2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread

Sam Ray Not

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I'll put in a shameless plug for Bob Myers, who went into the offseason with Thompson and Green as the only vets under contract, signed Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, Nick Young, David West, Pachulia, McGee and Casspi — the last four of those to vet min contracts — and then added Jordan Bell (currently the #28 ranked player and #6 PF in the NBA by RPM) with a second round pick he didn't have.
 
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Kliq

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I'll put in a shameless plug for Bob Myers, who went into the offseason with Thompson and Green as the only vets under contract, signed Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, Nick Young, David West, Pachulia, McGee and Casspi — the last four of those to vet min contracts — and then added Jordan Bell (currently the #28 ranked player and #6 PF in the NBA by RPM) with a second round pick he didn't have.
SRN’s favorite stats in order:

1. True shooting percentage

2. Real Plus Minus

3. Player height in bare feet.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I also enjoy listening to Danny on Dunc'd on. I was listening to the latest 15 in 60 (1/2 western conference) and I heard Nate Duncan extolling the virtues of Tom Thibodeau as an executive and suggesting that he was going to earn the executive of the year award. He asked Danny if there was anyone else in the running and Danny replied "I don't know, I figured Danny Ainge was going to get it." Whereupon Nate went into a mini rant about how the Celtics record was going to be no improvement over last and he didn't see how Ainge had improved the team this year.

My question is... Is Nate Duncan (He of the F+ grade for the Celtics offseason) clueless? or actively trolling Celtics fans? He has complained several times on the air about irate Celtics fans responding to him on twitter. Is he inviting it? Is it past time to hit the ignore button?
I thought that offseason recap was beyond atrocious---there was superficial analysis and a grade, and the real criticism was 'we can't come up wtih a better trade, or use of the Nets pick, but it must exist so we give him a bad grade' They are both passionate fans and have a lot of knowledge, and I enjoy them (though i have to admit the awfulness of the offseason pod and my own schedule changing have resulted in about two listens the last four months) but we shouldn't confuse their ability to break down what is going on on the court with Zach Lowe or anything.

One note from that RealGM podcast: Leroux's Tatum draft comp was Aaron Gordon---I mean, these guys were radically different at both end of the court in college. They don't have the same tools or skills. I guess they sort of have similar builds, but so what? It's just really odd. But other times, he's interesting and there is no questioning how much info he has at his fingertips, so there's something there even if he misses some big things.
 

sezwho

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My question is... Is Nate Duncan (He of the F+ grade for the Celtics offseason) clueless? or actively trolling Celtics fans? He has complained several times on the air about irate Celtics fans responding to him on twitter. Is he inviting it? Is it past time to hit the ignore button?
I also thought both were pretty off base when I heard them. However, fwiw I think he was just wrong and not trolling.

As @lovegtm indicated (or I thought was indicating) there will always be some hot takes when you create as much content as they do. Questioning the amount of games he watches, or the analytical underpinnings of his positions, is just was warranted for him as anyone else but for me its definitely more interesting content than sour notes (that Aaron Gordon one was kind of weird as well).

Besides, offseason grades, executive of the year, he-is-like-him-no-he-isn't, and post-trade reaction grades have pretty much no other purpose than to be the hot-takiest of takes, so I'm willing to extend way more rope with that poo-pile of topics.
 

Sam Ray Not

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SRN’s favorite stats in order:

1. True shooting percentage

2. Real Plus Minus

3. Player height in bare feet.
Haha, I didn't even note Jordan Bell's .688 true shooting! Or that he's like 6'-6" in bare feet. :)

I'm actually not a fan of RPM — don't like the opacity of the formula, with its mysterious boxscore regression; and as with all plus-minus measures it's super noisy in small samples. I used it as shorthand there since I didn't want to get into too much detail in a parenthetical aside, but I think some combo of TS%, usage rate, rebound rate, assist rate, block rate and steal rate tell the Jordan Bell story much more descriptively.

But how can anyone not love TS%? It's one of the simplest and clearest single metrics in hoops — as lovable as OBP%. Taken with usage rate, it tells you almost everything you need to know about a player's overall scoring prowess.
 
Aug 24, 2017
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I'll put in a shameless plug for Bob Myers, who went into the offseason with Thompson and Green as the only vets under contract, signed Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, Nick Young, David West, Pachulia, McGee and Casspi — the last four of those to vet min contracts — and then added Jordan Bell (currently the #28 ranked player and #6 PF in the NBA by RPM) with a second round pick he didn't have.
Is this serious?

Curry and Durant were only "unsigned" due to salary cap paperwork reasons.

