2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Seems scary to give him up then. Why not just release Ellsbury?
Well, they have a lot of pitching prospects, but presumably a deal like this would be to free up payroll in order to add someone else, possibly Darvish. Would NY be allowed to pay all of Ellsbury’s salary in 2019/2020 if MIL picked up his whole 2018 salary? That seems like it would be worth Abreu, curious to see if anything comes of it.
 

terrynever

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Seems scary to give him up then. Why not just release Ellsbury?
Cashman signed him. Doubt he would admit his mistake. Brian will continue to say Ellsbury can be helpful as backup CF, pinch runner, etc.
To his credit, Ellsbury was a pretty good teammate and bit player once he got healthy last season. If he was making the minimum, Ellsbury would be a nice spare part.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Well, they have a lot of pitching prospects, but presumably a deal like this would be to free up payroll in order to add someone else, possibly Darvish. Would NY be allowed to pay all of Ellsbury’s salary in 2019/2020 if MIL picked up his whole 2018 salary? That seems like it would be worth Abreu, curious to see if anything comes of it.
That would be no different than the Yankees eating 2/3 of his contract each year since the AAV would be the same. The Brewers paying all of his 2018 salary only takes his whole salary off the Yankees payroll if they're eating all of 2019 and 2020 too.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I don't want to give up Abreu. This seems foolish.
What if it allowed them to sign Darvish for 5/125 while still staying 15-20M under $197M? That would give them Severino/Darvish/Tanaka/Gray/Sabathia, with Montgomery/Adams/Sheffield (plus Cessa/German) in AAA and other guys like Perez and Tate and Acevedo still hanging around, that's a lot of pitching depth.
 

jon abbey

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That would be no different than the Yankees eating 2/3 of his contract each year since the AAV would be the same. The Brewers paying all of his 2018 salary only takes his whole salary off the Yankees payroll if they're eating all of 2019 and 2020 too.
Are you positive that this is true, or is that just how teams generally structure these moves, evenly spreading out the money they pay? I'm going to research this now, but maybe you know for sure.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Are you positive that this is true, or is that just how teams generally structure these moves, evenly spreading out the money they pay? I'm going to research this now, but maybe you know for sure.
AAV is average annual value. This is why front or back loaded contracts don't change in AAV over time.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman signed him. Doubt he would admit his mistake. Brian will continue to say Ellsbury can be helpful as backup CF, pinch runner, etc.
To his credit, Ellsbury was a pretty good teammate and bit player once he got healthy last season. If he was making the minimum, Ellsbury would be a nice spare part.
You know I love you, Terry, but I disagree on all of this. Cashman doesn't care about "admitting his mistake", and honestly not so sure Ellsbury has a place on this team even at a minimum salary, since he has no upside. Especially with the DH spot open, there will be plenty of ABs for someone in that spot, and it'd be nice to have someone with more upside like Clint Frazier there.
 

jon abbey

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So this doesn't come up very often, because usually when teams pick up part of the salary of someone they're moving, they just spread it out evenly over the remainder of the deal (like MIA did with the Stanton move). But here is a case where it is uneven, SD is picking up $2.5M off Gyorko's deal this year and $5M in 2019, and that is how it is listed in the tax tracker also. I think (still not sure) that what I suggested above would be a legal move, it's different from signing an initial contract and the AAV (I think).


 

terrynever

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You know I love you, Terry, but I disagree on all of this. Cashman doesn't care about "admitting his mistake", and honestly not so sure Ellsbury has a place on this team even at a minimum salary, since he has no upside. Especially with the DH spot open, there will be plenty of ABs for someone in that spot, and it'd be nice to have someone with more upside like Clint Frazier there.
At least give me "good teammate."

I just don't think Cashman will release Ellsbury. He will keep boosting him up, hoping someone will take him off their hands.
 

Wingack

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People over on NYYF are kicking around the idea of Ellsbury/Abreu and getting back Braun. Similar money apparently, but Braun a much better bat at this point.
 

jon abbey

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But then you’d have to trade Gardner too, that doesn’t make sense to me.
 

jon abbey

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But they already have Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Gardner for OF/DH, if you add Braun, one of those guys has to sit.

