2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

[Super Nomario]

Was this because he can't cover AJ Green (who can?) or because they preferred to have him handle the #2 by himself and give safety help to whoever's on Green? I feel like a guy can still be elite even if he's not always covering the #1 by himself.

It's debatable how much the Patriots' deployment is because of this philosophy, how much was due to Ryan's limitations, and how much has been because of Butler's lack of size. To some degree, I think it's all three, and that's why it has succeeded. In the rare instances where Butler had to match up on a bigger receiver (like in 2015 vs Eric Decker because the NYJ also had Brandon Marshall), he struggled. I don't think using him as a true matchup #1 like Patrick Peterson really plays to his strengths.

I wouldn't assume that he'll be used that way. The Saints could use him more like the Pats did and Revis beforehand - covering shorter, possession oriented receivers without help and therefore allowing teams to double the Julios, Evans, and Benjamins of the world.

They could - and Delvin Breaux's a bigger guy who could maybe take on the bigger receivers - but generally when you pay a guy $12 MM+ you're doing it because you want a lockdown top corner. Is it worth that kind of money to sign a guy just to match up on the #2? Maybe for some teams - Denver pays two CBs big money - but probably not for most.

Butler is a very good player. I won't be heartbroken if we lose him as long as the draft pick compensation is right but lets not sell him short just because he might be leaving.

I am hoping the Dave Roberts effect insulates Butler from the kind of revisionist history Chandler Jones, Collins, and Revis, among others, have gotten.

 

[nighthob]

I don't want to summon an angry Rasputin.

No one likes getting bludgeoned by 12 inches of meatstick.

 

[E5 Yaz]

No one likes getting bludgeoned by 12 inches of meatstick.

He's going to hit you 6 times?

 

[InstaFace]

Anyway, it's an interesting discussion, but again my guess is that a deal is already pretty much in place and it's going to be for 32 and we're going to be disappointed. Hopefully, they get a later round pick too.

I can't remember the last time the Patriots traded away a player and I was disappointed with the eventual outcome after seeing the respective players (And/or their replacements) perform in the subsequent year or two. Only on rare occasions have I even felt neutral about the exchange of value.

 

[nighthob]

He's going to hit you 6 times?

That might kill you. (The image is at the bottom.)

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I can't remember the last time the Patriots traded away a player and I was disappointed with the eventual outcome after seeing the respective players (And/or their replacements) perform in the subsequent year or two. Only on rare occasions have I even felt neutral about the exchange of value.

Asante Samuel is the only one I can think of

 

[E5 Yaz]

That might kill you. (The image is at the bottom.)

Yes, I know the reference. I was going for the diss

 

[nighthob]

Yes, I know the reference. I was going for the diss

Oh I got it, but I never miss an opportunity to link to that story.

 

[Red Averages]

I caught a bit of Bertrand and Zolak chatting with a sports insurance guy on this morning. He said that Butler could buy an insurance policy for something like $250K for the coming season that would pay out $20 million (tax free) if he suffered a career-ending injury.

What does it pay if he tears his ACL in week 15 and misses all of '18 but returns in 19+? Or separates a shoulder and misses several weeks this year, but is OK to play in '18, yet his value is considerably down?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Why should the Patriots discuss a trade until after Butler signs the RFA tender?

I think you listen to anyone who calls and who offers you more than whatever value you place on Butler for one year at $3.91m (plus the opportunity to franchise him thereafter minus the soft factors that I was discussing above like the possibility of a hold out or worry about dissension if you place any negative value on those at all).

We don't know what value the Patriots place on that. It might be 11. It might be 32 (though I think some of us would be a little bit surprised if it were that low). It might be something in between But if a team calls up and says, "we've got a deal in place with Butler's agent where he will commit to signing the tender if you agree to trade him to us, and we'll give you X player and/or Y picks," then I think you have the conversation if X player and/or Y picks are more than you value Butler playing under the tender.

