2016 NFL Coaching Carousel

mauf

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The Saints are a poor choice to me - they look like a trap- their one real valuable asset is Cooks and Thomas (who both put up 1100yd receiving seasons at 23), but I'm not sure how good either one of them actually is - the combination of Brees, and a usually terrible defense means the Saints tend to put up a ton of yards. They look like the sort of team that when Brees retires, they'll be 4-10, and the coach will get fired a year later.

Indy is interesting though - in that they've got a youngish quarterback who may be elite - but like NO they don't have a ton of talent otherwise. If you can get the sort of coach who can turn a defense from terrible to average with scheme, they'd quickly be a good team, and it would take a ton of pressure off of Luck (who is basically willing them to 6-8 wins a year) - which would probably improve his overall performance.
I'll admit I thought Brees was a year or two younger than he actually is. Without him, the Saints' job is nothing special -- though at least you'd have the mandate (and presumably patience) to do a total rebuild.
 

luckiestman

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While the Packers seem to value consistency, I think that is fast approaching. McCarthy had excuses this year with the injuries, but if they underachieve next year I could see them moving on. And of course that would become a highly desirable situation for McDaniels, Patricia, and the rest of next year's coaching candidates.
I don't particularly like McCarthy and he takes a lot of flack, but do you think he underperforms his roster? I don't know how much he has to do with Roster construction. He made the top 4 with Rodgers and not much else.
 

tims4wins

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I don't particularly like McCarthy and he takes a lot of flack, but do you think he underperforms his roster? I don't know how much he has to do with Roster construction. He made the top 4 with Rodgers and not much else.
I think he is somewhere in the middle of the pack to the bottom third of coaches. I don't think he makes the Packers demonstrably worse, but he doesn't make them much better, either. Not a very good game day coach.

But given all that, I agree it may be more of a roster construction issue.

Edit: my first post wasn't meant to suggest that they SHOULD fire him; just that I could see it happening unless they have a great year. They could do better, they could do worse. But given the potential availability of Patricia and McDaniels next year, it will be interesting to see if some of these franchises with OK coaches but are well set up decide to move on in hopes of hiring McD or Matty P
 

luckiestman

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These are all good points. Also, Mangini failed twice and won't likely be a HC again. Similarly, Rex likely won't be a HC again.

I thought Mangini was good with the Jets and don't think the Browns should have fired him. They did that weird thing where they brought in the Walrus.

He probably won't get another job though.
 

coremiller

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While the Packers seem to value consistency, I think that is fast approaching. McCarthy had excuses this year with the injuries, but if they underachieve next year I could see them moving on. And of course that would become a highly desirable situation for McDaniels, Patricia, and the rest of next year's coaching candidates.
The Packers won their division and made the NFCCG while completely banged up. McCarthy has made the playoffs 8 years in a row and 9/11 years and has gone to four NFCCGs. There's no way McCarthy's job should be on the line.
 

coremiller

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It's still a silly argument. McCarthy's record speaks for itself. The idea that if you have a great QB any schlub can coach them to a championship is flat-out false. If you think McCarthy has underperformed, your expectations are way too high. Even with a great coach and QB, winning the Super Bowl is really hard! I mean, in the 9 seasons from 2005-2013 the Patriots made the playoffs 8/9 times, went to five conference championship games, and won zero super bowls despite having the best QB/coach tandem in league, while losing five playoff games as a favorite. You need a good deal of luck to win multiple championships.

McCarthy has blown some key games with dumb in-game tactical decisions (the 2014 NFCCG most prominently) but much more important is that he keeps putting his team in championship games in the first place.
 

tims4wins

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He is the NFC equivalent of Mike Tomlin. He's a fine coach. I just wonder if, should the Packers have another 10-6 type year and an early exit or miss the playoffs, they will move on. I could see it happening.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The Packers' drafting has also been fairly poor the last few years. McCarthy isn't a great coach, but he's done a good job of winning games out of Rodgers and not that much else. It's a pretty average roster.
 

