2018-19 Offseason Thread

BoSox Rule

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I’m guessing if we agree to a deal that it’ll be confirmed after the season begins so the new AAV kicks in next year instead of this year.

Also if Werner is saying this, it must mean that it’s close. I’m sure they have extension talks with every player every year but no point in mentioning anything unless it’s close.
The only way the AAV starts next year is if he signs the deal next year. And he isn’t gonna wait so he can fully tear and his shoulder and rehab as a Free Agent.
 

The Gray Eagle

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There may be another Sandy Leon "type" in Pawtucket this year in Juan Centeno, who is supposed to be a very good defensive catcher who made the Astros playoff roster when Cora was bench coach.

Of course like Leon, he can't hit at all, which is why he was available. His career offensive numbers are actually better than Leon's were last year, but basically everyone's were.

FWIW, Marcel actually projects a .688 OPS for Centeno in 225 PAs for this season, which would be good for a defense-first catcher. (They also project Leon, Vazquez, and Swihart to all be in that same general range in OPS, so who knows about their projections.)

Unfortunately, Centeno seems to be out of options and would have to clear waivers to get to Pawtucket. If they are going to trade a catcher it might be worth it to wait a bit and then see if they can get Centeno to clear waivers. If they could stash another Sandy Leon in Pawtucket, that could really make the actual Sandy Leon very much surplus to requirements.

As bad a hitter as Leon was last year, our pitchers seem to love throwing to him and I would bet there are teams out there that would really value that. There are plenty of defense-first catchers out there, but not many who were regulars on a dominant team that demolished the league and shredded everyone in the postseason. Maybe with that cachet he could bring back someone useful.
 

Plympton91

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The article says Centeno is a non-roster invitee, so he’s on a minor league contract and can be sent down from spring training. The question would be when or if he has opt outs if he isn’t in the majors. And, if he is ever added to the 25 man roster due to trade or injury, he would then have to clear waivers to be sent back down.
 

67WasBest

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The article says Centeno is a non-roster invitee, so he’s on a minor league contract and can be sent down from spring training. The question would be when or if he has opt outs if he isn’t in the majors. And, if he is ever added to the 25 man roster due to trade or injury, he would then have to clear waivers to be sent back down.
He has no opt outs in his contract. He's in the organization all year if they want him.
 

The Gray Eagle

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That's great news on Centeno, we should have him stashed in AAA all year, ready to bring up if/when needed.

He looked pretty solid behind the plate yesterday, and weirdly even had some mannerisms that looked similar to Leon's, with some of the gestures he was making back there, and the way he tossed the ball back to the pitcher.

He had a hit, too, for the little that is worth.
 

Plympton91

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Yeah, those 64 ABs were damning...
I don’t know how predictive they are, but they killed his overall line last season. And judging from the vibes Cora is sending about keeping Sandy Leon and having the equivalent of a pitcher in the lineup 30-40% of the time, the Red Sox see the overall line as determinative more so than the platoon splits.

I don’t care what the defensive difference is, a 730 OPS vs a 550 OPS is too much to ignore.
 

Lowrielicious

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I don’t care what the defensive difference is, a 730 OPS vs a 550 OPS is too much to ignore.
180 points of OPS does sound significant on its own. On the other hand, it is 180 points in just one spot in the lineup. Overall that drops the team OPS down about 20 points.

Measuring any catchers defensive contribution is as divisive as any subject in the game. That being said, a superior defensive catcher having a greater than 20 point impact on the opponents overall OPS over 9 innings isn’t hard to believe.
 

Plympton91

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180 points of OPS does sound significant on its own. On the other hand, it is 180 points in just one spot in the lineup. Overall that drops the team OPS down about 20 points.

Measuring any catchers defensive contribution is as divisive as any subject in the game. That being said, a superior defensive catcher having a greater than 20 point impact on the opponents overall OPS over 9 innings isn’t hard to believe.
I find it hard to believe that would be something we’ve learned from statistical analysis in the past 3 years that somehow eluded baseball professionals for 140 years.

I’m more inclined than average to believe there’s something to a pitcher/catcher relationship, but the contributions of catchers’ defense seem wildly overstated relative to common sense. I mean, if these numbers the algorithms are spitting out are remotely true, then we should start developing catchers to be the same kind of specialists as pitchers.
 

soxhop411

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I find it hard to believe that would be something we’ve learned from statistical analysis in the past 3 years that somehow eluded baseball professionals for 140 years.

I’m more inclined than average to believe there’s something to a pitcher/catcher relationship, but the contributions of catchers’ defense seem wildly overstated relative to common sense. I mean, if these numbers the algorithms are spitting out are remotely true, then we should start developing catchers to be the same kind of specialists as pitchers.

Check out the ST thread. Cora sort of hinted that the two catchers that will be staying will be the ones that the pitchers are comfortable with.

Which means Leon and and Vaz will most likely stay.

Though I think they are going to get input from every pitcher before they make a decision.
 