 

[RetractableRoof]

The finances aren't that different though. Last year Germain Ifedi (the last pick in the first round; there were only 31 last year for some reason) signed a deal at a little over $2 MM per season; the 45th pick, Derrick Henry, signed for a little less than $1.4 MM. That's a big difference on a percentage basis, but not in absolute terms - $700K is a tiny fraction of the salary cap. The guaranteed money is more significant - Ifedi had about $6.7 MM in total guarantees, Henry $3.2 MM - but that's only really coming into play if you're cutting the guy before his rookie contract is up, which would be pretty uncommon for top 50 picks. If you really see no difference between the talent available at 32 and 45, sure, you'd rather pay 45 rates, but the talent gap doesn't have to be that much to offset the relatively modest price tag difference.

Fair... But rippled through a full draft perhaps the difference is as a much as 2-3 million when BB is done sliding out of 1 into 2, and out of 2 for an extra 2 next year and a 4 this year, etc. Doesn't sound like much but BB is about paying attention to all the details and turning everything he can into an advantage. That's really the only point I'm making having read the bit that you originally commented on.

[I acknowledge that it probably didn't play as much last year or even this year given the disappearing pick and the already traded picks - but I'm betting it showed in past years when the Patriots had multiple 2, 3, 4 picks.]

 

[tims4wins]

This seems relevant to Butler in that it is an RFA signing...

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter 1m1 minute ago

Vikings giving WR Adam Thielen 3-year, $17M deal that could get to $27M with incentives, including $11M g'teed, per source.

Now, Thielen isn't as good as Butler, and doesn't play as important a position, but is coming off 69 catch, 967 yard, 5 TD season. So I think Butler would want (and deserve) something obviously north of that. 3/$26 seems reasonable to me (my thinking is $4M for 2017, $10M for 2018 as the transition tag value, and $12M for 2019 - not necessarily broken out like that, just how I got to $26M)

 

[DJnVa]

I'm not sure you can compare across positions

 

[Rough Carrigan]

As I was driving to a construction site, I was listening to the radio and they brought up something that I hadn't heard or read. They said that it's not completely clear that the Saints can even fit Butler under their cap if he's being paid something like $14 million per year.

Is that a real possibility, that the Saints can't do the deal because of their cap situation?

 

[E5 Yaz]

As I was driving to a construction site, I was listening to the radio and they brought up something that I hadn't heard or read. They said that it's not completely clear that the Saints can even fit Butler under their cap if he's being paid something like $14 million per year.

Is that a real possibility, that the Saints can't do the deal because of their cap situation?

Subtracting that $3.85 million change in the Saints' overall cap space for the years, the team has about $12.53 million in space remaining for this year.

The Saints will need around $7 million to sign their draft picks, though that number could change if there are more trades. So, for now the team still has some space -- more than an estimated $5 million -- to add players for this season, especially because that cutting Jairus Byrd with a June 1 designation will free up $7.8 million in a few months.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2017/03/estimating_the_new_orleans_sai.html

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

According to OTC, they have about $14 million. Miguel seems to think they have the flexibility to get it done.

 

[tims4wins]

Butler is in New Orleans

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

This seems relevant to Butler in that it is an RFA signing...

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter 1m1 minute ago

Vikings giving WR Adam Thielen 3-year, $17M deal that could get to $27M with incentives, including $11M g'teed, per source.

Now, Thielen isn't as good as Butler, and doesn't play as important a position, but is coming off 69 catch, 967 yard, 5 TD season. So I think Butler would want (and deserve) something obviously north of that. 3/$26 seems reasonable to me (my thinking is $4M for 2017, $10M for 2018 as the transition tag value, and $12M for 2019 - not necessarily broken out like that, just how I got to $26M)

The talk last year was that Butler wanted north of $10M/year (ripping up 2016/2017 - IE 2016-2019 40+M) - I think if it had been what you're proposing they would have just signed him. The Pats are almost never willing to give up those first contract years.

 

[CCR]

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801932/making-sense-of-how-malcolm-butler-and-the-patriots-are-on-verge-of-a-split

"What is it about the 26-year-old Gilmore, who is married with two children, that gave the Patriots more comfort in investing so big in him when compared to the 27-year-old Butler, who is single?

When you bring a player on to your team, you get everything that comes with him — on and off the field."

