2018-19 Offseason Thread

Cesar Crespo

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So, DD can’t say “we could consider signing one of them or both?”
He could, but the fact he wanted to sign one or both is proof they aren't "in house" otherwise he wouldn't have to sign them. In house means you have control of the player.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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Dombrowski was on MLBN (or they called him) this past week. They asked him who would close next year if Kimbrel moves on. He said the two best candidates in house were Barnes and Brasier. “If we don’t think they’ll be good enough, we’ll have to look elsewhere.” Paraphrasing that last part. No mention of Kelly or Eovaldi. Everybody thinks Eovaldi will be a starter, right? Kelly gone, or too unreliable, or both?
I was joking about Eovaldi as our relief ace. It's just intuition, but I think Kelly will be on the 2019 team. I agree that Barnes and Brazier should get a look at closer whether Kelly stays or not. I believe Eovaldi and Kimbrel will be gone. We shall see.
 

MikeM

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Not to be that guy, but how great would Ty Buttrey look right now? *ducks*
As a direct Kimbrel or Kelly replacement, and within an off-season where there is a strong surrounding expectation of making a repeat title run?

Guessing he wouldn't be the ideal answer a lot of people would be hoping to see.
 

Cesar Crespo

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As a direct Kimbrel or Kelly replacement, and within an off-season where there is a strong surrounding expectation of making a repeat title run?

Guessing he wouldn't be the ideal answer a lot of people would be hoping to see.
I didn't mean as the closer but I think Buttrey would be fine as a Kelly replacement. I guess it depends on what version of Joe Kelly you buy into. I hope Kelly isn't a serious candidate for the closing job even if re-signed. He's too Jekyll and Hyde.
 

JimD

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Not to be that guy, but how great would Ty Buttrey look right now? *ducks*

At the time, I make that trade though. A WS ring makes it all moot too.
I still make that trade now (or one like it). I know it's popular right now to crap all over Kinsler after Game 3, but he helped stabilize 2B for this team. Who knows if Nunez or Holt gets hurt playing in August or September and aren't available to make their key contributions in the postseason?
 

johnnywayback

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Buttrey could be a pretty good middle reliever in 2019, and his ceiling is probably something like Matt Barnes. That's a valuable player.

Good thing we have Travis Lakins, Durbin Feltman, Mike Shawaryn, Chandler Sheperd, and Darwinzon Hernandez, all of whom also fit that description, plus guys like Zach Shellinger, Chase Shugart, and Tanner Houck in the pipeline for 2020 and beyond.

EDITED TO ADD: I was pretty sore when they included Jamie Callahan in the Addison Reed deal. He was shoving in Portland, holding his own in Pawtucket, and then started shoving in Las Vegas for the Mets. But then he had a terrible 2018, got hurt, and got released. Pitchers, amirite?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Buttrey could be a pretty good middle reliever in 2019, and his ceiling is probably something like Matt Barnes. That's a valuable player.

Good thing we have Travis Lakins, Durbin Feltman, Mike Shawaryn, Chandler Sheperd, and Darwinzon Hernandez, all of whom also fit that description, plus guys like Zach Shellinger, Chase Shugart, and Tanner Houck in the pipeline for 2020 and beyond.
Buttrey throws harder than all of those guys not name Shellinger, although Feltman and Hernandez are close. All those pitchers you mentioned meet the description of a MR (outside of Houck maybe), not Matt Barnes.

I don't know if you are overrating our farm or underrating Matt Barnes. Or both.
 

Kramerica Industries

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How did he frustrate the team?
He had a really good season, got hurt, and then did a really solid job in Game 4 of the WS.
Obviously, you don't know how to enter the portal to Cora's mind
He frustrated Cora in the ALDS by not covering 1st. That may be what he means.

You dont have to be snarky. There is no portal. How about you listen to what Cora says after the games?

Sept 29th

Alex Cora did not pick his words carefully or turn to any euphemisms when asked his opinion of how Eduardo Rodriguez pitched on Saturday against the Yankees.