Saints Rest

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First shot at 2018 coaching opportunities. I'll assume all 2017 first-year coaches get one more shot in 2018, unless something goes horribly wrong):

Most Likely Openings (coaches who have already had a couple bad years, on teams with challenging futures)
Jets
Colts
Saints

Definitely in Play (May need to make playoffs in 2017)
Bengals
Cardinals
Eagles
Browns -- though I think improving to 6-7 wins gets Hue another shot

Maybe (volatile situations)
Ravens -- sounds like there are cracks in management.
Cowboys -- One and done in playoffs won't cut it next year, I'd imagine
Texans -- only because of rumors of GM/HC discord
Redskins -- Snyder susceptible to bright shiny objects
Jaguars -- one rookie coach who doesn't feel guaranteed a shot at year two
I'll throw out my long-shot opening: Pittsburgh. The Antonio Brown situation did not reflect well on Tomlin -- I'm not talking about what MT said, but the fact that the culture there allowed AB to think that that was OK. Couple that with rumors (PILE OF SALT ALERT: Source was Peter King) that Big Ben was not happy with MT and the fact that the Steelers did not look good by seeming to follow once again the recipe for destruction at the hands of the Patriots and things could be bad next year. Imagine if Ben does retire, or simply chooses next year to do the typical mid-30s decline, AB becomes an ongoing distraction, the defense doesn't improve (have we seen the last of James Harrison?), and the Steelers go something like 7-9. That could spell the end of Tomlin.
 

tims4wins

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A couple others that wouldn't shock me: Chicago and Tennessee. Both need to exhibit progress IMO or their coaches will be canned.
 

coremiller

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I'll throw out my long-shot opening: Pittsburgh. The Antonio Brown situation did not reflect well on Tomlin -- I'm not talking about what MT said, but the fact that the culture there allowed AB to think that that was OK. Couple that with rumors (PILE OF SALT ALERT: Source was Peter King) that Big Ben was not happy with MT and the fact that the Steelers did not look good by seeming to follow once again the recipe for destruction at the hands of the Patriots and things could be bad next year. Imagine if Ben does retire, or simply chooses next year to do the typical mid-30s decline, AB becomes an ongoing distraction, the defense doesn't improve (have we seen the last of James Harrison?), and the Steelers go something like 7-9. That could spell the end of Tomlin.
The Rooneys never fire coaches. They've had three coaches in 50 years. Unless Tomlin goes 4-12 three years in a row or gets embroiled in a scandal, his job is safe.
 

joe dokes

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Well, yeah, but they haven't had any adversity to speak of, with just a pair of back to back loss years since Noll got it all turned around back in 1972. Nothing lasts forever.
Cowher missed the playoffs 3 years in a row right in the middle of his time there with no ramifications. Tomlin would have to do much worse than he's doing for it even to be a possibility.
 

mauf

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A couple others that wouldn't shock me: Chicago and Tennessee. Both need to exhibit progress IMO or their coaches will be canned.
Completely agree on Chicago. Three consecutive years with no playoffs usually gets the coach fired, and Fox is headed into Year 3.

Mularkey has only one full season under his belt, and the Titans took a big step forward, so I think the wheels would have to come off in a big way for him to be in jeopardy this time next year.


The Rooneys never fire coaches. They've had three coaches in 50 years. Unless Tomlin goes 4-12 three years in a row or gets embroiled in a scandal, his job is safe.
This is an overstatement -- a lot of the continuity is because they haven't had cause to make changes -- but the Rooneys certainly aren't going to fire a guy who won a playoff game just because they finish behind the Ravens or Bengals. Unless there are clear signs that he has lost the locker room, Tomlin has two years to right the ship.
 

Morning Woodhead

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Next year the Pats could lose McDaniels and Matty P to Tennessee and Detroit. Former Pats GM's with coaches neither of them hired.
 

Hoya81

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SF is hiring Hall-of-Fame candidate and FOX analyst John Lynch as GM, sources tell ESPN. Lynch back to Bay Area, where he went to Stanford.
49ers are giving John Lynch an almost unprecedented six-year deal to become their GM, per sources.
 

Ed Hillel

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LOL, he got a six-year deal!
And it gets better!
The idea to hire Lynch was his own. He personally called Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan about a week ago, and volunteered for the job.

Shanahan, considered the favorite to be named the Niners' next head coach, thought about Lynch, and the more he thought about it, the more he felt Lynch was a fit for the job. Lynch played for Shanahan's father, Mike, in Denver.
 
