2016 NBA Draft

HomeRunBaker

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Philly says no.

They didn't tank to draft a 22 year old point guard, and they've consistently taken the highest upside guy available to them since Hinkie took over. If Simmons is there for them, they take Simmons.
It's pretty clear Hinkie isn't calling the shots anymore which is why I expect the Sixers to better balance their roster. Those Suns team of years ago under Colangelo were very backcourt heavy. He's always valued this position.

Better question.....what would you require from Boston for this to make sense because we could offer a ton of sweets.
 
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Bob420

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They take Ingram at 2. If they get the 1 and want to balance their roster, they trade with the team at 2 to take Ingram and some sweets. Celtics dont have anything that helps the sixers unless it is #1 or #2 pick that Celts are looking to move.
 

bowiac

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As a rule of thumb, if your trade idea involves "plus sweeteners", then the team getting them is the one that says "no."
 

nighthob

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Philly says no.

They didn't tank to draft a 22 year old point guard, and they've consistently taken the highest upside guy available to them since Hinkie took over. If Simmons is there for them, they take Simmons.
Not that I disagree with you in theory, but Hinkie has been Chris Wallaced. Colangelo is running the Sixers these days.
 

HomeRunBaker

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As a rule of thumb, if your trade idea involves "plus sweeteners", then the team getting them is the one that says "no."
What if the sweetener is next seasons Nets pick as well? I mean the Sixers are clearly doing something to alleviate the frontcourt logjam this summer and everyone is assuming they will ADD to it by drafting a 4.

That is why I threw out the question of what would it take. Colangelo reportedly was in deep discussions with Atlanta at the deadline for one of their PGs and he's shown a penchant to valuing the position in Phoenix and even this year in bringing Ish Smith back immediately after he was hired.

So what would a Philly fan want from Boston for (assuming) the #1. It can't be untradeable with all of our lottery picks and guards on our roster. We can fill so many Sixer needs from what I see.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not that I disagree with you in theory, but Hinkie has been Chris Wallaced. Colangelo is running the Sixers these days.
It's really amazing that this isn't known by everyone at this point. The Sixers had one representative at the convention with all the other GM's during the all star break.....Colangelo.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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It's pretty clear Hinkie isn't calling the shots anymore which is why I expect the Sixers to better balance their roster. Those Suns team of years ago under Colangelo were very backcourt heavy. He's always valued this position.

Better question.....what would you require from Boston for this to make sense because we could offer a ton of sweets.
Hinkie, Colangelo. Doesn't change the fact that Avery Bradley isn't convincing a team that just sold its fan base on three years to pass on Simmons or Ingram.
 

bowiac

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What if the sweetener is next seasons Nets pick as well? I mean the Sixers are clearly doing something to alleviate the frontcourt logjam this summer and everyone is assuming they will ADD to it by drafting a 4.
Okay, sure, that's a hell of a sweetener. Usually that's not how people use the term sweeteners.

If it's next year's Nets pick, then I think the Celtics say no.
 

Bob420

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Sixers have the multiple later picks and future picks that the Celtics are looking to consolidate. I dont think the Celtics really have anything the Sixers would want.

As a Sixers fan, I would want nothing to do with anything the Celtics offered. Unless, like I said, they were looking to move from #2 to #1
 

Montana Fan

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I am a Sixers fan and obviously have a bias but I dont think there is any way the Sixers trade #1 or #2 pick for the #3 or lower and Bradley/sweeteners. If the Sixers are #3 or #4, I could see a deal being made.
Bob, they'd get the C's pick too. C's would be moving up a couple of spots for AB and sweeteners.
 

bowiac

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Bob, they'd get the C's pick too. C's would be moving up a couple of spots for AB and sweeteners.
He's proposing the C's pick, and the Nets pick next year in fact. Obviously it all depends on talent evaluations, but if the Sixers are in line with conventional wisdom that there are no true game-changers in this draft, I think they'd do that.
 

Bob420

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Yes. I know that they would get the C's pick but honestly, I think pretty much everyone believes the drop off after Simmons and Ingram is pretty big. Avery Bradley, the 4 or 5 pick(Dunn) and future first wouldn't do it for me. Even if the Celts offered the Nets pick next year. Next years draft has better PG prospects and the Sixers will have their pick and most likely the Lakers if it doesn't convey this year.I dont think this is the draft to trade down unless you were at 2 and really liked Bender but the Sixers arent taking another Euro stash.

