2016 draft redux

mauf

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There were a few interesting thoughts in the Jaylen Brown thread (which badly needs a title change), and the topic came up on The Ringer's basketball podcast in the past week or so, so I thought I'd pose the question -- how would last year's NBA draft play out if the teams all knew what we know now?

Here's my take:

1. Simmons. Not clear-cut by any means, as he has arguably had two lost seasons development-wise, but I think the Sixers stick with his potential -- remember, a lot of people thought he was the best high-school prospect since Derrick Rose.

2. Brown. Ingram's ceiling is no longer clearly higher than Brown's, and Ingram's floor is indisputably lower.

3. Murray. Like Bender, Ingram isn't good enough to get rotation minutes on a 50-win team, and he isn't going to develop with his ass stapled to the bench. Murray has the best upside among guys who are playable on a good team; a case could be made for Chriss here.

4. Ingram. Not that the Suns are sour on Bender (they knew he was a major project), but they can't pass on Ingram's athleticism here.

5. Chriss. Perhaps they go for Bender, knowing that they're further away from relevance than they thought last summer, or for Hield based on positional fit, but I think they go for the mix of upside and near-term impact that Chriss offers and worry about how he fits with Towns later.

6. Hield. Key piece in the Boogie deal, which I don't think the Pelicans regret despite the poor early returns.

Note that I didn't consider trade possibilities -- there's a good chance the T'Wolves trade down due to the lack of good fits at #5, or (less likely) that the Lakers auction off the #2 pick because they don't see a potential franchise player.

Thoughts?
 
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mt8thsw9th

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I think it's spot-on for the most part, but I think it's comforting for Celtics fans that the two non-Simmons and Ingram guys they were tied to are Brown and Murray. Takes a bit of the anxiety off about not having the lottery balls fall perfectly (yet again).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pretty much spot on. Dunn is the only real big drop while Murray and Brown have shown the most. Murray and Brown are also in somewhat similar situations in that Murray doesn't need to play 30 a night and it's also not practical to play him 30 a night because they also have Harris and Mudiay to develop and because Harris is already pretty good. Not to mention Barton and all the SFs on the team. Denver is also on the rise and a team playing better and odds on favorite for the 8th spot in the playoffs.
 

Imbricus

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That's a good redraft; I was waiting for someone to start a thread like this. I've been following the rookies all season. I had some internal debate about where to put Ingram -- originally was thinking three -- but four makes sense too. I'd flip Chriss and Murray though -- Murray was hotter earlier in the season but is shooting .371 over his last 10; Chriss is looking better now and is rebounding a little, which was a knock on him in college. My top 10 might be something like:

1. Simmons (benefit of the doubt)

2. Brown (has really emerged in the last 2 months)

3. Chriss (doing better on the fouls, plus is only 19)

4. Ingram (had a 22 point game recently, but little else; still a lot of raw potential)

5. Murray

6. Brogdon (sure he's 24, but that's only one year older than Hield; he looks like the second-round steal of this draft)

7. Hield

8. Zizic (bet the Celtics would get a different draft report card if there was a do over for sportswriters!)

9. Bender

10. Hernangomez/Dunn
 

Cesar Crespo

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Even with hindsight, I'm not sure anyone would draft Brogdon in the lottery. Where Zizic would be redrafted is definitely an interesting question I hadn't thought of. I've seen a few places that projected Zizic to go in the lottery this year if he were available.

With a redraft, I'm guessing Brogdon would be drafted right around where Yabusele was drafted. If you believe he's really a 44% shooter from beyond the arc, maybe you draft him in the lottery. Also not sure why you have Hernangomez so high unless you are mistaken Juan for Wily. But Wily is looking like the 2nd round steal of the draft for 2015. I guess the other options aren't much better though so Juan at 10 isn't that much of a reach. He's shown flashes and range in limited minutes.
 