This is a really strange article from Reiss, who I consider to be one of the better Patriots reporters... He either knows something or is completely grasping at straws but this kind of speculation is very atypical from his usual posts.

 

[Gambler7]

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801932/making-sense-of-how-malcolm-butler-and-the-patriots-are-on-verge-of-a-split

"What is it about the 26-year-old Gilmore, who is married with two children, that gave the Patriots more comfort in investing so big in him when compared to the 27-year-old Butler, who is single?

When you bring a player on to your team, you get everything that comes with him — on and off the field."

This is a really strange article from Reiss, who I consider to be one of the better Patriots reporters... He either knows something or is completely grasping at straws but this kind of speculation is very atypical from his usual posts.

I read that first thing this morning and came away with the same feeling. Really strange and out of character for Reiss. Hinting at something off the field, although there has never been a peep about any issues with Butler.

 

[tims4wins]

Reiss is taking a ton of heat on Twitter etc.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Reiss should be taking a ton of heat...that piece is ridiculous...an insinuation like that can be taken in a multitude of ways (partying, orientation, etc.) and Reiss should know better.

 

[BRYeleJR]

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801932/making-sense-of-how-malcolm-butler-and-the-patriots-are-on-verge-of-a-split

"What is it about the 26-year-old Gilmore, who is married with two children, that gave the Patriots more comfort in investing so big in him when compared to the 27-year-old Butler, who is single?

The whole thing is bizarre. Gronkowski is also 27, single, loves to party, has been linked to a fair share of women, has appeared in movies, has an extensive injury history... and yet he's listed as being a conservative financial risk?

And then there's Butler who is just a 27-year-old single guy who is not married with no children. MAJOR RISK?

Reiss and his editors should be ashamed this one got through. An article with no sources at all simply tries to malign a guy's character based on the fact he's not married. Not to mention it says the only bad risk they've taken in the past is Aaron Hernandez, who's on trial for murder. Reiss is usually better than this.

 

[Jungleland]

Yeah, that's really out of character for Reiss.

Just yelling into the echo chamber here, but with the Hightower deal done and the cap situation still extremely flexible, it's frustrating to watch this play out in a way that almost none of the recent big name departures have been. One of a small handful of players in recent memory where hardball seems to be the wrong move, not the least of which reason is the potentially epic defensive core for the next couple years.

 

[bankshot1]

The insinuation was thick and unfair.

Reiss should have added, "not that there's anything wrong" with being single.

 

[dcmissle]

Let's not do that thing where we tear down a really fucking good player because he may leave our team.

Seems like this deserves bumping - for Reiss.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The whole thing is bizarre. Gronkowski is also 27, single, loves to party, has been linked to a fair share of women, has appeared in movies, has an extensive injury history... and yet he's listed as being a conservative financial risk?

And then there's Butler who is just a 27-year-old single guy who is not married with no children. MAJOR RISK?

Reiss and his editors should be ashamed this one got through. An article with no sources at all simply tries to malign a guy's character based on the fact he's not married. Not to mention it says the only bad risk they've taken in the past is Aaron Hernandez, who's on trial for murder. Reiss is usually better than this.

I think Butler has a young son.

I don't get the Reiss article at all. Is he implying Butler has behavior issues?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Reiss is definitely either implying that or he's implying that the Patriots believe there are issues.

This is a serious misstep by a reporter who has built up a significant amount of credibility. My guess is that Reiss knows something here. He is too good to have made this up out of nothing. But it still stinks for him to tarnish the guy with innuendo. Whatever info he has, either report it or shut up.

Edit: He's taking some social media flak. Hopefully, he takes it seriously.

 

[BRYeleJR]

I think Butler has a young son.

Sorry, my fault. Thanks for the correction.

 

[Unin10D]

Shit I'm 27 and single...guess I won't be getting a long term contract either

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The whole thing is bizarre. Gronkowski is also 27, single, loves to party, has been linked to a fair share of women, has appeared in movies, has an extensive injury history... and yet he's listed as being a conservative financial risk?

And then there's Butler who is just a 27-year-old single guy who is not married with no children. MAJOR RISK?

