2018-19 Offseason Thread

Clears Cleaver

Lil' Bill
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so today is qualifying offer day. I just learned that the Sox and Nationals, given they are over luxury tax, are the two teams who if they offer a player a QO but the player signs elsewhere, would receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round. the two Sox players eligible for QO are Kimbrel and Kelly
 

bosox79

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so today is qualifying offer day. I just learned that the Sox and Nationals, given they are over luxury tax, are the two teams who if they offer a player a QO but the player signs elsewhere, would receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round. the two Sox players eligible for QO are Kimbrel and Kelly
If this is true, they don't offer Kimbrel the QO unless they want him back for a year. The risk isn't worth it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I fixed your post.

Unless they simply do not care about a budget, and giving him 30 mil will never prevent them from making some other deal, I cannot imagine a scenario where I want to give Sale what I presume it would take to sign him.
Considering I was referring only to the injury Sale had this year, I don't think "fixing" my post was necessary. I'm less concerned about a pitcher at 220+ innings on the season experiencing fatigue at the end of the season than I am about a guy who missed the better part of two months with shoulder "inflammation" even if he did come back from it professing good health.
 

theapportioner

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Doesn't that depend on the quality of his secondaries, though? The reason why guys who throw triple digits tend to end up in bullpens is only partly that most guys can't do that for 100 pitches. It's also that most major league hitters can catch up to that kind of heat if they see it enough times and the pitcher can't get them thinking about something else.

Here's the AL league average OPS split for times a batter has seen a pitcher in a game:

1st time: .715
2nd time: .745
3rd time: .791

Here's that split for David Price:

1st time: .688
2nd time: .699
3rd time: .637

Other Sox starters:

Edro: .666/.698/.693
Porcello: .655/.697/.746
Sale: .509/.529/.608

Now here it is for Eovaldi:

1st time: .622
2nd time: .657
3rd time: .867

He runs out of tricks by the third time through.
Is this just for this year? Don't think you can extrapolate future performance if those numbers are aggregated over the course of a career.
 

chawson

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If this is true, they don't offer Kimbrel the QO unless they want him back for a year. The risk isn't worth it.
Seen another way, the prospect/minor leaguer an NL contender gives up for Kimbrel at 1/$18M is better than the 4th round draft pick we'd receive if he walks. It also helps us control who he plays for next year.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Is this just for this year? Don't think you can extrapolate future performance if those numbers are aggregated over the course of a career.
Yeah, it's tricky, because if you just use this year, the sample is small and less meaningful, but OTOH, if you use the whole career, it can be misleading because a pitcher's repertoire and tendencies can change so much. I chose to use just this year, and that certainly limits the value of these specific data.

But even granted that a metric as crude as one-year OPS splits is inadequate to the task, I think the difference I was trying to highlight is real, and probably measurable by more sophisticated tools, which I assume the Sox have at their disposal.
 

moondog80

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Considering I was referring only to the injury Sale had this year, I don't think "fixing" my post was necessary. I'm less concerned about a pitcher at 220+ innings on the season experiencing fatigue at the end of the season than I am about a guy who missed the better part of two months with shoulder "inflammation" even if he did come back from it professing good health.
The "fixing" part wasn't meant to be combative or critical, just a way to underscore how little I think it makes sense to sign him long term.
 

joe dokes

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I think we need to stop talking about "pitching 200 innings" and more about "making 30 (or 32) starts." The latter is something that actually happens with some regularity; the former isn't and, IMO, shouldn't be used as any sort of benchmark.
 

chrisfont9

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I think we need to stop talking about "pitching 200 innings" and more about "making 30 (or 32) starts." The latter is something that actually happens with some regularity; the former isn't and, IMO, shouldn't be used as any sort of benchmark.
Well, except above I saw some mention of Porcello "coming off the books" and I wonder, he actually is about a reliable an innings eater as we will have access to, so are we sure we want him coming off the books? Based on win value he's probably been paid about right, and has a successful postseason under his belt now too. Except for his better personality, he reminds me of Derek Lowe in terms of his dependability, quality and pitch mix, and, well, Derek Lowe went on to provide a ton of value through his age-35 season, getting a bit more consistent with his command as he aged. I guess we can see another season of Porcello before we judge. But with all the fragile arms around this is worth thinking about.
 

