2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Excellent defenses left in the four-team field.

Min: #1 points (15.8) #1 yards
Jax: #2 points (16.8), #2 yards
Phi: #4 points (18.4), #4 yards
NE: #5 points (18.5), #29 yards

Four of the top 5 defenses, as measured by points allowed, are in the championship games next week. And New England's defensive numbers are even better when you start from week 5 til now - they've got the #1 scoring defense from week 5 through the end of the season. (14.0 per game)
 

genoasalami

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gfs_t2m_b_boston_26.png While six day forecasts in New England are generally a crap shoot, there are some things you can take from the predicted upper air pattern which can be reasonably forecasted a week out. I don't see any signs of Arctic chill in the east. GFS model above is forecasting temps in southern New England to be in the 40°s at game time. Will be adjustments in the days ahead, but serious cold and precipitation seems unlikely.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
Recency and SSS makes football such a challenge to predict, but a few things from Jacksonville's season seem worthy of highlighting (even if this is also a bit of cherry picking):


1. Maybe Pittsburgh -- who played an amazingly soft schedule this year, and barely won a bunch of games vs. non-playoff teams -- was not that good all along but played their best game vs. the Pats in the regular season. They got up for that game, and it made the space between them and NE seem smaller than it really was. So Jax beat them twice. Maybe not much to see there.

2. Jax still just scored only 10 vs. Buffalo. Again, maybe Pittsburgh is not that good.

3. In the regular season Jax won ten games this year, nine vs. non-playoff teams, one vs. Pittsburgh.

4. While they did not play a ton of playoff teams, JAX only scored above 17 once in a game vs. a playoff team (again, Pitt).

5. In Jax's six RS losses (Jets, Titans (twice),Rams, Cardinals, 49ers) they gave up 23, 37, 15, 27, 27 44 against a motley crew of QBs. The 15 against the Titans looks like their strongest loss, defensively, but it was a garbage time game in week 17.

6. Jax was 4-4 on the road and their four road wins were against The Colts, Texans, Browns and (again) Pittsburgh.


Their point differential is clearly solid, and it is sure helps my case to dismiss the Steelers, but a ton of their strength seems to be wrapped up in beating the Steelers and shutting down a bunch of middling teams that did not make the playoffs.
 

RedOctober3829

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Interesting take by Evan Lazar. He says to look at Week 16 at SF with how the 49ers and Jimmy G attacked the Jacksonville defense.


If you want a good indicator of how the #Patriots might attack this #Jaguars D go watch them play Jimmy G and the #49ers in Week 16. SF opened up the MOF with play calling and worked the underneath stuff with their quick receivers. A lot of slants, outs, flat routes.


They stretched the #Jaguars out horizontally and were able to find holes in their zones over the middle or beat man coverage with quick option routes. Plus, Kyle had a few great bootleg designs thrown in there as well. #49ers offense is awesome to watch.
 

Al Zarilla

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Interesting take by Evan Lazar. He says to look at Week 16 at SF with how the 49ers and Jimmy G attacked the Jacksonville defense.


If you want a good indicator of how the #Patriots might attack this #Jaguars D go watch them play Jimmy G and the #49ers in Week 16. SF opened up the MOF with play calling and worked the underneath stuff with their quick receivers. A lot of slants, outs, flat routes.


They stretched the #Jaguars out horizontally and were able to find holes in their zones over the middle or beat man coverage with quick option routes. Plus, Kyle had a few great bootleg designs thrown in there as well. #49ers offense is awesome to watch.
I thought the Jags may have rested a lot of guys that day but looking at some snap counts, the defensive backfield guys and Calais Campbell, for example, did have high snap counts. What intensity they played with though, who knows. You can look up whoever you want, here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201712240sfo.htm
 

Saints Rest

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Interesting take by Evan Lazar. He says to look at Week 16 at SF with how the 49ers and Jimmy G attacked the Jacksonville defense.


If you want a good indicator of how the #Patriots might attack this #Jaguars D go watch them play Jimmy G and the #49ers in Week 16. SF opened up the MOF with play calling and worked the underneath stuff with their quick receivers. A lot of slants, outs, flat routes.


They stretched the #Jaguars out horizontally and were able to find holes in their zones over the middle or beat man coverage with quick option routes. Plus, Kyle had a few great bootleg designs thrown in there as well. #49ers offense is awesome to watch.
Bedard on BSJ was expounding the same idea but referencing how the Pats attacked the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
 

DJnVa

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David Carr on NFL Network said the Jags match up even better with the Patriots than they do the Steelers because the Patriots don't have the skill guys like Antonio Brown.