Reiss and his editors should be ashamed this one got through. An article with no sources at all simply tries to malign a guy's character based on the fact he's not married. Not to mention it says the only bad risk they've taken in the past is Aaron Hernandez, who's on trial for murder. Reiss is usually better than this.

This is where the reputation and ethics of a journalist matter a lot, I think. And I can't say he's wrong based on his track record.

When a proven rumor-monger like Borges or Cafardo or crap thrower like Shank or a proven plagiarist like Tony Mazz claims something I take that against their own demosntrated ethics and question it; Reiss, to my knowledge, has no track record of any of those. So while I think it's tricky to insinuate when you are unwilling to directly say something, it also may be the case he knows something here.

Obviously, he may be wrong here and if so deserves the flak you guys are giving him...and does not deserve benefit of doubt next time. But for me the default when a journalist has a long good track record is not 'he's suddenly making things up' it is 'hmm...wonder why he's comfortable going here now on this particular guy'

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I thought coaches preferred their players to be unmarried anyways. Thinking of the times people freak out when a baseball player misses 1 out of 162 to be at his child's birth and so on.

 

[KingChre]

I guess I am in the minority here, but I did not take Reiss' article as any sort of slight on Butler's character. I took it as him trying to figure out why the Patriots have not yet paid Butler, and trying to fit the pieces together. However he's a good enough writer to know that any piece on Butler is going to be overanalyzed, so he probably could have been more careful with his wording.

My sense is that the intended gist of the article is "there obviously must be something going on with Butler behind the scenes, unrelated to football, what is it?"

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Terrible job by Reiss, whom I always considered the best beat writer for balancing an obvious channel to inside information and fealty for the team he covers with a critical eye and consistent ability to present both sides of a story. And also for writing without ego.

At best, this was careless writing where he failed to consider the possible implications of the ridiculous reference to Butler's being unmarried. At worst, this was a plant from the Pats, looking to cover ass in case Butler winds up leaving town.

 

[Saints Rest]

The benefit of the doubt that I give to Reiss, for a lot or reasons, including what PedrosKsBambino mentions, is that the inference that people are making, that Reiss is insinuating something malicious may be mistaken. Some quotes from the article that could conceivably be read either way -- either as insinuation or as genuine, honest query:

• How did it possibly get to this point?
• So why can’t they work it out?
• Acknowledging that a lot happens behind the scenes that many are unaware of, and never will be, I have kept coming back to something Belichick has repeated often over his 18 years as coach:
• When you bring a player on to your team, you get everything that comes with him -- on and off the field.
• Why wouldn’t Butler, a 2015 Pro Bowl selection who has proved he can stay with some of the top receivers in the game, be included in that conservative category?
  
• Why is Gilmore, who has an injury history to consider, viewed as less risky to Belichick from the total-package standpoint than the durable-to-this-point Butler?

I think it's entirely possible that Reiss is genuinely baffled by this. He's offering that BB has referred to the importance of off-the-field, but nonetheless, he (Reiss) cannot figure out how that could apply to Butler.

 

[dcmissle]

Terrible job by Reiss, whom I always considered the best beat writer for balancing an obvious channel to inside information and fealty for the team he covers with a critical eye and consistent ability to present both sides of a story. And also for writing without ego.

At best, this was careless writing where he failed to consider the possible implications of the ridiculous reference to Butler's being unmarried. At worst, this was a plant from the Pats, looking to cover ass in case Butler winds up leaving town.

I doubt it's a plant. It makes the situation worse, and if they are inclined to trade him, it would increase the Saints' leverage. Either way, it is unfortunate.

 

[BigJimEd]

This probably deserves to be in the media forum but that article was pathetic. It had no information or insight.

Not sure how he can be right or wrong,as some suggested, when he doesn't actually state anything.
Bringing up single vs married as if he's just thinking out loud is poor journalism and extremely unprofessional.
Whether he meant to insinuate there was something there or not he should know better. It is immaterial. If you have something to actually report then report it.
If you don't know then say that. Just because you might have a deadline doesn't mean you print that crap.

Very little respect for Reiss or ESPN.