chawson

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Well, except above I saw some mention of Porcello "coming off the books" and I wonder, he actually is about a reliable an innings eater as we will have access to, so are we sure we want him coming off the books? Based on win value he's probably been paid about right, and has a successful postseason under his belt now too. Except for his better personality, he reminds me of Derek Lowe in terms of his dependability, quality and pitch mix, and, well, Derek Lowe went on to provide a ton of value through his age-35 season, getting a bit more consistent with his command as he aged. I guess we can see another season of Porcello before we judge. But with all the fragile arms around this is worth thinking about.
After his sparkling April, Porcello reverted back to having one of the worst home run rates in baseball. He's durable as hell and likely a few years away from no longer being an asset, but he's giving me a real James Shields vibe.
 
Sep 13, 2006
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He's one of our better pitching prospects.

A 21 year old LHSP, he had a pretty decent year between Salem and Portland. 134 K in 107 IP, but also 66 BB. 95ish fastball, good curveball, work-in-progress changeup and slider.
Regarding Hernandez (from the Athletic):

Pitcher of the Week: Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Red Sox
2.00 ERA, 9 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 18 K (6 games)

With a $7,500 price tag, Darwinzon Hernandez is surfacing as a bit of a steal for the Red Sox. The 21-year-old has started to master his plus-plus arm since first signing with Boston out of Venezuela in 2013.

Hernandez carries the type of velocity that teams are looking for, with his fastball tipping 98 mph and a three-pitch offspeed mix that is still coming into its own.

Mesa manager Lou Marson didn’t have any personal experience with Hernandez prior to the Fall League, but he’s bought into the skill set of the young pitcher.

“A lot of these guys, I never came across in minor league baseball, but I like what I’ve seen in Hernandez so far,” Marson said. “He’s got electric stuff. He’s not too far away from being in a big-league bullpen. Hopefully, it’s with Boston, for their sake.”

While the 6-2, 245-pound lefty has an easy time attacking the strike zone, Marson and his staff are taking advantage of their time with Hernandez to iron out some wrinkles.

“Sometimes he’s had a little bit of an issue with the command, but with guys with high velocity, it tends to happen,” Marson said. “I like him a lot. He’s been consistent all fall. I mean, he’s come out and pounded the strike zone. He’s got a very good slider for an out pitch and he’s done well.”

Hernandez has worked scoreless in four of his six outings this fall with Mesa, allowing one earned run over his last three appearances.
 

chrisfont9

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After his sparkling April, Porcello reverted back to having one of the worst home run rates in baseball. He's durable as hell and likely a few years away from no longer being an asset, but he's giving me a real James Shields vibe.
Fair, although I'm not sure the pitch mix is quite the same, though really I've blocked out Shields from my mind mostly. Shields did retain some value through his age 33 season, so where Porcello falls on the Lowe-Shields Index is the big question.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Red Sox will, of course, extend a qualifying offer to Craig kimbrel
Should come as no real surprise. As frustrating as some might find him to watch on an everyday basis, he's still one of the best in the game. Even if they don't want to keep him at that salary should he accept, he's very tradeable.
 

Bowlerman9

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So much for watching the ninth inning. I had no idea that guy made so much money.
If this means they don't make an offer to Eovaldi, it's a big mistake, imo.
Players traded mid-season aren't eligible for a Qualifying Offer. Thus, we cant make one to Eovaldi.
 

lexrageorge

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Correct. The only 2 eligible QO players were Kelly and Kimbrel. It's not hard seeing Kimbrel getting at least 2-3 years on the open market, so I don't think the QO matters that much other than to ensure the Sox get something in case he leaves.

Sox probably will make an offer to Eovaldi regardless of what happens to Kimbrel. Whether it will be enough really depends upon the market, thoughts of other GM's, Eovaldi's preferences, etc.
 

chawson

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Fair, although I'm not sure the pitch mix is quite the same, though really I've blocked out Shields from my mind mostly. Shields did retain some value through his age 33 season, so where Porcello falls on the Lowe-Shields Index is the big question.
Pitch mix is close. Porcello throws fastball/curve/change/slider (the latter of which he ramped up usage this year) while Shields has got fastball/curve/change/cutter.