That was his analysis. That was why it's a better matchup.

I see why he didn't pan out.
 

pokey_reese

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David Carr on NFL Network said the Jags match up even better with the Patriots than they do the Steelers because the Patriots don't have the skill guys like Antonio Brown.

That was his analysis. That was why it's a better matchup.

I see why he didn't pan out.
From his Wikipedia page:
In 2015, Carr became offensive coordinator at Bakersfield Christian High School, under head coach and younger brother Darren Carr.
Ouch. As if falling all the way to high school coaching isn't bad enough, to actually just be a HS coordinator is even worse, and being under your younger brother is just the icing on the cake.
 

luckiestman

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David Carr on NFL Network said the Jags match up even better with the Patriots than they do the Steelers because the Patriots don't have the skill guys like Antonio Brown.

That was his analysis. That was why it's a better matchup.

I see why he didn't pan out.

I think the Jax D does match up better against NE but I don’t see any way for the Jags offense to score enough to win.

Jags have to hit Brady and turn him over to have a chance. Be interesting to see how Pats do coming off a two week bye. Heard they played a scrimmage to keep fresh.
 

Ed Hillel

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Jags have to hit Brady and turn him over to have a chance. Be interesting to see how Pats do coming off a two week bye. Heard they played a scrimmage to keep fresh.
Isn’t that precisely why Jax doesn’t match up better against New England than Pitt? Ben turned the ball over 7 times in two games against Jacksonville, I don’t see Brady doing near that.

I also think the Jags are most vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is where New England excels.
 

Sportsbstn

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Isn’t that precisely why Jax doesn’t match up better against New England than Pitt? Ben turned the ball over 7 times in two games against Jacksonville, I don’t see Brady doing near that.

I also think the Jags are most vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is where New England excels.
Yes the Jags are poor at covering running backs and did a poor job with a nobody tight end yesterday. They don’t have Brown, but they have the best trigger man in the history of the game and will come in as healthy on offense as they have been almost all season. Hogan, Cooks, Amendola, Gronk, Lewis, Burkhead, White and perhaps Mitchell. The Jags defense allowing 40+ points to Jimmy G and Roethlisberger aren’t just a fluke. Patriots were the #1 offense in football this season with big injuries much of the way. Now they are back to as close to full health, the death star is powering up.
 

nattysez

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I think this will be a game where having Cooks really comes in handy. Forcing them to have one of their All-Pro corners chasing Cooks all game as he runs one deep route after another will be helpful for purposes of further softening up the middle-of-the-field D for Gronk, Lewis, Burkhead, Amendola, etc.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think this will be a game where having Cooks really comes in handy. Forcing them to have one of their All-Pro corners chasing Cooks all game as he runs one deep route after another will be helpful for purposes of further softening up the middle-of-the-field D for Gronk, Lewis, Burkhead, Amendola, etc.
I was thinking the same thing. We might even see Cooks/Dorsett both going deep and drawing a DB/S with them. And then hopefully Jax falls asleep at some point and Brady can connect on a long one.
 

steveluck7

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Ok, I took the bait and clicked the Shaughnessy article. Got as far as his hypothetical NCAA Final Four which was
That’s like an NCAA men’s basketball Final Four of UMBC, Southern Utah, Grant State, Ball State … and Kentucky.
Yep... Shanks tomato can Final Four includes 5 teams
 

SamCassellsStones

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This should be a good matchup, and I'm particularly interested to see how Belichick/Brady/McDaniels go about attacking the Jax defense. I think the between-the-tackles running game, a particular strength lately, with Lewis could be a focus (at least early), neutralizing the pass rush and hopefully minimizing the likelihood of sacks/turnovers (which is probably how Jax wins this game).

Bortles is just so tough to figure out -- If we see Bills Bortles, its probably over by the third quarter. If we see Pitt Bortles (or at least first/fourth quarter Pitt Bortles), it's anyone's game.

Also, just generally speaking, I'm glad we're going to see Jax instead of Pitt -- for some reason I'm finding myself not particularly nervous about this game (which is unusual for me, and could change as the week goes by). Can't really say why, and certainly not because I'm overly confident of winning (I think it'll be close). I guess losing to Jax wouldn't suck as much as losing to Pitt.
 

