2018 Draft: Patriots and QBs
- Thread starter DJnVa
- Start date
I’m definitely not an expert but I do watch a lot of college ball and have seen enough of Sam Darnold to have an opinion of him. Look, many college QBs are inconsistent. But Darnold is more inconsistent than other prospects mentioned as a potential top 10 pick. Last night he admitted that he often tries to do too much but I think it is more than that.
The first thing you’ll notice when watching Darnold is he has a funky delivery. His right arm makes a long loop before he releases. His delivery is problematic. Darnold doesn’t just get happy feet but he doesn’t always step into the throw right. You’ll notice these throws from him where his legs are pointed in one direction and his body and arm are going another.
He has a bad habit, again like many college QBs, of staring down his routes and telegraphing where he is going. This I think tends to happen more on 3rd downs and that would tie into him admittedly trying to do to much but I could be wrong here. He forces a lot of throws while safer ones are left open. Part of me likes this as his safer throws are usually options that are behind the sticks and those are higher completion % options but will often fail to get the first down but that doesn’t mean making a difficult throw into triple coverage is the better option.
His pocket presence is also inconsistent. He can hang onto the ball too lon and take coverage sacks. You saw some of that on display last night. He also doesn’t always step up into the pocket. Other times he looks like a pro.
And then he can put on the Sam Darnold show where he makes great decisions, throws well (even with that delivery), and looks like a first round pick to-be.
Darnold strikes me as a guy with a lot of tools but a lot of inconsistencies. How much is fixable? I’ve done ok over the years, minus Jimmy G and Carson Wentz, on QB prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft. I haven’t seen or read the final pre-draft analysis on Darnold from the 5-10 guys I go to but Darnold is the kind of prospect I typically shy away from. Too many question marks for me. Obviously I’m open to different takes on him and my mind isn’t made up yet.
Quick edit: In a vacuum I like Baker Mayfield more than Darnold. Then again we’re talking about two storied programs that, aside from Sam Bradford, have not had a good track record of producing NFL QBs recently. Also, Mayfield and Darnold are about as different as potential top QBs can get. I’d like to see how Mayfield does against defenses in this year’s playoffs. One more data point. Not crazy about the level of defensive competition he has seen so far minus Ohio State week 2.
The first thing you’ll notice when watching Darnold is he has a funky delivery. His right arm makes a long loop before he releases. His delivery is problematic. Darnold doesn’t just get happy feet but he doesn’t always step into the throw right. You’ll notice these throws from him where his legs are pointed in one direction and his body and arm are going another.
He has a bad habit, again like many college QBs, of staring down his routes and telegraphing where he is going. This I think tends to happen more on 3rd downs and that would tie into him admittedly trying to do to much but I could be wrong here. He forces a lot of throws while safer ones are left open. Part of me likes this as his safer throws are usually options that are behind the sticks and those are higher completion % options but will often fail to get the first down but that doesn’t mean making a difficult throw into triple coverage is the better option.
His pocket presence is also inconsistent. He can hang onto the ball too lon and take coverage sacks. You saw some of that on display last night. He also doesn’t always step up into the pocket. Other times he looks like a pro.
And then he can put on the Sam Darnold show where he makes great decisions, throws well (even with that delivery), and looks like a first round pick to-be.
Darnold strikes me as a guy with a lot of tools but a lot of inconsistencies. How much is fixable? I’ve done ok over the years, minus Jimmy G and Carson Wentz, on QB prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft. I haven’t seen or read the final pre-draft analysis on Darnold from the 5-10 guys I go to but Darnold is the kind of prospect I typically shy away from. Too many question marks for me. Obviously I’m open to different takes on him and my mind isn’t made up yet.
Quick edit: In a vacuum I like Baker Mayfield more than Darnold. Then again we’re talking about two storied programs that, aside from Sam Bradford, have not had a good track record of producing NFL QBs recently. Also, Mayfield and Darnold are about as different as potential top QBs can get. I’d like to see how Mayfield does against defenses in this year’s playoffs. One more data point. Not crazy about the level of defensive competition he has seen so far minus Ohio State week 2.
