It's also possible that the Patriots think JG is a top 5 QB now, or by 2018 he will be one. As has been said over and over here -- QB is the most important position in football and probably the most important position in the four major sports. If the Pats believe he's that good or has a reasonable expectation of being that good, I wouldn't want them to trade him. It could just be that simple.
2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
This is pretty much where I'm at as well. I think there's a bit of GFIN mixed in with optimism about Brissett for 2018. With a healthy Brady, they're the prohibitive SB favorite. If Brady goes down and JG takes over, they probably think they're still serious title contenders. If Brissett had to take the reins, they probably think they're a playoff team at best. But they really like Brissett as the backup/heir apparent after another year of seasoning. So they're keeping JG to maximize their chances of winning this year, while looking to Brissett as the next guy. For once, they're not maximizing the value (in picks to build for the future) that JG represents, because the team is absolutely loaded and they want another ring. But they still feel good about the QB position if JG ultimately walks.
Yup.
Pats really not into wasting time or energy, so they laid down a marker. The earliest reports were team sourced from Werder then Shefter, and the thrust was, not happenin' or happening only at extraordinary price.
That's why this topic went dark for so long in the run-up to the draft -- message received. There were just no reports of back-and-forth between teams -- as there were with Butler, for example. Not a lot with Butler, but there were some.
Added benefit -- they spared JG the bullshit.
Could it have played out differently? Conceivably. Had one team followed up after the marker was laid down, I suspect the Pats would have attempted to negotiate up. And had another team joined in, we might have had ourselves an auction.
But with two real pro games on tape, teams were not going there.
My guess is that Schefter's reporting was pretty accurate all off-season and it really is just a simple situation:
BB is smart enough to know that Brady is in uncharted waters and quite possibly will decline rapidly, suffer an injury that spells the end, or decide to hang them up within the next year or two. At the same time BB really likes JG and thinks he can be a very good QB in the league. Given the Brady situation, the team decided early this offseason that they trading JG made little sense and they would just reevaluate in 2018. In the abstract, they might have considered a serious Godfather offer but nobody was ever going to make that kind of offer because league norms against offering a huge haul for a guy picked in the 2nd round are just too prohibitive.
Edit: Didn't see DCM's post but he says it even better.
BB is smart enough to know that Brady is in uncharted waters and quite possibly will decline rapidly, suffer an injury that spells the end, or decide to hang them up within the next year or two. At the same time BB really likes JG and thinks he can be a very good QB in the league. Given the Brady situation, the team decided early this offseason that they trading JG made little sense and they would just reevaluate in 2018. In the abstract, they might have considered a serious Godfather offer but nobody was ever going to make that kind of offer because league norms against offering a huge haul for a guy picked in the 2nd round are just too prohibitive.
Edit: Didn't see DCM's post but he says it even better.
I agree with your take. In the end, Bill doesn't have to decide now and therefore isn't. The potential Jimmy trade haul was probably tempting but in the end not as valued as insurance and optionality.
To me, Bill's decision was understandable. And not surprising, especially given how loaded his team is. But it will get very interesting if and when he does something that would clearly and unmistakably signal to Tom that his period as the starter in NE is going to end without him simply retiring. If Bill, for example, does what most people do not think he will do and franchises Jimmy after the 2017 season, I think that would tell Tom that the starting QB in 2018 or 2019 will be Jimmy. I mean, would Bill really pay $20 plus million for insurance? How that whole thing plays out with Brady is going to be fascinating if Bill indeed uses the franchise card or JG signs an extension.
I don't think JG getting tag alone indicates much for Brady. I think if there is cap room JG will almost certainly be franchised after this season. Cassel was also franchised after 2008 so he could remain under team control and then promptly dealt to KC. If JG signs a long term extension I would agree that some serious confusion will be created around how the team views Brady's window .
This is just an embarrassment of riches.
What everyone is scared of is TB having a major injury this year/Maybe has a small dip in production.
BB decides the best move for the team is to go to Jimmy.
Brady signs with someone else and plays well.