Also if you move both Gardner and Ellsbury, I'm not sure who the backup CF is (Jake Cave?), I really don't see any chance that Braun makes sense for this roster.
 

wallypip

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I am not as down on Ellsbury as most--meaning I wouldn't want to see him moved just for the sake of it. Like everyone else, I hate his contract. I prefer Gardner. I'd rather see Hicks continue to improve. I want to see Frazier. In a perfect world, the Yankees will rotate four outfielders with the DH spot and Frazier will continue to improve in AAA and eventually replace Gardner.

However, Gardner is also 34 years old. Hicks has only been good at the plate for half a season and still is a lot stronger vs. lefties. I don't want to see Frazier in fifth outfielder role because he won't see playing time. I would not be a bit surprised if Ellsbury gets regular time in CF this season either because of injury or in a platoon with Hicks. if the Yankees can shed enough of his salary, then they should move him. Otherwise, I would still hold on to him and I certainly wouldn't trade one of my top prospects to make a deal happen.
 

jon abbey

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17 days until pitchers and catchers, and it currently looks like Cashman is going to give a lot of kids chances to win jobs in Florida, very exciting. The difference this year is that a lot more young talent has moved onto the 40 man, the Scranton team looks to be hilariously loaded to start the season. The Orioles took Nestor Cortes from NY in the rule 5 draft, and he might have a better chance to make the O's rotation than he would have Scranton's (right now I'd say Cessa, German, Adams, Sheffield, Acevedo or Tate).

Also I don't know if he will stick on the 40 man, but another guy NY got this offseason has at the very least an alltime classic name (and a ton of power), I am rooting for this guy to play well and stick around:

 

jon abbey

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Todd Frazier goes off the board and Miguel Andujar gets a little bit closer to being NY's 3B for most of the season.
 

Big John

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Todd Frazier goes off the board and Miguel Andujar gets a little bit closer to being NY's 3B for most of the season.
Jacoby Ellsbury for David Wright, anyone? Wright's career may be over, but a chunk of his salary will be covered by insurance. The Yankees save both cap dollars and real dollars. Meanwhile, the Mets need a center fielder.

Yes, I realize that the Mets are historically cheap. Maybe the Yankees agree to pick up some of Ellsbury's money.
 

DanoooME

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Jacoby Ellsbury for David Wright, anyone? Wright's career may be over, but a chunk of his salary will be covered by insurance. The Yankees save both cap dollars and real dollars. Meanwhile, the Mets need a center fielder.

Yes, I realize that the Mets are historically cheap. Maybe the Yankees agree to pick up some of Ellsbury's money.
It would have to be virtually all of it, since they have a former first round pick (Brandon Nimmo) almost ready and Juan Lagares, who is superior to Ellsbury in the field and makes a whole lot less.
 

Big John

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Well, Lagares has missed alot of games over the last two years, and they would shed Wright's $20M of dead money (and they will be paying him through 2025 because a chunk of the money was deferred) in exchange for $21M for a guy who can actually play.

On second thought, my proposal is not so hot for the Yankees.
 

jon abbey

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I thought of that one a month or two ago but I don't think I posted it because on top of everything else, no way in hell Mets are trading with the Yankees, as we saw last summer.
 

jon abbey

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Generally not a big fan of baseball projection systems, but the PECOTA predictions are out today and they have NY 9 games ahead of BOS, which I think is more accurate than the Fangraphs ones that people have been citing all winter that have both teams at 91 wins (I would guess the difference now is somewhere in the middle of those two).

Anyway, they have HOU (99 wins), LAD (99), CLE (97) and NYY (96) well ahead of everyone else, next are WAS and CHC tied at 89 wins.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
 

jon abbey

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Mike Axisa said in his mailbag today that because of his 20 days up last year, Miguel Andujar would need to stay down for 37 days for an extra year of control, I didn't realize it would have to be that long.