BaseballJones

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So fucking transparent. Set them up as the prohibitive Goliath, taking all the credit if they win and rolling around in all the poop he’s creating if they don’t.
I love this line: "That’s like an NCAA men’s basketball Final Four of UMBC, Southern Utah, Grant State, Ball State … and Kentucky."

Final Four
1. UMBC
2. Southern Utah
3. Grant State
4. Ball State
5. Kentucky
 

Bongorific

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I think this will be a game where having Cooks really comes in handy. Forcing them to have one of their All-Pro corners chasing Cooks all game as he runs one deep route after another will be helpful for purposes of further softening up the middle-of-the-field D for Gronk, Lewis, Burkhead, Amendola, etc.
There will be a big benefit of all the weapons, but it could end up benefiting Hogan more than Cooks. Ramsey on Gronk a lot, the smaller Bouye on Cooks with some safety help, giving Hogan lots of single coverage probably by Aaron Colvin. Jags corners were playing sides early in the year, not surprising with a young Ramsey. But lately they've been shadowing, usually based on size and matchup.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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I'll be honest, I don't know much about the Jag's tendencies on D, more about the names as they have a few guys I was hoping to see settle down in NE - Campbell and Smith. Probably not as nervous as I should be about this game, it appears to be Tenn gameplan 2.0 to me. However, I am very interested to see how the Pat's attack this D and have some trepidation that this may be the game that the problems created by not having JE manifest themselves. All that being said, I am a firm believer that Pitt had a vastly overrated D that was covered by their schedule and talent level on the offensive side of the ball. Give BB and JMcD + TB a week to put together a game plan to score 21+ points and I think they're good.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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So fucking transparent. Set them up as the prohibitive Goliath, taking all the credit if they win and rolling around in all the poop he’s creating if they don’t.
Well, he's right. I was dying for KC to lose. I wanted Pitt to lose. Jags and Titans should not be contenders with the Patriots, especially in the AFC Championship game at home. This should be a comfortable win. Period.

Now we just need Nick Foles to win this weekend, and...Well, that's one of the softest playoff runs the Patriots will have gone through. Them the facts.
 

Koufax

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He took the same approach to Tennessee, and he was right there. Sometimes a tomato can is just a tomato can.
 

dcmissle

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Well, he's right. I was dying for KC to lose. I wanted Pitt to lose. Jags and Titans should not be contenders with the Patriots, especially in the AFC Championship game at home. This should be a comfortable win. Period.

Now we just need Nick Foles to win this weekend, and...Well, that's one of the softest playoff runs the Patriots will have gone through. Them the facts.
Still a tired old game. What staz said, plus this get CHB on Jax radio, where he repeats tomato can and says Pats are not good
 

BigSoxFan

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I'll be honest, I don't know much about the Jag's tendencies on D, more about the names as they have a few guys I was hoping to see settle down in NE - Campbell and Smith. Probably not as nervous as I should be about this game, it appears to be Tenn gameplan 2.0 to me. However, I am very interested to see how the Pat's attack this D and have some trepidation that this may be the game that the problems created by not having JE manifest themselves. All that being said, I am a firm believer that Pitt had a vastly overrated D that was covered by their schedule and talent level on the offensive side of the ball. Give BB and JMcD + TB a week to put together a game plan to score 21+ points and I think they're good.
Based on watching them a decent amount for fantasy purposes, this is what I’ve seen:

1. DL is as good as advertised. 55 sacks in regular season (2nd only to PIT) and Calais Campbell is capable of being a one man wrecking crew. But he’s far from the only guy you need to worry about. Ngakoue had 12 sacks and Jackson/Fowler both had 8. Dareus isn’t what he was in Buffalo but is still a solid force in the middle. The OL is really going to have to play well on Sunday.

2. The secondary is really good in man coverage. When you have AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, that’s to be expected. Per the broadcast, Bouye didn’t give up a single TD in the regular season (but Brown got him twice). Ramsey is very physical and really gets after WRs. He has Butler’s temperament with much better physical tools - just a flat out stud. Church and Gipson are a solid and experienced safety tandem but I think they’re exploitable.

3. LBs are also really good! Telvin Smith is always around the ball and has a knack for making big plays, almost Bruschi-esque. He led the team in tackles and tackles for loss. Also had 5 PD and 3 INT. Myles Jack is a rangy LB who moves and tackles well. However, I think Gronk will be able to make plays if he’s the guy tasked with stopping him. Posluszny is still a solid run stuffing LB.

