2017 NBA Draft Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jokic went 41st, but I'm not sure he was considered a high ceiling guy. That was also a really deep draft. The Draymond Green draft had Khris Middleton go at 39 but that was partly due to injury concerns.
There will always be anomalies but in general finding these guys that last this late who are worthy of investing such significant resources in to develop are few and far between. If a team is willing to invest the time and money for projects they typically do it with a first round pick.

I do wonder how the new CBA will change this trend as a 4-year college player who can play rotation minutes immediately is a great value on a mid/late-1st rookie deal compared to having to pay reserves upwards of $10m to do the same job. As I said above it is a copycat league so when guys like Norman Powell, Malcolm Brogdon, and Josh Richardson have great success as older 4-year college guys it opens eyes to a new way of doing business with the salary cap bloating the cost of acquiring veteran reserves for these teams......spending $2m on a backup role rather than $10-15m for similar production allows those monies to be allocated on higher tier players. I used Alec Peters and Josh Hart as two examples of players who could benefit if GM's adjust quickly to this added value proposition.
 

JakeRae

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There will always be anomalies but in general finding these guys that last this late who are worthy of investing such significant resources in to develop are few and far between. If a team is willing to invest the time and money for projects they typically do it with a first round pick.

I do wonder how the new CBA will change this trend as a 4-year college player who can play rotation minutes immediately is a great value on a mid/late-1st rookie deal compared to having to pay reserves upwards of $10m to do the same job. As I said above it is a copycat league so when guys like Norman Powell, Malcolm Brogdon, and Josh Richardson have great success as older 4-year college guys it opens eyes to a new way of doing business with the salary cap bloating the cost of acquiring veteran reserves for these teams......spending $2m on a backup role rather than $10-15m for similar production allows those monies to be allocated on higher tier players. I used Alec Peters and Josh Hart as two examples of players who could benefit if GM's adjust quickly to this added value proposition.
That's a sound general observation, but I'm not sure it is accurate to the Celtics. They have a pretty full roster with reasonably priced players and will be adding Zivic, Yabusele, and their 1st round pick to that core before you get to this year's second rounders. They will also be adding to first round picks in a year. The second round picks this year are going to need to be better than those guys to get minutes in Boston, and it's hard to see that from the guys who are not upside plays. Basically, the 37 pick in this year's draft looks to possibly have some intriguing players left that fit that mold. While tankathon has both Jeanne and Diallo going higher than 37, Draft Express has them going 36/37, respectively. Either could still be on the board. I also think Mitchell or Thornwell would be great choices if either is still on the board.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Jordan Bell only clocked in at 6'8.5" in shoes with a 6'11.75" wingspan, but I think he's probably my preferred target in the second- great energy, great screener, excellent athlete who can protect the rim and defend in space.
So, about Jordan Bell...


That is wild for a guy his size. If Ainge doesn't get him, maybe Belichick can.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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All I know about Diallo is that he was ranked 10th overall in his class coming out of high school, is 6'5 with a 6'10 wingspan, folks were saying he might be the best pure athlete in his class, but needs to improve his handle and shooting. He redshirted this year which is why he dropped. I know how Ainge loves those guys who were ranked highly in their HS class but dropped (like Avery and Sully). Of course, now there's buzz that Diallo might go somewhere late 1st.
I understand that Diallo decided not to play after posting a 44.5" vertical leap. Hopefully that will hurt him and he might drop into the second round, but knowing NBA GMs who seem to love the measurable, he probably won't.

BTW, Ainge loves the guys who are highly ranked seniors only if the have some NBA skill. Not sure Diallo has any but that won't be known until he does his work outs.

