2018-19 Offseason Thread

BaseballJones

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Assuming you're looking at this page, you're looking at 2020's numbers.

For next year, b-ref estimates they are at $214.2M with options picked up (and no free agents signed). Cot's also has estimates which put the Sox payroll at $213.5M. Either way, the luxury tax cap is $206M, so they're over it already. Assuming that their true cap is the secondary threshold of $246M (where the penalties are stiffest), they've got about $32M to work with.
Yes sir, I was looking at 2020. My bad. Ugh. Well....ok so maybe $32m for that secondary threshold. Same kind of situation then.
 

opes

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I'd give up Beni for the first six in that set (and sign Pollock/McCutchen/Brantley), but I doubt more than one of those guys is available, if any at all.
But why would you give up a cost controlled outfielder, replace him with more or less expensive version, and add more pay in completing a trade for a pitcher who still has a contract as well? If you are trying to save money, your going the opposite way.
 

nvalvo

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A radical idea would be to sign Eovaldi and then trade Porcello to a contender for a good young starting pitching prospect. I'm thinking like Sixto Sanchez in the Phillie organization. He is very highly rated and put up a 2.70 era, 1.07 whip, and 8.7 k/9 in A+ ball at age 19. Philly has money, and they're definitely a contender. Adding Porcello would be huge for them from a 2019 baseball standpoint. Of course, no clue if Philly has any interest in anything like that and the specifics aren't important. Just the concept of moving Porcello to a contender for a highly regarded starting pitching prospect. The Sox then roll with a rotation of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and Wright. Or if not Wright, then Brian Johnson or Velazquez or sign a much cheaper free agent (cheaper than Porcello) like Travis Wood. Then they end up with a quality starting prospect in the minors to go along with Groome. And they save enough $$ to keep Kelly.
Wouldn't Philly be better off instead just signing Eovaldi themselves and keeping their pitching prospect?
 

BaseballJones

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Wouldn't Philly be better off instead just signing Eovaldi themselves and keeping their pitching prospect?
Sure, if Eovaldi would sign there (which he might), and if they want Eovaldi more than Porcello at $20+ million. But it's obviously entirely possible that Eovaldi prefers playing in Boston. Just because Philly would be better off signing Eovaldi and keeping their pitching prospect, doesn't mean that that's what they're able to do.
 

chawson

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But why would you give up a cost controlled outfielder, replace him with more or less expensive version, and add more pay in completing a trade for a pitcher who still has a contract as well? If you are trying to save money, your going the opposite way.
I’m not trying to save money, I’m trying to get an ace.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Sure, if Eovaldi would sign there (which he might), and if they want Eovaldi more than Porcello at $20+ million. But it's obviously entirely possible that Eovaldi prefers playing in Boston. Just because Philly would be better off signing Eovaldi and keeping their pitching prospect, doesn't mean that that's what they're able to do.
Anything's possible, but I have a hard time envisioning any team trading away a top prospect for one year of a good but not great pitcher when there are other options available that are either (a) cheaper; (b) better; or (c) some combination of both.
 

sackamano

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A radical idea would be to sign Eovaldi and then trade Porcello to a contender for a good young starting pitching prospect. I'm thinking like Sixto Sanchez in the Phillie organization. He is very highly rated and put up a 2.70 era, 1.07 whip, and 8.7 k/9 in A+ ball at age 19. Philly has money, and they're definitely a contender. Adding Porcello would be huge for them from a 2019 baseball standpoint. Of course, no clue if Philly has any interest in anything like that and the specifics aren't important. Just the concept of moving Porcello to a contender for a highly regarded starting pitching prospect. The Sox then roll with a rotation of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and Wright. Or if not Wright, then Brian Johnson or Velazquez or sign a much cheaper free agent (cheaper than Porcello) like Travis Wood.
Just a thought.
Travis Wood? He didn't even pitch in 2018 (knee) and has been pretty bad for awhile now. Never more than passable as a starter.
 