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Devizier

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Big Ben was not happy with MT and the fact that the Steelers did not look good...
Roethlisberger can't really complain. Tomlin (and Cowher before him) covered his ass when he was getting himself into all sorts of trouble in the offseasons during his early career.

It's also worth mentioning that Roethlisberger's cap number was $24 million this year, one of the highest in the NFL.
 

Al Zarilla

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Sampling of posts on 49erswebzone.com about the SF John Lynch hire:

WTF

Hope he's not another Matt Millen.

Elway has worked out well with no experience.

But why not hire Steve Young?

Rather they'd kept Baalke.

I'm finding another team.
 

coremiller

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It's possible Lynch could work out well, but I don't expect it to. It sounds like they had no other options because everyone else either turned them down or was rejected by Shanahan.

I also don't understand giving Lynch six years. It's Shanahan who has the leverage, not Lynch.

Just par for the course for the Yorks though.
 

Saints Rest

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It's possible Lynch could work out well, but I don't expect it to. It sounds like they had no other options because everyone else either turned them down or was rejected by Shanahan.

I also don't understand giving Lynch six years. It's Shanahan who has the leverage, not Lynch.

Just par for the course for the Yorks though.
But maybe he's cuttable after the second year with minimal cap hit. We just won't know until we see the details.
</sarcasm>
 

Super Nomario

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It's possible Lynch could work out well, but I don't expect it to. It sounds like they had no other options because everyone else either turned them down or was rejected by Shanahan.

I also don't understand giving Lynch six years. It's Shanahan who has the leverage, not Lynch.

Just par for the course for the Yorks though.
The "tying at the hip" contracts is already a sign that York has learned little. You know how you can force Shanahan and Lynch to work together? Make it very clear who is in charge and who has final say. He's just inviting more power jockeying this way.
 

dcmissle

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It'd be utterly hilarious if Shanahan now decided he didn't want the Niners job after all.
You have to come to terms with LaFleur. He was highly regarded in these parts. You're hopin' against hope at this point.

BTW -- Shanahan was derided here as emblematic of nepotism, when in fact he was anything but that. (No one has any clue one way or another whether Lynch will be a good GM or not).
 

PedroKsBambino

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The "tying at the hip" contracts is already a sign that York has learned little. You know how you can force Shanahan and Lynch to work together? Make it very clear who is in charge and who has final say. He's just inviting more power jockeying this way.
Well, sort of. I think the reality is that Paraag Marathe is in charge and they all know it, right? That's the underlying franchise problem and while it is possible they actually gave Shanahan true control I suspect not (and also imagine that's why McDaniels walked)
 
You have to come to terms with LaFleur. He was highly regarded in these parts. You're hopin' against hope at this point.

BTW -- Shanahan was derided here as emblematic of nepotism, when in fact he was anything but that. (No one has any clue one way or another whether Lynch will be a good GM or not).
Oh, I'm resigned to Shanahan leaving, and there are stories that he might try to take LaFleur with him to be his OC in San Francisco. But independent of my Falcons leanings, it would be pretty hilarious if York or Marathe were to say something stupid in the next seven days and give Shanahan cold feet, leaving the Niners with a new GM on a six-year contract but without the coach that wanted him there.
 

Sox and Rocks

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You have to come to terms with LaFleur. He was highly regarded in these parts. You're hopin' against hope at this point.

BTW -- Shanahan was derided here as emblematic of nepotism, when in fact he was anything but that. (No one has any clue one way or another whether Lynch will be a good GM or not).
Do we know this for sure? Clearly he's done a good job this year with an Atlanta office loaded with talent, but until recently his record as OC was certainly suspect.

I would be nervous if I were a niner fan. A first time head coach and a first time GM with no previous experience. It could work out, sure, but it could also be a spectacular disaster, and both being given six year deals is absurd.
 

dcmissle

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Do we know this for sure? Clearly he's done a good job this year with an Atlanta office loaded with talent, but until recently his record as OC was certainly suspect.

I would be nervous if I were a niner fan. A first time head coach and a first time GM with no previous experience. It could work out, sure, but it could also be a spectacular disaster, and both be given six year deals is absurd.
Yup. Because along with his old man, he crafted an offense for RGIII that enabled him to excel as a rookie out of the box. Quite the achievement, considering that RGIII is lagging in so many areas of QB play.