His jump:

 

Drocca

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Jordan Bell only clocked in at 6'8.5" in shoes with a 6'11.75" wingspan, but I think he's probably my preferred target in the second- great energy, great screener, excellent athlete who can protect the rim and defend in space.
Surprised to hear him referred to as having great energy or protecting the rim. What I remember most about him is that in the freaking Final Four, with his team's season on the line at the end of the game, he let Kennedy Meeks rebound over him twice from the foul line to lose the game. He was tired or maybe just not into it and already thinking about the NBA? I don't know. Not a good look.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Surprised to hear him referred to as having great energy or protecting the rim. What I remember most about him is that in the freaking Final Four, with his team's season on the line at the end of the game, he let Kennedy Meeks rebound over him twice from the foul line to lose the game. He was tired or maybe just not into it and already thinking about the NBA? I don't know. Not a good look.
Man, I really hope the GMs drafting ahead of the Celtics only watched the UNC game and think like you do. Of course they won't, because that's stupid. Maybe Jordan. Bell went for 13/16 with 4 blocks in that game in 35 minutes in that game. In the elite 8 against Kansas he went for 11/13/4 with 8(!) blocks and was the best player on a court with three Wooden finalists. He was MOP of the Midwest regional. He's up there with Anunoby and Isaac as an elite defensive prospect. A 20 year old made two big mental mistakes at a critical time. That shit happens to guys who go on to successful careers all the time. Hell, a bunch of NBA veterans repeatedly missed box out assignments in an elimination game last night. Given his overall body of work, I'm not gonna hold it against him any more than I'd hold Justin Jackson's 6 for 19 and 0/9 from 3 in the championship against him as a scorer.
 
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Drocca

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People miss shots, I think everyone understands that.

But to get outrebounded TWICE in a row as the offensive player at the foul line in the most critical part of the most critical game of your life?

That's effort and character. Meeks had it in spades, lights were too bright for Bell.

Edit - And not sure MOP of regionals is the best stat to draft on. In a regional with Kentucky, Carolina and UCLA the MOP was Luke Maye.
 

DannyDarwinism

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People miss shots, I think everyone understands that.

But to get outrebounded TWICE in a row as the offensive player at the foul line in the most critical part of the most critical game of your life?

That's effort and character. Meeks had it in spades, lights were too bright for Bell.
I'd argue it's more focus than effort or character, which is a separate and valid issue for him. A lot of scouts note his high BBIQ in addition to his energy, but that didn't really stand out to me like his effort level did, at least from what I've seen from him. And failing to box out off of free throws surely has fuck-all to do with protecting the rim, so I have no idea why you'd even invoke that in your initial post. It's not like I'm on an island with the claims he's got a good motor and he can protect the rim, they're in literally every scouting report on him out there:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jordan-Bell-70316/
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/jordan-bell
http://www.nbascoutingreport.net/player-profiles-jordan-bell.html

As far as advanced stats go, they're in agreement with the scouts. Forget the MOP award, he was one of two guys in all of D1 (Ethan Happ was the other) to have a DBPM over 9 in over 1000 minutes. Only four other guys have done that since they started tracking DBPM in 2010, and they're all in the NBA now (Brow, Cauley-Stein, Dieng, Withey). Nerlens Noel would've too if he hadn't tore his ACL. Bell's at 8.9 DBPM for his college career, which is elite.

But to each his own, I guess. It was two egregious, inexcusable mistakes when the stakes were highest, and I might well be more worried about it if he was a lottery-type prospect, but he's a undersized, offensively challenged back-up big that I'm weighing over guys like Monte Morris. If you legitimately think his motor and rim protecting are in question because of those plays, I think that's a short-sighted way to evaluate a second round pick who has demonstrated those traits in over 100 college games, including high-leverage ones (seriously, he was everywhere in the Kansas game, which I'm assuming you didn't see?). He's no Webber in terms of potential, but he had his C-Webb moment and it will weigh on him. (Here's a good Boston Globe piece on it, and on Bell's reaction). He can use it for motivation or let it define him, I suppose.
 

amfox1

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Per Chad Ford (insider article)

The Kings aren't the only team that agents are avoiding this year. Several agents told me that they were considering holding their clients out of workouts with the Boston Celtics as well. The Celtics currently have the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick, and unlike the Kings, they have one of the most respected front offices and coaching staffs in the league.

What gives?

The Celtics are loaded with players at every position. The fear is that -- much like No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown saw this year -- their clients would have to spend the next few years coming off the bench. That's not what most top prospects in the draft want. They want a chance to start and lead a franchise right away.

"I have deep respect for the Celtics," one agent said. "They may have the best GM and head coach in the league. But I'd have to understand what the plan would be for my client before I let them come. They are loaded at every position. There's a real danger that they take a player and either he plays a limited role of the bench, or he becomes an asset to be traded to a situation that we're uncomfortable with. It's tough."