opes

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I’m not trying to save money, I’m trying to get an ace.
1. blake snell, and aaron nola and any of those is not going to get Beni in any universe. Statistically alone, Beni is better than McCututchen and cheaper. Pollack and Brantley are a joke compared with Beni. So I really dont see a decent comparison other that pulling names out of a hat.
 

chrisfont9

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How much do we think the Sox care about these tax thresholds? They paid $9.4m this year and won it all, which is surely worth the extra money. If they give Eovaldi $20m/ then the cost to them this coming year would be another 32%, or just under $7m. Even if they go over the $237m mark they only pay the 62% on the amount over that, like if they hit $244 then there's 62% of the extra $7m, another 4 or so. If they think they can win another WS with that rotation, that's still a pretty solid investment. And with so much coming off the books later they'd have a chance to reset things in the not too distant future. I guess I don't know how much it's worth it to them to win championships, but the NESN subscriptions alone have to be some serious money.
 

Bdanahy14

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How much do we think the Sox care about these tax thresholds? They paid $9.4m this year and won it all, which is surely worth the extra money. If they give Eovaldi $20m/ then the cost to them this coming year would be another 32%, or just under $7m. Even if they go over the $237m mark they only pay the 62% on the amount over that, like if they hit $244 then there's 62% of the extra $7m, another 4 or so. If they think they can win another WS with that rotation, that's still a pretty solid investment. And with so much coming off the books later they'd have a chance to reset things in the not too distant future. I guess I don't know how much it's worth it to them to win championships, but the NESN subscriptions alone have to be some serious money.

1. Next year it’s $226 and $246m
2. Both the base tax and the top tier tax increase as second offenders, so it would be 30% on first $20m over, 42% on next $20m, and then 75% after that.
3. Their would be another year with the draft hit.
4. Each year of continued tax increases the base.
5. “Having a chance” is they key phrase... how much risk are they willing to take in the coin flip of MLB playoffs.

This group has been willing to spend over the base multiple years in a row when they have a chance at a WS run. They were over every year from 2004-2007.

But it’s still an expensive business to run, nearly 50% labor cost, and there is so much risk in these contracts.

While history says they care less than most teams, they have still only paid $25M in tax since 2003. This year is a very big check for them to cut and the first time they have had to take the draft hit since new CBA.
 

Apisith

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Was it confirmed that we took a draft hit? Seems strange to go over by just a tiny bit and take the hit.
 

simplicio

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Keith Law mentioned in his chat today that he saw Darwinzon Hernandez in the AFL and wrote him up on ESPN insider, does anyone have access to that to give us a summary?
 

Devizier

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I wonder if the Red Sox can find another Velazquez this offseason. He wasn't a critical piece but it was nice to have a pitcher who could provide lots of useful filler innings throughout the season. He had a pretty good record in the Mexican Leagues and at age 27 was obviously post-prospect status when they signed him last year.
 
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Would signing someone like Nelson Cruz make sense? It would mean living with J.Ds defense in the outfield. Thus allowing a trade of JBJ while at possibly his peak value.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Here is his SoxProspects profile. I don't know much about him and haven't seen him pitch in person. But as @bosox79 points out he is one of the Sox top prospects (#5 on the SoxProspects list). He's a big old lefty with a fastball in the upper 90s.
He looks like he could be someone that could/will be developed as a starter but might go with the Earl Weaver system of bringing him up as a reliever then transitioning him back to a starter.
Start the season in AA as a starter then move him up to AAA after a month or so if he's looking great.
Keep him starting until the trade deadline (if the ML team's needs for BP help aren't addressed through trade) then knock him down to two inning stints at Pawtucket. Bring him up late August for the stretch run.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Lol. While it’s true that winning ALCS MVP (and hopefully also a GG) likely represents peak value for JBJ, one of the big elements of 2018’s success was the OF defense and it’s ability to suppress both hitters’ slugging and baserunners taking extra bases.