And of course Bell has been very good in low-impact situations. But you know what happens when those lights come on...

https://i.imgur.com/8T9orIG.jpg
 

the moops

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I believe he said Tatum was a more talented, less athletic Aaron Gordon.
Sure, that is wrong, but I am not sure you could find too many people who predicted the polish that Tatum would have this early.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I believe he said Tatum was a more talented, less athletic Aaron Gordon.
Sure, that is wrong, but I am not sure you could find too many people who predicted the polish that Tatum would have this early.
I think he said it as a straight comp initially, but regardless what does the above actually mean? Gordon was, basically, a tremendous athlete with defensive versatility and questions around his skills. Tatum was a talented and polished offensive players with questions around his range and athleticism. There is literally nothing similar about their games, and never has been. Why would anyone compare them? Do others see something there, perhaps?

We all get things wrong...I just found that one really, really odd.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Is this serious?

Curry and Durant were only "unsigned" due to salary cap paperwork reasons.
I mean, they were unsigned because they were unrestricted free agents. Not saying signing them was some amazing feat that any competent GM would not have achieved. On the other hand, Livingston and Iguodala were both widely presumed gone — it took some deft GM-ing (plus the generosity of KD) to keep them around. And nobody saw the acquisitions of Casspi, Young and Bell, who have all been significantly better than the guys they replaced (Varejao/Matt Barnes, Clark and McAdoo).

As for Bell: not sure how you define "low impact situations," but the dude has been starting and closing games for the defending champs. And again: using one clip as evidence that he shrinks "when the lights come on" is either trollish or silly — you can find a similar clip about anyone. (More than anything what the failure to corral those boards told me is that Bell is not optimally tall). If finding a legit rotation player like Bell (or McCaw) for a finals contender in the second round were easy, the Cavs would have found one over the last 3-4 years.

All that said: I'd vote for Ainge for the Tatum/Fultz deal alone. If that pick conveys, that may go down as one of the all time swindles.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I think he said it as a straight comp initially, but regardless what does the above actually mean? Gordon was, basically, a tremendous athlete with defensive versatility and questions around his skills. Tatum was a talented and polished offensive players with questions around his range and athleticism. There is literally nothing similar about their games, and never has been. Why would anyone compare them? Do others see something there, perhaps?

We all get things wrong...I just found that one really, really odd.

Maybe it was last year's Aaron Gordon? Not a very good 3 point shooter, shoots too many mid range jumpers.The last half of that isn't really true, but if you squint...
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I believe he said Tatum was a more talented, less athletic Aaron Gordon.
Sure, that is wrong, but I am not sure you could find too many people who predicted the polish that Tatum would have this early.
Jayson Tatum - Polished Scorer The St. Louis native is the most polished scorer of the bunch, with stellar footwork, excellent touch 18 feet in, and a mid-post/back to basket game that rivals some NBA vets. Hard jab-step pull-ups, rocker-steps, side-steps, turnarounds, Dirk fallaways, quick spins, you name it, Tatum likely has it in his arsenal.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/

Tatum has the total offensive package, and is already extremely polished when it comes to scoring. Most freshmen are raw coming into college, and some are still very raw when heading to the NBA. Tatum can score in the mid-range game, off the dribble, he can create his own shot in isolation, he can get to the rim and finish, and he can shoot from 3.
https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2017/02/08/hh-draft-profile-jayson-tatum/

Tatum’s offensive repertoire is as polished as any one-and-done you’ll see. His bread-and-butter is his jab series — his footwork, whether facing up or playing with his back to the basket, is impeccable — but he has the entire package offensively: crossovers, step-backs, turnaround jumpers, fadeaways, jump hooks, in-and-outs, rip-throughs and he even pulls out the Dirk Nowitzki one-foot fallaway jumpers from time-to-time.
https://sports.yahoo.com/2017-nba-draft-prospect-profiles-115541116.html
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I forget, but was Tatum compared to Carmelo? I know he's compared to Pierce all the time.
From that Yahoo article:

NBA COMPARISON: Anyone that watched Tatum play last season will understand why the easiest comparison to make is to Carmelo Anthony. They’re both roughly the same size with roughly the same skill-set — isolation scorers that can face-up, score in the post and thrive on making tough, two-point jumpers. The difference, however, is that Melo was a good 30 pounds heavier than Tatum after his one-and-done season, which is why he averaged 22 points and 10 boards and led Syracuse to a national title. Melo is the prototype for the kind of big wing or small-ball four that has become so valuable in the NBA.

I don’t think Tatum will ever be as good as peak-Melo was, and that’s assuming he puts on the bulk to be able to play the four. Perhaps the better comparison, then, is Paul Pierce, who was more of a natural wing scorer, a guy with less-than-stellar athleticism and a terrific mid-range game.
 