Imbricus

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Juan Hernangomez is a pretty good three-point shooter for a rookie (.418), and he had a 27-point game in February. I think he might go in the 10th slot (true, there's isn't much else beyond that anyway), and I'd draft Brogdon higher than Hernangomez. If you look at win shares for some of these guys:

Brogdon: 2.8
Hernangomez: 1.3
Chriss: 1.1
Brown: 1.0
Murray: 0.7
Hield: 0.5
Dunn: 0.1
Bender: -0.1
Ingram: -0.6

For me, the good news in a hypothetical redraft is the Celtics really drafted well, despite those mediocre report cards they got afterwards.
 

4 6 3 DP

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I read a couple times that Yabusele was only picked because Hernangomez was their target and they were shocked he went; not sure its true but read it at the time.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Juan Hernangomez is a pretty good three-point shooter for a rookie (.418), and he had a 27-point game in February. I think he might go in the 10th slot (true, there's isn't much else beyond that anyway), and I'd draft Brogdon higher than Hernangomez.
Thon Maker is 20/43 .465 from 3 this year. Juancho is 28/67 .418. He's also 4 inches taller and reportedly 17 months younger. If Thon is 20, I'm still taking him in the top 10. If he's 23? Not so much. Yeah, Thon Maker is shooting .465 from 3. Who knew?
 

Imbricus

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Thon Maker is 20/43 .465 from 3 this year.
Wow, that's interesting. Didn't realize that. Still, he's .465 in a smaller sample size, was 0 for 5 from 3 in preseason play, and is .63 percent from the foul line (vs. .73 for Hernangomez). My bet is over the long haul, Hernangomez winds up a better 3-point shooter, especially as teams get smarter and start defending Maker better out there. Still, I see your point: a 7 foot one inch guy who shoots even .35 to .40 from 3-point range is hard to turn your back on for a top-ten pick.

It's funny that all the sportswriters hated the Bucks' selection of Maker at 10; now it looks like Milwaukee may have done a pretty good job on draft night after all.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's because Thon's age is in question. Many believe he was closer to 21-23 than 19 on draft night. Neither one of them have a sample size to make a definitive statement either way. In international play, Hernangomez was 32% from beyond the arc and 75% from the line so I'm guessing the .418 isn't really a true representation either. Thon Maker was also 6-19 from 3 point range in the summer league while hitting 79.2% (19/24) of his FT. He was also 5/6 for FT and 0/5 from 3 in preseason play. He is 17/27 from FT in the regular season. If you add all that together, he is 41/57 72% from the line and 26/67 .388 from 3. Hernangomez this year is 38/52 .731 from the line and 28/67 .418 from 3. They are basically identical.

Thon is just hard to judge because High School stats are garbage. His scouting report says he can hit FTs and an open 3 point shot though. If his age is accurate, you potentially have a 7'1 defensive anchor who can hit 35% of his 3's.
 

smastroyin

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The 2012 draft has kind of had a bit of a renaissance the last couple of years.

Davis, Lillard, Drummond, Green, these are the best players of the draft and pretty much have been since joining the NBA.
But, last two year, Jae Crowder has really stepped up for the Celtics, and Khris Middleton exploded (though we'll see how he recovers from the hamstring injury)
Bradley Beal continues to get more touches and is looking like a really solid player (if not the world beater he appears to be against the C's)
Dion Waiters (still drafted too early, sure) has recovered after escaping the Durant/Westbrook shadow. Probably still just a volume scorer, but a pretty good one (of course, if his 3P% drops bad to the low 30's he's a lot less efficient)
Harrison Barnes is getting a lot more run in Dallas and adding a lot more offense, though his defense is a bit lacking.

My point is, I do wonder how long we should really be waiting to evaluate drafts. There is a strong point for patience, with all the one and dones you end up with a ton of 19-20 YO guys in the NBA. Is it surprising that after 3-4 years some of them look a lot better, and others wash out completely?

I don't feel like I have enough information to start a new thread, but if you guys have some thoughts and responses I'll probably break it out.
 
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Big John

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It's way too early to redraft 2016. We haven't seen Simmons, Yabusele or Zizic play in the NBA yet, and Bender got hurt just as he was starting to play well. Everyone knew Bender was a 2-3 year project.

But I agree that Brown has moved ahead of Ingram by a considerable margin. I don't watch the Lakers regularly (who would?) but Ingram's recent performance against the Celtics was awful.