Does Kraft allow this to happen? Gun to my head I would say yes.
we root for the laundry. But in this case it just isn't true. I can't see myself living and dying with another coach/QB.
I rather go down with Brady leaving on his own terms.
People talk about Brady falling off a cliff like it would be a nose dive. More likely to see a 10% drop in production a year. Which would make the decision almost impossible.
I think Brady stays and plays as well enough where there won't be a debate next March . If there's any Qb in the history of football who can play until 45 it's him
What everyone is scared of is TB having a major injury this year/Maybe has a small dip in production.
BB decides the best move for the team is to go to Jimmy.
Brady signs with someone else and plays well.
Does Kraft allow this to happen? Gun to my head I would say yes.
we root for the laundry. But in this case it just isn't true. I can't see myself living and dying with another coach/QB.
I rather go down with Brady leaving on his own terms.
People talk about Brady falling off a cliff like it would be a nose dive. More likely to see a 10% drop in production a year. Which would make the decision almost impossible.
I think Brady stays and plays as well enough where there won't be a debate next March . If there's any Qb in the history of football who can play until 45 it's him
For me the much scarier scenario is that the team trades Jimmy next offseason then in 2018 Brady does what nearly every other QB in NFL history has done in his age 41 season (if he gets there, which is rare) - play poorly and/or get hurt - and hangs them up. Suddenly we're a team without a QB with an offense (and set of offensive personnel) that requires a QB with a very particular and rare skill set. That is a bad, bad place to be in the NFL.
For me this is only a scary scenario if the third domino falls, namely, that BB decides to hang them up when TB12 does.
For me the much scarier scenario is that the team trades Jimmy next offseason then in 2018 Brady does what nearly every other QB in NFL history has done in his age 41 season - play poorly and/or get hurt - and hangs them up. Suddenly we're a team without a QB with an offense (and set of offensive personnel) that requires a QB with a very particular and rare skill set. That is a bad, bad place to be in the NFL.
Not unlikely, although 1) Im not sure that's going to be true of the offensive personnel on the 2018. The offense is of course very likely to be worse without Brady at QB, I get the point you are making, but I dont think someone like Cooks "needs" a QB like Brady to be effective. Best thing they can do to help here is shore up the line 2) the most likely outcome for Jimmy probably isnt playing 16 games a year as a Pro Bowl outcome. 3) Im sort of willing to live with the risk to have Brady play his whole career here, he's a unique case 4) I think they like Brisset.
Not unlikely, although 1) Im not sure that's going to be true of the offensive personnel on the 2018. The offense is of course very likely to be worse without Brady at QB, I get the point you are making, but I dont think someone like Cooks "needs" a QB like Brady to be effective. Best thing they can do to help here is shore up the line 2) the most likely outcome for Jimmy probably isnt playing 16 games a year as a Pro Bowl outcome. 3) Im sort of willing to live with the risk to have Brady play his whole career here, he's a unique case 4) I think they like Brisset.
I wonder what makes you (referring to MMS) think that this offensive personnel requires a particular and rare skill set from a QB.
In the 4 games without TB12 last year, two different QBs did OK with that set of personnel. With JG, it was somewhat expected, but even so, most people, I think, expected less of him than he showed before he got hurt. In JB's case, no one expected anything from a rookie who had so little experience, but he did OK.
I just looked at the game log of the defeat to the Bills. No one acquitted themselves well there except for Bennett.
I wouldn't feel good going into this season with JB at the helm. But I would still see the Pats as the AFC East champs with JG and probably in the competition for a bye. The rest of the personnel, on both sides of the ball, plus the coaching, is just that much better than all the other teams.
In the 4 games without TB12 last year, two different QBs did OK with that set of personnel. With JG, it was somewhat expected, but even so, most people, I think, expected less of him than he showed before he got hurt. In JB's case, no one expected anything from a rookie who had so little experience, but he did OK.
I just looked at the game log of the defeat to the Bills. No one acquitted themselves well there except for Bennett.
I wouldn't feel good going into this season with JB at the helm. But I would still see the Pats as the AFC East champs with JG and probably in the competition for a bye. The rest of the personnel, on both sides of the ball, plus the coaching, is just that much better than all the other teams.
