2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Cashman only has one SP upgrade slot left this offseason, so if Cole is who he thinks should be that guy for talent/cost combo, got to trust him. Maybe it is to try to get DET to come back with a lower price on Fulmer...
 

Lorca's Tribble

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I wouldn't mind an 'overpay' for a player who was more certain to produce top results, who has more years of control, or more promise. Michael Fulmer, perhaps.
 

jon abbey

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I wouldn't mind an 'overpay' for a player who was more certain to produce top results, who has more years of control, or more promise. Michael Fulmer, perhaps.
Yeah, in Cashman's shoes I would wait and see how some of these guys start the season, lots of different questions with Cole and Archer and Fulmer, but maybe see who is available who is actually pitching like a top guy after two months and then offer a fair top guy trade value for that.

But on the flip side adding another starter before the season would let them move guys like German and Acevedo (both now on the 40 man) into Chad Green-type multi-inning relief roles, and then they can trade Warren/Betances and open up spots ahead of Green/Kahnle/Robertson/Chapman, a potential bullpen where everyone has hit 100 except Robertson:

Acevedo
German
Heller
Green
Kahnle
Robertson
Chapman
 

terrynever

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Barring injury, Yanks do not need to make any deals until late July.
Patience is a virtue with this roster. Just let the kids grow up.
 

E5 Yaz

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New York now offering Ellsbury and one of Billy Martin's old spittoons for Cole and $25M
 

jon abbey

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If TB is genuinely interested in moving Archer for a good package, I would think they might try to step in here because I’m not sure they could do better than a Frazier/Adams/Wade package plus Cashman might even add in more since Archer has four years of control to Cole’s two. Personally I’d like to see these guys pitch in April/May before pulling the trigger on either, but Cashman seems to want to get one this winter if possible.
 

jon abbey

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Although now I see that Archer has been consistently horrible against BOS, 2-12 career with a 5.45 ERA in 19 starts, so maybe keep holding out for Fulmer.
 

Lorca's Tribble

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The latest rumor is Frazier/Adams/Andujar for Cole and Josh Harrison (or alternatively Adams/Andujar for Cole).

Harrison is due 32M+ over the next 3 seasons. I trust Cashman, but I don't like either version of this trade. It's not an unfair ask on their part, I just don't think Cole is so necessary that I'd give up on 2 or 3 top prospects that are major league ready.

EDIT: Harrison is only signed for 2018, with 10M and 11M team options for 19 and 20. So they could potentially sign a new 3B like Machado next season and let Harrison go. Still wouldn't do it though, and would rather play both Adams and Andujar and take my chances.

Unless they feel that odds of all their prospects panning out is slim and want to cash out now. Just don't feel like Cole is the guy to cash out for.
 
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j-man

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why not sign a jake attetta for 1 year or sign davish for 3y 60 mil 10 mil year 1 25 mil year 2 and 3 and keep the kids
 

jon abbey

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The latest rumor is Frazier/Adams/Andujar for Cole and Josh Harrison (or alternatively Adams/Andujar for Cole).
Please link this kind of thing next time, thanks.

I highly doubt Cashman would give up that much, although if he thinks Adams is a reliever and he knows he will get Machado in 2019, it is a lot less pain. I don't think this Cole trade will happen, I think he will be moved somewhere else or held onto at least to start the season
 

jon abbey

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why not sign a jake attetta for 1 year or sign davish for 3y 60 mil 10 mil year 1 25 mil year 2 and 3 and keep the kids
Neither of those guys will be anywhere near that cheap and if they were, they would have many many suitors even with how many teams are at or close to the limits of their intended budgets.

Also it doesn't matter how you try to cleverly spread it out, a 3/60 deal is still a 20 AAV each year.
 

jon abbey

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I have seen Rivero rumored as a possibility a few places (nowhere 'official') and while that is probably just wishful thinking by Yankee fans, he was a guy I talked about targeting last year, as NY has no hardthrowing lefties except Chapman and Sheffield, he would be a great weapon as a setup man and make it even easier to move Betances and/or Warren. Frazier/Adams/Andujar/Betances for Cole/Rivero/Harrison is pretty interesting, although NY would be pushing the $197M number then, I think that would put them around $190-192M.
 

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Rivero was an elite reliever last year.
I’d imagine if they are getting him and Cole they will have to be giving up a haul, no?
 

jon abbey

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That is three top 100 guys plus two years of Betances, that seems like a haul to me, but whatever, just throwing stuff out there.
 

jon abbey

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Sabathia signing is official at 1/10, I haven't seen anyone list the potential incentives there yet. The 40 man roster is full again.
 

jon abbey

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Not a big surprise here, not sure anyone was picking up even 3/15 on his deal even if he did waive it. So he is a $22M 5th or 6th OF and pinch-runner for now, spring training should be interesting.