All in all, there is quite a lot of talent here. I think Belichick would go nuts with a unit like this. With that said, they are a very emotional group and are prone to losing focus from time to time. Pit made some really nice plays but they didn’t have any issues moving the ball on them. Jimmy completely torched them in Week 16.

As many have already said, I think the plan here is the work the up tempo game and running game and then pick your spots looking for big plays in the passing game. If the Pats stubbornly go too heavy with the vertical passing game like SB42, I see a lot of pressure on Brady and multiple sacks with a couple turnovers. Fortunately, I think we learned our lesson there.

Instead, I think we’ll work the quick passing game, get the RBs out in space, and hammer the middle of the field. Cooks may not get even 3 catches. I think his job will be to run deep routes all day to tie up one of their corners and a safety on some plays to give Gronk/Amendola/Hogan plenty of room over the middle of the field. Even though the Steelers put up 42 on them, I don’t think we’ll get to 30. My guess is somewhere in the 23-27 range, which should be enough at home against Bortles. But I anticipate a tighter game than the line suggests.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Still a tired old game. What staz said, plus this get CHB on Jax radio, where he repeats tomato can and says Pats are not good
Well, it's boy cries wolf for CHB. The other playoff runs may have run into some lucky breaks, but that's true almost every year when you make it to the later rounds.

This year, though? I mean, the Titans game was a -13.5 spread, and the Jags opened at -9.5. They probably open up as 4-5 point favorites over Minnesota, and 7 over Philly. Its ok that things broke right for them in the playoffs this year. They still need to execute, and it shouldn't detract from the victory. And to do it all without their best WR and best front 7 player? It's remarkable.

*Knock on wood, and all that jazz.*
 

lambeau

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n addition to the offense getting almost everybody back, the evolution of the defensive front is fascinating.
Only Trey Flowers played >50% snaps against the Titans. This has got to help in the fourth quarter.I
Rotating while playing at a high level for 35-45% snaps and staying fresh were Harrison, Wise, Guy, Butler, Brown, and Jean-Francois. Branch is presumably at this point a healthy scratch who can pride further depth.
Five of these guys are new this year--no wonder it took a while to develop.
 

InstaFace

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He took the same approach to Tennessee, and he was right there. Sometimes a tomato can is just a tomato can.
The stats backed him with Tennessee.

Point differential says the Jags, however, are the Pats' peer. That, and the fact that they just effectively handled a team that we all recognize could easily have beaten us, should give us caution.

On the other hand, recency-weighted DVOA says the Pats are #1, and the Jags 10th. On the third hand, that same metric put the Browns one spot ahead of the Buffalo Bills, so I won't tell you it's a conversation-ender.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Thanks. Very insightful. I think there are two groups of rational fans, and one group of tomato can fans right now. Overall, on the fence about the Pats covering, but feel pretty good (now I am scared) about them straight up. Early lead will be huge, make Bortles beat you and by the late 3rd Q I can see the defense becoming very frustrated that their hopes are tied to Bortles' arm.

Based on watching them a decent amount for fantasy purposes, this is what I’ve seen:

1. DL is as good as advertised. 55 sacks in regular season (2nd only to PIT) and Calais Campbell is capable of being a one man wrecking crew. But he’s far from the only guy you need to worry about. Ngakoue had 12 sacks and Jackson/Fowler both had 8. Dareus isn’t what he was in Buffalo but is still a solid force in the middle. The OL is really going to have to play well on Sunday.

2. The secondary is really good in man coverage. When you have AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, that’s to be expected. Per the broadcast, Bouye didn’t give up a single TD in the regular season (but Brown got him twice). Ramsey is very physical and really gets after WRs. He has Butler’s temperament with much better physical tools - just a flat out stud. Church and Gipson are a solid and experienced safety tandem but I think they’re exploitable.

3. LBs are also really good! Telvin Smith is always around the ball and has a knack for making big plays, almost Bruschi-esque. He led the team in tackles and tackles for loss. Also had 5 PD and 3 INT. Myles Jack is a rangy LB who moves and tackles well. However, I think Gronk will be able to make plays if he’s the guy tasked with stopping him. Posluszny is still a solid run stuffing LB.

All in all, there is quite a lot of talent here. I think Belichick would go nuts with a unit like this. With that said, they are a very emotional group and are prone to losing focus from time to time. Pit made some really nice plays but they didn’t have any issues moving the ball on them. Jimmy completely torched them in Week 16.

