2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

Stitch01

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The issue with DVOA (and really, any rate stat) when it comes to the Patriots running game is that they are a gameplan team that runs a lot in advantageous matchups and does not run in disadvantageous matchups. So when they play the Ravens, they might run the ball 10 times and throw it 50; against the Colts, they run the ball 40 times and throw 20. It looks like they're awesome running the ball because the overall efficiency is very good, but the numbers are skewed because they don't run against teams when they can't.

There is something of that effect going on this year - they ran for 190+ yards in both meetings with the Bills, who were 31st in rushing defense DVOA, but I think you're right and they've shown more ability to run against top Ds. They went 29 for 99 against Denver (#2 rush D DVOA), 19 for 80 against Carolina (#6), 25 for 118 and 38 for 147 in two meetings with the Jets (#11), and most recently, 27 for 102 vs the Titans (#7). So they've run the ball fairly often and with reasonable effectiveness against just about anybody.
Yeah, that's why I said DVOA typically overrates the Patriots running game. It also cant separate the fact out that teams have to defend Tom Brady. But they rarely lose yardage, they are somewhat effective in power situations, and Lewis ranks as one of the best backs in the league by elusiveness, yards after contact, etc. They aren't really a pass happy team anymore (less run heavy than last year, but middle of the pack for run/pass ratio. As you point out they've run reasonably effectively against good rushing defenses. Id find it hard to make the case the Pats arent a good running team. I dont think they're the best run offense in the league or anything, but they're pretty good.
 

DJnVa

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IN the on field sense of it, it doesn't matter if DVOA overestimates the Pats RBs. All that matters on the field is that if it's 3rd and 4, and they hand off to Lewis, he gets 5. If it's because they had to respect Brady's play fake, that doesn't matter.

So, if someone wants to knock Lewis down the list of good RBs that's fine (because I guess Le'Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, etc. don't also benefit from good QBs) but as far as ACTUAL PRODUCTION in the game, the Pats running game is far from mediocre. And that's what matters on Sunday.
 

Reverend

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Why are they wearing long sleeves? What else are they covering up??
 

Marciano490

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I think the fact that he can fit a tight glove over a hurt hand is a good sign. Also, Hoyer is wearing a glove.

Plus, I wore gloves today, and my hands are fine.
 

Captaincoop

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Here comes the line movement - down to 8.5 this morning.

If you don't think there's anything to see here, this is going to become a good gambling opportunity.
 

Stitch01

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Didnt go through a key number, but line moved from -9.5 to 8. Which means books are somewhat OK with a teaser which is....interesting.
 

Marciano490

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So, Gisele gave him the "dolphin" a couple nights before a big game and now his thumb is messed up.
 

drbretto

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I understand the reasons for concern, but his glove looking bulky and him not throwing when he doesn't really need to be doesn't necessarily mean anything. If part of it is cutting his hand, then that's a bandage under the glove, and why throw when you can give it a couple of days to rest?
 

Ferm Sheller

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Zo saying that while Brady at practice, he was not seen throwing.
I'd be interested in knowing whether Hoyer was seen throwing. If not, perhaps it's true that the media only got to see a non-throwing portion of the practice.
 

jsinger121

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I'd be interested in knowing whether Hoyer was seen throwing. If not, perhaps it's true that the media only got to see a non-throwing portion of the practice.

Media wasn't there for the throwing portion. They were doing stretching and running and then they were gone.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Looks like a brace on the thumb under the glove, right? That means something, but no way to know if it's largely precautionary or sign of a real issue.

Just wait until BB signs a QB to the practice squad, or perhaps even the active roster...then the line will really move (or just go off the board, most likely)
 

DJnVa

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That glove looks tighter than the one OJ tried to put on. How bad can it be if he's forcing his hand into that thing?
 

jablo1312

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Sep 20, 2005
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It was reported he hurt a finger. There's at least circumstantial evidence that it was his thumb. Full blown panic isn't necessary, but waving it off as nothing seems a little too rose colored to me.
 

Investor 11

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Looks like a brace on the thumb under the glove, right? That means something, but no way to know if it's largely precautionary or sign of a real issue.

Just wait until BB signs a QB to the practice squad, or perhaps even the active roster...then the line will really move (or just go off the board, most likely)
I was thinking it almost looked like white gauze or medical tape coming out from the bottom of the glove.
 

Marciano490

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It was reported he hurt a finger. There's at least circumstantial evidence that it was his thumb. Full blown panic isn't necessary, but waving it off as nothing seems a little too rose colored to me.
Is a thumb a finger, a finger a thumb?
 

Captaincoop

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Didnt go through a key number, but line moved from -9.5 to 8. Which means books are somewhat OK with a teaser which is....interesting.
The public is heavily on Jacksonville so far, and the money seems almost dead even on the NFC side. Vegas probably needs to move to balance that out and figures that all* the teasers will include the Pats, while they will be split on the other game.

*edit: not all...most
 

DJnVa

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It was reported he hurt a finger. There's at least circumstantial evidence that it was his thumb. Full blown panic isn't necessary, but waving it off as nothing seems a little too rose colored to me.
Actually, wasn't it reported he hurt his hand, and not a finger?
 

Ed Hillel

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That glove looks tighter than the one OJ tried to put on. How bad can it be if he's forcing his hand into that thing?
That glove looks like it’s a size too big in order to fit it on. Look at the ends, his fingers don’t reach.

I’d guess jammed thumb, but it doesn’t look particularly swollen. I would think by Sunday it should be fine.
 

Stitch01

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The public is heavily on Jacksonville so far, and the money seems almost dead even on the NFC side. Vegas probably needs to move to balance that out and figures that all* the teasers will include the Pats, while they will be split on the other game.

*edit: not all...most
Teaser where they get middled on 7 and 3 doesnt really balance out Jags money (and I dont think Jags/Pats money ends up that unbalanced)
 

Marciano490

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This thread is such a delightful combination of amateur medical diagnosis and sartorial analysis. Well done, everyone.
 

RedOctober3829

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The throwing hand thumb is the worst finger to hurt as a QB. It really affects the grip, velocity, and direction of the football. Judging by the picture, he's got it heavily taped or splinted. Luckily, they've got the better part of 3-4 days to get the swelling down with ice and medication. As long as it isn't broken or a torn ligament, I think he'll be fine. If it's either of those two, then it's definitely not good. Remember Jacoby Brissett vs Houston last year?
 

Reverend

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The throwing hand thumb is the worst finger to hurt as a QB. It really affects the grip, velocity, and direction of the football. Judging by the picture, he's got it heavily taped or splinted. Luckily, they've got the better part of 3-4 days to get the swelling down with ice and medication. As long as it isn't broken or a torn ligament, I think he'll be fine. If it's either of those two, then it's definitely not good. Remember Jacoby Brissett vs Houston last year?
Is it too late to bleed the thumb and let the bad humors out?
 

Marciano490

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That exact glove on the Internet does not have stripes on the nail side of the thumb. Seems like they added a new part to the glove specially for Brady.
Is this like that special edition pompom hat he had last year that everyone wanted?

Maybe he did have a concussion :(