 

[bakahump]

Yea the "Single" part is weird.
If Reiss had left it at "You have to deal with him off the field as well as on", then I could have seen it as a thinly veiled dig at the agent being tough to work with.
But the single thing does seem misplaced based on the lack of evidence or even rumor. Lets face it SOSH is pretty keyed in. We generally have a good idea if a guy is acting immature or is having issues off the field. Not as much as the team but much more then the common fan. And yet no one has even suggested that in this thread.

 

[ifmanis5]

This isn't Bob Hohler/Terry Francona level but Reiss is way better than this and should know better than to get into this kind of territory. There isn't a results based metric for this stuff, it's pure editorializing and ridiculous speculation. I hope Reiss learns a lesson to not do this again and I really hope Butler brushes this garbage off.

 

[shoosh77]

Not a great article, and that single line is bad. This is the one I picked up on though:

The Patriots and Butler's representatives had negotiated a contract extension last year, and some involved in the process believed a deal was close to being struck.

Maybe he's got some Revis in him, and they don't feel like if they pay him a fair contract now, that it won't become a yearly issue/distraction, whether that would be true or not.

 

[DourDoerr]

They could - and Delvin Breaux's a bigger guy who could maybe take on the bigger receivers - but generally when you pay a guy $12 MM+ you're doing it because you want a lockdown top corner. Is it worth that kind of money to sign a guy just to match up on the #2? Maybe for some teams - Denver pays two CBs big money - but probably not for most.

I think this is it. The way the Pats have been defending big talented receivers like Jones, Decker, Green, etc. has been a work around given Butler's struggles with size. Ideally, BB would like to give that safety more freedom as it'd be even easier to disguise coverages and he can't do it if he has to lock that safety onto a particular receiver. Gilmore is going to free up the defense, but that presumes the other corner can do his job. Butler is almost overqualified for that role, but I don't like the recent history of mediocre CB play prior to Butler's emergence.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Reiss' insinuation makes even less sense given the fact that, before making it, he lists several significantly more plausible reasons for the exploration of trade possibilities:

• The Patriots are using their leverage and are unwilling to budge before they have to, as Butler is a restricted free agent, not unrestricted.

• Butler’s agent, Derek Simpson, is an Alabama-based attorney negotiating his first big NFL contract, and that has created an added obstacle to the team in negotiations.

• Bill Belichick simply sees cornerback Stephon Gilmore, whom the Patriots signed to a five-year, $65 million contract, as a better player who offers more options when matching up against the growing number of bigger receivers in the game.

• Butler’s financial demands have been too high, while the Patriots’ have been too low.

All of those (or some combination of them) make perfect sense to me, so it's extremely odd that Reiss essentially discards them all in favor of his "instinct" that off-field issues are the real cause. Given Reiss' track record as noted here, I have to think he got some sort of tip from the Patriots camp. Of course, that still doesn't excuse him because his job as a reporter is to either (a) investigate the tip before conveying it, or (b) at a minimum, couch it by saying something like "I'm hearing rumors that the Patriots' desire to trade Butler could be tied to off-field issues." While such a statement would still be unfairly vague, it would at least indicate Reiss wasn't simply making something up, as he seems to be doing based on how the article is written.

 

[Toe Nash]

Reading the article, he brings up all the contract issues which Occam's Razor would say is the whole reason they can't get to an agreement, and the reason they signed Gilmore. Gilmore was a UFA, they like him, and so they went and got him. He provides a #1 CB if they can't sign Butler, and if they do sign Butler, having 2 CBs is totally fine. It's harder to sign Butler because he is an RFA and he wants to get paid like a UFA. That's a perfectly reasonable series of statements. Bringing in being married or not is totally out of left field and irresponsible.

 

[Otis Foster]

The only possible inference to be drawn from the married vs single line is unacceptable on any one of several levels. Like others, I'm concerned this will be traced back to the Patriot organization and linked with BB's reference to off-field considerations, and make difficult negotiations even more so.

All in all, a nasty piece of work and shameful from someone like Reiss.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Reading the article, he brings up all the contract issues which Occam's Razor would say is the whole reason they can't get to an agreement, and the reason they signed Gilmore.