2015 is a little easier. The top 2 picks are Towns and Porzingis, with Booker/Turner at 3 and 4 (not necessarily in that order). Okafor, Hezonja and Winslow probably fall out of the top 10. Payne moves up, and Hernangomez and Harrell move into the 10-15 range. And Rozier at 16 doesn't look like a bad pick at all.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Khris Middleton exploded (though we'll see how he recovers from the hamstring injury)
Save to say he he's fully recovered from the hamstring injury. He's now playing in back to backs and has been averaging over 30 minutes his last 5 games. During that span, he's at 30.4 mpg 19.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.6 steals on .586/.500/.842 shooting. For the year, that puts him at 11 games, 25.9mpg 14.0/3.5/4.2/1.3 on .505/.484/.861 shooting. This guy is so ridiculously underrated it's absurd. Doesn't help he plays alongside Greek Freak and Jabari, but he's better than the latter and his game matches up well with the former. Due to his height, versatility and lights out shooting, his game kinda matches up with everyone actually. He or Jokic are my favorite non Celtics so I follow him somewhat closely. He was still improving before the injury, and that looks to be the case even after. He's shown improvements in an already good passing game.

People complain about the Celtics missing Draymond Green at 35 but Middleton at 39 in the same draft is crazy. Will Barton was drafted at 40 right after Middleton. While he's no great shakes, he's more than a competent 6th man. He can pass, rebound, shoot a 3 and score some points. If I redid that draft, It'd be Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton. But I'm probably thinking about it from a Celtics perspective. Not sure how controversial that would be anyway since the other guys are Lilliard, Beal and Drummond. Middleton is arguably better than Beal in every aspect of the game. Lilliard may have a case depending on fit/need (1st option over 2nd option), while Drummond is a flawed player that wouldn't work in all systems.

I love me some Khris Middleton though.
 

JakeRae

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Save to say he he's fully recovered from the hamstring injury. He's now playing in back to backs and has been averaging over 30 minutes his last 5 games. During that span, he's at 30.4 mpg 19.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.6 steals on .586/.500/.842 shooting. For the year, that puts him at 11 games, 25.9mpg 14.0/3.5/4.2/1.3 on .505/.484/.861 shooting. This guy is so ridiculously underrated it's absurd. Doesn't help he plays alongside Greek Freak and Jabari, but he's better than the latter and his game matches up well with the former. Due to his height, versatility and lights out shooting, his game kinda matches up with everyone actually. He or Jokic are my favorite non Celtics so I follow him somewhat closely. He was still improving before the injury, and that looks to be the case even after. He's shown improvements in an already good passing game.

People complain about the Celtics missing Draymond Green at 35 but Middleton at 39 in the same draft is crazy. Will Barton was drafted at 40 right after Middleton. While he's no great shakes, he's more than a competent 6th man. He can pass, rebound, shoot a 3 and score some points. If I redid that draft, It'd be Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton. But I'm probably thinking about it from a Celtics perspective. Not sure how controversial that would be anyway since the other guys are Lilliard, Beal and Drummond. Middleton is arguably better than Beal in every aspect of the game. Lilliard may have a case depending on fit/need (1st option over 2nd option), while Drummond is a flawed player that wouldn't work in all systems.

