2015 Tennis Thread: the Nadal farewell tour?

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MentalDisabldLst

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3rd set goes to a tiebreak.  Roger's looking a bit better against the Stan serve, but still not great.  Could all be over for him in a hurry.
 
edit: what's weird to me is, Roger is guessing on direction for a lot of groundstrokes, and guessing wrong.  He's not chasing down stuff once it's hit the way he once did.  I dunno if he's gassed, or if Stan just hits a lot harder than I realize.
 
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MentalDisabldLst

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wtf just happened?  Wawrinka hits a shot to the baseline that's called out, Federer chips the reply in response, and... they award the point to Wawrinka?
 
edit: Stan wins on a Federer serve point, so the weird call probably didn't matter.  He was 5-0 on his serve points in the tiebreak anyway, making him serve a 6th wouldn't likely have changed anything.  But still, a slightly odd ending.
 

fletcherpost

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Did you see the replay, we didn't get one, but I think he finished his shot prior to the call. But i need to see a replay.
 
Stan played great, when he plays this good i wonder why he hasn't put it together more often or if he's just a player whose improvement has been really really steady.
 
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No, of course not, why would they show a replay of a controversial call at the most decisive moment of the match?  One which resulted in the sublimely-reserved Federer barking at the chair umpire?  Don't be silly, Fletch.
 
edit: also, with Nishikori pulling out the 3rd set, I think ESPN3 will carry the rest of the match starting at 1.
 

bosoxsue

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Poor Stan, doesn't even get to be the biggest news in Switzerland for more than 30 minutes.
 

jon abbey

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That 3-3 call was really odd, I think Fed somehow conceded it but I thought he hit it back in play?
 
Nishikori making a major run here, 13 of the last 19 games after being down 1-6, 1-5 now. 
 

jon abbey

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Nishikori was broken 5 of his first 6 service games, but has now held 12 times in a row. They're starting the 5th now, the winner here will be happy to get two days off before the semis. 
 
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Provisional schedule for tomorrow is up.  At 8am ET (2pm Paris time), the Ladies' Quarters start, with Serena-Errani on Chatrier and two randos on Lenglen.  Following those matches will be Djokovic-Nadal and Murray-Ferrer respectively.  So if Serena gets her shit together and doesn't go to a 3rd set again, then given usual inter-match and warmup time, you'd expect Djokovic-Nadal to have their first point played around 10:00 ET.
 
Serena has played Sara Errani 8 times and won all 8, dropping only two sets in the process, although their most recent meeting (on clay in Rome a few weeks ago) almost went the other way (4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3).  The previous 7 times were mostly curb-stompings.
 

jon abbey

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Tsonga got a bit of a second wind in the 5th, and Nishikori seemed a bit drained by his huge uphill comeback. Tsonga got a break early in the set and served it out, so Tsonga or Wawrinka will be in the final. 
 
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If you really believe Nadal to be a strong favorite in tomorrow's match, you'll go on Ladbrokes and take Nadal at 4-1 to win the tournament.  Surely if he can take out Djokovic, then Murray and Wawrinka/Tsonga aren't going to stand in his way either.
 
And yet, it's Djokovic who's installed as the tournament favorite, 8-to-11 odds.  And he's the favorite (on Bovada) to win just the match against Nadal, by more than a 2-to-1 edge.  Basically: The market thinks Djokovic has a 70% chance to win tomorrow.  Nadal has never before been more likely to lose at Roland Garros, including the day that he actually lost.
 
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Well, that was an entertaining warm-up match.  Serena blows Errani away, 6-1, 6-3, in a match that wasn't even as close as that sounds.  I think winners were 39-9 Serena.  She didn't have her "A" serve, was coughing, and made a ton of errors in the 2nd set, but Errani really had nothing to threaten her except the occasional bit of net play.  She may very well win a major title while her hitting elbow is injured.
 

AMS25

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Yep, Errani had nothin'. Have to take the kids out for their morning scooter ride, but I expect Nadal/Djokovic will still be playing by the time I get back.
 