I have massive respect and appreciation for BB. But even the best HC/GM will likely look pedestrian if he is not blessed with a great QB. For me, the nightmare is TB retired or diminished, Jimmy playing on an elite level for another team and Bill left trying to win with an average-ish QB or trying to find another franchise QB. He might succeed in the latter but it's hardly guaranteed. There just aren't that many of them.
To wit, Bill's greatness was not as apparent when Drew Bledsoe was his QB, and it's not as if Drew was garbage.
Brady and BB are synergistic, but Im not sure 18 games with Drew Bledsoe with a garbage roster tell us much. They caught lightning in a bottle in 2001, but Id say it took until 2003 to get the program fully up and running and get a full BB/Patriots roster together. Even in his prime Tom Brady would have had trouble with the 2000 team.
SR, I see our offense as built around a lot of option routes in the short passing game. The system requires a QB who can win at the line of scrimmage by calling audibles and diagnosing mismatches and then a QB and set of receivers who can make sight adjustments right after the snap and do so on the same wavelength. In my view, this offense has been critical to the Patriots' success not only because its hard to stop but because it means the Patriots are shopping in a different aisle than most other teams when it comes to other offensive skill personnel, which has given them an advantage over other teams in their spending of draft capital and salary cap resources.
I agree with Stitch that Cooks could probably succeed in any system, as could Gronk, although my suspicion is that the latter won't have a very long career with the Patriots going forward. But I think BB would probably prefer to stick with this kind of offensive system post-Brady if possible, because he understands its advantages on and off the field, because it is what his players know best, and because that is how the team has been built from a roster construction standpoint. One reason I think they like JG - and I'm just speculating here really - is that they've seen him in practice and the film room for three years and are comfortable with the idea that he could take the reins without a radical redesign of the offense. Finding a QB who can play at a high level in the NFL is hard enough. Finding one that could do so in this kind of offense is likely even harder.
Edit: I'd also add that I think your average college QB prospect these days - which is a QB that has played substantially in some version of the spread or another pretty simple offense - is completely unprepared to succeed in this system. The Patriots' passing offense has gotten more complex and more mentally demanding on the QB at the same time as the average college passing offense has gotten less complex and less mentally demanding on QBs.
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I think the far better comp is not Bledsoe, but Cassel. Cassel would never be confused with being a top 5-20 QB, (I would say he's more in the 20-40 range). Yet with him and with an excellent supporting cast, the Pats went 11-5. Cassel was so bad in the 2008 preseason, IIRC, there were many who wondered if he would make the 53-man roster coming out of camp. I can't find preseason splits or reports from 2008 so my memory may be way off.
(Interesting sidenote in looking at Cassel's history: the pick that ended up being him, the 230th overall in 2005, was held at various points by three team, Vikings, Jets, and Raiders, before landing in New England.)
(Interesting sidenote in looking at Cassel's history: the pick that ended up being him, the 230th overall in 2005, was held at various points by three team, Vikings, Jets, and Raiders, before landing in New England.)
In truth, I'm not sure either comp is all that instructive. For the reasons detailed by MMS and the fact NFL teams never or almost never sustain excellence for a period of years without an elite QB, I fully understand and appreciate why Bill is playing out the option with Jimmy. Said differently, I don't think the 2018 Pats would win at nearly the same level with the likes of Bledsoe or Cassels, and I hope never to see my thesis tested.
I really hope BB doesn't think that JG is a top 5 QB now.
I know everyone is entitled to an opinion, but Jimmy top 5 right now is just wrong.
For 2017 - Brady, Rodgers, Carr, Wilson, Big Ben, Luck, and Ryan are ALL undoubtedly better.
I am sure I am missing guys also.
Edit - he won't be top 5 in 2018 either. I can't see how one could believe that when he can't even win the starting job on his own team. To be fair not many guys could beat out Brady.
Yeah, I doubt BB can determine if JG is an MVP caliber player. The short term isnt the point.
Is 12 years of good QB play more important than 2 years of great QB play?
