2015 Ravens: Achilles 4, Suggs 0, Karma 7

[DJnVa]

So that running game better get fixed up by Sunday or they're going to lose at home to the Browns unless Kamar Aiken is a lot better than I remember.

 
Forsett rushed for 150 yards this week.
 

 

[Stitch01]

So they are done.

 

[jsinger121]

So they are done.

One more loss will probably cook them but they have no margin for error now.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah they could theoretically go 10-1 or something but since they have lost at Oakland vs Cleveland and should have lost to Mike Vick I don't really see it.

 

[8slim]

I take such delight in watching this franchise lose. It's probably not entirely healthy but I don't care.

 

[dcmissle]

They are done. People continue to go down on both sides of the ball. Don't see any way of climbing out of the hole with the injuries.

 

[dcmissle]

Dup

 

[E5 Yaz]

Harbaugh whining that the home game against the Browns was played at home

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Not enough bad can happen to this team or their faux-macho, full douchebag HC. Done done done. I hope they keep losing.

 

[Tony C]

God i wish they were on the Pats' schedule this year.

 

[dynomite]

One more loss will probably cook them but they have no margin for error now.

Teams that are 6-6 have no margin for error.

Teams that are 1-4 are just crappy.

The Ravens have devastating injuries on both sides of the ball and gave up 500 yards to the Browns at home yesterday. They're just not good this year.

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of guys.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Plus next year they have to either extend Flacco again or start dealing with cap numbers of 28.5, 31 and 24.75 over the next 3 years. 
 
They're only at $15 mill this year. Gotta pay sooner or later.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Plus next year they have to either extend Flacco again or start dealing with cap numbers of 28.5, 31 and 24.75 over the next 3 years. 
 
They're only at $15 mill this year. Gotta pay sooner or later.

 
If I were Ozzie, I'd seriously consider gutting the team, and extending Flacco this year, paying out some of the deferred money in a signing bonus.  It seems like the most useful thing they could can get out of this year is try to get rid of some of the dead money in future years.

 

[Ed Hillel]

CHOOO CHOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Not elite.

 

[dcmissle]

As noted in another thread, if SS Sr. is serious about retirement, he should be traded by Nov 3.

I'd love to have him.

 

[Ed Hillel]

As noted in another thread, if SS Sr. is serious about retirement, he should be traded by Nov 3.

I'd love to have him.

 
You're more likely to see New England lose by 30 tonight than Biscotti trade Smith to New England.
 
I bet Smith regrets that decision at this point, though.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

He'd be awesome on the Pats.  I don't think they need him, though.  Would rather see them spring for a CB.
 
Plus what Ed said.

 

[jsinger121]

1-5 done

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

1-5 done

 
Karma #5!

 

[Stitch01]

They're bad. I don't see any reason to think they will be anything but bad in 2016

 

[jsinger121]

Not sure what Greg Bedard saw in the Ravens to think they were going to win the Super Bowl in his mind. They lost their best receiver in Torrey Smith. The TE's stink. Outside of the aging and gimpy Steve Smith the WR's all stink as well. The secondary is awful and they cannot get pressure. They are awful.

 

[Stitch01]

Smith is gone next year and their first round wr is having a lost year, so it's problem for them next year

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Not sure what Greg Bedard saw in the Ravens to think they were going to win the Super Bowl in his mind. They lost their best receiver in Torrey Smith. The TE's stink. Outside of the aging and gimpy Steve Smith the WR's all stink as well. The secondary is awful and they cannot get pressure. They are awful.

Top flight lines on both sides of the ball; more importantly what looked a rebuilt secondary with enough pass rushers to keep the pressure on. The defense supposed to be top-10; instead it's bottom 10 as other than Brandon Williams and a couple of players on the defensive line, every other player on defense regressed or didn't play up to expectations or got hurt.

Plus, the Ravens have a ton of dead money this year from Ray Rice and Ngata (something like $21M overall).

And there's Dean Pees . . . .

 

[Shelterdog]

It's becoming increasingly clear to me that Ozzie is the home run hitter of GMs: he lucks into pro bowlers in the first round (Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata all radically outperformed their draft status) but otherwise is pretty mediocre.  

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's becoming increasingly clear to me that Ozzie is the home run hitter of GMs: he lucks into pro bowlers in the first round (Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata all radically outperformed their draft status) but otherwise is pretty mediocre.

Of the something like 20 first rounders Ozzie has selected, he's gotten something around 57 pro bowl seasons. You didn't mention guys as good as Peter Boulware, Chris McAlister, and Jamal Lewis (each picked in the top 10) and also guys like Todd Heap and more recently CJ Mosley. And that doesn't even include Flacco, who while not getting to a pro bowl definitely counts as a first round hit.

Recently, however, his record has been more spotty. And the most glaring part of Ozzie's drafts is his inability to draft playmaking WRs, which seems notably absent these days given how CIN and PIT seems to real one in with every draft. Ozzie seems to only draft tall WRs, which is curious given how the game is progressed. For instance, the Ravens could have had Stefon Diggs, who played at UMD, in the fourth round but they decided to draft (and probably reach for) a project in Tray Walker. Diggs is someone they really could have used right now.