Ingram is a perfect fit for the Sixers and I think he is a better prospect than Simmons. I would take him #1 or trade Simmons to for #2 plus extra.

I would also much rather a trade for Schroeder or something similar.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's proposing the C's pick, and the Nets pick next year in fact. Obviously it all depends on talent evaluations, but if the Sixers are in line with conventional wisdom that there are no true game-changers in this draft, I think they'd do that.
Yeah I just think there is the basis of a deal in place and believe Philly is going to be making some big moves this summer while Ainge is also looking to do same.

Was curious to see what Celtics fans would give up (and for which player) and what Philly fans would want for the pick.
 

nighthob

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As a Sixers fan, I would want nothing to do with anything the Celtics offered. Unless, like I said, they were looking to move from #2 to #1
Does Noel come with that? Aside from that I think Boston just takes the BPA wherever they land.
 

Bob420

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I meant the Celtics looking to move from #2 to #1 but like you said, I think both take Simmons or Ingram and are happy
 

the moops

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[QUOTE="Bob420, post: 1614230, member: 2195"
As a Sixers fan, I would want nothing to do with anything the Celtics offered.[/QUOTE]
This seems like a bit of a preposterous stand to take.

Smart, Olynyk, 2016 #4 and 2017 Nets #1 next year wouldn't convince you to move 3 spots down this year?

Not that I am serious about that offer...
 

benhogan

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[QUOTE="Bob420, post: 1614230, member: 2195"
As a Sixers fan, I would want nothing to do with anything the Celtics offered.
This seems like a bit of a preposterous stand to take.

Smart, Olynyk, 2016 #4 and 2017 Nets #1 next year wouldn't convince you to move 3 spots down this year?



Celtics say NO to that...and Bradley, with his team friendly contract, isn't going either for a few spot upgrade.

Simmons or Ingram isn't changing a thing in Philly, let the Sixers rot in hell with the Nets for the next decade.

We'll be fine with three Top 5 picks over the next three drafts.
 

nighthob

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I meant the Celtics looking to move from #2 to #1 but like you said, I think both take Simmons or Ingram and are happy
Honestly I wouldn't really be interested in moving from four to one as I don't think the talent differential between guys like Dunn and Murray and Ingram are worth what would be demanded. If Boston were drafting first I would feel more comfortable trading down for that reason. Ingram could be Durant Lite, and so could be the one guy that separates from the pack in the long term. But there are no guarantees there.
 

nighthob

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Celtics say NO to that...and Bradley, with his team friendly contract, isn't going either for a few spot upgrade.
It's the team friendly deal that I think makes Bradley prime trade bait going forward. Especially for western conference teams with guards that can run their offense out of the 2 spot.
 

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Tankathon still has Dragan Bender going third, but he seems to be some years away still, and Jaylen Brown looks like a rich man's Jae Crowder, which would be a questionable upgrade for the Celtics. If the Celtics don't get 1 or 2, should they trade out of the draft?
 

nighthob

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I think they would trade out anyway for a star. I could also see them trading down for extra assets even if they landed #1 or #2 because they have the complementary parts to make them contenders now if they could find their star, and the assets could make a difference. For example, if the Warriors really did make a successful run at Durant, Klay Thompson becomes a little bit extraneous (demoting an all star in his early prime to three and D guy always causes bad feelings) and is probably a possibility because Boston has so many team friendly deals that would allow the Warriors to increase their depth around a new big two. But you would still need draft assets to make that work from the Warriors perspective.
 

Bob420

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In my mind the point of tanking is to get a potential difference maker in the draft. Not to trade the chance at one for a bunch of players to bring you back to the middle of the pack. Smart, Kelly O, the #4 pick and next years Nets is a haul for a lot of teams but I would be disappointed as a Sixers fan. The Nets pick next year is the onIy piece I would be interested in. I take my chances at a star at #1 or #2, bring in Saric, embiid and trade for a PG for next year.

They have their pick, the lakers pick, and the sac disaster swap rights next year.
 

bakahump

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But what have the Sixers been tanking for over the last 2-3 years? I find it fascinating that the consensus is"THIS is the year" their tanking pays off.

I know the Draft is a crap shoot but I find it amazing that with 3,3,11,15 and 16 over the last 5 years...and they are still "Tanking to build".