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Plympton91

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Check out the ST thread. Cora sort of hinted that the two catchers that will be staying will be the ones that the pitchers are comfortable with.

Which means Leon and and Vaz will most likely stay.

Though I think they are going to get input from every pitcher before they make a decision.
I saw that. That’s what I’m referencing. Hope the computer code that suddenly shows catcher framing is the most valuable skill in all of sports doesn’t have any bugs in it.
 

Lowrielicious

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I saw that. That’s what I’m referencing. Hope the computer code that suddenly shows catcher framing is the most valuable skill in all of sports doesn’t have any bugs in it.
There is a lot more to catcher defensive contributions than framing.
 

Reverend

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I find it hard to believe that would be something we’ve learned from statistical analysis in the past 3 years that somehow eluded baseball professionals for 140 years.

I’m more inclined than average to believe there’s something to a pitcher/catcher relationship, but the contributions of catchers’ defense seem wildly overstated relative to common sense. I mean, if these numbers the algorithms are spitting out are remotely true, then we should start developing catchers to be the same kind of specialists as pitchers.
The fact that after 140 years and tens of millions of dollars and more poured into it and we still aren't sure how much catchers are worth is pretty much why baseball is awesome.
 

Reverend

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I saw that. That’s what I’m referencing. Hope the computer code that suddenly shows catcher framing is the most valuable skill in all of sports doesn’t have any bugs in it.
Framing was a thing.

In fact, it was such a thing that it got the attention of the league and the umpires and forced them to get their act together. So, in fact, the fact that framing is now not a thing is actually evidence that it WAS a thing, because the point is that it was such a thing that it showed up other people so much that those other people had to work double time to make it so that it was no longer a thing.
 

Saints Rest

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Changing the subject a bit, but staying in the realm of roster construction: who do we think claims the last roster spot.
I’m assuming the following:
12 pitchers;
2 catchers (TBD which)
4 OF (Betts, JBJ, Beni, JDM)
7 IF (Mitch, Pearce, Pedey, Bog, Devers, Holt, Nunez)
Possibilities:
-13th pitcher
- 3rd catcher
- Another OF (Brentz)
- Other

Thoughts?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Changing the subject a bit, but staying in the realm of roster construction: who do we think claims the last roster spot.
I’m assuming the following:
12 pitchers;
2 catchers (TBD which)
4 OF (Betts, JBJ, Beni, JDM)
7 IF (Mitch, Pearce, Pedey, Bog, Devers, Holt, Nunez)
Possibilities:
-13th pitcher
- 3rd catcher
- Another OF (Brentz)
- Other

Thoughts?
Assuming what you're assuming gives them 25 players. Where's the question?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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A 13th pitcher instead of 7 IF might happen, if Pedey isn't quite ready or if Nunez has issues
I've read suggestions that Pedroia and Wright might start the season on the DL just to ease them in. Unlike typical seasons, the Sox start with 11 straight games without a day off. Makes it a bit tougher to carry a guy who may not be able to play every day right out of the gate. They're also supposed to starting the year with a 6-man rotation so an extra pitcher might be handy to keep the bullpen fully staffed.
 

YTF

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A 13th pitcher instead of 7 IF might happen, if Pedey isn't quite ready or if Nunez has issues
Originally I was going to suggest a 5th outfielder given that the early season schedule usually has a couple extra off days and figured 12 pitchers would be fine. That said, the Sox open with eleven days straight on a west coast swing. Yikes!!! Has to be to accommodate the London trip, yes?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Originally I was going to suggest a 5th outfielder given that the early season schedule usually has a couple extra off days and figured 12 pitchers would be fine. That said, the Sox open with eleven days straight on a west coast swing. Yikes!!! Has to be to accommodate the London trip, yes?
16 of their first 22 games on the road, 11 on the west coast, 2 vs. the Yankees, and 3 at the Trop. If they come out of that stretch above .500, I will be a very happy camper.
 

edoug

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Originally I was going to suggest a 5th outfielder given that the early season schedule usually has a couple extra off days and figured 12 pitchers would be fine. That said, the Sox open with eleven days straight on a west coast swing. Yikes!!! Has to be to accommodate the London trip, yes?
All road games against the AL and NL West teams, excluding Texas and Houston, are going to be played during two long road trips. MLB scheduled them as far apart as they could. That with the London trip makes their travel schedule a bit easier. But harder as well.
 

nvalvo

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Starting on the West Coast seems like a good schedule to me. It reduces the number of in-season multi-hour time zone jumps, and those markets rain out infrequently, which averts the risk of makeups or just needing to play early April games in say, Chicago or Detroit. As many games in domes or sun belt stadia early on as possible, is what I say.

It looks like they're playing a few exhibitions with the Cubs — in Arizona, I think — on the way out to Seattle.
 