I love me some Khris Middleton though.
Middleton is 2 years older than Beal and not as good. He's basically only better at rebounding, and not by enough to overcome that Beal is significantly better at scoring the basketball. Beal is much better at getting to the rim, and his ability to score and do so efficiently reflects that. If Middleton's jump in 3 point percentage is real, you may have a point, but it almost certainly is not, after which he's a little worse than Beal and there's that 2 year age difference again.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Middleton is 2 years older than Beal and not as good. He's basically only better at rebounding, and not by enough to overcome that Beal is significantly better at scoring the basketball. Beal is much better at getting to the rim, and his ability to score and do so efficiently reflects that. If Middleton's jump in 3 point percentage is real, you may have a point, but it almost certainly is not, after which he's a little worse than Beal and there's that 2 year age difference again.
Khris is a far better passer and defender than Beal, not to mention bigger and able to play more positions. And how is he a "little worse" 3 point shooter than Beal? His career shooting % are .451/.403/.878. Beal is at .439/.399/.791. He's a "little better." It's not like Middleton is some low volume shooter either. He averaged 4.6 3's a game last year and shot .396 to Beals 4.9 and .387. At worst, they are a wash with Middleton getting the edge in FT shooting. Middleton is literally one of the best 3 point shooters in the game, same with Beal. You are also underestimating Middleton's driving ability and ability to score. He averaged more points than Beal last year on the same amount of shots (14.5, Beal is up to 16.9 this year). They get to the line a similar amount of times. He'll probably average 19 or 20 the rest of the way to Beal's 23. The 2 years is definitely a thing, especially when Middleton missed more than half this year due to injury. Although Beal missed significant time in 14-15 and 15-16 himself.

Beal is definitely the better scorer, but I'm not sure it's nearly as significant as you think it is and given Middleton is the better passer, rebounder, defender, and FT shooter I'd take Middleton. He's every bit as efficient as Beal is.

edit: Middleton averaged 18.2 ppg last year, he's at 19.0 this year since all the playing restrictions have been lifted. I guess if you are looking at his career 13.7 ppg total you'd think Beal is crazy better. Middleton isn't though. He's a guy who gets 14-15 shots a night at high percentages.


Double edit: Also just noticed in college Middleton went .321, .360, .260 from 3 point range in college. .321 for his college career (92-287). .260 his final year on 20-77 shooting. Then he hits the NBA: .311, .414, .405, .396, .484. Career .403 on 401-995 shooting. What an improvement. He also shot .768 from the line in college in 272 attempts. In the NBA, he's at .872 on 673 attempts. Damn.

Triple edit: I wasn't aware Beal has been playing at another level since February and given his age, if that step is real... yeah. Definitely Beal. Even then, his overall game is behind Middleton's but the scoring is a huge favor to Beal. Last 19 games, 25.7ppg, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.3 steals on .551/.439/.826 shooting. I guess we'll see.
 
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Sprowl

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My impression from only a few observations was that Middleton couldn't create his own shot off the dribble, and should be valued as a catch-and-shoot specialist, while Beal has a fine handle, some slick moves and and could create any shot anywhere.
 

Cesar Crespo

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My impression from only a few observations was that Middleton couldn't create his own shot off the dribble, and should be valued as a catch-and-shoot specialist, while Beal has a fine handle, some slick moves and and could create any shot anywhere.
Middleton doesn't have the ability to create a shot like Beal does, but he isn't limited to just catch and shoot either. He came into the league with poor handles but has improved the part of his game a lot. He can also post up on smaller players just fine. In the offseason, he worked on driving and playmaking to bring his game to the next level. Then he injured his hammy before the season started.
 

moondog80

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HomeRunBaker

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My point is, I do wonder how long we should really be waiting to evaluate drafts. There is a strong point for patience, with all the one and dones you end up with a ton of 19-20 YO guys in the NBA. Is it surprising that after 3-4 years some of them look a lot better, and others wash out completely?

I don't feel like I have enough information to start a new thread, but if you guys have some thoughts and responses I'll probably break it out.
Evaluation should be continual from the day following the draft.......the problem is that human nature leads one to jump to conclusions based on immediate results without taking into account other mitigating factors. For example, how would people be judging Jaylen and Ingram today if they were in the others situation? I'm guessing Jaylen would look pretty crappy while Ingram would benefit from playing with in a real flow offensively......yet they are judged by nearly everyone based on only what they are seeing with their eyes. Where would someone have redrafted Jimmy Butler when he was sitting on the end of the Bulls bench as a 22-year old rookie many nights inactive in street clothes?

Real conclusions can't be drawn on a rookie until after 5-6 years once they have established their role/niche in the league. At this point some are producing, some are not......but few have had a chance to even figure things out yet. We'll have a MUCH better idea next season once the rookies have a chance to reflect, and train/prepare for their second time around.

