2016 NFL Gambling Thread

Marciano490

Urological Expert
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Nov 4, 2007
55,056
I'm not as mathematically inclined as others here and didn't graph or chart it, but I remember in the threads a couple years ago always talking about taking the line that Peyton would throw an INT. Yeah it crept from like -180 to -270 over the first few games of the season, but it was a pretty awesome bet. I'm sure for things like that someone could figure out how much to bet per game to ensure you're keeping your profit while still having the best chance to max out.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
I've made a lot of money live betting Pats games the past few weeks. The lines are extremely volatile as they move against the bets being placed. It seems like the average bettor treats this team like any other and overreacts to a bad series here or there. It enables me to make really good value bets. For example, pre-game I took the Pats -3 points. When the game was tied 3-3, I was able to get the Pats +1/2. And at 10-3, I was able to get the Pats at -3 again.

I know there will be games when this strategy fails because even the Pats lose once in a while, but I think it's going to work out in my favor more often than not. At least it has so far.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
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Nov 4, 2007
55,056
I've made a lot of money live betting Pats games the past few weeks. The lines are extremely volatile as they move against the bets being placed. It seems like the average bettor treats this team like any other and overreacts to a bad series here or there. It enables me to make really good value bets. For example, pre-game I took the Pats -3 points. When the game was tied 3-3, I was able to get the Pats +1/2. And at 10-3, I was able to get the Pats at -3 again.

I know there will be games when this strategy fails because even the Pats lose once in a while, but I think it's going to work out in my favor more often than not. At least it has so far.
What site?
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Los Angeles, CA
What site?
Bovada. But as of tonight, I'm withdrawing all of my money so I'll be doing future live betting in HeritageSports.eu.. I still have a bunch of open game and futures bets at Bovada. Whatever I win from those, I'll probably just keep there in case they ever have a particular line that I like.

Edit: I forgot to add that, at halftime I was also able to get the Pats at pick 'em for the 2nd half at only -105 juice. That seemed silly to me. If the line pre-game was -3 or -3-1/2 and the Pats won the first half, why would they be a pick 'em for the 2nd half? Sure, the Broncos had first possession coming up, but even still that was another easy bet for me.
 
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j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
10,045
Anyone else looking at tonight's game? Crazy line movement today from NYG -3 down to NYG +1 for a bit now back to NYG -1. No real confirmation if it is sharps or line manipulation to draw PHI $$.

I'm taking NYG -1 for a unit. They are the better team with more to play for and the only weakness PHI can exploit is TE coverage. If Zack Ertz can beat NYG so be it.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
25,511
Since we're talking about spreads and specifically large spreads it's important to know the historicals on these large numbers.

From 1978 to present a favorite has covered 46.8% of the time. When it is a double digit favorite that number drops to 43.7% since 1978. From 2002 to present the favorite covers only 42% of the time and since 2008 that number drops further to 41% which encompasses 173 regular season games so the sample isn't small. This is one reason why when I do make a play it is 99% likely to be on an underdog.

I learned years (decades?) ago from a professional handicapper friend that THE single most valuable handicapping tool in the NFL were the public wagering numbers in fading these plays where the public is over 75-80%. Here is this weeks games with the team along with the pct of wagers on them (using 6 high profile books).

The public numbers for today in the NFL:
Tenn 82
Green Bay 79
San Diego 75

Wash 69
Detroit 67
Tampa 64
Atlanta 64
KC 64
New England 63
Seattle 61
Miami 55
Oakland 55
Houston 53
San Fran 51
Baltimore 51


Edit: Belongs in all purpose gambling thread but since wagering discussion is here. Did you know.......that Last year on Christmas Day all 5 NBA games went Under the total? And 3 of them weren't even close. I could only go back 5 years on my site to see that in those 25 games the Under was +7 units at 14-7-4 (I called the 4 games within 1 point of the consensus line a push as their were numbers both even and on other side).
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
Since we're talking about spreads and specifically large spreads it's important to know the historicals on these large numbers.

From 1978 to present a favorite has covered 46.8% of the time. When it is a double digit favorite that number drops to 43.7% since 1978. From 2002 to present the favorite covers only 42% of the time and since 2008 that number drops further to 41% which encompasses 173 regular season games so the sample isn't small. This is one reason why when I do make a play it is 99% likely to be on an underdog.

I learned years (decades?) ago from a professional handicapper friend that THE single most valuable handicapping tool in the NFL were the public wagering numbers in fading these plays where the public is over 75-80%. Here is this weeks games with the team along with the pct of wagers on them (using 6 high profile books).

The public numbers for today in the NFL:
Tenn 82
Green Bay 79
San Diego 75

Wash 69
Detroit 67
Tampa 64
Atlanta 64
KC 64
New England 63
Seattle 61
Miami 55
Oakland 55
Houston 53
San Fran 51
Baltimore 51


Edit: Belongs in all purpose gambling thread but since wagering discussion is here. Did you know.......that Last year on Christmas Day all 5 NBA games went Under the total? And 3 of them weren't even close. I could only go back 5 years on my site to see that in those 25 games the Under was +7 units at 14-7-4 (I called the 4 games within 1 point of the consensus line a push as their were numbers both even and on other side).
I've heard about the Christmas NBA thing.

Where does one get those public NFL numbers? It looks like those 3 75%+ games are going 1-2 today, but that's obviously a SSS.

I'm not sure if this goes back any further than this year, but you could have made a ton of money this season if you only bet the 2nd half under in games that scored 30+ in the first half. It's been very profitable for me recently. Just today, this approach was 2-0 in the 10am games. The larger the point deficit in the first half, the more likely this strategy is to hit (which kinda makes sense since one team is having trouble scoring, and the team in the lead starts playing more conservatively).
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
25,511
I've heard about the Christmas NBA thing.

