2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

[Marbleheader]

This whole situation sucks. Butler is exactly the type of player the Pats should take care of, and if they let Jones, Collins, Hightower and Butler all walk, why would a draftee fully buy in knowing the Pats don't take care of their guys in the end? Butler and Hightower should have been no brainers and never should have gotten to this point. You're going to dink around with these guys then piss away money on a guy like Floyd? I don't like it and I don't care if it saves them a few bucks in the end. They have the money to pay these guys market value and should have done so a while ago.

 

[sezwho]

As a fan I hope they come to a resolution with Butler - its hard to argue with demonstrated and sustained success in our system. That said, the calculation of Gilmore at market rate vs discount Butler OR 1st round pick has to be informed by the Browns move.

Maybe they perceive some value in actually having Osweiler, but it seems the value of a second exceeded the $16m contract the Browns will eat. Whats a first round pick worth (any of our more quant centric members want to tilt at that windmill)? Too bad for Butler his value is depressed by the system, but you can sure count on BB to press his advantage right to the limit.

 

[KingChre]

Realizing RFA's have limited leverage (and that teams rarely, if ever, give up a pick to sign an RFA), a *good* agent would've seen this situation coming, and anticipated the backup plans they seem to just be exploring now.

1) Negotiating an extension last offseason, for a shortened amount of years @ discounted rate. Not what Butler necessarily *wanted*, but what they had the leverage to negotiate at the time. Butler gets some financial security up front, and he's out of the contract by age 29-30, to go for one more payday.

2) Identifying teams that would be interested trading for and extending Butler (this is where it helps to have an agent who's plugged in), and finding out what the Pats' asking price might be for such a trade.

It seems like Butler and agent just didn't appreciate the unique lack of leverage teams have in RFA situations last offseason, and still aren't willing to accept them now.

This is exactly where I am at. It feels like Butler's camp was woefully unprepared for the realities of the CBA.

They can bitch all they want about Gilmore's contract but the reality of the situation is Butler's situation is rather unique, and his cheap contract has been a Godsend for the Patriots. His agent should have known the Patriots would squeeze every last bit out of him (as they should have, it was good business).

I do feel bad for Butler in that he certainly was underpaid, but that's the NFL. Experienced agents understand why this is the case, and if his agent does not, then he should be looking elsewhere for representation.

 

[KingChre]

This whole situation sucks. Butler is exactly the type of player the Pats should take care of, and if they let Jones, Collins, Hightower and Butler all walk, why would a draftee fully buy in knowing the Pats don't take care of their guys in the end? Butler and Hightower should have been no brainers and never should have gotten to this point. You're going to dink around with these guys then piss away money on a guy like Floyd? I don't like it and I don't care if it saves them a few bucks in the end. They have the money to pay these guys market value and should have done so a while ago.

I don't know that I disagree with much of your point, but I imagine the incentive to buy in (aside from winning and not having much of a choice, other than not playing at all) is that sure, maybe the Patriots won't pay you, but it's great for your value to play with them regardless. I think Jones and Collins could show you a big check to prove that point.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

This whole situation sucks. Butler is exactly the type of player the Pats should take care of, and if they let Jones, Collins, Hightower and Butler all walk, why would a draftee fully buy in knowing the Pats don't take care of their guys in the end? Butler and Hightower should have been no brainers and never should have gotten to this point. You're going to dink around with these guys then piss away money on a guy like Floyd? I don't like it and I don't care if it saves them a few bucks in the end. They have the money to pay these guys market value and should have done so a while ago.

Floyd who?

Draftees don't have the luxury of choosing whether or not to fully buy in. Getting cut on your rookie contract doesn't exactly do wonders for your second. Also, if Jones (cashed in), Collins (cashed in), Hightower (about to cash in), and Butler (will eventually cash in) are your cautionary tales then I think most guys would be pretty happy to be drafted by New England.