“Not good,” he said. “He needs to be better . . . we need him to be better. He’s part of this and whatever role it is, it’s your role and you have to go after it. Today it wasn’t good.”


OCT 7TH

"I just slipped on the mound and when I realized he was beating me already," Rodriguez said. "I just let him get to the base."

He didn't slip. There's plenty of video of the play. Cora pulled him aside this afternoon in New York and told him that wasn't going to fly.

"I just talked to him and told him just be accountable. That's it," Cora said. "I guess he told you guys he slipped or something like that. I'm like, 'Man, if you don't break right away, just be accountable, that's all we ask.' And he's like, 'Yeah, my fault. I just didn't break.'


"That's it. Hey, I get it. Next time just bust your ass to first base," Cora concluded. "That's all you've got to do."


 

OurF'ingCity

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Pearce is, I think, a pretty obvious re-sign at that number, and I would say Eovaldi is too. Conversely, I wouldn't go anywhere near that Kimbrel contract and IMO that is too much for Kelly too, though YMMV.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Pearce is, I think, a pretty obvious re-sign at that number, and I would say Eovaldi is too. Conversely, I wouldn't go anywhere near that Kimbrel contract and IMO that is too much for Kelly too, though YMMV.
Personally, I think that's high for Pearce and I'd be fine with that for the other outside of Kinsler, though I'd prefer Kimbrel on a 3 year deal as opposed to 4.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I like Pearce. Fits well with our needs. But $9M seems steep. He made $6.25 this year. Freese just reupped for $5M. Offer him $6.5.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I'm not a "capologist" or whatever the MLB version of that is but my thinking on Pearce was more based on the 1-year part of the prediction rather than the $9 million. Are the Sox in a position where overpaying Pearce by a few million just for next year would have a material effect on their ability to sign or extend anyone else?
 

Murderer's Crow

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I'm not a "capologist" or whatever the MLB version of that is but my thinking on Pearce was more based on the 1-year part of the prediction rather than the $9 million. Are the Sox in a position where overpaying Pearce by a few million just for next year would have a material effect on their ability to sign or extend anyone else?
I think the answer could be yes if they want to stay below $246m. The team was within $2-3m of the upper threshold this year and went over to make some acquisitions. They could easily see themselves in the same position if they’re willing to go the extra mile to keep players like Eovaldi and Pearce.
 

MakeMineMoxie

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Dollars for Pearce are a little high but I'd like him back platooning with Moreland and I like Eovaldi for 3 years, maybe offer an incentive 4th year based on health.

If they are really in a GFIN mode in 2019, they'll have to spend on a couple of bullpen holes and even if they re-sign Kimbrell, he could be a trade chip in 2020.

Do they roll with Holt as the Pedroia insurance? His super-sub role doesn't seem as vital with a solid outfield, SS, and infield corners.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Do they roll with Holt as the Pedroia insurance? His super-sub role doesn't seem as vital with a solid outfield, SS, and infield corners.
I'm good with Holt and Nunez as Pedroia insurance same as it was this year. There's always the option of doing the same thing they did with Kinsler and get another 2B if Pedroia can't play and the Holt/Nunez platoon isn't enough. Gennett, Schoop, and Castro (club option for 2020) are all potentially free agents at the end of 2019 and could be available as rentals.
 

Saints Rest

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I think the answer could be yes if they want to stay below $246m. The team was within $2-3m of the upper threshold this year and went over to make some acquisitions. They could easily see themselves in the same position if they’re willing to go the extra mile to keep players like Eovaldi and Pearce.
I know that a lot/most of team revenues are shared across the board, but does anyone know how much real, "stay-at-home" value there is for a team who wins the World Series? For example, increased ticket sales goes mostly to the big revenue pool, no? So no real benefit there. And for a team like the Sox that lives at close to full capacity, there's not much room there for marginal revenue. Where else? NESN subscriptions? Ad buys? Sponsorships/associations (e.g. CVS, Giant Glass, Sam Adams)?
 