It is a great question.
I would guess two more Lombardi trophies would be more valuable than probably zero over the 12 years but some playoff appearances.
The real question is how much longer is Brady going to be better than Jimmy. I tend to believe that BB would be willing to have another Brady/Bledsoe decision and go with the young guy again IF Jimmy is in fact better than Brady.
To me the timing is difficult as I don't see Jimmy being better than Brady by next year.
The keep Jimmy over Brady camp seems to be based on a belief that BB would knowingly chose an inferior QB based on a belief that said QB will be better than the QB he dumped at some future date.
There are so many other variables that come with the time factor that it is possible that the next great NEP QB isn't on the roster yet.
Edit for clarity - I am saying 12 years of Jimmy vs 2 more years of Brady would be mutually exclusive, when in reality the Pats have Brady and Jimmy both no matter what for 2017.
Or they can choose both. Franchise JG in 2018 or, even better, offer him the tag then sign him to a big long term deal in which the 2018 and 2019 cap hits are a bit more manageable, with the explicit understanding that the best QB will play in 2018 and it'll be his team from 2019 onward. At the same time, have "the talk" with Brady and let him know that they'll be moving on after 2018 no matter what, that the club would love if he retires a Patriot, but that its naturally his call if he wants to try and play at age 42 somewhere else in 2019. You treat Brady with respect, you give JG the dream combination of a great situation and a lot of guaranteed money, and you make the transition work for all parties.
Sorry, how is that showing Brady 'respect'?
'So, Tom, we know you're the GOAT, you've made this franchise what it is, brought us five or six trophies, taken discounts on your contract for years, played at a higher level than anyone at your age and the owner considers you another son, but no matter how well you play next season, you're gone. Ya know...the kid looked good for six quarters and in practice and you could fall off a cliff at any point. Thanks for your 18 years and best of luck.'
Count me in with Stitch, I never want to see him wear another uniform, sentimental as that is. If that means a dry period afterwards, so be it. They can't sustain this forever anyways.
Agreed. Brady has earned the right to suck before Bill moves on from him. The "better to be a year early than a year late" mantra shouldn't apply in his case.
Its more like "We've had an amazing run together, we'll always be in your debt, and you'll always be the greatest player in franchise history but you're going to be 42 in 2019 and we owe it to the rest of the players and the coaches to do what is best for the team."
Teams move on from aging star QBs. It happened with Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas, and many more. You can do it respectfully and maintain a great player-franchise relationship afterward. Handled well, the team moving on from Brady in advance of his age 42 season - truly ancient in football terms - would be far from disrespectful. The cold harsh reality is that Tom Brady is highly highly likely to either hang them on his own accord or just not be nearly the same player by age 42. I know people don't want to hear that and would prefer to believe in the fantasy of an avocado fueled cyborg QB playing at an MVP level several years past the point when anybody has ever played the position at a very high level. But the people running the team need to look at the struggle against Father Time a bit more objectively. Choosing to hurt the team's competitiveness to ensure that Tom Brady goes out on his own terms no matter what would be a slap in the face to the rest of the players and the coaching staff. A team has to be bigger than one person and I think Tom Brady would be the first guy to agree.
I certainly 'get' that Brady is getting old. I don't really need the 'avocado' reference.
The Niners had a HoF QB on the bench and Montana had injury issues. They also didn't have a salary cap to deal with to keep Young there in the wings.
The Colts had the #1 pick in a year when there was a stud sitting there while their old franchise QB had spinal fusion.
The Packers had an injury prone and old Favre when what *should have been the #1 pick fall into their laps.
I have no idea what Unitas has to do with this discussion because he was awful long before the Colts let him go, but sure.
Of course teams move on from aging QBs. But to suggest that they would move on regardless of his performance, based purely on his age seems to me to be kind of foolhardy. And no, I'm sorry, if he plays like he did last season this year, they're not having that conversation, that he has one more year and then bye bye. Once again, they have talked about extending him from what we have heard. Wtf makes people think they are gonna toss him to the curb?