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The recent chatter in TB/JG thread seems to be, don’t worry, we got this; every reason to be super optimistic about BB’s ability to draft and develop tier 1 QB — even though there is zero evidence for that over the last 18 years apart from the Brady flyer and perhaps JG. Indeed, BB parting with Jacoby Brissett is cited for the proposition that nothing less than a top-ten starter will do, as if someone in the 11 to 16 range is unacceptable.
I’d take someone 11 to 16 right now as the eventual successor. By definition it’s at least League average. BB can win with that or better. Maybe not as much, and maybe not Super Bowls, but he can win. The Bills deciding for one game that Tyrod Taylor is unacceptable probably will cost them a playoff spot.
When you are consistently drafting at 28 to 32, it’s not going to be easy. In fact, it’s likely to be very hard. For years, QBs have been over drafted, and it’s very likely to get worse. Among other reasons because the Eagles and Rams were panned —no, they were fucking killed — for drafting Wentz and Goff so high.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/nov/06/carson-wentz-philadelphia-eagles-jared-goff-los-angeles-rams-nfl
Well how is that looking? Next spring QBs will be flying off the shelf at blinding speed; even ones with obvious deficiencies. If for no other reasons than the error of recency.
That’s why the Pats moving up would not surprise me, if they think they have found their guy.
I’d take someone 11 to 16 right now as the eventual successor. By definition it’s at least League average. BB can win with that or better. Maybe not as much, and maybe not Super Bowls, but he can win. The Bills deciding for one game that Tyrod Taylor is unacceptable probably will cost them a playoff spot.
When you are consistently drafting at 28 to 32, it’s not going to be easy. In fact, it’s likely to be very hard. For years, QBs have been over drafted, and it’s very likely to get worse. Among other reasons because the Eagles and Rams were panned —no, they were fucking killed — for drafting Wentz and Goff so high.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/nov/06/carson-wentz-philadelphia-eagles-jared-goff-los-angeles-rams-nfl
Well how is that looking? Next spring QBs will be flying off the shelf at blinding speed; even ones with obvious deficiencies. If for no other reasons than the error of recency.
That’s why the Pats moving up would not surprise me, if they think they have found their guy.
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This is my post, so you could have just quoted it in the other thread, but sure I’ll respond. I don’t ever want a top 11-15 QB in this league because they very rarely win SB, but win enough to keep you from drafting elite talent every year. I think if you asked BB what the goal was, it would be to win Superbowls, not go 9-7 and wallow in mediocrity. And as for BB winning after Brady with a blah QB...the guy is 65. If Brady goes another 2-3 years, how much longer exactly do you think he’s going to coach?
I doubt they’ll be getting another all-time coach once BB leaves, so the best bet is to Mike McCarthy-proof things by setting things up better than Jacoby Brissett or leave the team pile of crap for better rebuilding chances. Maybe the odds aren’t likely and Jimmy sure might qualify as a future elite QB, but the problem is Brady is still playing at an MVP level, this team has BB (unlike the 2022 Pats), and it’s constructed to compete for SB the next few years. I think maybe some people have forgotten exactly how difficult it is to make the AFCCG, because doing anything to potentially hinder a few years as potential SB favorites in favor of an unknown future down the road is a hell of a lot to give up. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have averaged one Superbowl every 12 years or so. Even if Jimmy turns into a HOF QB, there are absolutely no guarantees.
I second SMU's post, Darnold is very inconsistent, and hangs onto the ball way too much. I think he could use another year in college, mostly to see if he can get that under control, and partly to see him behind a OL that is more experienced and less injured. In 2016 he wasn't as skiddish in the pocket, but this season he had a couple games early where the line was terrible and it made him panic a bit too quickly throughout the season. His footwork outside the pocket is more to set up a QB run than to set up the throw, but sometimes he'll arm throw it anyway and it's often a terrible pass. He has to get over poor decision making.
He's also had 10 fumbles this season, some of that is hanging onto the ball too long, some is sloppy ballhandling (yesterday he fumbled under pressure, he palmed the ball with his arm stretched out, instead of tucking the ball, or holding it up high with his other hand covering). I'd also like to see his hand size.
Lamar Jackson also has 10 fumbles but he gets credited with fumbles on the ball transfer on read option plays (USC doesn't run read option very much). Jackson's got accuracy issues on intermediate passes but he also has a cannon with a quick release so if some offensively creative coach thinks they can harness that he's got a shot. He doesn't always get on top of the ball so it sails sometimes. He's also kinda skinny.