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 56m56 minutes ago

Per @GeorgeAKingIII, Scott Boras has confirmed #Yankees CF Jacoby Ellsbury won't waive his no trade clause. Can't say I'm shocked: A) he's on a team that's World Series favorites and B) Aaron Hicks has had issues staying healthy.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Not a big surprise here, not sure anyone was picking up even 3/15 on his deal even if he did waive it. So he is a $22M 5th or 6th OF and pinch-runner for now, spring training should be interesting.

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 56m56 minutes ago

Per @GeorgeAKingIII, Scott Boras has confirmed #Yankees CF Jacoby Ellsbury won't waive his no trade clause. Can't say I'm shocked: A) he's on a team that's World Series favorites and B) Aaron Hicks has had issues staying healthy.
Well, he can endure the embarrassment of being released or sitting on his ass. Scott Boras can enjoy not getting a NTC from the Yankees for awhile.
 

jon abbey

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I think Darvish would necessitate Gardner being moved, and then Clint stays (unless they really love McKinney and want to move Clint anyway).
 

jon abbey

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I doubt CC will hit these innings incentives but NY will have to budget him for $12M just in case:

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 24m24 minutes ago

CC Sabathia: 10M salary, 500K for 155, 165, 175, 185 IP. Also gets full no- trade protection. #yankees

Also, excited about this, I have been talking about this possibility since the season ended, but this is the first vaguely official (Federico is reliable) confirmation that NY is thinking about it too:

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 3h3 hours ago

Source: The #Yankees are looking to upgrade their backup catching situation discussed free agent Alex Avila. They "like his left-handed bat and think he can be a good compliment to [Gary] Sanchez."
 

jon abbey

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Seven weeks to pitchers and catchers and Cashman still looks like he will give Andujar and Torres every chance to win the 3B/2B spots out of spring training (Torres will almost certainly be sent down anyway for a few weeks to get an extra year of control a la Kris Bryant, but also he did miss the second half of last year and hasn't played much in AAA yet so it's legit). I also think that any rotation upgrade will likely come in July, until then Domingo German is 6th and Adams is 7th and Sheffield is 8th, with Cessa maybe in there somewhere too.

MILB.com put out some AL East possible rookie projections today, interestingly they have Andujar projected better this year than Torres and German and Acevedo better than Adams and Sheffield, they even think German could give Montgomery a run for the 5th spot in spring training:

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/2018-prospect-projections-american-league-east-rookies/c-263950752
 

wallypip

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Seven weeks to pitchers and catchers and Cashman still looks like he will give Andujar and Torres every chance to win the 3B/2B spots out of spring training (Torres will almost certainly be sent down anyway for a few weeks to get an extra year of control a la Kris Bryant, but also he did miss the second half of last year and hasn't played much in AAA yet so it's legit). I also think that any rotation upgrade will likely come in July, until then Domingo German is 6th and Adams is 7th and Sheffield is 8th, with Cessa maybe in there somewhere too.
Yes. I think Cashman is being smart by waiting on the market. For one thing, he will make whoever signs someone like Darvish or trades for someone like Cole pay a higher price. If the right starter doesn't come around now, he can upgrade at an infield position and/or backup catcher at the current budget.

BTW, I'm not counting Tyler Wade out of the running at 2B. I know they like him more as a super utility, but he has a major league glove and plus speed. There's nothing wrong with that at the bottom of the order.
 

terrynever

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Yes. I think Cashman is being smart by waiting on the market. For one thing, he will make whoever signs someone like Darvish or trades for someone like Cole pay a higher price. If the right starter doesn't come around now, he can upgrade at an infield position and/or backup catcher at the current budget.

BTW, I'm not counting Tyler Wade out of the running at 2B. I know they like him more as a super utility, but he has a major league glove and plus speed. There's nothing wrong with that at the bottom of the order.
Tyler Wase is exactly the guy Cashman will use as a placeholder at second base. GM is playing the patient long game. Torres needs at least a month in the minors, and it buys an extra year for the Yanks.
Third base is another story. Interesting to see how Cash handles it.
 

Big John

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Third base is another story. Interesting to see how Cash handles it.
There are certainly plenty of options. Moustakas, Frazier and Nunez are still unsigned. Then Cashman has Andujar, Wade, Torres, Torreyes and Thairo Estrada on the roster.
 

jon abbey

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Wade is the interesting one, he was a borderline top 100 guy coming into last season (BP had him at 101) and he was great in Scranton, a .842 OPS in 377 PAs (by comparison, Torres was at .863 in 94 PAs before getting hurt and Andujar was at .866 in 244 PAs).

The Yankee front office people made a point of mentioning Wade quite a bit in their interviews on YES around the winter meetings, I think he will break camp as the placeholder 2B until Torres is deemed ready, and Torreyes or Andujar will be the 3B depending on how they look in the spring.
 

Big John

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Wade bats from the left side and is a patient hitter. I could easily see him winning an infield job.
 

terrynever

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Wade is the interesting one, he was a borderline top 100 guy coming into last season (BP had him at 101) and he was great in Scranton, a .842 OPS in 377 PAs (by comparison, Torres was at .863 in 94 PAs before getting hurt and Andujar was at .866 in 244 PAs).