Edit:had my picks screwed up
 
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Bob420

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I dont think it is a "this is the year" situation. They havent hit the lottery yet. The goal of the tank has been to get elite player(s) in the draft and not trade that chance for more assets. If they finally get the chance to draft a player that they feel is elite and can build around, I dont think they trade that. It is possible that they dont feel Simmons or Ingram is that player, but if they do, I dont see them trading it.

The only reason it may seem as though this is the year is because if they get #1 or #2, add two other late firsts, possibly embiid, saric and Lakers pick, they are adding 6 1st round picks and 4 lottery. But if embiid remains hurt, saric stays and the Lakers pick is pushed out, my guess is that next year will only be a little better.

However, with Colangelo in charge, it does seem like he is not going to push anything out if possible. Maybe there is a trade to be had but I was only answering as a fan as to what I would like to see happen.
 

bowiac

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I dont think it is a "this is the year" situation. They havent hit the lottery yet. The goal of the tank has been to get elite player(s) in the draft and not trade that chance for more assets. If they finally get the chance to draft a player that they feel is elite and can build around, I dont think they trade that. It is possible that they dont feel Simmons or Ingram is that player, but if they do, I dont see them trading it.
I'm not in Hinkie's head, and I'm certainly nowhere near Colangelo's, but I would be surprised if they viewed things in such a binary sense. As in, ignoring any of the individual players' scouting reports, I doubt they view Simmons as "elite", but someone like Dunn as "not elite". It's more granular than that. I suspect it's more along the lines that they think there's a 50% chance of Simmons turning into an elite guy (about the hit rate for #1 overall), while Dunn is more like a 15% chance or something.

This has nothing to do with these individual players. If I had to guess, I'd say both players are worse than those odds. I just mean it would be weird to have such a binary view of things ahead of time.
 

Koufax

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know the Draft is a crap shoot but I find it amazing that with 3,3,11,15 and 16 over the last 5 years...and they are still "Tanking to build".
Don't forget Evan Turner, no.2 overall, 6 years ago.
 

ALiveH

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so is Ben Simmons no longer consensus #1? DraftExpress has him as #2 now behind Ingram. I like both of these players a lot, so it's a tough choice for me.

Cal / Hawaii should be a great game to watch with two potential Celtics picks on Cal (Jaylen Brown with the BKLN pick & Ivan Rabb with the DALL pick)
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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so is Ben Simmons no longer consensus #1? DraftExpress has him as #2 now behind Ingram. I like both of these players a lot, so it's a tough choice for me.

Cal / Hawaii should be a great game to watch with two potential Celtics picks on Cal (Jaylen Brown with the BKLN pick & Ivan Rabb with the DALL pick)
I think everyone is looking for a reason not to draft Simmons number one, and there are some legitimate concerns (particularly his shooting and lackluster defense). And when you look at the teams likely drafting early, Ingram is a better fit for most of the teams, particularly PHI and LA. But I don't know how much weight I'm putting into Simmons not having the drive or that coaches/teammates don't like him. I think everyone expected him to carry LSU to a great record and a tourney run and when it didn't happen, everyone put that on him, which isn't fair. They just weren't a very good team.

But lets get this Simmons stock falling train rolling. The C's aren't likely going to get a top 2 pick, so let him drop!
 

bowiac

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I do find it a bit troubling that his team got worse this year. He joined a 22 win team (+11.39 SRS), and they won 3 fewer games, and their SRS got 2 points worse. I don't watch much college ball outside of Michigan, but I don't think anyone regards Martin and Mickey as world beaters, so losing doesn't seem like it should have insurmountable. The optics of the team getting worse while adding the #1 overall pick aren't great.

I'd probably still take him #1, but I wouldn't be happy about it.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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LSU lost a lot of basketball games, but a lot of them were to good teams.

"Good" losses: Marquette, NC State, @Houston (in OT), Florida, @TexAM, vs OKLA, @South Carolina, @Kentucky, vs TexAM

"Bad" losses: @Charleston, Wake, Alabama, @Tennessee, @Arkansas

5 bad losses. And the Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas losses at the end of the year are when the wheels really feel off. If they won those games, they might be in the tourney.

But yeah, when you add the supposed best player in the country, you don't expect to get worse.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I do find it a bit troubling that his team got worse this year. He joined a 22 win team (+11.39 SRS), and they won 3 fewer games, and their SRS got 2 points worse. I don't watch much college ball outside of Michigan, but I don't think anyone regards Martin and Mickey as world beaters, so losing doesn't seem like it should have insurmountable. The optics of the team getting worse while adding the #1 overall pick aren't great.