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Clever by Djokovic to wear the same color as the dirt.  Nobody's tried camouflage on Nadal before.
 
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That point was ridiculous.  It's really just not Nadal's day so far.
 

fletcherpost

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Apisith said:
Here we go. This is going to be good.
 
Aye, but let's hope it's not short and sweet. Rafa two breaks down already...early justification for the generous odds offered for a Rafa win.
 
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Well that's one way to get on the board.  3 Djokovic errors and a down-the-line passing shot winner by Nadal get him one break back.  Now he's got to stop hitting everything long on his serve.
 
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The Djoko-bot is malfunctioning a little.  Maybe Nadal's not the only one who's nervous.
 

fletcherpost

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Weird stat time. Compared to this time last year the ball is bouncing, on average, 8 inches higher on Chartrier.
 
Who does this favour?
 
EDIT: Form the geeks who work with Hawkeye.
 

Apisith

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Rafa? He can hammer the Djokovic BH, which although awesome, isn't as good as Rafa's FH on clay. No?
 

Apisith

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Djokovic doesn't hit with too much top spin on his FH so I'm only seeing the benefit from Rafa's POV.
 
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I'd think Rafa, because the thing people always say about his play on clay - what makes him so good - is that he puts so much spin on his hits that when his shots bounce off a clay surface, they bounce really high.  If it's bouncing even higher, that's got to induce even more errors/mis-hits than usual, no?
 
edit: here's some support.
 
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Man, I really thought he'd escaped to the tiebreak
 
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OK Rafa, here's your chance to raise your game. break Novak here, or youre down 2-0 in sets and youve almost never taken 3 sets in a row from him even in your prime.
 

Apisith

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This feels like it's over. Rafa hasn't really had a shot at Novak's serve since the middle of the first set. Djokovic is dominating the rallies and for once in Paris, he's putting them away.
 

Apisith

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Rafa's lost that slight yard of speed and it seems like he's not as invincible as he was before. He's late to a few balls that years ago he'd be able to put more power into.
 
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Well, there's the stat of the match. Set 2: 46% first-serves for Nadal. 58% first-serve points won. Those are not auspicious numbers... and there's a break for Djokovic rright away.

yikes.
 
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This is over. I'm gonna go watch Murray clown Ferrer.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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Two breaks for Djokovic to open the third set. This is over.
 
Novak was flexing his right leg a few times, maybe just a tweak or a small cramp.
 

fletcherpost

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Yeah this is pretty much over...it's Nadal an all but man - Novak is exposing him something chronic. I feel for Nadal. The Thread title becomes ever more apt.
 
This is over. I'm gonna go watch Murray clown Ferrer.
 
 
It's a bit scrappy. Lots of unforced errors. Murray far from his best.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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Can anyone left even win a set against Djokovic?
 
Even if Federer advanced I don't see him even taking one.
 
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The fancy-pants sections of the stands in the Murray-Ferrer match are basically empty.  Everyone with a premium ticket is watching Djokovic-Nadal.
 
 
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fletcherpost said:
Yeah this is pretty much over...it's Nadal an all but man - Novak is exposing him something chronic. I feel for Nadal. The Thread title becomes ever more apt.
 
I guess we always saw it coming that the first of the Big 4 to drop out of serious major contention would be Nadal, given the beating he puts on his knees.
 
Kinda amazing that in 2010, the only thing that prevented Rafa from taking the calendar-year Grand Slam was Andy Murray in the Australian Open QFs.
 

fletcherpost

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Ferrer giving it everything here, fighting for survival. Struggling with his ball toss, moaning about the photographers, but still chasing every ball and playing great from the back.
 