 

[Stitch01]

If Butler is that unhappy here on his current contract and I understand the RFA mechanics correctly (i.e. Butler can sign the tender, get traded, then negotiate an extension with the new team) I wouldnt be surprised if Butler finds a team that will extend him at the price he wants if the compensation is a bit lower than a 1st rounder and the Pats deal Butler for Chandler Jones like compensation via trade i.e something more valuable than a potential comp pick but less than a first rounder. I dont think this is a situation where the Pats are going to hold the player hostage even though its clearly within their rights to do so and if they arent going to pay Butler #1 corner money its probably the best outcome for all involved to move on.

Id also quibble at Hightower being used as an example of not taking care of guys by paying market value. Seems pretty likely at this point that Hightower's view of his own market value wasnt completely accurate.

 

[bankshot1]

As we don't know what the Pats offered Malcolm (a year ago) its tough to blame them for this situation. Reading the tea leaves it seems Malcolm and his lawyer did not understand the chapter on free agency in the NFLPA handbook. They seem woefully ignorant of the economics, and realities, and were unprepared for this stage of Malcolm's career. I hope it works out. But as noted above, Team Butler should have kicked the tires with other teams in the legal tampering period to get a clue of his demand and value to other teams as a tendered RFA.

 

[Otto]

Not to derail this thread, but do people really think the agent "doesn't understand" the various options and strategies available to him and his client? This thread is three pages long - if you answered yes, do you think someone could read these three pages and understand the various options and strategies available? If you answered yes to both, start over with the first question again.

I'll give you a hint: what you are hearing from the agent (directly and indirectly) is not intended to be a message to other teams.

 

[dcmissle]

My guess is that he misplayed the hand early on and has had difficulty coming up with a creative solution. The Gilmore acquisition was a gut punch, but anyone playing in this space would have anticipated it. Teams turn the page and move on quickly; another example is the Unicorn in GB.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Butler's situation is not unfair to him. Teams in every sport have the advantages in the early years. These rookie deals benefit the team, and the guy cashes in when he accrues enough service time. Kris Bryant might be a top-5 player in his sport, let alone at his position, and he just signed a $1M deal. Someday he'll be a very rich man by baseball standards, but now he's paying his dues. Just like Malcolm.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Not to derail this thread, but do people really think the agent "doesn't understand" the various options and strategies available to him and his client? This thread is three pages long - if you answered yes, do you think someone could read these three pages and understand the various options and strategies available? If you answered yes to both, start over with the first question again.

I'll give you a hint: what you are hearing from the agent (directly and indirectly) is not intended to be a message to other teams.

Otto, I believe you are an agent or in the biz.

Question re Hightower (sorry, wrong thread), but I think many are thinking about both of these guys in a related way so maybe the off topic is ok): do you think the perception that he will give the pats the chance to match has discouraged some teams from bidding? Should the agent have rebutted that? Or do you think he has behind the scenes or tried to?

I take your point that a lot of what is said is for public consumption or is misinformation. About both of them. Just wondering whether High's agent has blundered in this regard.

 

[KingChre]

Not to derail this thread, but do people really think the agent "doesn't understand" the various options and strategies available to him and his client? This thread is three pages long - if you answered yes, do you think someone could read these three pages and understand the various options and strategies available? If you answered yes to both, start over with the first question again.

I'll give you a hint: what you are hearing from the agent (directly and indirectly) is not intended to be a message to other teams.

OK, I'll bite. La Canfora tweeted last night that Butler wants Gilmore money. If we take this at face value (it might not be, but I'm only going on what information I have read), then no, I don't believe his agent was prepared for this situation.

Does he understand Restricted Free agency? Yes, I'm sure he does, and I don't think anyone is suggesting that he doesn't actually understand how the logistics work, but does he have a grasp on the reality of Butler's situation?

If he is asking for the same money that an unrestricted free agent would get, then his agent is not doing his job. Restricted free agents do not get paid like unrestricted free agents, and I don't think I need to explain to anyone on this board why that is the case.