I'd probably still take him #1, but I wouldn't be happy about it.
I disagree with the assumption that losing your starting 4 and 5 who are both in the NBA while being replaced by two freshman isn't devastating to your team. Throw in that your new starting 2 is a borderline D-1 player much less a SEC starter and you have a pretty terrible college basketball team. I'm not sure what more Simmons could have done with that group especially with the college rules that make life miserable for non-shooters.

The one big disappointment to me is Quarterman who failed to be the 1a. guy most nights with his skillset. It seems like there was a lot of "stuff" going on behind the scenes.
 

BigSoxFan

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Damian Jones from Vandy completely pisses me off. Has the tools to be an impact big but never brings it.
 

bbc23

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Damian Jones from Vandy completely pisses me off. Has the tools to be an impact big but never brings it.
He definitely stood out to me when going against Texas. Absolutely ate B12 DPOY Prince Ibeh up in late January. Showed some great ball skills and great touch around the rim. There's not many if any real bigs I saw this year that had his post skills. Think the game against WSU was more of an anomaly than anything.
 

BigSoxFan

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He definitely stood out to me when going against Texas. Absolutely ate B12 DPOY Prince Ibeh up in late January. Showed some great ball skills and great touch around the rim. There's not many if any real bigs I saw this year that had his post skills. Think the game against WSU was more of an anomaly than anything.
He wasn't exactly strong against Tenn or A+M either - only grabbing 2 rebounds in both contests. Would like to see him be more aggressive on offense because there are definitely some skills there. I'm sure he'll be under consideration for the Dallas pick or a trade up from the Celtics' pick.
 

ALiveH

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seems like a lot of the issues at LSU have to fall on the coaches. we've seen lots of college players made to look worse because of coaching dysfunction / suboptimal utilization (every kentucky center ever for example) - seems like a pretty big draft inefficiency. E.g., Bradley, Rondo & Smart all seemed to suffer from this as well in college.

Put Ingram on LSU and Simmons on Duke and their respective narratives could be very different.
 

ishmael

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seems like a lot of the issues at LSU have to fall on the coaches. we've seen lots of college players made to look worse because of coaching dysfunction / suboptimal utilization (every kentucky center ever for example) - seems like a pretty big draft inefficiency. E.g., Bradley, Rondo & Smart all seemed to suffer from this as well in college.

Put Ingram on LSU and Simmons on Duke and their respective narratives could be very different.
The 2007 Texas Longhorns (coached by Rick Barnes) who went from 1st to 3rd in the Big 12 also come to mind...
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think you guys are placing too much weight on one (or even two) players on a college team. The defensive schemes and advanced scouting are far advanced from two decades ago and with the zone defenses a go-to player isn't as likely to dominate a college game anymore.

You can be head and shoulders above anyone on the court in talent but when you're shadowed by two defenders in the halfcourt every time you get a touch you are now placing more pressure on your teammates to step up. When your teammates aren't good at college basketball you aren't going to maximize the talent of the star who is receiving extra attention. It's also draining and frustrating for the star player when his teammates aren't elevating their games up toward yours despite them having opportunities to succeed.
 

JakeRae

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seems like a lot of the issues at LSU have to fall on the coaches. we've seen lots of college players made to look worse because of coaching dysfunction / suboptimal utilization (every kentucky center ever for example) - seems like a pretty big draft inefficiency. E.g., Bradley, Rondo & Smart all seemed to suffer from this as well in college.

Put Ingram on LSU and Simmons on Duke and their respective narratives could be very different.
Simmons still wouldn't be able to shoot or have a defensive position.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not watching the game but Jaylen Brown just fouled out with 6:30 left after shooting 1-6 for 4 points with 7 turnovers.
 

kanga12

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Coming into the tournament, Brown was not playing well:

3/11: 3-17, 12 points against Utah (Pac-12 Tournament)
3/10: 1-6, 8 points against Oregon State w/ 6 turnovers (Pac-12 Tournament)
3/5: 3-10, 10 points against Arizona State
3/3: 2-9, 5 points against Arizona. Fouled out of the game having played only 15 minutes

Brown has gotten into foul trouble this season which has limited his minutes and appears to take him mentally out of the game -- as was the case in today's game. He's got talent for sure, but it seems like in the latter part of the season, teams were making adjustments and he hasn't made those adjustments (i.e. Brown getting called for multiple charging fouls as he continues to rely on his power/speed to attack the rim vs. pulling up or passing).