Shields is seven years older. He was more reliant on the change and didn't fully lose effectiveness until 2015. On the other hand, it's a different league now. The scary part is that Rick throws everything about 2-3 mph slower than Shields did in 2011.
 

BaseballJones

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Kimbrel, even in a down year, was still pretty dominant. So of course they’d love to have him on the team. Just not on an expensive, multi-year deal.

Wonder if he accepts (hey maybe he just loves it here) and if he does, what that means for Eovaldi and Kelly.
 

drbretto

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If JD's contract is indicative of a change in the market, if I'm Kimbrel's agent, I advise him to accept that offer.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Well, if he accepts that's probably a best-case for the Sox. they can go nuts in 2019 knowing they have a ton of money coming off in 2020 (Sale, Porcello, Kimbrel, Moreland) and their window is now.

they'd still need to sign a starter. Hopefully Eovaldi is the guy, he slots into Porcello's money (understanding they need to pay X, JBJ, Betts, etc)
 

RedOctober3829

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Well, if he accepts that's probably a best-case for the Sox. they can go nuts in 2019 knowing they have a ton of money coming off in 2020 (Sale, Porcello, Kimbrel, Moreland) and their window is now.

they'd still need to sign a starter. Hopefully Eovaldi is the guy, he slots into Porcello's money (understanding they need to pay X, JBJ, Betts, etc)
What about exploring a Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco deal with the centerpiece involving a young major league piece? Kluber has 3 years left of team control at cheap money($13, $13.5, and $14 with the last 2 years being club options) and Carrasco has 2 years left both of which are under $10 million. I know Benintendi is nearly untouchable due to being pre-arbitration, but him as the centerpiece in a deal for Kluber would be one of those situations I'd consider moving him.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Here is spotrac's list of closer contracts. I don't know if it's complete but I would think that Chapman and Jansen are definitely potential comps for a very accomplished 30 year old closer. I can't imagine any possible scenario under which accepting the QO would make any sense for Kimbrel.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/closer/
 

chrisfont9

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Pitch mix is close. Porcello throws fastball/curve/change/slider (the latter of which he ramped up usage this year) while Shields has got fastball/curve/change/cutter.

Shields is seven years older. He was more reliant on the change and didn't fully lose effectiveness until 2015. On the other hand, it's a different league now. The scary part is that Rick throws everything about 2-3 mph slower than Shields did in 2011.
Well that's an interesting point: do these sinker/slider guys hold up as well as the same type of pitcher did 10-15 years ago? I love guys like Porcello who move the ball and paint corners in a variety of ways, but I admit after one more season of his work, I have no idea how we'll see him.
 

chawson

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What about exploring a Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco deal with the centerpiece involving a young major league piece? Kluber has 3 years left of team control at cheap money($13, $13.5, and $14 with the last 2 years being club options) and Carrasco has 2 years left both of which are under $10 million. I know Benintendi is nearly untouchable due to being pre-arbitration, but him as the centerpiece in a deal for Kluber would be one of those situations I'd consider moving him.
Would be a masterstroke to trade Beni for Kluber and sign Michael Brantley, who's virtually an identical player (though older) and doesn't require a draft pick to sign.

Brantley may also be the best contact hitter in baseball, which is a skill DD has seemed to value.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Would be a masterstroke to trade Beni for Kluber and sign Michael Brantley, who's virtually an identical player (though older) and doesn't require a draft pick to sign.

Brantley may also be the best contact hitter in baseball, which is a skill DD has seemed to value.
It’d be a ‘master stroke’ to trade the cheap 24 year old budding star with four years of control left on the cheap to sub in a 32 year old injury prone guy that’s missed large portion of the last 3 seasons? I’m not sure that’s a master stroke and CLE isn’t doing a one for one there for Kluber. I’d rather spend the $5M/extra on Eovaldi - the two combined are way less than Benny and Eovaldi would cost - and we wouldn’t be throwing away more prospects and going guys from a team that needs both right now.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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So Kershaw just renegotiated with LA, and he only got an extra year and $28M tacked on to his remaining two years. That's really interesting. I thought he'd at least double the remaining money and years left on his deal.