EDIT: After re-reading your post, and TheoShmeo's, I think your point is that the information we read explicitly should not be taken at face value. I think that's a fair point, and we should all try to keep that in mind when reading anything at this time of year.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think the agent's problem at all points in time here (pre-FA period, once Gilmore signed, during Saints negotiations, today) is that he doesn't have a lot of leverage. Pats have Butler at the tender or he doesn't play (or get paid) this year. And they have Butler at the franchise tag in 2018 (something like $14 mil) if they want him. So from the team's perspective, they have a two-year $18 mil deal with only $4 mil guaranteed right now and it's tough to negotiate against that baseline.

The primary asset the agent has is Butler's goodwill and enthusiasm playing for Pats---if that isn't there, the value of that 'two year deal' is pretty limited as they don't like having headaches around. So, he's trying to use that asset to get them to put more money on the table sooner than the above 'two year' option, effectively. Suggesting other teams might want him (and thus that Pats are underying him and creating a problem) and that Butler doesn't want to play with Pats are consistent with this approach, and may or may not be actually 'true' but are all part of the negotiation

 

[DJnVa]

OK, I'll bite. La Canfora tweeted last night that Butler wants Gilmore money. If we take this at face value (it might not be, but I'm only going on what information I have read), then no, I don't believe his agent was prepared for this situation.

There's nothing out there that says the agent can't ask for Gilmore money. You don't open with your final offer. The agent knows, at the end of the day, there's $4m waiting for him in NE.

 

[InstaFace]

Could be true. The guy is definitely underpaid, and as other's have said, that's not NE's fault or anyone else's. It just seems odd that NE is taking such a hard line stance on a guy they got for peanuts and developed into a top-flight CB. In terms of pure football economics, it makes sense to extract maximum value from the player. That doesn't mean it isn't shitty.

Then he should tell his union to negotiate a deal that doesn't treat its players shittily, or provide for indentured servitude.

It's not on the Patriots to go into free agency trying to play by the Marquis of Queensbury rules while everyone else is treating it like a street fight. They're already largely forgoing the franchise tag as a way of playing nice with their players, which is good business practice on both sides. But by calling the RFA tender process "shitty" you're acting like it's something a team shouldn't do, or that another team wouldn't do. I can't see either part of that.

 

[bakahump]

Thats a great point.

I know he is unique so its tough to say but whats a "fair" offer? Would either..

3 years 22 Million with 16 Guaranteed? (6 million base, 2018 4 million base , 2019 2million base, Bonus of 4,4,2 )
2017= 10million
2018= 8 Million
2019 =4 Million
4 Years at 28 with 18 million guaranteed? (8,4,4,2 bases with 4,3,2,1 bonus)
2017= 12 Million
2018= 7 Million
2019= 6 Million
2020= 3 Million

For 3 years barring injury he easily earns 20 (in 2 years). With a LTBE of all 22.
For 4 years barring injury he easily earns 22 (in 2 years). with a LTBE 26 and a decent shot at the whole 28

Pats have the flexibility to jettison him pretty easily after year 2.

Or am I giving him way too much?

 

[jsinger121]

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 2m2 minutes ago
Malcolm Butler has received interest from several teams, per source. Don't be surprised if the action picks up with Butler this week.

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 1m1 minute ago
All that said, I was given a strong indication Butler prefers to be a "Patriot for life." He wants to make it work in New England.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Butler and agent not on the same page? This is all very weird.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

More from Howe:


Patriots offered Butler somewhere around $6M to $7M annually last season. Butler hoped to be paid in the ballpark of a top-10 CB.

Wish the Pats offered him a bit more and got it done last off season.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 23s24 seconds ago
Patriots told Butler last season they wouldn't pay a CB more than $10M annually, so the Gilmore contract was definitely a gut punch.