It sucks that the timing don't work out better, but TB is an anomaly in every sense of the word. I have no earthly idea why people are so quick to wish him away as soon as possible. Accuse me of straw men all you like, but it's insane to me to think that JG steps in and we have anywhere near the run we've had. Just fucking cherish it.
This is literally part of why the rest of the country and fanbases hate us. We're so consumed by our spoilage that we want to throw TB to the curb, even if he's sustaining his level of play, because we think we can dominate forever.
But it's "respectful", so it's all good.
Saying that we shouldn't be banking on a 42-year-old QB three seasons from now is hardly kicking a legend to the curb. Its just accepting reality. He is highly highly likely to either voluntarily retire, suffer a bad injury that causes him to hang them up, or decline significantly by his age 42 season. If you believe otherwise, I don't think you really do "get" that Tom Brady is getting old. There is one elite level QB season at age 40 in the history of the NFL post-merger (Favre 2009) and it was bracketed by awful seasons. There are zero such seasons at 41 or above in the modern history of the NFL and yet you want to bet on Brady consistently playing at an elite and healthy level at 42, 43, 44? Even for the GOAT, that is a sucker's bet.
Brady is one of my favorite athletes ever and I'm certainly not happy that his career is coming to a close. But I'm at peace with it. He has brought me a ton of sporting joy, I hope he'll play for a few more years, and I'm absolutely going to cherish that time.
My question is how can any one be sure that Jimmy G will be better than a 42 year old Brady?
Is there still a possibility that Brady plays until 43 or 44 and is replaced by Jacoby or some other QB drafted?
The point I think that gets glossed over is people talk like it is a given that Jimmy G is some superstar in the waiting.
Yes he could be, but he isn't yet.
He was a super late 2nd round pick in a bad QB draft from a real small school. He isn't Luck or Rodgers.
I would love Jimmy to turn out to be amazing, but the convo doesn't seem fair that people are 100% certain Brady will be awful in 3 years, but not many people point out the very real possibility that Jimmy only ends up being average to slightly above average.
I don't think anybody really knows how good JG will be but it would be foolish to project him as a superstar for the simple reason that superstars are incredibly rare. On the other hand, I can see how BB might (not saying for sure, but I see this as pretty likely given everything we know at this point) be fairly confident that JG in his system with the right support structures can be an average to somewhat above average starting QB in the league. You say that like its a bad thing but that is a very very valuable property in the NFL and something that Jacoby Brissett or any other QB they pick up in the next couple years is a huge underdog to ever become.
To answer the first question, there is no way to be sure that JG will be better than a 42-year-old Brady but it seems highly highly likely that either the question will be moot (because Brady has retired or gotten hurt) or, if Brady is still in the league at that point, that JG will be at least as good as Brady, in which case it would be franchise malpractice to stick with the 42-year-old and let go of the 27-year-old.
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Very good post. I agree with like 99% of it.
I am still not sure how anyone can say it is "highly highly likely ... JG will be at least as good as [a 42 year old] Brady".
I agree if Jimmy really is that good it is a no brainer to move Brady.
My issue is that a 39 year old Brady was probably the one of the best players in the NFL and a top 2 QB.
A reasonable expectation is for Brady to regress as he ages. So say Brady is a top 15 QB at 42. How much better is Jimmy going to be than top 15?
Wouldn't it be franchise malpractice to pass up multiple first round picks that could add to the roster to help improve multiple other positions on the team?
Edit - I agree that I hope the decision becomes moot in the future as it will work itself out.
Brady talks about the possibility of not finishing his career with the Patriots on the Peter King podcast. Based on his thoughts on the subject, I think its possible to move on in a way that doesnt damage the relationship between Brady and the Patriots if they decide JG is the long-term future of the franchise.
However, I think the respectful thing to do would be to release Brady after this season and let him try and find the right spot to try to play another five seasons as he desires rather than some convoluted keep both quarterbacks on expensive contracts/play for your job kind of arrangement. If he goes to Denver or w/e and wins three Super Bowls, so be it.