QB is always an important position so someone will probably reach, but I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting any QB in 2018 first round. All these guys have question marks and even the accurate guys like Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph need to clean up their footwork.
He's also had 10 fumbles this season, some of that is hanging onto the ball too long, some is sloppy ballhandling (yesterday he fumbled under pressure, he palmed the ball with his arm stretched out, instead of tucking the ball, or holding it up high with his other hand covering). I'd also like to see his hand size.
Lamar Jackson also has 10 fumbles but he gets credited with fumbles on the ball transfer on read option plays (USC doesn't run read option very much). Jackson's got accuracy issues on intermediate passes but he also has a cannon with a quick release so if some offensively creative coach thinks they can harness that he's got a shot. He doesn't always get on top of the ball so it sails sometimes. He's also kinda skinny.
QB is always an important position so someone will probably reach, but I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting any QB in 2018 first round. All these guys have question marks and even the accurate guys like Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph need to clean up their footwork.
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Your bar is admittedly high.
Here is a list of QBs ranked, by DVOA, QBR, and other criteria to date for 2017. Some interesting names in the 11 through 16 slots.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
Postscript ... the Sam Darnold of last night was the Sam Darnold of this year. Could use extra year.
Lamar Jackson — you’d better sit him if you draft him. He’ll get annihilated if he plays QB full time in the NFL next year. Mississippi State had him on a roasting spit today.
I said haven’t produced good QBs recently. Key was recently.
Quick edit: also I meant NFL QBs not college QBs. Landry Jones was a good college QB but not a pro caliber starter. USC has had a long line of good college QBs but their last good QB in the NFL was Palmer. Leinart and Sanchez never worked out as starters. Barkley was a disappointment in his final season at USC anyway. Maybe I was a bit hard on USC. One good to great QB and two nfl backups who started at one point is good for any program. USC though has a high bar. So we probably agree more than we disagree, PP.
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Yeah, Infield, like you I am not crazy about the top end QB prospects this year that I have seen and read about. The one guy I really like and have got to see quite a bit has his fair share of question marks, Mayfield. I want to know his measurables as well and his height and hand size. Interesting note on Darnold and fumbling, he’s good for about one of those per game so you wonder if it is a physical limitation like hand size playing a role there. Guess we will find out sooner rather than later because...
I think Darnold would benefit with another year at USC, but seems like he is going to jump ship. I don’t blame him if he does as someone is going to make him a wealthy man.
I think Darnold would benefit with another year at USC, but seems like he is going to jump ship. I don’t blame him if he does as someone is going to make him a wealthy man.
Love Mayfield.
And though I would not presume it, I also would not be surprised if the Pats eliminated him from consideration because of size. Period, end of story. Nothing personal, you’re great — but not for us.
In other words, the QB equivalent of cone times and “he likes his linebackers big.” Every year a few people make the good point here that relatively few people are draft worthy by the NEP.
Have no idea what their gatekeepers are for QB, but there is no reason to believe that they don’t have them, don’t adhere to them, and that this doesn’t significantly winnow the field.
And though I would not presume it, I also would not be surprised if the Pats eliminated him from consideration because of size. Period, end of story. Nothing personal, you’re great — but not for us.
In other words, the QB equivalent of cone times and “he likes his linebackers big.” Every year a few people make the good point here that relatively few people are draft worthy by the NEP.
Have no idea what their gatekeepers are for QB, but there is no reason to believe that they don’t have them, don’t adhere to them, and that this doesn’t significantly winnow the field.
The draft is fundamentally an exercise in small samples and narrowing it down to one position at one school reduces the sample size to meaninglessly small. The counter-example to this line of thinking is Aaron Rodgers. For years it was "Jeff Tedford can't produce a QB; all his QBs bust" until he produced an MVP and Super Bowl winner. I'm not scared off of Darnold because of what happened with Mark Sanchez nearly a decade ago or a bunch of not-good prospects also not working out. That way madness lies.
That said, if you're down on every QB prospect, you're going to be right more often than not. Benefit of being on the outside and not working for a team and actually having to pick one.
I like Mayfield but he's had some maturity issues, and some teams might write him off just for that.