He undoubtedly had problems with Ryan last year. He's guiding the number 1 offense this year.
 

jimbobim

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Do we know this for sure? Clearly he's done a good job this year with an Atlanta office loaded with talent, but until recently his record as OC was certainly suspect.

I would be nervous if I were a niner fan. A first time head coach and a first time GM with no previous experience. It could work out, sure, but it could also be a spectacular disaster, and both being given six year deals is absurd.


Even worse the HC was impressed because JL was the "most prepared of the TV guys". Seems to me all the real personnel people didn't want to be second banana to Shannahan in terms of control and thus Lynch was the guy especially when he offered.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Yup. Because along with his old man, he crafted an offense for RGIII that enabled him to excel as a rookie out of the box. Quite the achievement, considering that RGIII is lagging in so many areas of QB play.

He undoubtedly had problems with Ryan last year. He's guiding the number 1 offense this year.
You are much more confident in him than I am, though my biggest skepticism is with Lynch as GM. I think Shanarat Jr. needs a strong and experienced GM, and Lynch is not that guy. Maybe he'll be terrific, but I'd bet the under, whatever the under is.
 

H78

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Even worse the HC was impressed because JL was the "most prepared of the TV guys". Seems to me all the real personnel people didn't want to be second banana to Shannahan in terms of control and thus Lynch was the guy especially when he offered.
Honestly, when I read that quote, my first thought was "there's no way BB can't gameplan to beat this guy on Sunday."
 

Winger 03

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That he could get what he did out of RGIII who is so far from a competent QB was amazing. I never did get the hate for him around here - lots of guys in DC hire their kids - Schottenheimer, Gibbs, Spurrier etc.


Yup. Because along with his old man, he crafted an offense for RGIII that enabled him to excel as a rookie out of the box. Quite the achievement, considering that RGIII is lagging in so many areas of QB play.
 

Super Nomario

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That he could get what he did out of RGIII who is so far from a competent QB was amazing. I never did get the hate for him around here - lots of guys in DC hire their kids - Schottenheimer, Gibbs, Spurrier etc.
The whole NFL runs on nepotism. Both Belichick and Thomas Dimitroff, the architects of the two teams playing Sunday, are second-generation football minds.
 

dcmissle

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You are much more confident in him than I am, though my biggest skepticism is with Lynch as GM. I think Shanarat Jr. needs a strong and experienced GM, and Lynch is not that guy. Maybe he'll be terrific, but I'd bet the under, whatever the under is.
HC is a much different job that OC, so I have no idea how well Shanny will perform in the former role or Lynch as GM, which obviously is a striking development.

The obvious thing about both is that they know how to spot and use leverage, or are well advised.

I just would not assume the worst of either, just as I would not assume the best. Both seems smart enough. We'll see.
 

bakahump

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Be even more 49erish if Lynch now got into Yorks and Marathes ears and convinced them NOT to hire Shannahan and to Get Mcdaniels back on the hook after a dominating 41-17 Patriot win.
 

dcmissle

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The whole NFL runs on nepotism. Both Belichick and Thomas Dimitroff, the architects of the two teams playing Sunday, are second-generation football minds.
That's certainly how you get your head start. Yup, Sean McVay is only 30 -- but he has been coaching in the NFL for 8 years. Anyone mystified by this can google his blood lines.
 

joe dokes

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From MMQB:
The 49ers hired Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist John Lynch to be their general manager, shocking the football world, as the partner for likely new Niners coach Kyle Shanahan. Well, maybe one other word: risky. “Neither of those guys are afraid of failure, and I’m not either,” club CEO Jed York told me as the clock neared midnight Sunday.
We already know that York is not afraid to fail.
 

loshjott

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Been reading this thread about the Niners hiring John Lynch as GM and assuming he was some anonymous young executive I've never heard of. But he's actually the ex-player and TV analyst? Heck, it worked so well with Matt Millen in Detroit, why not??
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Been reading this thread about the Niners hiring John Lynch as GM and assuming he was some anonymous young executive I've never heard of. But he's actually the ex-player and TV analyst? Heck, it worked so well with Matt Millen in Detroit, why not??
There are instances of it working and instances of it not working. Elway and Newsome are examples of guys who have been pretty darned good GMs who were not all that experienced walking into the job (Newsome did a lot of work for the Browns and Ravens in various non-GM roles, but was considered a reach for the GM gig at the time).