I’m not in favor of signing JBJ to a mega-deal, the way I am for Mookie, but neither would I be considering a breakup of the Killer B outfield before 2020. A good team needs hitters who are content hitting at the bottom of the order, too.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Would signing someone like Nelson Cruz make sense? It would mean living with J.Ds defense in the outfield. Thus allowing a trade of JBJ while at possibly his peak value.
I think Buzzkill was responding to the above post... I'll chime in here that keeping JD as a DH as much as possible next season will, like it did this past very successful season, keep him healthy. He's never, up until '18, played a full year. As a side benefit... it was also somewhat suppress his future pending FA value, I suspect, close to what he's currently being paid. If he has a mirror image of a season in '19 I think a discussion for a 4 year contract for $100 million would beat out any other suitors.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Lol. While it’s true that winning ALCS MVP (and hopefully also a GG) likely represents peak value for JBJ, one of the big elements of 2018’s success was the OF defense and it’s ability to suppress both hitters’ slugging and baserunners taking extra bases.

I’m not in favor of signing JBJ to a mega-deal, the way I am for Mookie, but neither would I be considering a breakup of the Killer B outfield before 2020. A good team needs hitters who are content hitting at the bottom of the order, too.
It would largely depend on the return for JBJ. It is a potential $10+ mil in savings and allows you to get full value out of Andrew Benintendi by playing him in RF or CF. I'm not in favor of breaking up the OF either, but trading JBJ makes more sense than trading Ben10.

The Sox should at least explore the trade market for Porcello, Xander and JBJ even if they don't trade them. I don't see any of them being on the team beyond 2019.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He looks like he could be someone that could/will be developed as a starter but might go with the Earl Weaver system of bringing him up as a reliever then transitioning him back to a starter.
Start the season in AA as a starter then move him up to AAA after a month or so if he's looking great.
Keep him starting until the trade deadline (if the ML team's needs for BP help aren't addressed through trade) then knock him down to two inning stints at Pawtucket. Bring him up late August for the stretch run.
He turns 22 in December so he's still pretty young too. He's most likely a bullpen arm but he finished the year strong. From July to season's end, he had a 1.50 era in 48ip with 70k/26bb and 0 HRA. That was with a .347 BAbip, so he wasn't lucky either. Over the course of the season, he only gave up 1 HR in 107 innings. For his career, he has given up 10 HRs in 352.0 IP and 1552 Batters Faced for a HRA% 0.06%.

His control is brutal though.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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JBJ could play 15 years here, retire, and get inducted into Cooperstown, and SoSH would still be suggesting that Dombrowski trade him
 

DJnVa

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Would signing someone like Nelson Cruz make sense? It would mean living with J.Ds defense in the outfield. Thus allowing a trade of JBJ while at possibly his peak value.
Why are we trading him? Simply because he's at peak value? He's at peak value to *us* too.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm not fundamentally against a hypothetical trade of JBJ but I certainly am if it requires putting JD in the field on a regular basis to get an aging bat like Cruz into the lineup. This team just won a World Series with several key defensive plays in the OF and it saw JBJ get multiple big hits. We'd all love 2016 JBJ to be a mainstay but even 2017-2018 JBJ has considerable value. And if he's batting 8th or whatever in your lineup, you're not suffering much.

It definitely would be interesting to see what his value is around the league. I bet DD is going to field some pretty compelling offers for many of his guys this offseason.
 

YTF

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So defensively, the outfield is set and if they re-sign Pearce I think the infield is mostly set. I would like to see some improvement behind the plate to help extend the batting order. Curious what J.T Realmuto will command. Perhaps more than the Sox will be willing to part with. Not a FA until 2021 so still relatively affordable from the cash side of things for the next two Seaons. Long term money should be eyes toward locking up some of the younger players if possible. Outside of that I think they'll need to figure out the closer spot and perhaps another bullpen arm, but I don't see much turnover in the roster.
 