I think I mentioned this elsewhere, but the Ravens philosophy is not that they draft better than every team in the league but that they should have more chances - i.e., picks - than every team in the league, which they have (they' had 44 compensatory picks since 1994, which is tops in the NFL). See http://wnst.net/baltimore-ravens/ravens-awarded-three-compensatory-picks-in-2015-draft/.

But the problem is that when a team is giving up guys who are getting multi-year contracts and signing guys who don't require compensation, there comes a point where a couple of whiffs can really hurt the personnel. The Ravens are lacking playmakers right now and missing on their last few 1st and 2nd round draft picks (other than Mosley) makes that obvious.

Which is a long way of saying that people are starting to ask the same questions about Ozzie as you are.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I just realized that this team has an absolutely crazy schedule - 5 of 7 on the road to start the season followed by 6 of the next 8 at home (before ending with a game on the road).

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I was foolishly worried the easiness of their schedule could get them to 8-4 after they beat Pittsburgh. Now I'm rooting for wins, especially against the Steelers and Browns.

Also, that loss yesterday makes them 20-20 since 2013. Elite organization!

 

[Super Nomario]

Of the something like 20 first rounders Ozzie has selected, he's gotten something around 57 pro bowl seasons. You didn't mention guys as good as Peter Boulware, Chris McAlister, and Jamal Lewis (each picked in the top 10) and also guys like Todd Heap and more recently CJ Mosley. And that doesn't even include Flacco, who while not getting to a pro bowl definitely counts as a first round hit.

Recently, however, his record has been more spotty. And the most glaring part of Ozzie's drafts is his inability to draft playmaking WRs, which seems notably absent these days given how CIN and PIT seems to real one in with every draft. Ozzie seems to only draft tall WRs, which is curious given how the game is progressed. For instance, the Ravens could have had Stefon Diggs, who played at UMD, in the fourth round but they decided to draft (and probably reach for) a project in Tray Walker. Diggs is someone they really could have used right now.

They really haven't drafted wide receivers at all - since Torrey Smith in 2011 (a big hit in the second-round) he hasn't used more than a sixth- or seventh- rounder until Perriman in the first this year. Perriman's been hurt, so we can't really judge that pick.
 

I think I mentioned this elsewhere, but the Ravens philosophy is not that they draft better than every team in the league but that they should have more chances - i.e., picks - than every team in the league, which they have (they' had 44 compensatory picks since 1994, which is tops in the NFL). See http://wnst.net/baltimore-ravens/ravens-awarded-three-compensatory-picks-in-2015-draft/.

I think this is right. Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.
 

But the problem is that when a team is giving up guys who are getting multi-year contracts and signing guys who don't require compensation, there comes a point where a couple of whiffs can really hurt the personnel. The Ravens are lacking playmakers right now and missing on their last few 1st and 2nd round draft picks (other than Mosley) makes that obvious.

Which is a long way of saying that people are starting to ask the same questions about Ozzie as you are.

They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than  T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.
 
I think questioning Ozzie is a little silly. They haven't had a losing season since 2007, and they've had a lot of injuries this year. They're not even that bad - none of their losses have been by more than 6 points, so their point differential (-19) is actually 17th in the league. I expect them to win some of these close games and finish 7-9 or something.

 

[Stitch01]

Ozzie's fine, every team in the league will have a draft lull if the same group picks long enough as it is a bit of a crapshoot.
 
Still glad this team is a tire fire and glad I wont have to read any more comparisons between Ravens and Pats success after the like 6 to 9 game gap in wins this season.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Yeah you have to go back to 2009 for the Pats get to the last 20 Patriot losses. As noted above Ravens are 20-20 since 2013. Aside from one Super Bowl win each there is no comparison.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than  T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.

 
Has Upshaw been a disappointment? He obviously hasn't offered any pass rush that you would normally expect from a high-second rounder but I imagine they thought he would be the Jarret Johnson-type edge setter which he seems to have done very well. I could be way off, though.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Has Upshaw been a disappointment? He obviously hasn't offered any pass rush that you would normally expect from a high-second rounder but I imagine they thought he would be the Jarret Johnson-type edge setter which he seems to have done very well. I could be way off, though.

He played fewer than half the snaps in 2014. He's a role player, which has some value, but as you note he's given them zero pass rush - his last sack was in 2013. He's not a bust bust, but I think "disappointment" is fair.

 

[Shelterdog]

They really haven't drafted wide receivers at all - since Torrey Smith in 2011 (a big hit in the second-round) he hasn't used more than a sixth- or seventh- rounder until Perriman in the first this year. Perriman's been hurt, so we can't really judge that pick.
 
I think this is right. Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.
 
They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than  T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.
 
I think questioning Ozzie is a little silly. They haven't had a losing season since 2007, and they've had a lot of injuries this year. They're not even that bad - none of their losses have been by more than 6 points, so their point differential (-19) is actually 17th in the league. I expect them to win some of these close games and finish 7-9 or something.