Don't expect this to bother the Celtics much. They have one of the best scouting staffs in the league.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Celtics will have a top 4 pick in the draft. Holding out would be stupid and cost them a decent chunk of money depending on how far they slide. Especially if the C's have the number 1 pick. There's a certain "status" you get with being the number 1 pick.
 

Imbricus

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And they need scoring off the bench badly. I don't think those agents have much to worry about -- I wonder if this is the media whipping up a story. I have trouble believing their clients wouldn't rather play for the Celtics than, say, Phoenix.
 

BigSoxFan

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And they need scoring off the bench badly. I don't think those agents have much to worry about -- I wonder if this is the media whipping up a story. I have trouble believing their clients wouldn't rather play for the Celtics than, say, Phoenix.
Speaking of Phoenix, Dragan Bender averaged 13 mpg this year. Jaylen Brown? 17.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Kris Dunn was at 17.1 mpg. Also less than Brown. I guess you could argue a similar situation but a not similar situation? I dunno. Minnesota is stacked with talent but they suck.
 

Imbricus

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I think the agents are playing head games. I bet if any of them told their clients, "I'm thinking of holding you out of a workout with the Boston Celtics," the player would say, "What the hell are you talking about?"
 

Imbricus

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Actually, one more point: anyone drafted one to four by the Celtics this year won't have to worry; they'll get playing time. If there's anyone who might not want to get drafted by the Celtics, it's a second-round guy. The Celts have a logjam back there of three picks; there's a decent chance a player or two gets Nader'ed to the D League or gets talked into a year in China or wherever. Those are the guys who would have a better shot at making the roster with a less-deep team. But those are also the guys without much clout, so it doesn't much matter.
 

sezwho

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I think the agent's position is reasonable. While the ghost of Amir Johnson is the current starting 4, the Celtics are likely to add last years first round(ers?) Zizic/Yabu to Horford and have real depth 1-3 even before making a pick. Without knowing how the trade market will settle, its pretty uncertain ground for a draft pick
 

Kid T

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I'm thinking those agents don't represent lottery pick candidates - just potential 2nd rounders. Celts are probably more likely to either trade those or select draft-and-stash candidates anyway.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I'm thinking those agents don't represent lottery pick candidates - just potential 2nd rounders. Celts are probably more likely to either trade those or select draft-and-stash candidates anyway.
I don't have access to the article, but I don't think the agents are talking about the second rounders there. This quote, "There's a real danger that they take a player and either he plays a limited role of the bench, or he becomes an asset to be traded to a situation that we're uncomfortable with. It's tough." wouldn't make sense for a second rounder because those guys are lucky to play a limited role off the bench for any NBA team, much less a good one.

I think the agent's position is reasonable. While the ghost of Amir Johnson is the current starting 4, the Celtics are likely to add last years first round(ers?) Zizic/Yabu to Horford and have real depth 1-3 even before making a pick. Without knowing how the trade market will settle, its pretty uncertain ground for a draft pick
It's a defensible position for someone looking to maximize their client's future earnings. Over the past 10 years, excluding the DNPs Oden and Simmons, Anthony Bennett and Anthony Davis are the only first overall picks who were at under 30 minutes per game as rookies, and Davis was at 29 mpg. Fultz (nevermind Josh Jackson or Tatum/Ball/DSJ) is not going to be getting huge minutes on the Celtics team as currently constituted next year. I'd think an agent would want his guy to be getting as much exposure as possible, as soon as possible, for a variety of reasons.
 

Kid T

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I don't have access to the article, but I don't think the agents are talking about the second rounders there. This quote, "There's a real danger that they take a player and either he plays a limited role of the bench, or he becomes an asset to be traded to a situation that we're uncomfortable with. It's tough." wouldn't make sense for a second rounder because those guys are lucky to play a limited role off the bench for any NBA team, much less a good one.
Good point. I don't have access to the article either, but if a top 4 pick is afraid of some competition or doesn't think they are good enough to get some minutes with this team - I wouldn't want them. This team can use scorers, rebounders, and defenders. If the player shows some promise (like Brown did this year), I think Stevens will find a way to incorporate them into the rotation - even if just to develop their skills.
 

the moops

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#1 pick will aslo earn almost 4 million dollars more in their first contract compared to the # 2 pick. And more than 7 million more than the # 4 pick.
 