Also, in today's game, Cal was playing without two of their starters (senior point guard Wallace and guard/forward Jabari Bird who was their second best shooter) -- both of whom usually create a lot of spacing for Brown.

It was Brown's time to shine in today's game but he stunk -- though part of me is glad in hopes that maybe he'll return to Cal for one more year...

The other Cal player to keep an eye on for the draft is Ivan Rabb - a 6'11" forward. He's received a lot less hype than Brown but was highly touted coming out of high school. The knock on him is his size -- not the 6'11" height but the 220 lbs and his narrow-ish frame.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It makes no sense for Brown to return to school for a second season and will be a Top-5 pick regardless of these past two weeks. I hear it so much this time of year about a players stock hanging in the balance based on these games and it's silly. This players skillset and how it translates to the next level is the same today as it was two weeks ago.

Rabb will gain strength in time and should be at worst a second unit guy and you can't teach his size. I can't tell who he reminds me more of though.......Jerome Moiso or Ed Davis. Not a huge fan of his upside.
 

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Obviously we haven't seen any of Simmons this weekend, but as someone who was down on Ingram the last few weeks of Duke's season, he has showed up big time the last few games. If I'm an NBA GM I take him first overall, easily. No doubter.
 

Cellar-Door

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Thoughts on the top 5 picks who played today.
Ingram will be able to score in the NBA, his defense isn't good but the tools are there. I worry about how reluctant he is to get on the block and how little he contributes as a rebounder. He's a major offender in contributing to Duke being a terrible rebounding team.

Murray was better at driving than I expected but I saw the same thing that worried me when I saw him earlier in the year. He struggles to get his shot off from 3 against NBA quality athletes it's just too slow.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thoughts on the top 5 picks who played today.
Ingram will be able to score in the NBA, his defense isn't good but the tools are there. I worry about how reluctant he is to get on the block and how little he contributes as a rebounder. He's a major offender in contributing to Duke being a terrible rebounding team.

Murray was better at driving than I expected but I saw the same thing that worried me when I saw him earlier in the year. He struggles to get his shot off from 3 against NBA quality athletes it's just too slow.
The dropoff from last summers draft is even more significant than I originally thought. Add in that Bender won't be coming over immediately and the rookie class looks really suspect as a whole.

Isaiah Whitehead of Seton Hall is going to test the waters without signing with an agent.

I credit the NCAA for relaxing the rules on underclassman now allowing them to attend the Combine and participate in individual team workouts while also creating an Insurance Policy against injury which is paid for by the school should the player return to college. The next step is to allow some sort of agent participation otherwise a kid like Whitehead doesn't have a professional working for him in securing a guarantee thus ensuring he's making the correct decision. Baby steps I suppose.

We should be hearing a ton of names announcing they will be entering the draft in the coming days and weeks. This should help with creating a mock once we know who will be participating in it. Whitehead is a borderline 1st in my book competing with guys like Grayson Allen and Caris LeVert to sneak into the first round.
 

BigSoxFan

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Think I've settled on Dunn as the #3 prospect in this draft but agree that this class is incredibly underwhelming outside of the top 2.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm having trouble putting together a mock that I'm comfortable with until the selection order is in place since there are so many players who are "system players" and I have no idea where to place them. I think a player like Malcolm Brogdon can play a role on a playoff team fairly soon as an excellent 3-and-D guy but would get completely lost on an uptempo team like the Suns or Kings. Someone like Brice Johnson would fit in well with a team like that in the West but isn't long enough or can space the floor to help a slower paced team. There seem to be a ton of guys like this all over the board even in the lottery with Jaylen Brown/Jakob Poeltl, and in other spots Ulis/Denzel, etc etc

Then there are those who keep showing up in the national mocks like Deyonta Davis who may not even be able to play a lick, a shit ton of foreign players aside from Bender (who I'm not sold on from what I've seen), and a position at PG where Dunn will only land with a team who needs a PG so half of the lottery teams who could end up in the Top 4-5 wouldn't ever draft him.

I do know some guys that I do like regardless of style who will "outperform" their draft slot based on historicals......Caris LeVert, Kay Felder, Kris Dunn, Pascal Siakam are a few. Then there are some I'd never touch due to feeling they will underperform their slot.....Buddy Hield (would you take Grayson Allen as high as Hield is projected?) , Ivan Rabb (is he Ed Davis in disguise?), Deyonta Davis, and as of right now Dragan Bender.