up at fanspeak within the week so our rankings aren't going to be a mystery ...
 

SMU_Sox

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Go for it! As long as you don't post whole profiles or anything it's basically free advertising. And we'll have our vertical board up at fanspeak within the week so our rankings aren't going to be a mystery ...
First of all, thank you. Greatly appreciate the ability to interact on this.
So Harrison Phillips. I like his upside as a pass rusher. I am not sure he is an every down player though as a defensive tackle.
Most profiles on him, like the one from NFL.com (not behind paywall so using it)

"Where do you play him? Loses balance which makes nose tough and he doesn’t have athleticism to play with three-technique. But I get that he makes a bunch of plays and he's obviously a strong guy. I just see him as a day three player."
Underline added.

That's more or less where I am at. As a rotational pass rushing tackle, sure, on 3rd and 13 line him up as a 0/1 tech if you want. But he's not a nose as an every day player.
So he's a 3T then? That's where I do not think he is athletic enough. I am also not as high on his burst, I do not think he shows good burst. I see him struggle more holding gaps too. Lateral and change of direction looked bad on tape but he posted a nice 3-cone. Perhaps when his technique cleans up it will be easier for some inherent lateral agility to shine? I am a bit skeptical.
He needs a lot of refinement and polish, right? Fair to say I think and many college players do. He feels more to me like a developmental guy without a true position, limited athleticism, but with a high motor, and who has enough good traits that he can contribute in time. Draft wise I find him a hard player to project with a lot of question marks. I could see him as a bust in 2-3 years, a rotational pass rusher, or as a rotational player on more than just 3rd down passing situations for the team that developed him and put him in the best position to succeed schematically.

How would you develop Harrison Phillips? Where would you develop him? What does his path to NFL success look like and what are some teams that could/would/should want to look at him if you think there are any in particular?
 

SMU_Sox

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ITP grades traits on a 1 (Rare) to 7 (Marginal) scale.

Harrison Phillips had a RAS of 7.94, and ITP gave him a 3 on his athleticism. Based on his RAS I can understand the 3. Did you all see a 3 athleticism on tape? I thought he was a 4-5 on tape.

ITP has Harrison Phillips at 84. NDT's Joe Marino has him at 154, and Kyle Crabbs has him at 190. Jon Ledyard doesn't like him, and is vocal about that (shocking). They have issues with his functional strength, athleticism, and flexibility/COD. I think the divide is on how athletic he is and how athletic he plays and what that ceiling looks like. That makes him somewhat of a risky prospect to me.

There is another divide between ITP and NDT over Tim Settle. I don't have a numeric scale like you all do because I have not created a formal process for me to look at people. I think Settle was more athletic on tape than his testing showed. I would be comfortable taking him in the 3rd round and I think he is somewhere between a 3rd and 4th round pick in a vacuum. Reading Crabbs writeup on him it's hard to see why he has Settle as a 6th round grade given what he actually wrote about him. I will ask him on twitter... Ledyard thinks Settle is a day 3 guy with little upside because he he is not athletic and has a body type that tapers out near his calves/ankles which cause him to lose balance and end up on the ground "all the time". Jon, I think, saw a flaw, and then saw it in every single snap magnified no matter what. One of the reasons I posted that was just to show that I disagree with NDT on things too - like with the ITP scouts, there is variance on where people see someone. Also, I think Settle is an intriguing option for the Patriots to restock on DTs and he has the potential to be good against both the pass and the run which is incredibly valuable.
 
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Super Nomario

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First of all, thank you. Greatly appreciate the ability to interact on this.
So Harrison Phillips. I like his upside as a pass rusher. I am not sure he is an every down player though as a defensive tackle.
Most profiles on him, like the one from NFL.com (not behind paywall so using it)


Underline added.

That's more or less where I am at. As a rotational pass rushing tackle, sure, on 3rd and 13 line him up as a 0/1 tech if you want. But he's not a nose as an every day player.
So he's a 3T then? That's where I do not think he is athletic enough. I am also not as high on his burst, I do not think he shows good burst. I see him struggle more holding gaps too. Lateral and change of direction looked bad on tape but he posted a nice 3-cone. Perhaps when his technique cleans up it will be easier for some inherent lateral agility to shine? I am a bit skeptical.
He needs a lot of refinement and polish, right? Fair to say I think and many college players do. He feels more to me like a developmental guy without a true position, limited athleticism, but with a high motor, and who has enough good traits that he can contribute in time. Draft wise I find him a hard player to project with a lot of question marks. I could see him as a bust in 2-3 years, a rotational pass rusher, or as a rotational player on more than just 3rd down passing situations for the team that developed him and put him in the best position to succeed schematically.

How would you develop Harrison Phillips? Where would you develop him? What does his path to NFL success look like and what are some teams that could/would/should want to look at him if you think there are any in particular?
I didn't scout Phillips, but I think the report is consistent with your take on him:

Will not fit many systems and that is his real downfall. Not strong enough to be a 0 or 1-T and taking on double teams and not quick enough as a 3-T to be a consistent difference maker as a pass rusher. With the proper coaching, he’ll become a good run defender in 1-on-1 situations and be a good pass rusher. He is a good football player without a true position. His best fit would probably be a 3-tech in a 1 gap system.
He seems to be a polarizing guy in the ITP room; his initial grade was a little lower (6.75) but there were guys pushing to keep him higher. You can see some of this in the "crosscheck conversation" on his profile. He had a strange Combine: poor 40, below-average broad jump, very good vertical, excellent agility drills, outstanding bench (despite having long arms). He has good size, too.

A guy who comes to mind reading Phillips' report is Trey Flowers. Flowers has a lot different body type and skill set, but he fell to the fourth round because he didn't have a natural position, either - too short and not bendy enough for the edge, too light for the inside. Like Flowers, Phillips was a really productive college player. That doesn't mean it'll translate, but it's a data point for the "some guys can just play" school.
 

SMU_Sox

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Yeah, his cross-check conversation was interesting because you had guys who, by their scores, would have had him top 30-40 overall. I never thought of the Flowers comparison in the “some guys can just play” school. Thank you. I have no objections to a Harrison Phillips day 3 or early day 3 pick. Day 3 is even more of a crapshoot anyway. But I think he wrestles his way into day 2. Heh.