 

[jsinger121]

More from Howe:


Patriots offered Butler somewhere around $6M to $7M annually last season. Butler hoped to be paid in the ballpark of a top-10 CB.

Wish the Pats offered him a bit more and got it done last off season.

I mean was it before last season or during the season. You can make a case for the Pats number at 6-7 million if it was before the season considering they really only had one full body year of work under his belt as a starter.

 

[boca]

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 8m8 minutes ago
More
Malcolm Butler has received interest from several teams, per source. Don't be surprised if the action picks up with Butler this week.

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 7m7 minutes ago
More
All that said, I was given a strong indication Butler prefers to be a "Patriot for life." He wants to make it work in New England.

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 6m6 minutes ago
More
Patriots offered Butler somewhere around $6M to $7M annually last season. Butler hoped to be paid in the ballpark of a top-10 CB.

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 4m4 minutes ago
More
Patriots told Butler last season they wouldn't pay a CB more than $10M annually, so the Gilmore contract was definitely a gut punch.

 

[bakahump]

And thats where we are right?

6-7 Maybe 8 a year for him as an RFA.
10+ is UFA territory.

I know my hypothetical numbers were closer to last years offer, but I though maybe reality might have set in after seeing the (lack of??) interest.

And Hell 20-25 million is still alot of money when its this close to fruition.

 

[Van Everyman]

Fingers crossed this "wants to make it work in NE" thing is real.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, one could argue that the "won't pay more than $10m" refers to salary, not signing bonus. Gilmore's salary is $44.5m for 5 years.

I don't know. If Howe's info is recent, maybe we're seeing a softening.

 

[Ed Hillel]

We're getting one side of the story here, remember, and I'm guessing Belichick doesn't appreciate this info going public. Seven million is a reasonable offer if it included buying out 2016 and 2017, but we don't have those details.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Well, one could argue that the "won't pay more than $10m" refers to salary, not signing bonus. Gilmore's salary is $44.5m for 5 years.

I don't know. If Howe's info is recent, maybe we're seeing a softening.

Having Butler and Gilmore signed long term AND have plenty of cap room left over? Give Butler a nice signing bonus and hopefully he makes good on the "Patriot for life" thing.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Things also change year to year. Last year? No interest in paying a CB that much money. Prove it to us again that you're worth that kind of money because we don't have to give it to you now. Now? We've got more cap space and you've got another season of very good play under your belt. Let's talk, but don't forget you're still a restricted free agent. You aren't getting UFA money.

 

[bakahump]

Well thats negotiating too right?

Imagine if they said
"Yea 10 Million a year is fine for us to pay for the right CB"
"Ok then pay me that"
"Ummm no we dont value you that high"
"What?? So I am not the right CB?"

So couple reasons. One LAST year you tell him that so he doesnt feel its personal. Two they knew they had leverage and 10 million with the leverage they had was simply too much.

Instead you say "Geez....we love you Malcolm but we are not paying any CB 10 mil per we wouldnt even pay many 6.....for you how bout 7?"

Is it a gut punch considering the Gilmore signing "so quickly" after the comment? Sure...but its also business. Pats might also have thought that Buffalo would Franchise Gilmore and that they wouldnt get the opportunity to pay 10 million per to a CB during this negotiation with Butler . So it seemed like a smart comment at the time.


Or what Elcab said.

 

[koufax32]

So BB said "nobody above $10 mil." while hoping Butler would forget about Revis?

Even putting aside BB explaining his roster building philosophy and strategy during a contract negotiation, I find this very improbable.

 

[steveluck7]

Well, one could argue that the "won't pay more than $10m" refers to salary, not signing bonus. Gilmore's salary is $44.5m for 5 years.

I don't know. If Howe's info is recent, maybe we're seeing a softening.