So now I think it's pretty clear that NY would like to start the season with Andujar at 3B, Wade at 2B, and Torreyes as backup, I think they have the edge all else being relatively equal in camp. Torres will get the Kris Bryant treatment and probably be up by May 1, big ABs for Wade in his Yankee career before then, Gleyber comin'.

http://riveraveblues.com/2018/02/mailbag-ellsbury-luxury-tax-torres-andujar-stanton-darvish-166062/
 

jon abbey

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Ken Rosenthal tweeted that NY never made Darvish an actual offer despite all of the rumors. I think Cashman wants Fulmer mid-season and will pay up to get him if he looks like an ace for the first few months of the season, and in the meantime he can wait and see exactly what he has in house already.
 

jon abbey

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Scott Boras' mouthpiece posts kind of fake news about a Scott Boras client who seems to have no market, shocker. :)
 

jon abbey

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I don't think it's about the money, they need to see what they have in Andujar before Machado/Donaldson hit FA next winter, and if they're going to bring in an established vet, it needs to be someone with more positional flexibility than Moustakas. Honestly if you told Cashman today you could have Moustakas on a 1/5 deal but you can't trade him during the season, I'm not sure he'd say yes.
 

Wingack

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Well, but maybe they can grab him for 2/25 million. He could play 3rd/1st/DH this year. It wouldn't necessarily take them out of the Machado market next year as Gardner could walk and Stanton and Judge could play in the OF every day opening up DH.

We also don't completely know what 155 games of Greg Bird looks like, or whether he can even stay healthy.

I don't know, I see options.
 

jon abbey

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He's not very good defensively at 3B and he's never played an inning at first base, plus Cashman has been staying away from LHH who can be easily shifted on.
 

Lowrielicious

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On the subject of DH, barring an outfielder being traded, isn't the DH slot already overstocked even without Moose entering the equation?
You want Stanton and Judge hitting everyday. Sanchez had 66 ABs at DH last year also for a tidy .921 OPS.
 

jon abbey

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On the subject of DH, barring an outfielder being traded, isn't the DH slot already overstocked even without Moose entering the equation?
You want Stanton and Judge hitting everyday. Sanchez had 66 ABs at DH last year also for a tidy .921 OPS.
Yeah, they definitely don't need a DH, but Moustakas would be the everyday 3B presumably and Andujar would have to wait. I don't see it happening though, they passed on Todd Frazier for that role, and he is likely a better player plus seemed to be a positive clubhouse influence.
 

jon abbey

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No one seems to want Moustakas though, so it will be interesting how that plays out.
 

Lowrielicious

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No one seems to want Moustakas though, so it will be interesting how that plays out.
Very interesting. He picked the wrong season to have a career year (well kinda. Close to doubling his previous HR high, but his wRC+ barely above last years, and well below the previous years).
 

Murderer's Crow

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You also have to figure that if Cashman passed on Nunez and Frazier, he must believe he has the in-house solution and I would agree. Both of those positions simply need to provide defensive value and both players (assuming Torres & And) can take their time to develop offensively. Anything they provide offensively would be infinitely better than what we received last year out of line-up holes (DH, 1B, 3B, CF).

I seriously cannot wait to see what this lineup does without the complete cluster of Headley, Carter, Ellsbury, Frazier, and Holliday taking ABs.
 

jon abbey

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I don't think it's exactly that he believes he has the in-house solution at 3B in Andujar, but he thinks Andujar is good enough and ready enough to get a few hundred ABs at least and get an idea of what they actually have in him before Machado/Donaldson become available next winter. If 2 of 3 of Torres/Andujar/Wade are total duds, they can get a short-term fix midseason like they did last year with Frazier, but I'm pretty optimistic about Torres/Andujar working out well.
 

DanoooME

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They can certainly take the better of Torres and Andujar if either one falters in ST since Drury plays 2B, 3B, and OF.
 

jon abbey

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Jabari Blash traded to the Angels for cash or a PTBNL after being DFAd in the wake of the Drury trade. Billy Eppler is happy to take anyone who falls off NY's super deep 40 man roster at this point, maybe they can get something for Torreyes.