YTF

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16 of their first 22 games on the road, 11 on the west coast, 2 vs. the Yankees, and 3 at the Trop. If they come out of that stretch above .500, I will be a very happy camper.
I'm a bit more optimistic. Eleven straight on the road with no days off is a Helluva way to start the season, but look at their first 17 games. They have 4 against Seattle who's seems to be in a rebuild, 4 against Oakland who doesn't seem to have a pitching staff, 3 against Arizona who doesn't look great, then home for 2 games in 4 days vs. Toronto and 4 against Baltimore. Of course, the games have to be played, but I think 12-5 or 11-6 is a fairly reasonable expectation before 2 in the toilet and 3 at the Trop.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I saw that. That’s what I’m referencing. Hope the computer code that suddenly shows catcher framing is the most valuable skill in all of sports doesn’t have any bugs in it.
It's one of those skills that could be made obsolete at any moment once the technology is there. I think at its height, the framing stuff was incredibly overrated. Vazquez was supposed to be Jesus.
 

Plympton91

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I'm a bit more optimistic. Eleven straight on the road with no days off is a Helluva way to start the season, but look at their first 17 games. They have 4 against Seattle who's seems to be in a rebuild, 4 against Oakland who doesn't seem to have a pitching staff, 3 against Arizona who doesn't look great, then home for 2 games in 4 days vs. Toronto and 4 against Baltimore. Of course, the games have to be played, but I think 12-5 or 11-6 is a fairly reasonable expectation before 2 in the toilet and 3 at the Trop.
That would be about a 105 win pace. So, Yeah, if we think they’re better than last year, that’s not unrealistic.
 

Plympton91

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If you want to project out based on those five teams, have at it. At the same time when someone has 3 HRs after three games, figure them for 162 on the season.
I’m just saying, they win 108 games last year, so playing at roughly that pace against a bunch of bottom dwellers would. Not be a surprise at all.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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That would be about a 105 win pace. So, Yeah, if we think they’re better than last year, that’s not unrealistic.
Has less to do with win pace and more to do with playing a bunch of mediocre teams to start. Even if they start off on a 105 win pace because the teams they play stink doesn’t mean they’ll maintain it. Of course it’s entirely possible.
 

nvalvo

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Right. I'd judge that the reason the Sox are unlikely to win 108 this season is because three of their AL East opponents should be improved (and the remaining one can't get much worse).
  • The Yankees look very good in all phases. If they're healthy, they should be a top-5 offense with a top-5 pitching staff: that's a very serious division contender and indeed World Series contender.
  • The Rays likewise look like an excellent club. If their injured pitching prospects (i.e. Brent Honeywell) come back healthy and effective, they could be really tremendous. You wouldn't project it this way, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they are the best team in the division, albeit with more of a defensive orientation than NY or BOS.
  • Toronto will start terribly, but they are going to be promoting some real difference makers (Guerrero, obviously, but also Jansen, Reid-Foley and Bichette). If Clay Buchholz can keep his shoulder held together (a huge if, obviously — if we had a nickel for every time we've said that...), they could be an interesting club by August.
  • The Orioles are just a garbage fire. It's sort of depressing.
Those 38 games against NY and TB are likely to shake out within a few games of .500. If we assuming .500, that gives Boston 124 games to play .717 ball to match 108. That's a tall order, obviously.
 

moondog80

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Sox discussing trades for Sandy Leon, I guess this is good news for Blake Swihart.
 

EpsteinsGorillaSuit

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Similar win pace as last year? Crazy. They were an outstanding team whose pythagorean record was 103 wins. And they go into the seasons with serious questions about the bullpen, making it even less likely they will again outperform their expected W-L record. I think this is still basically a 100-win team. But it is hard enough to win that many, and I think underperformance at 90 wins is more likely than 105+.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Similar win pace as last year? Crazy. They were an outstanding team whose pythagorean record was 103 wins. And they go into the seasons with serious questions about the bullpen, making it even less likely they will again outperform their expected W-L record. I think this is still basically a 100-win team. But it is hard enough to win that many, and I think underperformance at 90 wins is more likely than 105+.
They were also an outstanding team that completely took their foot off the gas at the end of the season (while resting their ace as well) which everyone conveniently forgets when they lean on pythag to try and prove they weren't as good as their 108 win total.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
They were also an outstanding team that completely took their foot off the gas at the end of the season (while resting their ace as well) which everyone conveniently forgets when they lean on pythag to try and prove they weren't as good as their 108 win total.
Can you provide specifics behind your claim that they "completely took their foot off the gas at the end of the season"? Because I'm not seeing them. They didn't clinch the division until game 153, and didn't clinch home field till three days later. They continued playing their regulars with very few exceptions right to the end. And they "rested their ace" because he was hurt, not because they had the season in the bag.
 

DirtyWater90

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Yeah, I’m not sure why there still exists a narrative where Sale was being ‘rested’ as opposed to actually being hurt (he was) and thus less effective than normal.
 

TimScribble

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Huge gasp in crowd and in normally quiet press box as a line drive came straight at pitcher Rick Porcello’s head and glanced off. He went to ground but got up quickly. Medical staff came out to assess. He remains in game.

Will always be scariest thing I see in baseball.

Seems like he is ok, but still scary to hear.