YTF

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For those better informed, is there a limit as to how much cash a team might offer in trade for a player. With money coming off the books I'm wondering if a certain amount of cash might sweeten the pot for a possible Realmuto deal. I realize that Miami is likely to prefer young, cost controlled players, but just curious if cash considerations could help make something happen.
 

chawson

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For those better informed, is there a limit as to how much cash a team might offer in trade for a player. With money coming off the books I'm wondering if a certain amount of cash might sweeten the pot for a possible Realmuto deal. I realize that Miami is likely to prefer young, cost controlled players, but just curious if cash considerations could help make something happen.
I think the league would find it most palatable if it happened in the form of absorbing the big contracts of Chen (2/$42M), Prado (1/$15M), or Castro (1/$11M with a 1M buyout). A year of Starlin Castro playing second base for the Red Sox isn't the world's worst idea if it somehow helps land Realmuto (and Pedroia is still hurt), but I think the Marlins would prefer a better prospect haul.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Dombrowski said today that they like all three of their current catchers and that carrying all three on the roster again next year is very much in the cards. Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of trading one or more and acquiring someone like Realmuto, but for the time being, it seems the Sox are okay with their catching situation (even if some fans demand every position be filled with an all-star level slugger).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Dombrowski said today that they like all three of their current catchers and that carrying all three on the roster again next year is very much in the cards. Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of trading one or more and acquiring someone like Realmuto, but for the time being, it seems the Sox are okay with their catching situation (even if some fans demand every position be filled with an all-star level slugger).
There's a long way between "all-star level slugger" and the offense the Sox got from the C position this year.

And what Dombrowski said is the obviously right thing to say whether they're trying to acquire another catcher or not. I would translate it into English as "this is obviously a problem position for us, but we're doubtful we can solve the problem at an acceptable cost, so we're going to put a good face on it."
 

The Filthy One

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Dombrowski said today that they like all three of their current catchers and that carrying all three on the roster again next year is very much in the cards. Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of trading one or more and acquiring someone like Realmuto, but for the time being, it seems the Sox are okay with their catching situation (even if some fans demand every position be filled with an all-star level slugger).
I could be wrong, but I really don't see the team making any big changes this offseason. The team they put on the field won 108 games and more or less dominated the postseason (as much as it's possible to dominate a baseball postseason). Considering the injuries to Pedroia, Rodriguez, Devers, and Vazquez, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume some improvement from the team. Will it offset possible regressions from Betts, Martinez, and maybe Bogaerts? We'll see.

They will need to either keep Eovaldi or find a replacement 3-4 type, either keep Kimbrel/Kelly or find a replacement late-inning reliever...but otherwise, my hunch is they are going to roll with more or less the same team. And I'm good with that, even if it means a boring offseason.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Dombrowski said today that they like all three of their current catchers and that carrying all three on the roster again next year is very much in the cards. Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of trading one or more and acquiring someone like Realmuto, but for the time being, it seems the Sox are okay with their catching situation (even if some fans demand every position be filled with an all-star level slugger).
I was just coming here to talk about Realmuto.

He has two years of arbitration left and has already stated he won't sign a long term deal with the Marlins. Cot's figures he'll be in the $7 mil range next year. By virtue of being a Marlin he is likely available in the right deal. I'd focus on the bullpen first, but would certainly welcome this upgrade. At that point you'd probably only have to keep one of the other 3.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I was just coming here to talk about Realmuto.

He has two years of arbitration left and has already stated he won't sign a long term deal with the Marlins. Cot's figures he'll be in the $7 mil range next year. By virtue of being a Marlin he is likely available in the right deal. I'd focus on the bullpen first, but would certainly welcome this upgrade. At that point you'd probably only have to keep one of the other 3.
The problem with Realmuto is that the cost will be ginormous. If you think our farm system is thin now, wait till that deal goes through.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Part of the reason they had 3 catchers last year is because they had no one in Pawtucket. in 2019, they'll have Austin Rei. Granted he isn't that great defensively but he started to hit a little last year and was a former 3rd round pick. He did finish the year in a pretty bad slump.