Imbricus

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It's a defensible position for someone looking to maximize their client's future earnings.
But these rookies are under team control anyway for how long? Four or five years? So year one, maybe the draft pick plays 10 minutes a game less, let's say. But by year three, that's probably evened out, plus the kid is starting for a playoff team (getting to showcase his skills on a bigger stage), in a better-coached system, in a major sports market. As for worrying about the possibility that the client gets traded in a package for a superstar, that doesn't really make sense either because: (1) There's always that possibility no matter where the player lands. (2) Presumably that would just put the player back in a situation the agent likes anyway -- more of a rebuild situation (say the Celts traded the pick for Butler or George, then the rookie goes to a less deep team, more minutes, etc.). And then what moops said: there's the money aspect. About $4 million isn't small change to a kid who's 19, 20. Plus the prestige of going number one instead of number two or three.

This feels like a tempest in a teapot to me.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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But these rookies are under team control anyway for how long? Four or five years? So year one, maybe the draft pick plays 10 minutes a game less, let's say. But by year three, that's probably evened out, plus the kid is starting for a playoff team (getting to showcase his skills on a bigger stage), in a better-coached system, in a major sports market. As for worrying about the possibility that the client gets traded in a package for a superstar, that doesn't really make sense either because: (1) There's always that possibility no matter where the player lands. (2) Presumably that would just put the player back in a situation the agent likes anyway -- more of a rebuild situation (say the Celts traded the pick for Butler or George, then the rookie goes to a less deep team, more minutes, etc.). And then what moops said: there's the money aspect. About $4 million isn't small change to a kid who's 19, 20. Plus the prestige of going number one instead of number two or three.

This feels like a tempest in a teapot to me.
Points which I'm sure are all thoughtfully considered by the extremely well-compensated professionals with large financial incentives underlying these decisions. Those 10 minutes less per game could be the difference between making the Rising Stars team, or the real All-Star game, or being voted Rookie of the Year, or a host of other considerations that contribute to what I mentioned upthread- exposure. Exposure, in turn, leads to increased opportunity for endorsements.

Agreed that this isn't a big deal. Simmons didn't want to go to Philly last year, and they drafted him anyway. If a team likes a guy enough, him skipping workouts won't prevent them from taking him, at which point he really has no leverage. But I wouldn't assume that the agent here is missing some angle. Then again, it could just all be pre-draft disinformation anyway.
 

the moops

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Those 10 minutes less per game could be the difference between making the Rising Stars team
1,2,
Just a point about this. Players from 2015 draft, on this years rising stars team, were picked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, and 13. Players from the 2016 draft were picked 2, 6, 7, 8, and 11.

So not sure it matters all that much where you go so long as it is in the top half of the lottery
 

DannyDarwinism

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This is a really, really silly conversation.

They are discussing the second round guys.
No, no they're not. From the Ford piece:

"The Celtics are loaded with players at every position. The fear is that -- much like No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown saw this year -- their clients would have to spend the next few years coming off the bench. That's not what most top prospects in the draft want. They want a chance to start and lead a franchise right away"

Emphasis added. He's clearly talking about the Nets pick.
 

Marbleheader

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The Celtics aren't loaded at every position. After Isaiah and Horford everyone else is replaceable in the starting 5.
 

sezwho

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The Celtics aren't loaded at every position. After Isaiah and Horford everyone else is replaceable in the starting 5.
Well I highly doubt the entire posse of Bradley, Brown, Smart, Crowder and Rozier are gone before draft day. I suppose it depends what you mean by 'loaded' but there project to be at least two roster players for positions 1-3 ahead of all but Fultz, and potentially even him as well. For lottery picks I think talent/investment will combine to give a player a real opportunity, but after that its very situational I would imagine. To be clear, as others noted above, I'm not sure what real influence the agents have over this stuff but it is one of the few ways they could offer value at this stage to differentiate themselves when salaries are slotted so I'm sure they are talking about it.
 

nighthob

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Fultz doesn't have anything to worry about as Boston isn't really loaded at the SG spot. They really only have one size appropriate body there and he's better suited to the sixth man role. Brown might be Boston's SG of the future, but he's just as likely the SF of the future.