chrisfont9

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I know that a lot/most of team revenues are shared across the board, but does anyone know how much real, "stay-at-home" value there is for a team who wins the World Series? For example, increased ticket sales goes mostly to the big revenue pool, no? So no real benefit there. And for a team like the Sox that lives at close to full capacity, there's not much room there for marginal revenue. Where else? NESN subscriptions? Ad buys? Sponsorships/associations (e.g. CVS, Giant Glass, Sam Adams)?
I asked this recently and got no reply, although I've tried looking around for NESN subscriber stats and can't find any. Am guessing that's proprietary information. Anyway, that seems like the one revenue stream that can keep going up, even if the prices of everything remain the same.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I'm not a "capologist" or whatever the MLB version of that is but my thinking on Pearce was more based on the 1-year part of the prediction rather than the $9 million. Are the Sox in a position where overpaying Pearce by a few million just for next year would have a material effect on their ability to sign or extend anyone else?
As noted, depends on how everything else shakes out, I just don't think it's necessary to go that high to secure a one year deal for a 36 year old journeyman platoon bat.
 

j44thor

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I think Eovaldi either ends up with higher AAV (18X3) or 4-5yrs.

Seems to be a FA the Yanks will definitely be in on. They seem to favor pitchers with high velo and a good cutter. Plus Evo has already shown he can pitch in a big market and the playoffs. Classic improve your team and weaken your top opponent at same time.

Hope I'm wrong but I expect to see him in pinstripes next season.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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Fangraphs has posted their annual list of the top 50 free agents. Kiley McDaniel's estimate for each of our free agents below.

Eovaldi: 3/$48m
Kimbrel: 4/$56m
Kelly: 3/$24m
Pearce: 1/$9m
Kinsler: 1/$6m
Pomeranz: Not listed

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/
Eovaldi is only twice as expensive as Kelly???!!! You gotta make a run at Evoo if this is an accurate valuation. Pearce is a no brainer to sign. Kinsler, is a pretty expensive insurance policy for Pedroia that probably isn't even worth it. What are the external alternatives to Kinsler on the market?
 

Apisith

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Injury risk of Eovaldi is very high, that’s why I think people aren’t projecting him for a crazy contract.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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I think Eovaldi either ends up with higher AAV (18X3) or 4-5yrs.

Seems to be a FA the Yanks will definitely be in on. They seem to favor pitchers with high velo and a good cutter. Plus Evo has already shown he can pitch in a big market and the playoffs. Classic improve your team and weaken your top opponent at same time.

Hope I'm wrong but I expect to see him in pinstripes next season.
Man, I hope you’re wrong.

To me Eovaldi was critical to our winning this year, and will be going forward. The Yankees have elite right handed power, and we needed (and will need) elite right handed power arms to neutralize this.
Eovaldi showed several times last year that he can shut those bats down. This was immense, as our lefty staters were far less effective, and I think we will always need a presence like his to be able to beat them.

So if the Yankees were to sign him, that’d be a huge coup for them, and a shift of power in my opinion.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Injury risk of Eovaldi is very high, that’s why I think people aren’t projecting him for a crazy contract.
And has thrown > 155 innings once in his career.

A big 4-5 year bet on Eovaldi as a starter is a parlay that he not only avoids another big injury but that he also does so while pitching more than he has in the past and without sacrificing the performance gains he demonstrated this year.

It all depends on cost but the rational side of my brain looks at that parlay and thinks it’s a pretty stupid idea.
 

chawson

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I like Marwin Gonzalez the more I goof around with the numbers, and his Fangraphs contract projection seems pretty reasonable. Had a fairly uneven year last year but finished really strong, and his 2017-18 wOBA is pretty solid. I don’t think the market’s caught up with guys who can play anywhere on the field.

I think we re-sign Xander but he’s a good hedge if we don’t, and/or would be a solid way of getting Pedroia insurance without making a comeback impossible by signing a proper 2B (LeMahieu or Dozier or whatever).