As an aside, I dont think "we'll keep both and let the best QB play" is a viable alternative here. The guy who replaces Tom Brady has a tall enough task, asking him to do it while Brady is still on the roster really isnt putting him in a position to succeed.
As Ive said, I completely see the logical case for moving on from Brady after this season and I think moving on from Brady after the year is superior to any cute attempt to keep both QBs on the roster under high dollar contracts. I just dont think they are going to do it unless Brady sucks this year.
Release Brady?
Coming off one of his best seasons, good chance he would be MVP if he didn't miss first four games, and people are proposing releasing after this year.
For a late 2nd rounder who had 6 good quarters.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
Coming off one of his best seasons, good chance he would be MVP if he didn't miss first four games, and people are proposing releasing after this year.
For a late 2nd rounder who had 6 good quarters.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
I sure hope that BB does not agree with you. And I doubt that he does.
For now, all he's bought by keeping Jimmy is time to play this out and make a decision next year based on all of the then existing inputs. He has time to evaluate his options, and take stock of how Tom is performing. If Tom plays in 2017 at or around the same level he played in 2016, shows no sign that he's fading and is still of a mind to play several more seasons, then I see no reason why Bill should release Brady. Why release Brady if he's still functioning as one of the top QBs in the NFL and wants to continue for a while?
And while respect is important, Bill has to -- and will -- consider the needs of the NE Pats first and foremost.
In short, I love that Bill has bought himself some optionality and injury insurance by keeping JG for at least one more year, but that by no means dictates how he handles Tom at the end of next season.
Edit: Or what BigJimEd said right before me....
Who said release him right now?
Peoples reading comprehension sucks.
Theres discussion about letting him go 2 years removed from this past season. That you guys seem to think he'll be performing like a top 5 QB in 2 years is...well, optimistic.
I hope he plays this way until he's 50, but I don't think it's happening.
Sorry for misinterpreted your general idea. Long thread that's repeated itself quite a bit. Tough to tell always tell who's advocating what.
Post I was referring to said after this season. No one said now.
Peoples reading comprehension sucks.
Odd.
This is what I was responding to:
"However, I think the respectful thing to do would be to release Brady after this season and let him try and find the right spot to try to play another five seasons as he desires rather than some convoluted keep both quarterbacks on expensive contracts/play for your job kind of arrangement. If he goes to Denver or w/e and wins three Super Bowls, so be it."
I'm not sure how else I should have read that.
But either way, if we all agree that automatically releasing Tom after the season is not a wise move, good.
Its in the context of a lengthy conversation which you can feel free to read or not read but, suffice it to say, anyone thoughtful who reads the whole conversation will not come away thinking I want to release Brady after the season if he is playing well nor do I think the Patriots will be pursing that path.
To be fair, it is usually a wise decision to skim or skip my posts altogether.
For the record, I'm not overly confident Brady will be a top 5 QB 2-3 years down the road. I do think he's a better bet to be better than Garappolo over the next several years though.
Got it. I'm going to skip going back over the conversation and leave it that the line I quoted was without context. No matter, as I said, we agree that cutting Brady out of respect or automatically would be foolish.
I get your overall perspective but I don't really see why it would be more respectful to move on from Brady after 2017 than after 2018. To me, it would be more respectful to give him two more years in the system to try to get ring number six. His contract also makes this question almost moot, as its 14M dead money if he gets traded or released after 2017. So if you have JG on the roster in 2018 in some fashion then you're going to have two expensive QB cap hits for that year no matter what.
Sorry, I was combining two separate thoughts
1) If they decide to move on from Brady, the respectful thing to do is let him pick where he goes. Maybe that's not releasing him, maybe it is a trade, but they should basically let him pick his situation.
2) If they are going to go with Jimmy G long-term, I think the time to make that decision is after this season. I dont think your idea of an open QB competition in '18 is going to be an ideal transition. I dont think paying Jimmy G $22MM to be the backup and spending $36MM on quarterback salaries is going to happen (again, Pats are better off doing a long-term deal right now if they are going to move on from Brady after '17 no matter how he plays. Theyre probably better off doing so if they are going to move on from Brady after '18 no matter how he plays). While moving on from Brady after '17 does create some cap issues for '18, when thinking longer term it ultimately saves the $14MM base salary they owe Brady in '18.