I could see why Jackson and Ball might look askance at their opportunities in Boston, but Fultz, Tatum, and Isaac shouldn't be worrying at all given Boston's desperation for guys that can nail wide open threes and their need for players that can man the 4 in the current pace & space era of the NBA,
 

Eddie Jurak

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Can we produce even one example of a legitimate top 4 NBA pick whose career suffered as a result of being drafted by a good team?
 

Eddie Jurak

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Darko is the only one who comes readily to mind, and it is hard toargue that his career was ruined by the Pistons.
 

sezwho

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I could see why Jackson and Ball might look askance at their opportunities in Boston, but Fultz, Tatum, and Isaac shouldn't be worrying at all given Boston's desperation for guys that can nail wide open threes and their need for players that can man the 4 in the current pace & space era of the NBA,
Taking another look at some prospect sites I was surprised how many references there were to Jackson, Tatum and Isaac potentially getting time at the 4 in their careers.

They are all currently under 210 lbs so hard to know how much projection is required, but the pace and space NBA continues to evolve
 

Drocca

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No, no they're not. From the Ford piece:

"The Celtics are loaded with players at every position. The fear is that -- much like No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown saw this year -- their clients would have to spend the next few years coming off the bench. That's not what most top prospects in the draft want. They want a chance to start and lead a franchise right away"

Emphasis added. He's clearly talking about the Nets pick.
Ok. My point remains - this is very, very silly.
 

nighthob

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I'm not sure Jackson has the requisite length to be an NBA PF, and his lateral quickness is above average, at best, so I'm not sure how much time he can log at the SG spot, either. But I do expect him to be a great SF, though.

Tatum is long and has broad shoulders, he looks like he can carry 240 lbs or so without any loss of quickness. Isaac's 6'11", so he seems destined for the PF spot in this era.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Taking another look at some prospect sites I was surprised how many references there were to Jackson, Tatum and Isaac potentially getting time at the 4 in their careers.

They are all currently under 210 lbs so hard to know how much projection is required, but the pace and space NBA continues to evolve
You have to project what their bodies will be like in 3-5 years as well. Each can comfortably add 15-20 lbs during this time and the league has gotten away from "bangers" at the 4 so they will be competing against similar sized players.
 

Devizier

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Any chance the Celtics take someone like Dillon Brooks with one of their second rounders? Seems like he could be a solid bench scorer.
 

BigSoxFan

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Any chance the Celtics take someone like Dillon Brooks with one of their second rounders? Seems like he could be a solid bench scorer.
I think he'd be a decent Red Claw prospect. Like Denzel Valentine, he is going to struggle with the speed and athleticism of the NBA but he's a skilled forward who may be able to carve a niche out somewhere. Improve his 3pt shooting from 33% first couple of years to 40% last year so there is hope.
 

oumbi

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I'm thinking those agents don't represent lottery pick candidates - just potential 2nd rounders. Celts are probably more likely to either trade those or select draft-and-stash candidates anyway.
Perhaps, though it does strike me as a bit of an odd argument when three out of the five players starting for the Celtics in the playoffs were second round picks.
 

Smokey Joe

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Perhaps the agent Chad Ford is referring to is Harrison Gaines, who is Lonzo Ball's agent. Mr. Gaines works for Ball Sports agency and Lonzo is his first and only client.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think you guys are making a big deal out of something that has been going on for years. Marcus Smart's agent refused to allow his client to workout for Utah who had the 5th pick just ahead of us. The Jazz needed guards badly and wanted Smart but wouldn't draft him without bringing him in. This clearly wasn't a case of playing time but for "other" reasons as Utah ended up drafting Dante Exum and Rodney Hood......each of whom also declined working out for the Jazz. Last year, Dunn's agent kept him away from Boston not allowing him to workout for Ainge as Isaiah was obviously a roadblock to minutes in the foreseeable future. It's how the agents play the game.

Last year the Jazz had a ton of young players under contract and tried getting Labissiere and Poeltl in for workouts to no avail. They got Sabonis and Deyonta Davis in at the last minute but they were only allowed individual workouts that their agent structured. I also heard that in the Smart draft the Jazz weren't able to get a single Top-10 prospect in to workout.....these agents still control player movement in this league and probably more now than ever before.