Shanahan is connected out the ass to football people through his own and his dad's experiences, I think they will be able to attract talent. I am not sure that this is a great move, but I don't know how anyone can say that it is more likely to fail than succeed.
 

joe dokes

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There are instances of it working and instances of it not working. Elway and Newsome are examples of guys who have been pretty darned good GMs who were not all that experienced walking into the job (Newsome did a lot of work for the Browns and Ravens in various non-GM roles, but was considered a reach for the GM gig at the time).

I think you're being too kind to the Lynch hire.
Newsome had been in NFL front offices for 10 years before getting the GM gig. Whatever doubts there were related solely to the fact that he'd been a player, an unusual move at the time, or maybe more (unstated) to being the first black GM,
but not his experience. At least that's my memory. Even Elway at least ran a couple of fairly large businesses and a somewhat real (Arena) football team for 5 years or so. It's not the NFL, but the categories of things to deal with are probably similar. I can't think of anything like this . . . . except Matt Millen. Has Lynch done anything besides broadcasting?

I know BB loves him; and he's not the worst color guy on TV. But this has even worse dumpster fire written all over it.
 

Super Nomario

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I think you're being too kind to the Lynch hire.
Newsome had been in NFL front offices for 10 years before getting the GM gig. Whatever doubts there were related solely to the fact that he'd been a player, an unusual move at the time, or maybe more (unstated) to being the first black GM,
but not his experience. At least that's my memory. Even Elway at least ran a couple of fairly large businesses and a somewhat real (Arena) football team for 5 years or so. It's not the NFL, but the categories of things to deal with are probably similar. I can't think of anything like this . . . . except Matt Millen. Has Lynch done anything besides broadcasting?

I know BB loves him; and he's not the worst color guy on TV. But this has even worse dumpster fire written all over it.
All of this, and Elway also wasn't hired as GM right away; he had a GM with him for a season in Denver before he took over those duties.

Shanahan is connected out the ass to football people through his own and his dad's experiences, I think they will be able to attract talent. I am not sure that this is a great move, but I don't know how anyone can say that it is more likely to fail than succeed.
Oh, it's definitely more likely to fail than succeed. Most hires fail (I haven't looked at GMs specifically but only like 38% of HC hires have a winning record and around half never make the playoffs). And this is a bottom-five owner, a toxic environment, and a roster almost totally bereft of talent. It could work, sure, but it's got a decent chance of failing even if Lynch and Shanahan are the right guys.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I think you're being too kind to the Lynch hire.
Newsome had been in NFL front offices for 10 years before getting the GM gig. Whatever doubts there were related solely to the fact that he'd been a player, an unusual move at the time, or maybe more (unstated) to being the first black GM,
but not his experience. At least that's my memory. Even Elway at least ran a couple of fairly large businesses and a somewhat real (Arena) football team for 5 years or so. It's not the NFL, but the categories of things to deal with are probably similar. I can't think of anything like this . . . . except Matt Millen. Has Lynch done anything besides broadcasting?

I know BB loves him; and he's not the worst color guy on TV. But this has even worse dumpster fire written all over it.
I'm still not convinced that anyone has figured out what makes a good coach or a good GM. Pete Carroll was considered a mediocre coach in NE and NYJ. He has been nothing short of a genius at USC and Seattle both. Bill Belichick was considered a debacle in Cleveland (this is a recurring theme......) and...well, you know the rest of the story. It seems like the hot coaching prospects rarely pan out (Chip Kelly, Gus Bradley, Crennell, Weis, NFL Spurrier, Saban, the list goes on and on) and the same for GMs.

Lynch went to Stanford and was considered a smart football player and a team leader on two separate teams. I honestly don't know if that will translate into success, but so many people fail at these jobs I am not sure that he could do much worse than a dart board pick. If he and Shanahan can see eye to eye then that is 40% of the job solved. I don't think you can say with any kind of confidence that this is looking either dumpster fire or lob city.