Aug 24, 2017
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And again: using one clip as evidence that he shrinks "when the lights come on" is either trollish or silly — you can find a similar clip about anyone.
It was TWICE, not once.

What happened was, he was in the defensive box and let a smaller guy get over him, out hustle him, out work him and grab the offensive rebound on a free throw. He was shaken and visibly upset. Then, literally three seconds later, after his team fouled again, he lets the same thing happen to him with the same guy. Smaller guy, a guy currently getting a few minutes a night in the G-League, just out works him, out hustles him and take the rebound from him.

It sealed the National Semi-Final game. After the game he correctly blamed himself and was crying like crazy. Really sad stuff.
 

the moops

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I get that Tatum was a polished college scorer. I should have used a different word I guess. Nobody envisioned him doing what he is doing this early in his career.
 

cheech13

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So Jordan Bell takes a couple of bad reads on foul shot misses and that somehow tells us all we need to know about his character and ability? Okay then.
 

DannyDarwinism

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As for Bell: not sure how you define "low impact situations," but the dude has been starting and closing games for the defending champs. And again: using one clip as evidence that he shrinks "when the lights come on" is either trollish or silly — .
Oh, it's a good bit of both, but credit where it's due for commitment to the bit. Here's the origin of this particular routine, if you're so inclined: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2017-nba-draft-thread.16589/page-17#post-2252240.

Mainly I just wanted to post that because it's me looking prescient about Jordan Bell.
 
Aug 24, 2017
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He also purposely went to Oregon instead of the ACC
You know, this is just such an excellent point. Had he gone somewhere where they play Big Time college basketball then he would have been used to those situations and may not have shrunk so embarrassingly.

Yet another reason to forego the cash (because it's not life changing cash at the college level, Bell probably only made 10-20K) and get the experience.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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DeRozan with 35 points on 10-20 and 5-8 from deep as Toronto beats the Bulls. The Raptors are looking like the dark horse in the East.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Lakers wearing their Minneapolis throwbacks again. Whoever said they seen to wear those more than their primary jerseys was right.
 

lovegtm

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Lakers wearing their Minneapolis throwbacks again. Whoever said they seen to wear those more than their primary jerseys was right.
Yeah that was me. Honestly it's just getting weird at this point and I want to know what's going on.
 

DJnVa

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I believe he views his career game averages as a significant component to his place in history. He makes choices not to come out early primarily to avoid having a game where he puts up underwhelming game stats on short minutes. Do you have a theory why he has extremely high minute counts at this stage of his career, unquestionably at his choice, and yet continually downplays it (imho to provide air cover for Lue)?
So what happened tonight?
 

Sam Ray Not

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You know, this is just such an excellent point. Had he gone somewhere where they play Big Time college basketball then he would have been used to those situations and may not have shrunk so embarrassingly.
Lol, yeah. Imagine how good Bell, Kuzma, Ball and Jaylen Brown would have been — plus, you know, Kareem, Walton, Kidd, Billups, Payton, Reggie Miller, Baron Davis, Love, Westbrook, Iguodala, Kerr et al. — if they had played in a “big time” college basketball conference.

I mean, what would compel an LA kid like Bell to play in the Pac 12 other than abject fear of the spotlight?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The Lakers have really regressed defensively. I don't know whether its just the wear and tear of the season or the team not quite buying into Walton as much but their defensive intensity was keeping them afloat earlier in the season and its just not there anymore.

This is going to be their eighth straight home loss and probably their fourth in a row by double digits, none against elite teams (Minnesota, Memphis, Clips, OKC). Its pretty ugly in Lakerland right now.
 

Manzivino

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Didn't realize the Mavs had come all the way back to tie the Warriors with 12 seconds left; Curry hit a 3 with 3 seconds left to win it. Dallas is playing much better than their record (3 games under their Pythag coming into today), hopefully they can win enough games to clear the bottom feeders before they sell off.
 

Manzivino

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The Lakers have really regressed defensively. I don't know whether its just the wear and tear of the season or the team not quite buying into Walton as much but their defensive intensity was keeping them afloat earlier in the season and its just not there anymore.

This is going to be their eighth straight home loss and probably their fourth in a row by double digits, none against elite teams (Minnesota, Memphis, Clips, OKC). Its pretty ugly in Lakerland right now.
Missing Ball has really hurt them defensively, he's by far their best defensive guard and one of their best defenders overall.

In optimistic news for the pick, tonight's loss keeps them a game behind their pace from last season through 37 games; they were 12-25 and in the seventh draft position.
 