This could also be a little bit of "Telephone" here. "We won't pay a CB $10mm" may very well have been "we won't pay you $10mm before UFA"

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Is Butler as good as Gilmore? If so, why not just pitch to him the Gilmore deal but require him to offset it due to the fact that they have him for this year at $3.91m. Patriots get the full benefit of the last year of control, and Butler gets a big extension at Gilmore money. Patriots lose if he gets injured this year or regresses, he loses the right to get the full Gilmore deal next year or to try to hit a home run with an offer from a team willing to give up a first rounder.

Maybe call it "5/56," do the same general structure as the Gilmore guarantees with something like $30 million "guaranteed" after year two but a true first-two year guarantee of $22 million.

 

[BigJimEd]

And thats where we are right?

6-7 Maybe 8 a year for him as an RFA.
10+ is UFA territory.

I know my hypothetical numbers were closer to last years offer, but I though maybe reality might have set in after seeing the (lack of??) interest.

And Hell 20-25 million is still alot of money when its this close to fruition.

Or from Butler's POV ufa is 13+ as Gilmore and Bouye got.

 

[Curt S Loew]

So BB said "nobody above $10 mil." while hoping Butler would forget about Revis?

Yeah. That's made up. BB didn't tell him that.

 

[BigJimEd]

Is Butler as good as Gilmore? If so, why not just pitch to him the Gilmore deal but require him to offset it due to the fact that they have him for this year at $3.91m. Patriots get the full benefit of the last year of control, and Butler gets a big extension at Gilmore money. Patriots lose if he gets injured this year or regresses, he loses the right to get the full Gilmore deal next year or to try to hit a home run with an offer from a team willing to give up a first rounder.

Maybe call it "5/56," do the same general structure as the Gilmore guarantees with something like $30 million "guaranteed" after year two but a true first-two year guarantee of $22 million.

I think something like that is pretty fair. Might even give him a little more. 5/60.
But about 22M in first two years virtually all guaranteed so he gets a bump from one year+franchise tag.
35 over 3 with an easy out for Pats.

Not sure Butler will go for it but there is still plenty of room for both sides to negotiate and possibly get deal done.

 

[lexrageorge]

The "gut punch" comment is nonsense. Bottom line is that there is a value that the Pats have put on Butler; that value is based both on his play and the fact that he's an RFA. Butler's agent think his value is higher. So the Pats prepared with Plan B.

An offer sheet can still happen. Teams go for UFA's first, as there are no strings attached. Now that the premium UFA's are mostly off the table, Butler's market could open up a bit.

To address an earlier question: Yes, Butler could hold out. But the Pats can reduce his tender significantly after June 15. And so Butler would be sacrificing over $3M if he decided to hold out for half the season, and likely impact his UFA market value (GM's put a huge weight on prior season's performance). And if Butler were to hold out the entire season, the Pats can simply toll the contract forward.

A sign-and-trade is still possible, but Butler has to be willing to sign the Pats tender first, and I don't see the Pats settling for a 3rd or 4th round pick for Butler. There is really no reason for the Pats to do that.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yeah. That's made up. BB didn't tell him that.

Easy to imagine Pats telling Butler either:

a) "we don't think you are a $10 mil a year player" (and if they did, which we don't know, I can appreciate him being upset at the Gilmore deal)

b) "we don't think anyone with your experience gets $10 mil a year" (which I think is true, at least adjusting for position)

All of this is seeking to influence public perception---likely limited truth or context to most of what we're reading now.

 

[InstaFace]

Yeah. That's made up. BB didn't tell him that.

"NPH wouldn't do that, man".

 

[wilked]

Any contract offer has to be considered vs his 'existing' possible contract

2017 - $3.91MM (RFA)
2018 - Team option for $19MM (franchise tag)

And the Patriots would get to go year to year on that, which significantly mitigates risk.

For them to 'tear that up' and offer him an extension, it would have to make sense for the Patriots, and Butler would have to give something up.