It's interesting that two guys with great measurables, juniors Josh Allen (6'5" 233) and Drew Lock (6'4" 225) have kinda low pass % this season. Allen: 56.2, Lock: 57.8, and it's the highest for both. Allen's already declared, but maybe stay in school and get that % up to 60?
It's interesting that two guys with great measurables, juniors Josh Allen (6'5" 233) and Drew Lock (6'4" 225) have kinda low pass % this season. Allen: 56.2, Lock: 57.8, and it's the highest for both. Allen's already declared, but maybe stay in school and get that % up to 60?
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I’m not saying to not trust a USC QB because of Mark Sanchez, Barkley, or Leinart, just remarking, and casually at that, that the program has had a few disappointments in comparison to former stars and their expectations. It was just a small observation based on the USC football program. Really, I get it, being an NFL QB is hard. Being a backup QB is hard. USC has produced a lot of NFL QBs and backup QBs which is impressive. Predicting NFL QBs is hard. Matt Leinart has nothing to do with Mark Sanchez and he has nothing to do with how I feel about Darnold. Nothing I wrote in the things I saw involving him were related to USC either it was all Football performance related. Sorry for the poor comment, it was really just musing about USC Football and probably was not nuanced enough. Also, right, concluding sweeping conclusions from a sample size of Palmer, Leinart, Barkley, and Sanchez over 17 years is a small sample size and would be a horrible thing to do. I’m not trying to make that point either. Sorry for the confusion. I probably should have written that their QBs performed below their fans and boosters unrealistic and ridiculously high expectations which for USC are nationally known and for OU... well, I’m in Dallas and a fan of a shit college program so maybe I’m a little more snarky than I should be when it comes to them. I am probably as high on Bradford still though anyone I know. Still think he is a good QB just injury-prone to say the least.
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I love Darnold. He's playing behind an offensive line that has been a complete wreck, and for what has to be the single worst coaching staff of any top 15 team.
I'd buy stock in his NFL career over just about any other college QB right now. He can make the throws and showed last year that he has poise and accuracy. Get him in a good spot where he can develop under coaches who know what they're doing and his odds are good.
Of course, send him to Cleveland and look out below.
I'd buy stock in his NFL career over just about any other college QB right now. He can make the throws and showed last year that he has poise and accuracy. Get him in a good spot where he can develop under coaches who know what they're doing and his odds are good.
Of course, send him to Cleveland and look out below.
I don’t get what the fuss is about. They should just draft another HOF quarterback in the sixth again. That strategy has paid huge dividends and if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
My general feeling is that much of the reasoning behind the Hoyer deal was that it provided Belichick flexibility in finding his heir apparent to Brady. Clearly, finding QBs capable of winning Super Bowls outside of the first round doesn't happen every year and Belichick will be looking for the right value situation in which to strike. I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots had a high first round grade on Garoppolo when they took him. Although, they probably had a first or second on Mallett too.
I personally have identified Jarrett Stidham as a guy I feel the Patriots could have interest in if he ends up declaring.
Jarrett Stidham - Auburn
Still hasn't declared for the draft yet, but from what I have seen so far he seems like an interesting Patriots type of player. A guy that has faced some adversity in his career as he started out at Baylor and transferred after all the issues there surfaced. Won the starting job at Auburn this year and performed pretty well against very tough competition and posted some impressive victories (see wins over Alabama and Georgia, you know the 2 teams playing in the National Championship Game). He seems like a fairly accurate thrower with decent enough arm strength, but certainly not a finished product. He just seems like a guy that checks a lot of Patriots boxes: overcoming adversity, clutch play in big games, accurate passer, etc.
I think the combination of needing some additional development, his less than linear career, and his somewhat underwhelming stats and physical attributes could put him in one of those value draft positions Belichick is looking for.
Alabama Highlights:
Georgia Win Highlights:
Background:
I personally have identified Jarrett Stidham as a guy I feel the Patriots could have interest in if he ends up declaring.
Jarrett Stidham - Auburn
Still hasn't declared for the draft yet, but from what I have seen so far he seems like an interesting Patriots type of player. A guy that has faced some adversity in his career as he started out at Baylor and transferred after all the issues there surfaced. Won the starting job at Auburn this year and performed pretty well against very tough competition and posted some impressive victories (see wins over Alabama and Georgia, you know the 2 teams playing in the National Championship Game). He seems like a fairly accurate thrower with decent enough arm strength, but certainly not a finished product. He just seems like a guy that checks a lot of Patriots boxes: overcoming adversity, clutch play in big games, accurate passer, etc.