Most of us thought Tanaka was going to opt out last year, but he didn't, and then we saw the market tank for almost everyone. Agents know more than we do. It's possible that they are expecting the same slow and cold market this year. If so, that could be good news for our chances of retaining Eovaldi.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I didn't mean "qualifying offer." I meant serious money, that will persuade him to stay.
The fear is that the leading contender may be the Yankees. That would be a bit of a double whammy since we have to play them 19 times and you need decent righties against him, so it would stink to see him go there.

If they decide they want him we probably can't compete. They are probably going to be in for Morton too though.
 

MikeM

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If you pay a guy 15-20 million for 3-4 years I think you better be getting more like 200 than 50 innings out of him though, right ?
Sure, assuming both are equally as good a bet to actually play out that way in reality over the duration of said contract. Outside getting caught up in the current moment and isolated paper theory values involved...I'm just not completely sold that is actually the present case here. Also guessing he'd see more then 50ip as a reliever even signing as the "closer" too, fwtw.

Or put another way I guess - the Sox will probably end up spending a lot of money on a closer option regardless. If they are only keeping one of those players, and the options boil down to Eovaldi at $3/$45 or Kimbrel at 1/$18m, which option would you prefer?

Disappointed, but not worst thing in the world disappointed, in reading that the Sox plan to offer Kimbrel a QO. Hope I'm wrong on the guess that he takes it.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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After his sparkling April, Porcello reverted back to having one of the worst home run rates in baseball. He's durable as hell and likely a few years away from no longer being an asset, but he's giving me a real James Shields vibe.
In that case, let's see if we can sign him for four years at the same money as the last four, because if we get anything like the kind of performance Shields delivered in his age 30-33 years (114 ERA+, about 12 and a half WAR by both FG and BBref), that will be money very, very well spent. It's hard to remember, but Shields was a very good pitcher until he wasn't, and that didn't happen till he was in his mid-30s.

And yes, Shields seems like an extremely good comp for Porcello, both in terms of stuff and overall quality level. If you look at their age 26-29 years, some of the numbers are literally identical -- they both had an ERA+ of 106 and gave up 113 HR over that stretch. Shields pitched about 25 more innings per year -- he actually averaged 220-some IP through those years, which is a ton -- and had slightly worse K/BB numbers while giving up slightly fewer homers per inning. But very comparable overall.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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I'll always love what he did for the Sox in the playoffs this year, but I am not at all sold on Eovaldi going forward. He's always had a huge arm and mediocre results. He throws 100+ and has never averaged a strikeout/inning. His career stats are relatively similar to Drew Pomeranz, and he's had two TJ surgeries. Someone is going to give him a 3-4 year contract and be sorry they did. I'd much rather extend Porcello, given the choice between the two.
 

chawson

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It’d be a ‘master stroke’ to trade the cheap 24 year old budding star with four years of control left on the cheap to sub in a 32 year old injury prone guy that’s missed large portion of the last 3 seasons? I’m not sure that’s a master stroke and CLE isn’t doing a one for one there for Kluber. I’d rather spend the $5M/extra on Eovaldi - the two combined are way less than Benny and Eovaldi would cost - and we wouldn’t be throwing away more prospects and going guys from a team that needs both right now.
Yep, it would. Brantley's right shoulder took a couple years to heal but it looked pretty healthy last year when he logged 631 PA posting exit velocities higher than our "budding star." If you don't like him, then there are other perfectly suitable left-fielders available.

Would Cleveland accept Benintendi for Kluber? I can't say. Kiley McDaniel has the two at roughly equal value in Fangraphs' trade value series on July 19 (after which date Beni put up a 96 wRC+ with two home runs in 256 PAs).