As many have already said, I think the plan here is the work the up tempo game and running game and then pick your spots looking for big plays in the passing game. If the Pats stubbornly go too heavy with the vertical passing game like SB42, I see a lot of pressure on Brady and multiple sacks with a couple turnovers. Fortunately, I think we learned our lesson there.

Instead, I think we’ll work the quick passing game, get the RBs out in space, and hammer the middle of the field. Cooks may not get even 3 catches. I think his job will be to run deep routes all day to tie up one of their corners and a safety on some plays to give Gronk/Amendola/Hogan plenty of room over the middle of the field. Even though the Steelers put up 42 on them, I don’t think we’ll get to 30. My guess is somewhere in the 23-27 range, which should be enough at home against Bortles. But I anticipate a tighter game than the line suggests.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Jags have forced 40 turnovers in 18 games this year.

In wins, they have forced 4, 3, 5, 2, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2. In losses, they have forced 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.

In wins, they have been +4, +3, +4, +2, e, +4, +2, +2, +1, +2, +2. In losses, they have been -2, +1, e, -1, -2, -3.

Patriots need to trust their defense and not be afraid to punt unless and until game situation forces them into trying to stick balls in tough spots or trying to eek out extra yards while those guys strip and claw at the ball. We can survive a few sacks and punts. We probably can't survive strip sacks. Even if the Patriots fall behind, they really need to respect this team's prowess when it comes to getting the football out of your hands and causing short fields. It's real.
 

Captaincoop

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I wanted Pittsburgh. This week could have been spent bouncing in my chair at work waiting for that showdown. I trusted the Pats to win that kind of heavyweight fight.

Now the week is going to be spent hoping the Pats players have zero percent letdown knowing that the #2 seed got bounced and they're facing an unheralded opponent.

Hopefully the Jag-ewe-ars spend all week running their mouths. Things have been promising so far in that regard.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Jags have forced 40 turnovers in 18 games this year.

In wins, they have forced 4, 3, 5, 2, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2. In losses, they have forced 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.

In wins, they have been +4, +3, +4, +2, e, +4, +2, +2, +1, +2, +2. In losses, they have been -2, +1, e, -1, -2, -3.

Patriots need to trust their defense and not be afraid to punt unless and until game situation forces them into trying to stick balls in tough spots or trying to eek out extra yards while those guys strip and claw at the ball. We can survive a few sacks and punts. We probably can't survive strip sacks. Even if the Patriots fall behind, they really need to respect this team's prowess when it comes to getting the football out of your hands and causing short fields. It's real.
Yup. This is a team that forced 17 fumbles and picked off 21 passes. They scored 7 defensive TDs this year. They create a lot of negative plays for opposing offenses so ball security will be paramount, as always.

By comparison, the Pats forced only 9 fumbles and picked off just 12 passes and they didn’t score a single defensive TD all year. Only 3 other teams can say that (PIT, OAK, NYJ...not a good group).

Clearly, these are 2 teams with much different defensive philosophies. The Jags are going to send everything they’ve got at Brady while the Pats are going to make Bortles complete long drives for TDs. Should be fascinating to watch.
 

Ale Xander

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Yup. This is a team that forced 17 fumbles and picked off 21 passes. They scored 7 defensive TDs this year. They create a lot of negative plays for opposing offenses so ball security will be paramount, as always.

By comparison, the Pats forced only 9 fumbles and picked off just 12 passes and they didn’t score a single defensive TD all year. Only 3 other teams can say that (PIT, OAK, NYJ...not a good group).

Clearly, these are 2 teams with much different defensive philosophies. The Jags are going to send everything they’ve got at Brady while the Pats are going to make Bortles complete long drives for TDs. Should be fascinating to watch.
Never too late to start and they are playing Bortles
 

Stitch01

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Well, it's boy cries wolf for CHB. The other playoff runs may have run into some lucky breaks, but that's true almost every year when you make it to the later rounds.

This year, though? I mean, the Titans game was a -13.5 spread, and the Jags opened at -9.5. They probably open up as 4-5 point favorites over Minnesota, and 7 over Philly. Its ok that things broke right for them in the playoffs this year. They still need to execute, and it shouldn't detract from the victory. And to do it all without their best WR and best front 7 player? It's remarkable.

*Knock on wood, and all that jazz.*
Yeah, its probably going to be the easiest playoff path the Pats have had (certainly will be if Philly wins). But Atlanta, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and KC (so far) weren't up to the challenge and no one else in the AFC was up to challenge of being the one seed and in position to benefit from the dominoes falling correctly, so I dont really see the CHB point (shocking). Should we just not have a Super Bowl champ this year or something?