On the other hand, we already have two guys like that (Nuñez and Holt, neither of whom I really want to lean on), and possibly two more (Marco and Lin, who haven’t been able to do it at the major league level).
 
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BornToRun

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Man, I hope you’re wrong.

To me Eovaldi was critical to our winning this year, and will be going forward. The Yankees have elite right handed power, and we needed (and will need) elite right handed power arms to neutralize this.
Eovaldi showed several times last year that he can shut those bats down. This was immense, as our lefty staters were far less effective, and I think we will always need a presence like his to be able to beat them.

So if the Yankees were to sign him, that’d be a huge coup for them, and a shift of power in my opinion.
Well in fairness, there was supposed to be a shift of power to the MFY this year and we all saw how that worked out for them.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Well in fairness, there was supposed to be a shift of power to the MFY this year and we all saw how that worked out for them.
Why? Because they got Stanton? I assumed (correctly it turns out), that the Yankees wouldn't have enough pitching. This is where they still struggle to compete with us....unless they sign someone like Eovaldi.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I like Marwin Gonzalez the more I goof around with the numbers, and his Fangraphs contract projection seems pretty reasonable. Had a fairly uneven year last year but finished really strong, and his 2017-18 wOBA is pretty solid. I don’t think the market’s caught up with guys who can play anywhere on the field.

I think we re-sign Xander but he’s a good hedge if we don’t, and/or would be a solid way of getting Pedroia insurance without making a comeback impossible by signing a proper 2B (LeMahieu or Dozier or whatever).

On the other hand, we already have two guys like that (Nuñez and Holt, neither of whom I really want to lean on), and possibly two more (Marco and Lin, who haven’t been able to do it at the major league level).
I've seen places project the Sox to sign a guy to play 2d (e.g. Lowrie, DJ LeMathieu) because of the uncertainty with Pedroia. If the team shares that concern, then Gonzalez might be the right guy to get to provide 2d base insurance AND to help platoon with Moreland (making Pearce unnecessary). We can only have 25 guys on the roster, after all. But I think MG will get a decent, multi-year deal. like Zobrist did.
 

BaseballJones

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Marwin Gonzalez would be a phenomenal addition to this team. Having him and Holt on the same roster would provide them with unbelievable flexibility. He didn't have as good a year in 2018 as he did in 2017 (103 ops+ in 2018 vs 146 ops+ in 2017), so that may keep his price down a little. I imagine Houston would love to keep him, and there are probably lots of teams that would want him, so who knows what he can sign for. But yeah, he'd be a fantastic get. He has played every position but P and C.

Not sure he's a realistic pickup for the Sox but man I'd love to have him here.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Marwin Gonzalez would be a phenomenal addition to this team. Having him and Holt on the same roster would provide them with unbelievable flexibility. He didn't have as good a year in 2018 as he did in 2017 (103 ops+ in 2018 vs 146 ops+ in 2017), so that may keep his price down a little. I imagine Houston would love to keep him, and there are probably lots of teams that would want him, so who knows what he can sign for. But yeah, he'd be a fantastic get. He has played every position but P and C.

Not sure he's a realistic pickup for the Sox but man I'd love to have him here.
I don't mean to come off like Lou Gorman talking about Willie McGee, but what would they do with Marwin Gonzalez? The only way I see it working out is if Pedroia is absolutely done. If that's the case, signing Gonzalez to primarily be their second baseman would be a great move. But if Pedroia is good to play even just 100-120 games next year and Holt is still around, there really isn't a ton of playing time to go around. Gonzalez is absolutely a versatile guy and I like him, but I don't see 130-140 starts for him if everyone is relatively healthy.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't mean to come off like Lou Gorman talking about Willie McGee, but what would they do with Marwin Gonzalez? The only way I see it working out is if Pedroia is absolutely done. If that's the case, signing Gonzalez to primarily be their second baseman would be a great move. But if Pedroia is good to play even just 100-120 games next year and Holt is still around, there really isn't a ton of playing time to go around. Gonzalez is absolutely a versatile guy and I like him, but I don't see 130-140 starts for him if everyone is relatively healthy.
I agree with you. I'm not optimistic on Pedroia.
 

begranter

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I'd certainly be interested in Paxton, Segura, and Colome, even though I know we might not have the bullets.