I'd also like to sign Eovaldi depending on the price, but we don't know the price, and the injury risk is considerable. I'm estimating salaries here (except for Kluber), but the hypothetical I'm considering would be:

Brantley at 3/$36 + Kluber at 3/$46
or
Beni 4/$25M (estimating arb salary) + Eovaldi 4/$80M

Again, no idea what Brantley and Eovaldi sign for. But my overall point is that it's exponentially easier to replace Beni's production in left than to find a top of the rotation pitcher.

Edit: Kluber’s salary
 
Last edited:

chawson

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In that case, let's see if we can sign him for four years at the same money as the last four, because if we get anything like the kind of performance Shields delivered in his age 30-33 years (114 ERA+, about 12 and a half WAR by both FG and BBref), that will be money very, very well spent. It's hard to remember, but Shields was a very good pitcher until he wasn't, and that didn't happen till he was in his mid-30s.

And yes, Shields seems like an extremely good comp for Porcello, both in terms of stuff and overall quality level. If you look at their age 26-29 years, some of the numbers are literally identical -- they both had an ERA+ of 106 and gave up 113 HR over that stretch. Shields pitched about 25 more innings per year -- he actually averaged 220-some IP through those years, which is a ton -- and had slightly worse K/BB numbers while giving up slightly fewer homers per inning. But very comparable overall.
This is all true, except that Porcello is already giving up home runs at the rate Shields did when he fell off a cliff.
 
Sep 13, 2006
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The fear is that the leading contender may be the Yankees. That would be a bit of a double whammy since we have to play them 19 times and you need decent righties against him, so it would stink to see him go there.

If they decide they want him we probably can't compete. They are probably going to be in for Morton too though.
We all know that money talks, but the Yankees were also the organization who released Evo after the 2016 season due to Evo's Tommy John and flexor tendon surgeries. That may have left an unsavory taste in Nathan's mouth.

I'm inclined to think that if Evo is coming back to Boston that the deal will happen sooner rather than later. The longer the process drags on, the greater the likelihood that he inks elsewhere.
 
Sep 13, 2006
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...But my overall point is that it's exponentially easier to replace Beni's production in left than to find a top of the rotation pitcher.
This succinctly explains why the Tribe would have ZERO inclination to deal Kluber (who is under their control thru 2021 at very reasonable money).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Yep, it would. Brantley's right shoulder took a couple years to heal but it looked pretty healthy last year when he logged 631 PA posting exit velocities higher than our "budding star." If you don't like him, then there are other perfectly suitable left-fielders available.

Would Cleveland accept Benintendi for Kluber? I can't say. Kiley McDaniel has the two at roughly equal value in Fangraphs' trade value series on July 19 (after which date Beni put up a 96 wRC+ with two home runs in 256 PAs).

I'd also like to sign Eovaldi depending on the price, but we don't know the price, and the injury risk is considerable. I'm estimating salaries here (except for Kluber), but the hypothetical I'm considering would be:

Brantley at 3/$36 + Kluber at 3/$40.5
or
Beni 4/$25M (estimating arb salary) + Eovaldi 4/$80M

Again, no idea what Brantley and Eovaldi sign for. But my overall point is that it's exponentially easier to replace Beni's production in left than to find a top of the rotation pitcher.
So, spitball numbers for the FAs and ignore the fact that Benny is a better player, healthier, much younger, cheaper and will improve instead of regress because exit velocity?

We don’t need to find a top of the rotation starter we have two. We need to keep good going players not trade them.

I’m not getting the infatuation with trading these guys around here lately.
 

chawson

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This succinctly explains why the Tribe would have ZERO inclination to deal Kluber (who is under their control thru 2021 at very reasonable money).
This discussion came from a report today that said they were looking to cut payroll. They also have three #1-2 pitchers besides Kluber and zero starting outfielders.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Dodgers are on crack. Offering Ryu a QO. Dude stays healthy 3 months out of the season.
 

RedOctober3829

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MLBTR put their top 50 free agents predictions out. They have the Sox signing Eovaldi to a 4/$60 million deal and Andrew Miller to a 3/$27 million deal. They have Kimbrel getting $70 million from the Cardinals and Kelly going to LAA for the Miller contract.

They say Harper to Dodgers for 14/420 and Machado to Philly for 13/390.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html