2016 NFL Gambling Thread

shawnrbu

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SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
34,861
The Land of Fist Pumps
Do we like anything tonight?

I am tempted to tease the Over and Bucs (Get it to 45 and +10.5 respectively). Also thinking about Austin Hooper over 39.5 yards receiving.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,048
Got a fun 4-team teaser going. Pays out 10x. Lions/Vikes, eagles/giants, panthers/rams, panthers/Rams over:

Date
Nov 5, 2016
Time
11:17 AM
Placed by
Web
Risk$400.00
To Win
$4,040.17
4 Team Parlay #699650009

Football - NFL - Point Spread

Detroit Lions 6.0 (-110) Nov 6, 2016 2:00

Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-140) Nov 6, 2016 2:00 PM

Carolina Panthers -3.0 (-115) Nov 6, 2016 5:05 PM

Over 44.0 (-115) Nov 6, 2016 5:05 PM
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,048
Got a fun 4-team teaser going. Pays out 10x. Lions/Vikes, eagles/giants, panthers/rams, panthers/Rams over:

Date
Nov 5, 2016
Time
11:17 AM
Placed by
Web
Risk$400.00
To Win
$4,040.17
4 Team Parlay #699650009

Football - NFL - Point Spread

Detroit Lions 6.0 (-110) Nov 6, 2016 2:00

Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-140) Nov 6, 2016 2:00 PM

Carolina Panthers -3.0 (-115) Nov 6, 2016 5:05 PM

Over 44.0 (-115) Nov 6, 2016 5:05 PM
Unreal philly...

Go for it in the red zone twice on 4th down, but down 8 with 4 min left? Kick a FG from the 30 on 4th and and 9. Wtf is that coaching staff doing?

Way to lose by 5, fucktards.
 
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Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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The Yay Area
I like Atlanta to win, Houston to win, Denver to win, and I have a couple goofy teases: 1) Denver +9 and under 56.5 with Houston/Jax under 48.5, and 2) Atlanta over 43.5, Dallas under 57, GB under 55.5, Miami over 43.5.
 

Schnerres

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Apr 28, 2009
1,541
Germany
Won my combo bet this week by incredibly slim margin :)
Jags@Lions - Lions win
Bears@Giants - Giants win
Cards@Vikings - no OT
Steelers@Browns - Steelers win
Patriots@49ers - Pats-11 win
Eagles@Seahawks - less than 42.5 points

Total quota of 8.54, was probably the highest I ever had, lol...if I only set more money..

-->Lions turned it around with about 10mins to play
-->Giants were tied with less than 10mins to play
-->Patriots led by +3 going into the 4th quarter
-->Eagles/Seahawks score 41 points. Hauschka missed a 44y FG in 4th quarter and a PAT in 1st quarter was blocked.

Pretty lucky...good week :)
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
9,870
Just need Oak to win to hit my 6 team teaser this week. $100 pays $500.
PIT -2.5
NE -6.5
NYG -1
BAL/DAL under 52
KC/TB under 51
Oak Pick

Normally I'd hedge with HOU but really like OAK tonight so think I'll let it ride.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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The Yay Area
I don't have a good feeling one way or the other tonight, which makes me want to grab the points. Anyone have a strong opinion?
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
53,818
Meh, I just teased the Raiders and the under even though I always lose when I bwt the under and don't enjoy games where I've bet it because then you're rooting against scoring and can't relax until the end of the game, but whatever, I can't imagine Houston contributes enough offense to get this over 52.5 points.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
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Jan 10, 2001
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The Yay Area
Goddammit, I meant to go along with that, and accidentally teased the over down. Because I'm a *fucking dumbass*. Oh well. Maybe we can middle it and both win.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
9,870
Thanks Zebras.
Pretty solid screw job though I think it was sheer incompetence because they did gift HOU a TD on the terrible PI call in the endzone when the WR gave up on the route and the ball was 20' past him.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,143
Los Angeles, CA
Hey folks. I recently started dabbling in a little sports betting for fun. Is this the only thread on SoSH where it's being discussed - NFL only? I didn't see anything else, besides the occasional comment in the MMA and boxing threads.