I think the combination of needing some additional development, his less than linear career, and his somewhat underwhelming stats and physical attributes could put him in one of those value draft positions Belichick is looking for.
Alabama Highlights:
Georgia Win Highlights:
Background:
Quick release, screen game, seems accurate enough, some touch passes and can drill it in there at least somewhat. What's your sense of which round he should project to, if he indeed declares? Most importantly...
Is he handsome?
Edit spelling
Is he handsome?
Edit spelling
Yeah, I like Stidham, tough runner, plays hard (maybe too hard, would like to see some slides), accurate especially with crossing routes. Also seems to pick up a playbook quickly since he started as a freshman at Baylor and in his first year at Auburn. Moves well in the pocket but will take off if there's an opening.
The only games I saw of his were Clemson, the two Georgia games and Bama. Clemson ate him alive but it was his first game so he should get some slack. He played much better as he season went on. He got happy feet a bit in the second Georgia game, but was smart with the ball, either throwing it away or taking sacks instead of forcing it. Georgia seemed to make much better adjustments than Auburn did going into the second game, so it's again hard to fault him too much.
The only games I saw of his were Clemson, the two Georgia games and Bama. Clemson ate him alive but it was his first game so he should get some slack. He played much better as he season went on. He got happy feet a bit in the second Georgia game, but was smart with the ball, either throwing it away or taking sacks instead of forcing it. Georgia seemed to make much better adjustments than Auburn did going into the second game, so it's again hard to fault him too much.
Far from an expert at this stuff and early in the process, but I would peg him in the round 2-4 range. I would guess if the Pats stand pat, he would definitely be on the board for the Garoppolo pick and likely to be there for their own second rounder.
This draft is likely to be a weird year for that second tier of QBs (Rudolph, Falk, Ferguson, Stidham) Everyone knows Brady was the 7th QB taken his year and he was pick 199. The 7th rated QB in 2018 might be off the board in the second round.
So Stidham, Clayton Thorson, and Will Grier are all returning, who were among the more interesting guys to consider to me. I think my list at this point, outside the top 4 (who I'm not actually all that crazy about) is basically Mike White, Riley Ferguson, and Kyle Lauletta, and admittedly, all of those guys are more likely to be Matt Guittierez than Jimmy G. White and Lauletta will be at the senior bowl, though, so that should be interesting.
On the other hand, those guys returning along with Patterson (Mich), Bryant (Clemson), and Herbert (ore) could make next year's class pretty loaded.
On the other hand, those guys returning along with Patterson (Mich), Bryant (Clemson), and Herbert (ore) could make next year's class pretty loaded.
Here's a quick little Senior Bowl recap on the QBs posted after a fun time down in Mobile...
https://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2018-nfl-draft/2018/01/26/going-ballistic-recapping-week-mobile/
Also, saw some of the Darnold chatter. As an extremely inebriated NFL insider told me down in Mobile, he's going first "because the other guys are assholes." So take that for what it's worth...
https://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2018-nfl-draft/2018/01/26/going-ballistic-recapping-week-mobile/
Also, saw some of the Darnold chatter. As an extremely inebriated NFL insider told me down in Mobile, he's going first "because the other guys are assholes." So take that for what it's worth...
I've mentioned Lauletta a couple times and have been pretty intrigued, although admittedly based on very limited information, so nice to see a positive write-up of him. Lauletta's father was QB at Navy in the 80's (I think while Steve Belichick was coaching there?), which makes for an interesting pats connection.
Lauletta had a great week. And the fact he jumped about 100 spots on Matt Miller’s latest big board speaks to that...
Also (and I hate to be that guy promoting his own stuff but it’s on topic) I’m doing a podcast series for WGR Radio in Buffalo about the draft QBs. It has a Bills’ focus but we break down QBs, usually with a pretty good guest. It’s called Intentional Scouting and we’ve got four episodes up, recording Lamar Jackson’s tonight.
http://www.wgr550.com/articles/opinion/intentional-scouting-baker-mayfield
http://www.wgr550.com/articles/opinion/intentional-scouting-baker-mayfield
Super Nomario said it in an earlier thread but if you want to be right about a higher percentage of draft QB predictions pick: bust. That being said I like the QB prospects this year much more than in the last 2.