BigSoxFan

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What’s the story with Zubac? He looked like a nice future piece for the Lakers last year and now he isn’t getting any run at all.
 

Eddie Jurak

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All that said: I'd vote for Ainge for the Tatum/Fultz deal alone. If that pick conveys, that may go down as one of the all time swindles.
It brings to mind the last time the Celtics moved down from #1 overall to #3... locking in 2/3 of the Big Three in the process. This one won't be THAT good but still a tremendous move.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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LAC have won 6 out of 7 to climb back in the playoff race. They are 9-3 when Teodosic plays and he deserves a playoff spotlight. A win tonight against OKC would help.

BTW, here's a sweet pass by Teodosic.

 

DJnVa

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Tummy ache? Seriously though, does Bron playing 33minutes prove a point?
That he could have played more since you said he never takes himself out in order to pad his counting stats? 33 minutes a game would be a nice average.
 
Aug 24, 2017
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Lol, yeah. Imagine how good Bell, Kuzma, Ball and Jaylen Brown would have been — plus, you know, Kareem, Walton, Kidd, Billups, Payton, Reggie Miller, Baron Davis, Love, Westbrook, Iguodala, Kerr et al. — if they had played in a “big time” college basketball conference.

I mean, what would compel an LA kid like Bell to play in the Pac 12 other than abject fear of the spotlight?
Every player has different weaknesses in their game (I mean except Lebron and Durant. I don't think they even own weaknesses). In some cases where you go to spend a year (or, 2, 3, even sometimes 4) playing college basketball can be an opportunity to work on those weaknesses. Tatum wanted to work on his three point shot, so he went to Duke (for instance).

I just say this to say that obviously there are great players in all kinds of conferences. But Jordan Bell's specific weakness is a mental one. He shrinks. During a regular season game he's just tremendous. But if you turn the lights on? He crumbles. And I am just suggesting that he could have worked on this weakness by playing Big Time college basketball, where the stakes are lower than the NBA, as opposed to taking the 10-20K to play at Oregon. Now, I don't know his financial situation so it could have been that $$$ was needed. If so, I retract (though presumably he could have gone the Louisville route).

The thing is...all this is moot. Steve Kerr is a smart dude. He's going to play and feature Bell this year and get his main guys lots of rest. And then when the playoffs come around he'll staple Bell to the bench where he can't do any damage, perhaps giving him some pity minutes late in games in blowouts. But Kerr knows what we know and saw what we all saw. When the moment came, Jordan Bell exited the stage.

 

sezwho

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That he could have played more since you said he never takes himself out in order to pad his counting stats? 33 minutes a game would be a nice average.
Didn't say never, though I can understand building that straw man from my comments. Its correct that 33min would be a nice average, however its actually over 37 this season and for his career. Just to flesh out the picture, which I concede shows 2 games where he went under 30 minutes and doesn't support my position, but also shows 10 times he's been over 40 already.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01/gamelog/2018/
20-29 2
30-39 26
40+ 10

My initial choice to describe his minutes position as an 'obsession' was too strong but I remain convinced that a fundamental part of his decision making to play heavy minutes, or not at all, is driven by wanting to keep his ppg (etc) as high as possible for historical purposes.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Every player has different weaknesses in their game (I mean except Lebron and Durant. I don't think they even own weaknesses). In some cases where you go to spend a year (or, 2, 3, even sometimes 4) playing college basketball can be an opportunity to work on those weaknesses. Tatum wanted to work on his three point shot, so he went to Duke (for instance).

I just say this to say that obviously there are great players in all kinds of conferences. But Jordan Bell's specific weakness is a mental one. He shrinks. During a regular season game he's just tremendous. But if you turn the lights on? He crumbles [snip]
I mean, you can go online and find thousands of ten-cent wannabe sports psychologists who have spewed similar nonsense about LeBron, Durant, or anyone else.

Neither you nor I have any idea what's in Bell's head, or what Kerr “knows” about him, or how many minutes he’ll see in the playoffs, or what kind of pro he'll end up (etc.) so this is a pretty pointless and boring topic. Apologies to the Port Cellar for the derailment. (But I’m sure the Crying Bell and “Pac 12 Sucks” memes are a laff riot on Reddit Tar Heels or wherever...)
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Curry (per 36 mins.)

Unanimous MVP season: 31.7 pts on .669 true shooting / 5.7 reb / 7.0 ast / 3.5 tov
Low-key 2017-18 season: 30.0 pts on .662 true shooting / 5.6 reb / 7.2 ast / 3.1 tov

@Kliq: 6'-2" in bare feet in both seasons. ;-P