You want to see steady growth like someone like Rozier has at times this year......the next step for him is to show more consistency next season. We are seeing Dunn make similar strides as Rozier did last year now that Bjelica is out and they are playing smallball almost exclusively with their second unit. He still needs to cut down on the fouling but has had several big games, especially as a defensive disruptor, since he's had more of an opportunity than handing the ball off over halfcourt for 6 minutes at a time.
 
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nighthob

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Ford is an idiot.
I don't disagree in a vacuum, but Ford's opinions are strictly what he hears from scouts and other insiders. If he's putting Dancing Bear fourth that means that scouts, for a reason I frankly can't comprehend, are raving about him. So what I take from the list is that Boston yielded a real trade asset out of the selection.
 

rhopkins2323

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http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19058283/ranking-top-10-rookies-2016-draftees-future-potential-nba

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton did a redraft. A bit disappointing that both had Brown 7th. But, they both had Zizic 5th, and Ford put Yabusele 4th.

Pelton
1. Simmons
2. Hernangomez
3. Murray
4. Brogdon
5. Zizic
6. Skal
7. Brown
8. Ingram
9. Chriss
10. Bender

Ford
1. Simmons
2. Skal
3. Murray
4.Yabusele
5. Zizic
6. Ingram
7. Brown
8. Chriss
9. Bender
10. Brogdon
This has to be one of the dumbest takes. It's not disappointing at all. Just delete from your memory.
 

slamminsammya

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Role plays a big factor here as HRB pointed out. Brown has been a better shooter and defender than I expected coming out of college. But hes basically just sitting in the corner for the Celtics. Put him on a worse team with more responsibilty and some of his flaws would be more exposed - especially his poor ball handling.
 

Eddie Jurak

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http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19058283/ranking-top-10-rookies-2016-draftees-future-potential-nba

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton did a redraft. A bit disappointing that both had Brown 7th. But, they both had Zizic 5th, and Ford put Yabusele 4th.

Pelton
1. Simmons
2. Hernangomez
3. Murray
4. Brogdon
5. Zizic
6. Skal
7. Brown
8. Ingram
9. Chriss
10. Bender

Ford
1. Simmons
2. Skal
3. Murray
4.Yabusele
5. Zizic
6. Ingram
7. Brown
8. Chriss
9. Bender
10. Brogdon
Zizic and Yabusele rocketing up the list because they haven't had their flaws expoed in the NBA.
 

BigSoxFan

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Role plays a big factor here as HRB pointed out. Brown has been a better shooter and defender than I expected coming out of college. But hes basically just sitting in the corner for the Celtics. Put him on a worse team with more responsibilty and some of his flaws would be more exposed - especially his poor ball handling.
On the flip side, similar things were said about Kawhi Leonard in his first year. None of us know how a guy will develop but I think Brown possesses the hard working mentality to make a big jump in the next couple of years. Not expecting Kawhi Leonard, of course, but I'm pretty happy where Jaylen is in his development.
 

HomeRunBaker

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On the flip side, similar things were said about Kawhi Leonard in his first year. None of us know how a guy will develop but I think Brown possesses the hard working mentality to make a big jump in the next couple of years. Not expecting Kawhi Leonard, of course, but I'm pretty happy where Jaylen is in his development.
Kawhi DID have many flaws coming out of SD State. I think slamma's point, which is mine as well, is that young players who are allowed to play to their strengths early in their careers give them the best chance to develop the game at their own pace while initially competing for a limited role and seeing some successes. When he was at SD State he was a physical freak with insane measurements but really struggled shooting the ball, dribbling the ball, and passing the ball. Of course he faced many of the same difficulties as Jaylen did with zone defenses and did much of his work in the paint where he simply overpowered college players of the WAC or Mountain West (whichever conference they were in at the time).

It's a shame that skilled young players like a Mudiay, Okafor, and countless others are throw into the mix as teenage rookies and continue the entitlement process that had been given to them their entire lives. The best thing for a Jaylen and Kawhi was to learn a professional work ethic from veteran players on a contending team with a structure in place.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Zizic and Yabusele rocketing up the list because they haven't had their flaws expoed in the NBA.
Bingo. Any list that has Dancing Bear ahead of Jaylen based on dominating the CBA is silly.