I also dont see how the Vikings are tomato cans. They went 13-3 and the Super Bowl is in Minnesota. The defense is awesome, they're well coached, and the offense is productive.

Im gonna be rooting for the Eagles this Sunday because rooting for Super Bowl winners is fun and the Pats are more likely to beat the Eagles.

Unlike the Titans, the Jags have legit upset equity, but its probably another Super Bowl appearance for the Pats and that is awesome.

-3 is the look ahead line for Pats/Minn FWIW.
 

Ale Xander

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Yup. Quite frankly, I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get a couple turnovers. The opportunities will be there.
Ale Xander hypothetical odds for first Pats defensive TD:

Gilmore 7:1
Harmon 9:1
Butler, M 10:1
P Chung 15:1
Jones J (if healthy) 15:1
Harrison, J. 19:1
McCourty 20:1
Rowe 20:1
Flowers, T 22:1
KVN 25:1
Roberts 35:1
Flowers, M 35:1
Richards 40:1
Field 9:1
 

pedroia'sboys

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I wanted Pitt but at the end of the day ill trust Vegas. Pats would of been around a 4.5 point favorite against Pitt. Obviously much lower than the current line.
Thanks. Very insightful. I think there are two groups of rational fans, and one group of tomato can fans right now. Overall, on the fence about the Pats covering, but feel pretty good (now I am scared) about them straight up. Early lead will be huge, make Bortles beat you and by the late 3rd Q I can see the defense becoming very frustrated that their hopes are tied to Bortles' arm.
 

tims4wins

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Simple but telling stat: the Jags were 1-6 in games in which they fell behind by more than 3 points. The lone win was a 20-17 OT win at home against the Chargers after falling behind 14-6. Get a lead and it's pretty much over.
 

dbn

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I support this view. If it's not going to be us, I'll feel a lot better if it's Jacksonville. Their fans deserve something to cheer about.

That said, by season point differential it's Patriots +162, Jaguars +149, Steelers +98. Were it not for the Jimmy G ass-kicking they received, Jacksonville might easily lead the AFC in point differential. They are likely a better team, top-to-bottom, than the Steelers.
Who?
 

CSteinhardt

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Not a Pats fan here, but I'm surprised there was ever serious consideration to preferring to play a team that went 13-3 against about an average schedule rather than one that went 10-6 against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, especially when playoff experience and rest are also in favor of the 13-3 team.

Jacksonville is a good team, and anybody remaining at this stage should have at least a 25% chance to win on Sunday. But I can't come up with a good argument for preferring the Steelers from a competitive point of view.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Jul 4, 2006
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Not a Pats fan here, but I'm surprised there was ever serious consideration to preferring to play a team that went 13-3 against about an average schedule rather than one that went 10-6 against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, especially when playoff experience and rest are also in favor of the 13-3 team.

Jacksonville is a good team, and anybody remaining at this stage should have at least a 25% chance to win on Sunday. But I can't come up with a good argument for preferring the Steelers from a competitive point of view.
The Jaguars had a higher SRS than the Steelers which adjusts for SOS. Pittsburgh's wins included a five-point win over the Lions where they gave up almost 500 yards of offense and somehow held them without a TD, a 14-point comeback against the Colts, a squeaker at home over the Brett Hundley Packers, a 17-point comeback against the Bengals and a nine-point comeback against the Ravens with under seven minutes left. They weren't that good. The Jaguars had a higher SRS and kicked their ass twice on the road - I'd say Sunday's margin of victory was pretty misleading as the Jags dominated almost every time it was a one-possession game.
 
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Hoodie Sleeves

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,204
They stretched the #Jaguars out horizontally and were able to find holes in their zones over the middle or beat man coverage with quick option routes. Plus, Kyle had a few great bootleg designs thrown in there as well. #49ers offense is awesome to watch.
This matches my perception of the game against Pittsburgh - the underneath stuff was open all day, and they seemed to have a lot of trouble with the crossing stuff, and covering RBs. Most of the long gains to Brown seemed to come when they started cheating up trying to slow down the short stuff.


DVOA matches that perception - they're ridiculous against deep passing, but merely average against short stuff - and their two worst ratings are covering TEs and RBs. They're 26th against the run. That seems like as positive of a matchup for the Patriots as possible (for an elite defense).