The Yankee front office people made a point of mentioning Wade quite a bit in their interviews on YES around the winter meetings, I think he will break camp as the placeholder 2B until Torres is deemed ready, and Torreyes or Andujar will be the 3B depending on how they look in the spring.
Wade has a chance to become an impactful big league player and possibly a good trade piece for Cashman. Basically, he could be getting one month to show his offensive skills at the big league level. Pressure free environment, too. Nobody expects a lot from Wade. All the attention will be on the home run twins.
 

jon abbey

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Cole goes to the Astros, they are the clear favorites now although they still could use a more trustworthy pen.

Stanton hit a few massive HRs off Cole last year, I’ll try to find a link when I’m home later.
 

jon abbey

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Whoops, now reports saying Cole to HOU is not done or imminent.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman did a lot of public talking yesterday on many topics, here are some nice words on NY's current top three pitching prospects, that Abreu quote is insane:

===================================

On Tuesday Cashman said he remains high on Adams, and said he would have been promoted from Triple-A last September had there been a need. Cashman cited a crowded 40-man roster as a factor as well, noting he would have had to add Adams to promote him.

“Was he deserving? Of course,” Cashman said. “He’s done everything he needs to do. It’s just a matter of when an opportunity becomes available.”

Cashman said lefty Justus Sheffield, who scouts raved about in the Arizona Fall League, needs time in Triple-A, but said “he has so much athleticism that he could move fast. He’s an easy guy to dream on.”

And it’s worth noting the GM had high praise for Albert Abreu, the 21-year-old righthander who finished the year in Class A Tampa and also had an outstanding Fall League, comparing him to Luis Severino.

“He’s more advanced than Severino was at the same stage,” Cashman said. “It doesn’t mean he’ll be as good, but he’s an exciting talent.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-interest-gerrit-cole-stems-analytics-article-1.3747634
 

jon abbey

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Stanton hit a few massive HRs off Cole last year, I’ll try to find a link when I’m home later.
I was wrong about this too, not sure who I was thinking of. Stanton does have a 1.217 OPS against Cole but just 12 PAs and just one HR, in 2013.
 

jon abbey

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Cots and MLB Trade Rumors have very different estimates for NY's arb salaries, Cots has 8 guys totalling $34.25M and MLBTR (supposedly generally more accurate) has those 8 at $29.4M, so we should start to get actual numbers to fill in for those players this week as Friday is the deadline.

So NY is currently somewhere between $16M and $21M under the $197M number, I would trade Gardner (ok move from a baseball sense, but a tough clubhouse move to make) and Warren for prospects which would give them between $34M and $37M (Warren is $3M at MLBTR and $5M at Cots), Then I'd offer Darvish the same salary as Tanaka for two extra years, 5/110, and Alex Avila 2/12 (he'd become the backup C and 1B, two places NY is thin behind the starters), which would leave them $6-$9M under still. That might not be enough for Darvish, but this Yankee team should be a fun one to play on so who knows.

Severino
Darvish
Tanaka
Gray
Sabathia (Montgomery, Cessa, Adams, Sheffield in AAA)

German
Heller
Green
Betances
Kahnle
Robertson
Chapman (Gallegos, Holder, Acevedo in AAA)

Sanchez
Bird
Wade (Torres in May)
Didi
Andujar
Stanton
Hicks
Judge
Frazier-primary DH

Avila
Ellsbury
Torreyes
Austin or McKinney or Estrada, maybe Wade once Torres is up

Yes, please.
 

jon abbey

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Funny quote from CC yesterday, you will remember that the Blue Jays seemed to be the main non-Yankee team to pursue him this winter:

====================

Ruocco: Can you imagine pitching to this (Yankees) lineup?

Sabathia: No, absolutely not. That’s why I wouldn’t have went to the Blue Jays. If I’m going to be in the East, I’m going to be on the best team. I’m not coming into Yankee Stadium and getting my ass kicked.

http://bluejayhunter.com/2018/01/cc-sabathia-explains-why-he-chose-the-yankees-over-the-blue-jays.html
 

BigMike

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Cashman did a lot of public talking yesterday on many topics, here are some nice words on NY's current top three pitching prospects, that Abreu quote is insane:
By Same Stage I Assume He Means A Ball. Because at The Age Abreu Was last Year, Severino Threw 62 very Good Innings In The Majorss

( Sorry For All The Caps, My Mobile Kb Is Screwy)
 

jon abbey

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Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 9m9 minutes ago
Wow: Michael Kay is reporting the #Yankees offered Yu Darvish a contract around seven years and $160 million. But when Darvish didn't accept within 48 hours, they pulled the deal.

In terms of how they'd fit him under the salary cap, Kay speculated David Robertson would have been traded if Darvish accepted.