From what I've seen Jaylen has a big discrepancy in perception between Celtics fans, who have presumably seen him play a bunch, and the general NBA twitter verse, who are presumably judging him on stats. From my eye, he has a lot to learn, but the upside is obvious- fantastic first step, nice-looking shot, ability to get to the rim and finish through contact, body control, leaping ability and defensive tools all look legit to me, and his approach to the game looks great to me so far. Ball handling and decision-making need to be improved, but I'm less worried that the latter is a serious issue than I was five months months ago. Upside-wise, he only trails Simmons, in a tier with Skal, Chriss and Ingram.
 

Imbricus

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Those are weird lists. Not a big fan of Hield, but he should be on there somewhere, especially considering how well he's doing with the Kings. I'd put Chriss top 5; in April he had 3 20 point games and 3 games with at least 4 blocked shots -- plus he's two years younger than Skal. Yabusele at four is a joke. Zizic at five is optimistic. Would drop Murray a little from three. I like Hernangomez but no way at two.
 

nighthob

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They're little more than a year apart in age. Right now it reads 21-19, but Skal just turned 21 and Chriss is about to turn 20.
 

Imbricus

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Thanks nighthob -- I noticed that after I posted. Looks like about 16 months separates them.
 

Sprowl

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Pelton
1. Simmons
2. Hernangomez
3. Murray
4. Brogdon
5. Zizic
6. Skal
7. Brown
8. Ingram
9. Chriss
10. Bender

Ford
1. Simmons
2. Skal
3. Murray
4.Yabusele
5. Zizic
6. Ingram
7. Brown
8. Chriss
9. Bender
10. Brogdon
Trade value peaking
 

MainerInExile

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Ford and Pelton made those lists by talking to NBA executives who are totally not Danny Ainge. "Brown is not the pick you want, you want Zizic."
 

Auger34

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Pelton's list is effectively useless. It's all based off of his statistical model which is questionable at best.
I like Malcolm Brogdon but there is absolutely no way he would be taken in the top 5 of a re-draft.
Also, I'm not sure how Brown could be taken out of the top 3 in a re-draft. All he's done since being drafted is carve out a role on a team competing for a title, all the while showing all the traits and athleticism that had scouts drooling in the first place
 

Cesar Crespo

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It could, but we see the progress Jaylen Brown has made up close. We don't see that with Ingram, Chriss, Bender, Hernangomez etc. When people talk about Jaylen, they still talk about what he could be and that very progress he made. He's still not a good basketball player. That said, I'm still taking him 3rd. Most people outside of Boston have a far different opinion of Jaylen Brown than people in Boston though.
 

Sam Ray Not

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To what degree is the fact that Brogdon is a fully-grown 24 year-old man factored into Pelton's ranking? I like Brogdon a lot, and would take him #1 if we're talking about impact this season or even next season. But I mean, he should be impactful at age 24. If we're talking about the next 8-9 seasons (say a rookie contract plus one big extension), I'd sooner take a flier on 19 y.o. Ingram, 20 y.o. Brown and possibly even (Warrior homer alert) 21 y.o. Patrick McCaw.
 

sezwho

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When people talk about Jaylen, they still talk about what he could be and that very progress he made. He's still not a good basketball player.
Well he can shoot, finish at the rim, and plays aggressive D. He also occasionally starts for a very demanding coach on the team with the best record in the east. Does he have room to improve? Does he get lost out there sometimes? Yes. Not a good basketball player? I think that deserves some explanation...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well he can shoot, finish at the rim, and plays aggressive D. He also occasionally starts for a very demanding coach on the team with the best record in the east. Does he have room to improve? Does he get lost out there sometimes? Yes. Not a good basketball player? I think that deserves some explanation...
The Celtics are worse with him on the court. It's not exactly a hot take. He's a net negative on the court, like a lot of rookies, especially 20 year old ones.
 

Drocca

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He's obviously a good basketball player. He is not a good NBA player nor should we expect him to be at this point.