By the time the Pats pick Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, and probably Allen will be off the table. That still leaves Jackson and Lauletta. Lauletta to the Pats is getting some buzz. This is a year where there is more top end QB talent so it is possible that some will drop.
If Allen, Jackson, or Lauletta is there at 31 do you pull the trigger? At 43? I think Lauletta at 31 is too rich and Jackson and Allen are guys that make me nervous because there is a lot to work on with them but they would have the luxury of working behind this offense for 1-3 years (we think) before having a chance to start. BB says he'd rather be a year early than late and with two guys who could benefit from not starting right away that seems like an unpopular option to fans but something that might materialize.
Obviously you'd balance that with future needs of the team and development. Then again would the Pats get a chance to draft a guy like an Allen in the next 2-3 years?
Personally I wouldn't pull the trigger on any QB with the first round pick because I think they need to target someone on defense there not just to fill an immediate need but to build up the pipeline. But if Josh Allen is sitting there at 31, and that's a big if, I am glad I only get to make decisions in the Salty Snack industry.
Quick edit: I did not get a chance to listen to the Jackson podcast last night but he's a guy who I have only seen in limited action. Also, yeah if Josh Rosen fell to 31... you draft him but that's not happening. When I say I don't pull the trigger at 31 I mean for the prospects I think it is reasonable to assume won't make it to 31.
By the time the Pats pick Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, and probably Allen will be off the table. That still leaves Jackson and Lauletta. Lauletta to the Pats is getting some buzz. This is a year where there is more top end QB talent so it is possible that some will drop.
If Allen, Jackson, or Lauletta is there at 31 do you pull the trigger? At 43? I think Lauletta at 31 is too rich and Jackson and Allen are guys that make me nervous because there is a lot to work on with them but they would have the luxury of working behind this offense for 1-3 years (we think) before having a chance to start. BB says he'd rather be a year early than late and with two guys who could benefit from not starting right away that seems like an unpopular option to fans but something that might materialize.
Obviously you'd balance that with future needs of the team and development. Then again would the Pats get a chance to draft a guy like an Allen in the next 2-3 years?
Personally I wouldn't pull the trigger on any QB with the first round pick because I think they need to target someone on defense there not just to fill an immediate need but to build up the pipeline. But if Josh Allen is sitting there at 31, and that's a big if, I am glad I only get to make decisions in the Salty Snack industry.
Quick edit: I did not get a chance to listen to the Jackson podcast last night but he's a guy who I have only seen in limited action. Also, yeah if Josh Rosen fell to 31... you draft him but that's not happening. When I say I don't pull the trigger at 31 I mean for the prospects I think it is reasonable to assume won't make it to 31.
If you believe strongly enough in someone at QB it could be advantageous to pick him at 31 rather than 43 for the value of the 5th year option, no?
I would like to step back.
What should we be looking for in a QB prospect?
Intelligence?
Quick release?
Accuracy?
Arm Strength?
Production?
Pro Style offense?
Leadership?
Mobility?
Athleticism?
Intangibles/Calm eyes?
The easy answer is "Yes", but realistically we are not going to be in a position to draft someone who checks all those blocks. (and guys who check ALL those blocks dont exist...at least not day 1).
So what are the top three attributes they should look for in a QB prospect and who matches up to those attributes?
What should we be looking for in a QB prospect?
Intelligence?
Quick release?
Accuracy?
Arm Strength?
Production?
Pro Style offense?
Leadership?
Mobility?
Athleticism?
Intangibles/Calm eyes?
The easy answer is "Yes", but realistically we are not going to be in a position to draft someone who checks all those blocks. (and guys who check ALL those blocks dont exist...at least not day 1).
So what are the top three attributes they should look for in a QB prospect and who matches up to those attributes?
I have only an anecdotal impression that RPO-like offenses are gaining favor. Is that possibly in the cards for a future Patriots' offense. Certainly not in Josh's current system, but I wonder.
Accuracy
Intelligence
Processing Speed
IMO those are the top three generally, and with respect to what NE values in a QB, and what they need to run their offense.