Not sure what the Sox think of him, though.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Part of the reason they had 3 catchers last year is because they had no one in Pawtucket. in 2019, they'll have Austin Rei. Granted he isn't that great defensively but he started to hit a little last year and was a former 3rd round pick. He did finish the year in a pretty bad slump.

Not sure what the Sox think of him, though.
I'd imagine Rei is one of the players they add to the 40-man to protect from the rule 5 draft. Even if it isn't because they think highly of him but because adding a fourth catcher to the 40-man and having one that can be shuttled gives them a bit more flexibility should someone get hurt.
 

RedOctober3829

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Cora said that if Pedroia is healthy he's the leadoff hitter next year. So, what does the lineup right now look like? I put two different ones out. Obviously, if they re-sign Pearce then him and Nunez would play a lot against left handed pitching.
Option #1
Pedroia 2B
Benintendi LF
Betts RF
Martinez DH
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Moreland 1B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C

Option #2
Pedroia 2B
Betts CF
Martinez DH
Benintendi LF
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Moreland 1B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
 

nvalvo

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I have no idea who Darwinzon Hernandez is.
He's one of our better pitching prospects.

A 21 year old LHSP, he had a pretty decent year between Salem and Portland. 134 K in 107 IP, but also 66 BB. 95ish fastball, good curveball, work-in-progress changeup and slider.

Would signing someone like Nelson Cruz make sense? It would mean living with J.Ds defense in the outfield. Thus allowing a trade of JBJ while at possibly his peak value.
JDM is among the very worst defensive players in the league.

Taking Bradley out of CF and putting JDM in the OF costs us something in the ballpark of 25-30 runs. So you come out ahead on this only if you can add a DH who is worth at least 25-30 runs on offense more than you expect Bradley to be.

Given that Bradley has had an .800+ OPS since June, that's a high bar for me. Even so, Nelson Cruz' best season would probably qualify, but that was four years ago now. So the DH you add would have to be someone considerably better than 2019 Cruz — someone like 2015 Cruz. In the process, you get more expensive and give up years of control.

But you also get some sort of return for JBJ. If you can turn JBJ into a good pre-arb SP, maybe this makes sense, but there are a lot of ways this kind of move could leave you with a worse, less-flexible, more-expensive roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Cora said that if Pedroia is healthy he's the leadoff hitter next year. So, what does the lineup right now look like? I put two different ones out. Obviously, if they re-sign Pearce then him and Nunez would play a lot against left handed pitching.
Option #1
Pedroia 2B
Benintendi LF
Betts RF
Martinez DH
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Moreland 1B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C

Option #2
Pedroia 2B
Betts CF
Martinez DH
Benintendi LF
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Moreland 1B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
I believe what Cora said was if healthy, Pedroia would lead off on Opening Day but Betts would resume the role after that.

 

Al Zarilla

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I believe what Cora said was if healthy, Pedroia would lead off on Opening Day but Betts would resume the role after that.

After a sensational season (for the team and Mookie) in which Mookie batted leadoff all but 5 plate appearances, and with Pedroia batting second more than all other positions combined in his career, that makes sense. But, if Pedey doesn’t hit well, Cora probably adjusts.
 

plucy

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If Pedroia is healthy, then one catcher is gone if they sign a RHH 1B to platoon with Moreland. They could start the season with Swihart as the platoon partner, and fill later in the season if he doesn't produce offensively.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I love Pedey, but even if he's healthy, I can't be the only one who doesn't want him batting in the top half of the line-up. He battles and takes pitches, but his pop and speed have diminished and he is no longer a good base runner. He makes the top even more RH heavy. Let him bat lead-off in the home opener, but otherwise, let him lengthen the lineup in the 6th or 7th spot and keep Beni 2d.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This lineup would assume some improvement from Devers in his 2nd full season and assumes Pedroia is leadoff. Devers at 5 instead of Xander to break up 3 righties, and Vaz in front of Bradley to split up 2 lefties. I'd rather he not bat lead off but I'm not really sure where he should bat. 7th, probably.