Screenshot_20181107-000533.jpg
 

sean1562

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What about Zunino? How would he play at Fenway? Jettison Leon, Zunino/Vaz tandem the next two years?

edit: Both Vaz and Leon were truly terrible last year. Even getting a replacement level catcher would be an upgrade over those two. Improving our catchers might be a more cost effective way to get some wins, over signing Eovaldi to a huge deal. Zunino had a bad year last year, with an OPS of .669. Leon was at .511 and Vaz at .540. Vaz is a year older than Zunino, I dont think he is gonna blossom into anything special
 

DeadlySplitter

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the Sox seem to value consistency on pitch calling and rapport with pitchers for their catchers. the OPS numbers from our catchers is pretty stunning, but I think no changes will be made.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'd really like to see Leon traded or released and Swihart take over 2/5 duties. He showed that when he has consistent starts, he's a solid catcher and a decent bat.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I don't mean to come off like Lou Gorman talking about Willie McGee, but what would they do with Marwin Gonzalez? The only way I see it working out is if Pedroia is absolutely done. If that's the case, signing Gonzalez to primarily be their second baseman would be a great move. But if Pedroia is good to play even just 100-120 games next year and Holt is still around, there really isn't a ton of playing time to go around. Gonzalez is absolutely a versatile guy and I like him, but I don't see 130-140 starts for him if everyone is relatively healthy.
If it comes down to budget I can be convinced, but I don't think PT would be an issue for bringing in Gonzalez. With Cora's MO of giving everyone plenty of rest/days off I think it would be entirely workable to have Pedey, Holt and Marwin on the same roster.

Let's suppose that Pedroia manages 105 starts at 2B (which happens to be the total of Nunez and Kinsler's starts this year), we can give Brock 35 of the remaining starts and Marwin the other 22. I'd target 120 starts for Devers at 3B (he had 113 this year) which leaves 42 starts for our Brarwin platoon at the hot corner. The Pearland platoon at 1B might make 140 starts barring injury so that's another 22, Xander should hold steady at 130 at SS and the 4 OFs left 22 starts to others this year (Brock, Blake, Travis, Lin and Pearce) so that's a total of 160 starts for the Swiss Army pair before even accounting for the 233 PAs taken up by Hanley and Sam Travis.

Now granted Holt started 82 games this year and Gonzalez hit a career high of 136 so we're 58 starts short, but that's assuming no injuries anywhere to anyone beyond last year's occasional tweaks and scrapes to Xander, Mookie, et al. I think you could get away with promising Brock 60 - 80 starts and Marwin at least 100. Isn't that at least worth exploring?
 

EddieYost

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Gonzalez was/is a starter on the Astros. He just played different positions based on need. I sincerely doubt that he comes here to be a backup that plays a lot. I think he would want assurances that he is a starter.
 

moondog80

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I'd really like to see Leon traded or released and Swihart take over 2/5 duties. He showed that when he has consistent starts, he's a solid catcher and a decent bat.
Swihart had an OPS+ of 65 in 207 PA, and he has not hit at any level since 2015. There is no evidence that he is a decent bat, I won't be upset if he is simply let go.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I'd really like to see Leon traded or released and Swihart take over 2/5 duties. He showed that when he has consistent starts, he's a solid catcher and a decent bat.
At some point, SoSH is going to need to accept that this isn’t going to happen.
 

moondog80

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At some point, SoSH is going to need to accept that this isn’t going to happen.

Right. Sometimes prospects and draft picks don't work out. Get over Swihart, get over Trey Ball and Fab Melo and Chad Jackson, and move on.