Where does one get those public NFL numbers? It looks like those 3 75%+ games are going 1-2 today, but that's obviously a SSS.
10 years ago fading those public heavy favorites were consistently over 65% year in and year out some years in the low 70's which is insane. They are still 60+% now though. Very large sample going back decades.

There are several out there I've been told that www.sportsinsight.com (under NFL betting trends) is the most reliable as they use the most number of sources. They list the trends for all sports however NFL is the one that has the large edge.
 
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djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Los Angeles, CA
10 years ago fading those public heavy favorites were consistently over 65% year in and year out some years in the low 70's which is insane. They are still 60+% now though. Very large sample going back decades.

There are several out there I've been told that www.sportsinsight.com (under NFL betting trends) is the most reliable as they use the most number of sources. They list the trends for all sports however NFL is the one that has the large edge.
With Heritage's low vig of -103 to -105, a 60% win percentage is pretty damn good. I'll have to look into this. Thanks.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
This morning, BetOnline already had the Pittsburgh / Kansas City (-1) line up. I guess they don't have much faith in Miami pulling off an upset. LOL

They also had Pats / Texans (-13.5).
 
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BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
43,169
Final game in 3 team teaser had Giants +14.5. The lesson, as always, is that the Giants will always find a way to screw me.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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Jan 10, 2001
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I like the dogs and the overs today. I also did a fun Calcutta with my friends and got the pack for $48 out of a $528 total pool. Went like this:


Seattle Seahawks @ $24
Atlanta Falcons @ $120
Green Bay Packers @ $48
New England Patriots @ $168
Pittsburgh Steelers @ $36
Houston Texans @ $12
Dallas Cowboys @ $96
Kansas City Chiefs @ $24
Total Pot: $528

I thought Pitt, Seattle and GB were the good values there. It was blind bidding, really fun.
 

edmunddantes

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Jul 28, 2015
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Cali
Only caught part of it on Bay Area radio today, but sounds like Vegas got murdered this week to go along with last week.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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@Papelbon's Poutine didn't your $50 parlay hit? What's that come to now?

Love the Pats and the Over for next Sunday. Probably will tease them, and just take the Pats outright.
I will bet you as much as you want that not only will the Patriots not win next Sunday, but that they will not score enough points to hit the over.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
55,056
This Sunday = 6 days, Next Sunday = 13 days. English motherfucker, do you speak it. Bet accepted for 20 gazillion dollars. You have my paypal No backsies.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
Lifetime Member
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This Sunday = 6 days, Next Sunday = 13 days. English motherfucker, do you speak it. Bet accepted for 20 gazillion dollars. You have my paypal No backsies.
No fucking way!! Next Sunday means "The NEXT Sunday" which is in 6 days!!! "This Sunday" is similar to "bi weekly" in that it can have multiple meanings, INCLUDING yesterday.

You owe me 20 gazillion dollars, and don't pull any fancy lawyer tricks!!!
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
55,056
No fucking way!! Next Sunday means "The NEXT Sunday" which is in 6 days!!! "This Sunday" is similar to "bi weekly" in that it can have multiple meanings, INCLUDING yesterday.

You owe me 20 gazillion dollars, and don't pull any fancy lawyer tricks!!!
I'm scheduled to bang your mom this Sunday (in 6 days) and next Sunday (in 13 days). In other words, I'm banging her biweekly.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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I like two goofy bets: combined @POTUS/@realDonaldTrump tweets during super bowl sunday (over 7.5) and Lady Gaga will not have 100% blond hair for her first song (+225).

I like the under on Mitchell's longest reception (16.5 yards) and over for Hogan (22.5).
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
I like two goofy bets: combined @POTUS/@realDonaldTrump tweets during super bowl sunday (over 7.5) and Lady Gaga will not have 100% blond hair for her first song (+225).

I like the under on Mitchell's longest reception (16.5 yards) and over for Hogan (22.5).
Okay, if we're doing the goofy odds, here's what I've picked so far:
  • How Long Will it Take Luke Bryan to Sing the US National Anthem? (From his first to last note) - Over 2 minutes 7.5 seconds (even odds)
  • How Many Times will "Deflategate" be Said During the Broadcast? (from kickoff to final whistle, no halftime) - Under 2.5 (-140)
  • Will Joe Buck or Troy Aikman mention the #SB51 odds during the broadcast? - No (-125)
  • IF the Patriots win will Brady, Belichick or Kraft be seen shaking Roger Goodell's hand on TV - No (+135)
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
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Nov 4, 2007
55,056
I took the No, on the handshake too, but the over (1.5) on the DFG mentions. What's the limit on the Lady Gaga bet?
 

djbayko

Member
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Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
I took the No, on the handshake too, but the over (1.5) on the DFG mentions. What's the limit on the Lady Gaga bet?
I didn't commit, but 5Dimes was going to allow me to put $100 on it to win $185. That's all I could try since the rest of my balance on that site is tied up in bets.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,892
Los Angeles, CA
Lemme know. I may have a way to find out.
They don't usually publish limits on the weird props. You have to just try it until you hit a limit. But the question is on a few different sites, so you could exceed limits by betting it multiple times as well.

Some sites offer blonde / non-blonde while others offer choices (e.g. blonde, pink, purple...or any other color).

If you find out I'll start making deposits :)
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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Same. I asked my gay friends who don't gamble and don't know sports and they were all like "oh there's value there"
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
55,056
Same. I asked my gay friends who don't gamble and don't know sports and they were all like "oh there's value there"
Good point. Don't know how my friend can innocuously text to ask her hair color. Cat's probably out of the bag at this point. I put in an ask anyways, though.