For those feeling bad for Butler, remember it still is $4MM guaranteed, remember that there is a good chance he is not in this position without the Patriots taking a chance on him back in 2014. If that doesn't happen he realistically is not where he is today, considering offers for $10MM/yr.

I think the Patriots are playing this fine - they hold the cards in this situation. As noted, the only one not playing it fine is Butler's agent who seems to be getting exposed as a rookie here.

Hopefully they find a middle ground on an extension, maybe a 3-4 year deal. The Patriots made a shrewd move if you ask me signing Gilmore, increasing their 'hand' in this negotiation. It's these negotiations that have enabled them to be so successful. They take sentiment out of the negotiation, they don't 'backpay' for past performance, and they are willing to let players walk if $$ exceeds their estimated 'worth'. The sentimentality / feeling bad for Butler seems really misplaced here, and probably is due to one play in the Super Bowl a few years ago

 

[Otto]

Otto, I believe you are an agent or in the biz.

Question re Hightower (sorry, wrong thread), but I think many are thinking about both of these guys in a related way so maybe the off topic is ok): do you think the perception that he will give the pats the chance to match has discouraged some teams from bidding? Should the agent have rebutted that? Or do you think he has behind the scenes or tried to?

I take your point that a lot of what is said is for public consumption or is misinformation. About both of them. Just wondering whether High's agent has blundered in this regard.

Short answer is no, I don't see that as a blunder. I generally expect that a player like Hightower (established / high quality player coming off his rookie deal) would remain in the mix with his original club, absent some extenuating circumstances related to cap issues or team structure. Essentially, other teams already know that and have some version of that with their own players, so everyone is on the same page. That said, at some point in the process teams will ask where things stand and whether their offers are being shopped - and will set a deadline, after which they will move to a different player.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Howe saying Butler will sign the tender and will not hold out if Pats keep him:
Maybe to make Butler feel better, you offer him 2/17 with 7-8 guaranteed and more up front. Otherwise, barring a good trade offer, I'd just keep him and probably franchise him next year, barring injury or performance drop.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Michael Lombardi‏Verified account @mlombardiNFL 1h1 hour ago
All the reporting that he is unhappy in Foxboro-- is to let other teams know come make me an offer.....that's all.

 

[Bowhemian]

Michael Lombardi‏Verified account @mlombardiNFL 1h1 hour ago
All the reporting that he is unhappy in Foxboro-- is to let other teams know come make me an offer.....that's all.

That doesn't seem like a very wise strategy.

 

[Marciano490]

That doesn't seem like a very wise strategy.

I'm a malcontent. Pay me.

It's like going on a date and hearing someone slag all their exes. Maybe it's you, darlin'.

 

[Devizier]

I think the bottom line here is that what is reported in the press ≠ reality.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think the bottom line here is that what is reported in the press ≠ reality.

Yup. The Jeff Howe tweets are more spin than reality. For instance, I don't buy the idea that they told him or his agent they wouldn't pay a corner $10M. That's completely out of character

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think the bottom line here is that what is reported in the press ≠ reality.

Easy there, Donald! Jokes aside, I've grown tired trying to read the tea leaves on this one. I think Malcolm probably wants to stay but knows he's one bad step away from losing millions. There has to be a reasonable solution for both parties here.

 

[DavidTai]

It feels like a few key words get left out of the 'not paying 10 million'. Like, maybe, 'Not paying an RFA 10 million.'

 

[dbn]

Count me in the camp that feels Butler would be much better served with an agent who has experience in this sort of thing. Sure, we all here can armchair agent this, but he and Malcolm are playing a game of Diplomacy that will have a major effect on his life and potentially tens of millions of dollars.

Maybe this agent pulls it off with brilliance and all works out for Butler - in fact I hope for his sake it does - but in his shoes I'd be way more comfortable with an experienced agent.

 

[Infield Infidel]

If he was offered $6-7, doesn't it matter the years? He probably takes a two year deal at that much to get beyond his rookie deal, but not 4 years