Pedroia
Ben10
Betts
JD
Devers
Xander
Moreland
Vaz
Bradley
 

E5 Yaz

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Tony Renda (1 game) gets a ring. Is he the most obscure member of the team? Was there someone who Puffered (on the roster, but never got in a game)?
 

BaseballJones

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I love Pedey, but even if he's healthy, I can't be the only one who doesn't want him batting in the top half of the line-up. He battles and takes pitches, but his pop and speed have diminished and he is no longer a good base runner. He makes the top even more RH heavy. Let him bat lead-off in the home opener, but otherwise, let him lengthen the lineup in the 6th or 7th spot and keep Beni 2d.
I agree. If Pedroia is healthy, then I think they have to alter the catching situation. Let's assume 13 position players (since I think they tend towards 12 pitchers during the season):

C - Leon, Vazquez
IF - Pearce, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Bogaerts, Holt, Nunez
OF - Betts, Benintendi, Bradley, Martinez

The catching situation would be interesting. Not sure they want to stash Swihart in the minors but they could. I'd prefer to trade either Leon or Vazquez but there's some advantages to the situation they currently have.

Lineup vs. RHP
RF Betts
LF Benintendi
DH Martinez
SS Bogaerts
3b Devers
2b Pedroia
1b Moreland
C Leon
CF Bradley
Bench: Vazquez, Holt, Nunez, Pearce

Lineup vs. LHP
RF Betts
LF Benintendi
1b Pearce
DH Martinez
SS Bogaerts
3b Nunez (I'd still prefer Devers but whatever)
2b Pedroia
C Vazquez
CF Bradley
Bench: Leon, Holt, Devers, Moreland

FWIW, in 2017, in 463 PA, Pedroia hit 19 2b, 7 hr, and put up a slash of .293/.369/.392/.790. In 2018, Red Sox' 2b had 618 PA and hit 32 2b, 8 hr, and hit .252/.308/.350/.658. So a healthy Pedroia likely is a huge improvement offensively over what Sox' 2b put up this past season. Plus, he's still stellar defensively.
 

bosockboy

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Article I read via MLB push, DD sounded extremely cautious about Pedroia’s health. I don’t think he will be counted on our pencilled in for anything.
 

dhappy42

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Except that isn't true, either. How many top prospects are 24 and 25 years old in a strong system? They are young, they aren't that young.

The only guy who would qualify is Devers.

edit: Betts and X are both 26 now, actually.
You misunderstood me. Maybe my fault. I’m not saying Betts and X are as young as the typical AA or AAA prospect. I’m saying they’ve been in the majors for five and six years so they “seem” older than they actually are. Devers and Benintendi are 22 and 23, and they’ve been playing two and three years respectively. The top prospects in the Sox system have been called up young... and they’ve succeeded. That’s a good thing.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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This lineup would assume some improvement from Devers in his 2nd full season and assumes Pedroia is leadoff. Devers at 5 instead of Xander to break up 3 righties, and Vaz in front of Bradley to split up 2 lefties. I'd rather he not bat lead off but I'm not really sure where he should bat. 7th, probably.

Pedroia
Ben10
Betts
JD
Devers
Xander
Moreland
Vaz
Bradley
Pedroia has to bat down in the lineup at this point in his career. I think you keep the lineup as it was, with Pedey taking the Nunez spot down in the order.

Betts-Beni-JD-Moreland-Bogaerts-Devers-Pedroia-Vaz-Bradley vs RHP
Swap out a RHH 1B for Mitch and play Nunez over Devers vs LHP

If Devers takes off, you can switch him with Moreland