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The top of the men's tour is very old right now:
 
#1: Djokovic (28)
#2: Federer (33)
#3: Murray (28)
#4: Berdych (29)
#5: Nishikori (25)
#6: Raonic (24)
#7: Nadal (29)
#8: Ferrer (33)
#9: Wawrinka (30)
#10: Lopez (33)
 
Avg: 29.2
 
Compare with, say, the middle of 1996:
 
1. Sampras (24)
2. Muster (28)
3. Chang (24)
4. Kafelnikov (22)
5. Becker (28)
6. Ivanisevic (24)
7. Agassi (26)
8. Krajicek (24)
9. Courier (25)
10. Ferreira (24)
 
Avg: 24.9.  Back then, most people were on the tail end of their careers at 29.  Today, half of the top 10 is that old.
 
When the shake-up comes and those guys leading today drop off or retire, it's going to be chaos for a while.  Although another interpretation of it could be, though, that the guys who have led the tour for this long are so much better than the competition that their age-30 effort is better than what the up-and-comers can offer at 23, 24, etc.  Even Nishikori's record against the Big 4 is pretty embarrassing, last year's US Open notwithstanding.  Same for Raonic.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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MentalDisabldLst said:
The top of the men's tour is very old right now:
 
#1: Djokovic (28)
#2: Federer (33)
#3: Murray (28)
#4: Berdych (29)
#5: Nishikori (25)
#6: Raonic (24)
#7: Nadal (29)
#8: Ferrer (33)
#9: Wawrinka (30)
#10: Lopez (33)
 
Avg: 29.2
 
Compare with, say, the middle of 1996:
 
1. Sampras (24)
2. Muster (28)
3. Chang (24)
4. Kafelnikov (22)
5. Becker (28)
6. Ivanisevic (24)
7. Agassi (26)
8. Krajicek (24)
9. Courier (25)
10. Ferreira (24)
 
Avg: 24.9.  Back then, most people were on the tail end of their careers at 29.  Today, half of the top 10 is that old.
 
When the shake-up comes and those guys leading today drop off or retire, it's going to be chaos for a while.  Although another interpretation of it could be, though, that the guys who have led the tour for this long are so much better than the competition that their age-30 effort is better than what the up-and-comers can offer at 23, 24, etc.  Even Nishikori's record against the Big 4 is pretty embarrassing, last year's US Open notwithstanding.  Same for Raonic.
 
Its going to be interesting to see what happens.  I believe that Agassi is the only man since the mid 1970s to win more than one GS title after turning 30.  That's a pretty strong trend for any of these older players to buck once they hit that point.  Unless a young under-the-radar player really elevates his game pretty soon, I could see a womens-tennis-minus-Serena situation for a while in which there is a ton of turnover and unpredictability at the top.
 

Apisith

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How much of this newfound longevity is because of PEDs? Obviously tennis isn't doing much about it, so I don't see why these players can't continue to dominate.
 

fletcherpost

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Apisith said:
How much of this newfound longevity is because of PEDs? Obviously tennis isn't doing much about it, so I don't see why these players can't continue to dominate.
 
Seriously...I never heard any talk of PEDs in the sport before...have I had my heed in the sand on this?
 
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fletcherpost said:
Seriously...I never heard any talk of PEDs in the sport before...have I had my heed in the sand on this?
 
If so, that makes two of us.  The only talk I heard of at all in the last decade was when Marin Cilic won the US Open last year, after having previously been suspended for PEDs and then suddenly surging to take a prestigious title in the sport.  My understanding is that they test the shit out of the top 200 or so players on the tour.
 

BGrif21125

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Apisith said:
How much of this newfound longevity is because of PEDs? Obviously tennis isn't doing much about it, so I don't see why these players can't continue to dominate.
A significant amount, most likely. In this era of baseline-dominated play and routine occurrences of 4+ hour wars of attrition among the top players, the sport demands amazing endurance and recuperative abilities in between matches. I'm sure tennis players are willing to do the same things to be at the top as athletes in all the other sports.
 
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Lucie Safarova is wearing a thong.  Thanks, breeze.
 
She's also taken over this semi and probably will take the 2nd set after storming back to take the 1st.
 
Serena vs Some Fool, ETA 11:00am.