I continue to see the logical case for transitioning from Brady to JimmyG as soon as after this season. I also continue to think the Pats, right or wrong, will treat Brady as a special case and that Jimmy G will not be on the team in '18 if they believe Brady will be the starter in '18.
1) If they decide to move on from Brady, the respectful thing to do is let him pick where he goes. Maybe that's not releasing him, maybe it is a trade, but they should basically let him pick his situation.
2) If they are going to go with Jimmy G long-term, I think the time to make that decision is after this season. I dont think your idea of an open QB competition in '18 is going to be an ideal transition. I dont think paying Jimmy G $22MM to be the backup and spending $36MM on quarterback salaries is going to happen (again, Pats are better off doing a long-term deal right now if they are going to move on from Brady after '17 no matter how he plays. Theyre probably better off doing so if they are going to move on from Brady after '18 no matter how he plays). While moving on from Brady after '17 does create some cap issues for '18, when thinking longer term it ultimately saves the $14MM base salary they owe Brady in '18.
I continue to see the logical case for transitioning from Brady to JimmyG as soon as after this season. I also continue to think the Pats, right or wrong, will treat Brady as a special case and that Jimmy G will not be on the team in '18 if they believe Brady will be the starter in '18.
Question: if Brady wasn't suspended and we didn't have those 6 quarters of JG... would we even be having this discussion?
Not to this extent. On the other hand JG wouldn't have been worth likely even a 2nd round pick if he didn't play in those games.
It's a good question. At least as to what Bill would have done without them as an input.
I have to believe that Bill learned a lot during those six quarters, and that without them he would not have been able to resist turning Jimmy into an asset he could use in 2017. Then again, teams would have likely offered less without those 6 quarters, so it's probably not a slam dunk.
Its also worth noting that BB didn't just get to see 6 quarters of play, he also got to see JG take reps with the 1s most of the pre-season and go through two weeks of in-season game prep as the number one guy. Whatever they think of JG, my guess is that this kind of information is pretty important to their evaluation - how he ran the offense in practice, how he processed the game planning information and film study, how the preparation translated onto the field (or didn't translate onto the field) in specific situations, etc.
Probably not, certainly to this extent.
The two games raised JG's profile and provided evidence that he could compete effectively in games that mean something. Limited sample size to be sure, but a sample of something very important.
If he had not hit the field at all, it's very easy to see him getting lost in the pre-draft wash. Maybe a team that had scouted out of college would have come calling -- but with nothing approaching a first-round pick. And if BB poured cold water on the efforts we did see -- and he did, IMO because I do not believe the Werder/Schefter/Curran/Reiss reporting was accidental -- he likely would have pissed on more tepid efforts.
I might go the opposite MMS. I think it might be easier to FIND and coach a player who can win at the line then it is to find the Peytons, Rodgers, Brees and Lucks that seemingly rely on amazing physical gifts. Dont get me wrong those players are also very smart which is why they are HOF candidates and not phillip Rivers or Drew Bledsoe.
I would point to Cassel, JGs starts and Brissetts starts as evidence. Will they be as good as Brady if they take over? Of course not. At the end of the day Brady has 15+ years experience doing this. He also has 90-95% of the physical abilities of those HOF guys I listed above. So "Smarter then" those guys (due to his familiarity with the system), comparable physical attributes and his Jordan/Bird esque competitiveness gets you the GOAT.
JG with 25% of the experience, Cassel with 25% of the experience and Brissett with 5% acquitted themselves well in their individual circumstances. (those %s are "guesstimates" based on knowing the playbook and expected execution not that they have 25% or 5% of the snaps Brady does)
I have confidence that with more experience, average to elite physical attributes (which nearly every NFL QB prospect does) and finding someone who WANTS to be QB (ie competitiveness) and we have the next QB concoction that can keep us as a top tier team moving forward. Again they will never be a GOAT 2.0. But they might be "75% of the GOAT", and that is pretty damned good.