Once you get past the big five (Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield and Jackson) I think the guys in the next bucket with those traits are Lauletta, White and Falk, in that order.
EDIT: Forgot Rudolph. But slide him in that mix with Lauletta and company. I'd tier him after Lauletta and White tbh, but others probably differ on that.
Intelligence
Processing Speed
IMO those are the top three generally, and with respect to what NE values in a QB, and what they need to run their offense.
Once you get past the big five (Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield and Jackson) I think the guys in the next bucket with those traits are Lauletta, White and Falk, in that order.
EDIT: Forgot Rudolph. But slide him in that mix with Lauletta and company. I'd tier him after Lauletta and White tbh, but others probably differ on that.
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Not yet. I'll move it when we get closer to the draft season and folks are more willing/looking to visit the subforum.
I've watched a little bit of Logan Woodside and I like him a lot. Obviously not as early as some of the others being mentioned, but if we were to wait a bit, i think he has potential
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/kyle-lauletta?id=2559882
Lock the thread.
BTW thanks Mascho for the feedback.
Questions about arm strength are generally not.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/kyle-lauletta?id=2559882
How many minds did the Senior Bowl change?
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/kyle-lauletta?id=2559882
How many minds did the Senior Bowl change?
Is it based in a city? Maalox might watch and then insist he doesn't.
Going into Mobile arm strength was something I was looking to evaluate in person, because it looked sufficient for FCS play but I wasn't sure he could function against better competition. He answered that question. His arm is good enough to run an NFL offense, particularly New England's. IMO it's more a scheme issue. He wouldn't be the ideal quarterback to run a downfield/Coryell type of offense but he can make 95% or so of the throws NE would ask him to be making just fine. Plus, what Lance doesn't mention in his writeup is his anticipation. He's far ahead of most other quarterbacks in this group - which gets us to processing speed - and that is the great equalizer.
He's not a UDFA. For example McShay has him as QB8 right now, behind the Big Five, Rudolph and Falk. I'll have him above Falk, but yeah, that puts him in the Day 2 mix.
Many pundits also had JG as a Day 2 candidate. NFLDraftScout.com had him #6:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=107638&draftyear=2014&genpos=QB
I listened to Mark's take on Intentional Scouting and Locked On Patriots talk about Jackson and then watched some of his tape from 2016 and 2017. He was a guy along with Josh Allan who was being discussed after last year as guys to watch this year.
Before I get into what I saw I'd note that against teams like NC State Louisville's offensive line struggled and that clearly impacted Jackson. Also, he dropped a few balls into buckets down the field for his receivers and they flat out dropped them multiple times. Drops were an issue for his receivers this year.
Jackson made a transition from his style of play last year to this year. Last year he would make a lot of one or two reads and run, or look to run if the defense gave him a favorable look. When he scrambled last year he would still make throws on the run and look to his receivers but he was more likely to keep it and go. It's fun to watch the runs too - they are excited giggle worthy. If you want to make Mike Vick comparisons I think his 2016 tape is more Vickish. In 2017, and Mark talks about this, Jackson stayed in the pocket longer, made full progressions, looked to throw on the run. He began his transition into becoming a complete QB.
His 2017 tape against FSU (yes they had a down year) exhibits his growth as a player.
Dedication to the pass:
Against FSU, 4th and 5 he hangs in the pocket until just before the pressure arrived but it was incomplete. I believe he could have scrambled to his left.
On a 2nd and 3 he shuffles to the sideline and flips a pass for the first down.
Consistently making multiple reads.
Timing/Anticipation:
He isn't the most consistent here and I think that's the biggest struggle adjusting for him. He has it though - and given his path it makes sense he isn't as good as others here.
Touch/Accuracy:
Yes he occasionally can sail a ball or be a little behind/ahead a receiver but he was accurate to all levels of the field. His deep touch was outstanding even 40-50 yards downfield. The drops on his deep balls were tragic. He also threw with different touches - he has good velocity on his fast ball but can adjust speeds and arc depending on the throw and route. Room for more development but he has the tools.
His legs will dazzle you - that's still there.