Also, I saw on Page 1 people talking briefly about the sportsbooks they used. I'm already signed up with 5dimes but am looking for a second so that I can shop odds a bit or place bets when one sportsbook might have a particular game or line closed. I know a few of you have used Bovada in the past, but I've ruled that one out. It seems like it's odds are consistently worse than 5dimes - in some sports, much worse. And I don't like the restrictions it places on parlays. On the other hand, BetOnline looks promising. Any recommendations?
 
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Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,048
Had two teasers for Turkey day games. Just need Pitt to win, and/or hit the over:

Minnesota Vikings 13.0
Dallas Cowboys 3.0
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.0

Teased 10.0 points

And

Minnesota Vikings 8.0
Washington Redskins 13.5
Indy/Pitt Over 42.0

Teased 6.5 points
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,870
Today was a good day to get fat.

Teased
MN DET under 48.5
PIT -3.5
100 win 90.90

Tease
MN +16
DAL +6
WAS/DAL Under 65.5
PIT + 3.5
$200 wins 166

MIN +9
DAL -1.5
$200 win 181
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,048
Did you forget about Luck too?
I did.

Dumb.

They still should have hit the over that I Teased to 42. 2 goal line stops, missed FGs, and Pitt offense sputtering in the 2nd half? I went to bed at halftime with the game 21-7. Only 7 more points all game? Fuck off.
 
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southshoresoxfan

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Jul 15, 2005
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Canton MA
Under 45 in the Saints Rams game is stealing. saints offense struggles vs good d and their d is peaking vs a bad qb/offense. Dont see that game getting past 20-10 ish score
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
9,870
Saints haven't held anyone under 20 since week 2. Gurley could finally have a decent game and no one stops Brees in the dome. They have only gone under 45 2X all season with one push. I think the O/U are set pretty tough this week. A lot more value in teasing some of the 6-71/2 games down IMO.

This is the first day I'm not touching any O/U.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
21,143
Los Angeles, CA
Okay, I've had it with Bovada. Their juice is ridiculously high compared to the competition, and they wait far too long after opening to post a lot of their games. Why unnecessarily risk an additional 5-15% on every bet? It's insane.

I finally met the rollover requirements to unlock all of my bonus cash for withdrawal, so I'm pulling out. Based on my research, I'm going to either BetOnline or Heritage to complement my 5Dimes account.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,035
Dallas
Last year I was in charge of sports investments (is there anything more bullshit than calling it that?) for my former bosses. We originally started betting on spreads, over/unders, and team related bets. We used 5dimes and a privately run online casino backed by investors in DFW. We were running at even money or losing slightly with our team bets. In mid-October and early November we changed our strategy to exclusively making player prop bets. We finished the season up 42.7%. I changed jobs over the summer and have been too busy to gamble this year but finally have found some free time on my hands. I still think player prop bets are the way to go. I feel like team based bets have been figured out by the powers that be but prop bets are much better. For example last year when Aiken became the default #1 WR for BAL you could find prop bets with his receptions and yards that were so low he could easily clear them. For fantasy stars many times their over/under for stats are so high that you can confidently take the under. I think keeping up your spreadsheet for players is more difficult and requires more effort but going forward (later this week) I will look at the prop bets and point some out I think are favorable. I no longer have access to the DFW casino but I will use 5dimes.
 

RidetheSeal

Member
SoSH Member
Okay, I've had it with Bovada. Their juice is ridiculously high compared to the competition, and they wait far too long after opening to post a lot of their games. Why unnecessarily risk an additional 5-15% on every bet? It's insane.