Exactly. Plus, Belichick already has experience that suggests these cases do sometimes lead to holdouts (see: Logan Mankins) and he's also shown a heavy desire, especially in recent years, of trading away players for arguably less than market value that are presenting or will present significant contractual problems in the near future (see: Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins). If you think you might not be getting a full season of the player anyway, and you are worried about the contract negotiations impacting the player's performance or the team's chemistry in general, it seems perfectly reasonable to at least explore trade possibilities (even if we can legitimately argue with the value the Patriots get back if and when Butler is traded).

 

[bakahump]

I think this is it. The way the Pats have been defending big talented receivers like Jones, Decker, Green, etc. has been a work around given Butler's struggles with size. Ideally, BB would like to give that safety more freedom as it'd be even easier to disguise coverages and he can't do it if he has to lock that safety onto a particular receiver. Gillmore is going to free up the defense, but that presumes the other corner can do his job. Butler is almost overqualified for that role, but I don't like the recent history of mediocre CB play prior to Butler's emergence.

Using the assumption that they want to get away from or minimize the the Safety Help coverage technique.

You state Butler is "overqualified" as the #2 CB. I disagree. He is probably the perfect #2. He proved it this year by consistently covering #2s with no help.
How did you rank Ryan? I assume under qualified as he needed Safety help to be competent, but to be fair that was on Mega Star WRs.

So who fits in between Butler level and Ryan Level that you would trust on a #2 opposite Gilmore?
Ryan is already making 10mil/yr in this market.
From a cost perspective IMHO paying 13-15 million to both CBs might be a better idea then a "15 Million dollar guy" and a "10 Million dollar guy". Especially when that 10 Million dollar guy probably needs the Safety help we are trying to minimize.
Whats the price point of the guy your looking for? (Better then Logan, Not as good as Butler).

Now off field considerations (Contract Malcontent, Rookie Agent) might devalue Butler, but a s #2 he is perfect.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Not a great article, and that single line is bad. This is the one I picked up on though:

The Patriots and Butler's representatives had negotiated a contract extension last year, and some involved in the process believed a deal was close to being struck.

Maybe he's got some Revis in him, and they don't feel like if they pay him a fair contract now, that it won't become a yearly issue/distraction, whether that would be true or not.

That's what I'm guessing "on and off the field" is supposed to mean. It sounds like some of the contract demands he was making are a little ridiculous considering his position as an RFA.

If he's demanding way more than he's worth, then they shouldn't cave, and they should let him walk.

If Reiss is actually implying something else, he should put up, or shut up.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Reiss apologizes:

Piece on Malcolm Butler was incomplete
Posted on March 16, 2017 by mikereisssports

The piece I wrote Thursday morning on Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler was unfortunately incomplete.

I was trying to explain how we got to this point, and in doing so, phrased things in a way that led to more questions than answers.

After hearing from many readers on Twitter, and speaking with colleagues whose opinions I respect, I wanted to take a moment to explain it here.

Many wondered why I referenced marital status. In reading it back, I can see why. It was awkward.

What possible difference would Butler’s martial status have on the Patriots keeping him around? I never answered that.

Here is the point I was striving to make: The Patriots covet players who don’t have a lot of off-field variables. For instance, one of the things they liked about 2015 first-round draft choice Malcom Brown, who was married with two children when he entered the NFL, was that he was considered mature beyond his years. Vince Wilfork, too.

I’m not saying that a player who isn’t married is undependable, only that, chances are, the player with a wife and kids will have a more predictable day-to-day life and is more settled than a single person. Generally speaking. There are, of course, exceptions.

There is a feeling in town that players who are poised to leave the Patriots are sometimes unfairly maligned. While that was not my intention with Butler, I realize in hindsight how it sounded.

I apologize to Butler for the tone.

 

[NickEsasky]

Reiss is easily the classiest guy in the Boston sports media. I believe him that it was poor execution not ill intent.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Reiss is easily the classiest guy in the Boston sports media. I believe him that it was poor execution not ill intent.

I agree - but his apology isn't really helping.

The argument that single people are unreliable/unpredictable is horseshit. And lazy. I really doubt the Patriots are making player personnel issues based on classifications as generic as "Is single"