There are a few elements here that intrigue me about him and the Patriots. Mark notes that Jackson ran an Erhardt-Perkins offense at LSU (Bobby Petrino). Similarity, Patriots. He is a guy who has a high ceiling because of his athleticism, tools, mental decision making, and use as a runner. He could benefit from developing for 2-3 years though and complete his transition. This years draft is another factor and where I am still gathering evidence to have a better opinion on it but from what I can tell the top end of the pool is shallow with a lot of talent available in rounds 2-4. So if the difference in talent and upgrade to the roster isn't that much between 31 and 43 with Jackson's ceiling I would be ok if they pulled the trigger there.
I think with Allen there are more question marks for me and I would not take him at 31. But if Lamar Jackson is available and the Patriots think he can be their next guy? Sign me up. If they want to go a different direction I'll grab my bib and drool over that guy then.
Edit: draft pick correction.
Before I get into what I saw I'd note that against teams like NC State Louisville's offensive line struggled and that clearly impacted Jackson. Also, he dropped a few balls into buckets down the field for his receivers and they flat out dropped them multiple times. Drops were an issue for his receivers this year.
Jackson made a transition from his style of play last year to this year. Last year he would make a lot of one or two reads and run, or look to run if the defense gave him a favorable look. When he scrambled last year he would still make throws on the run and look to his receivers but he was more likely to keep it and go. It's fun to watch the runs too - they are excited giggle worthy. If you want to make Mike Vick comparisons I think his 2016 tape is more Vickish. In 2017, and Mark talks about this, Jackson stayed in the pocket longer, made full progressions, looked to throw on the run. He began his transition into becoming a complete QB.
His 2017 tape against FSU (yes they had a down year) exhibits his growth as a player.
Dedication to the pass:
Against FSU, 4th and 5 he hangs in the pocket until just before the pressure arrived but it was incomplete. I believe he could have scrambled to his left.
On a 2nd and 3 he shuffles to the sideline and flips a pass for the first down.
Consistently making multiple reads.
Timing/Anticipation:
He isn't the most consistent here and I think that's the biggest struggle adjusting for him. He has it though - and given his path it makes sense he isn't as good as others here.
Touch/Accuracy:
Yes he occasionally can sail a ball or be a little behind/ahead a receiver but he was accurate to all levels of the field. His deep touch was outstanding even 40-50 yards downfield. The drops on his deep balls were tragic. He also threw with different touches - he has good velocity on his fast ball but can adjust speeds and arc depending on the throw and route. Room for more development but he has the tools.
His legs will dazzle you - that's still there.
There are a few elements here that intrigue me about him and the Patriots. Mark notes that Jackson ran an Erhardt-Perkins offense at LSU (Bobby Petrino). Similarity, Patriots. He is a guy who has a high ceiling because of his athleticism, tools, mental decision making, and use as a runner. He could benefit from developing for 2-3 years though and complete his transition. This years draft is another factor and where I am still gathering evidence to have a better opinion on it but from what I can tell the top end of the pool is shallow with a lot of talent available in rounds 2-4. So if the difference in talent and upgrade to the roster isn't that much between 31 and 43 with Jackson's ceiling I would be ok if they pulled the trigger there.
I think with Allen there are more question marks for me and I would not take him at 31. But if Lamar Jackson is available and the Patriots think he can be their next guy? Sign me up. If they want to go a different direction I'll grab my bib and drool over that guy then.
Edit: draft pick correction.
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Nick Caserio speaks at MIT on resetting the roster and the importance of role players in the organization.
Scar is back!
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4811749/nick-caserio-at-mit-sloan-analytics-conference-james-white-a-role-model
Scar is back!
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4811749/nick-caserio-at-mit-sloan-analytics-conference-james-white-a-role-model
Thanks. Question and an observation.
Driving around the other day, I heard that Lamar was not overly victimized by drops relative to the other QBs who are projected as top tier. Is that right?
Josh Allen is really polarizing. Even putting aside Mel Kiper has him going 1 to Cleveland, and others are very doubtful, blah-blah-blah.
Local radio guy and former TE, Chris Cooley, is really into a film. He is a serious student of the game and offense in particular. Couple months back he was really high on Allen, and he regurgitated the "look who he has to play with" arguments and so forth. After some detailed study of the film, Cooley is shaken. Not abandoning him, but recognizes very high bust potential, even beyond the normal. And this is not based on Senior Bowl stuff.
Separately, I've seen Allen compared to Chris Redmond, which if accurate is an excursion ticket to being out of the NFL in 2 or 3 years.