I finally met the rollover requirements to unlock all of my bonus cash for withdrawal, so I'm pulling out. Based on my research, I'm going to either BetOnline or Heritage to complement my 5Dimes account.
FWIW I left my old sportsbook before football season and signed up with BetOnline and so far it's been great. Granted I haven't withdrawn any money yet so I haven't gone through that process but there lines always seem to be very competitive and I like the navigation on their website. I also received 2 free $25 plays when signing up and was able to use them immediately.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
53,818
Last year I was in charge of sports investments (is there anything more bullshit than calling it that?) for my former bosses. We originally started betting on spreads, over/unders, and team related bets. We used 5dimes and a privately run online casino backed by investors in DFW. We were running at even money or losing slightly with our team bets. In mid-October and early November we changed our strategy to exclusively making player prop bets. We finished the season up 42.7%. I changed jobs over the summer and have been too busy to gamble this year but finally have found some free time on my hands. I still think player prop bets are the way to go. I feel like team based bets have been figured out by the powers that be but prop bets are much better. For example last year when Aiken became the default #1 WR for BAL you could find prop bets with his receptions and yards that were so low he could easily clear them. For fantasy stars many times their over/under for stats are so high that you can confidently take the under. I think keeping up your spreadsheet for players is more difficult and requires more effort but going forward (later this week) I will look at the prop bets and point some out I think are favorable. I no longer have access to the DFW casino but I will use 5dimes.
Hi. We're still friends, right?
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Last year I was in charge of sports investments (is there anything more bullshit than calling it that?) for my former bosses. We originally started betting on spreads, over/unders, and team related bets. We used 5dimes and a privately run online casino backed by investors in DFW. We were running at even money or losing slightly with our team bets. In mid-October and early November we changed our strategy to exclusively making player prop bets. We finished the season up 42.7%. I changed jobs over the summer and have been too busy to gamble this year but finally have found some free time on my hands. I still think player prop bets are the way to go. I feel like team based bets have been figured out by the powers that be but prop bets are much better. For example last year when Aiken became the default #1 WR for BAL you could find prop bets with his receptions and yards that were so low he could easily clear them. For fantasy stars many times their over/under for stats are so high that you can confidently take the under. I think keeping up your spreadsheet for players is more difficult and requires more effort but going forward (later this week) I will look at the prop bets and point some out I think are favorable. I no longer have access to the DFW casino but I will use 5dimes.
How did you get volume? Those lines usually open soft but move to like -140 juice or whatever pretty quickly after open and the limits are pretty low.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,143
Los Angeles, CA
FWIW I left my old sportsbook before football season and signed up with BetOnline and so far it's been great. Granted I haven't withdrawn any money yet so I haven't gone through that process but there lines always seem to be very competitive and I like the navigation on their website. I also received 2 free $25 plays when signing up and was able to use them immediately.
Thanks. BetOnline was actually going to be my go to until I recently learned about Heritage. It looks like Heritage is much more bettor friendly in terms of money matters - juice, odds on parlays, etc. I like BetOnline's navigation a lot, and I'm signing up with Heritage today to compare.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
21,143
Los Angeles, CA
Last year I was in charge of sports investments (is there anything more bullshit than calling it that?) for my former bosses. We originally started betting on spreads, over/unders, and team related bets. We used 5dimes and a privately run online casino backed by investors in DFW. We were running at even money or losing slightly with our team bets. In mid-October and early November we changed our strategy to exclusively making player prop bets. We finished the season up 42.7%. I changed jobs over the summer and have been too busy to gamble this year but finally have found some free time on my hands. I still think player prop bets are the way to go. I feel like team based bets have been figured out by the powers that be but prop bets are much better. For example last year when Aiken became the default #1 WR for BAL you could find prop bets with his receptions and yards that were so low he could easily clear them. For fantasy stars many times their over/under for stats are so high that you can confidently take the under. I think keeping up your spreadsheet for players is more difficult and requires more effort but going forward (later this week) I will look at the prop bets and point some out I think are favorable. I no longer have access to the DFW casino but I will use 5dimes.
I'm intrigued.

I love the idea that there are Moneyball-like market inefficiencies out there, even today. I was just reading about the famous NBA bettor, Bob Voulgaris, and his run of success taking advantage of how sportsbooks set halftime lines by basically just dividing the full game stats in half. The fact that behavior this lazy was industry wide practice as recently as 2004 is mind boggling. I mean, anyone who's watched the end of, like, 3 NBA games knows that there's distinct change in pace. It really makes you think that there must be other golden opportunities hiding somewhere.
 
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