 
It really depends on what you think about the team going forward--I think this is an old team without a lot of talent under good contracts and they're quickly going to go from underpaying to massively overpaying for their QB. Ozzie is fine but I'm dubious about his ability to put together consistent playoff teams going forward--I think the reality is that no matter how good you are you have to be absurdly lucky to put together winning teams without an excellent QB.

 

[Super Nomario]

It really depends on what you think about the team going forward--I think this is an old team without a lot of talent under good contracts and they're quickly going to go from underpaying to massively overpaying for their QB. 

I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.
 

Ozzie is fine but I'm dubious about his ability to put together consistent playoff teams going forward--I think the reality is that no matter how good you are you have to be absurdly lucky to put together winning teams without an excellent QB.

Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.

 

[pappymojo]

I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.
 
Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.

 
or tanking [/colts]

 

[Shelterdog]

I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.
 
Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.

 
We generally agree.  I do think Ozzie probably relies a little too much on star players in their thirties (Boldin, Smith Sr., Lewis, Suggs, Yanda, Birk, now Dumervil and Webb) but then again it's worked out for them--Suggs is the only one of those deals that looks like it might blow up in their face) and they get HiGH levels of performance from the older players so maybe it's not just luck.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I see what you did there.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
We generally agree.  I do think Ozzie probably relies a little too much on star players in their thirties (Boldin, Smith Sr., Lewis, Suggs, Yanda, Birk, now Dumervil and Webb) but then again it's worked out for them--Suggs is the only one of those deals that looks like it might blow up in their face) and they get HiGH levels of performance from the older players so maybe it's not just luck.

 
part of the issue with the Ravens is that they are in cap hell.  Instead of tearing it all down after 2013 (like they did in 2002) they've attempted to keep competitive while they address their salary cap issues from 2013.  But they haven't (and the Ray Rice debacle didn't help), so right now, here is one big reason they are 1-5:
 
Webb:  2015 cap # = $9,250,000M (this is a restructured figure as Webb took a pay cut at the beginning of the season).
Pitta:  2015 cap# = $6,200,000M
Suggs:  2015 cap# = $3,950.000
Matt Elam: 2015 cap# = $1,845,546
Ray Rice:  2015 cap# = $9,676,470
Ngata:  2015 cap# = $7,500,000
Jacoby Jones:  2015 cap# = $2,625,000
 
(numbers from here:  http://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/).
 
I have this as $41 million and change, and all of this money is going to players who aren't on the team or are hurt (other than Webb, although as I understand it, except for a few quarters this season and a couple of games at the end of last season, he's either been hurt or pretty bad).  The number could be higher if you $2M for Schaub, the back-up QB, and some other players who have been hurt this season (Perriman and Canty come to mind).
 
Right now all of their dead money comes off the books next year - although they will definitely have to do something with Webb and might have to do something with Pitta and as everyone here knows, Flacco's cap hit goes up exponentially.  Will be interesting to see how Baltimore handles this whole thing.

 

[Stitch01]

I looked at doing this a couple of weeks ago when I was thinking about your suggestion about eating dead money this year to help for the future (I hadn't realized they had so much dead money on the books this year until your post), and while I never finished the work I don't think all that dead money comes off next year.  Overthecap is a little wonky, and I think Rice/Ngata/Jones get cleared off at least, but Webb, Pitta, and Suggs would all have meaningful dead money hits next year if cut, plus they have to extend Flacco.  So they'll have more money, but not the whole benefit of that $41MM in dead money. 

 

[soxhop411]

Andrew Siciliano ‏@AndrewSiciliano  1h1 hour ago
Ravens WR Steve Smith, asked how he recovered so quickly from injury:
"I have a great nutritionist I'm sleeping with...which is my wife."

 

[pappymojo]

A couple days old but I figure it pertains to figuring out their future cap space.
 
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/breaking-down-ravens-guard-marshal-yandas-37-417-million-deal/
 

Breaking down Ravens guard Marshal Yanda’s $37.417 million deal

 

[Montana Fan]

Where is the Ray Lewis book being discussed?
 
Sample

 

I heard God’s voice. I did. he came to me from somewhere in the darkness of that holding cell—said, “Can you hear me now?”
And underneath this voice, in the middle of that darkness, there was a message—came in clear and loud and true.
The message: whatever much and more I had to slog through in that jail cell in Atlanta, it would strengthen me.
Whatever shadows there were now, hanging over me and my family, it would strengthen me.
Whatever dirt these people in law enforcement were determined to do to my name, my standing, my pride, it would only strengthen me.
Can you hear me now?
Oh yes—yes, I can hear you! Yes!

 
Deadspin article.
http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/what-does-ray-lewis-s-book-say-about-that-night-in-atla-1737593747

 

[BroodsSexton]

New Verizon spokesman.

 

[Stitch01]

Big fan of the "I couldn't have murderd someone I was dressed to the nines and wouldn't want to wreck my clothes" defense

 

[Montana Fan]

Big fan of the "I couldn't have murderd someone I was dressed to the nines and wouldn't want to wreck my clothes" defense

 
And of course those clothes were not recovered.

 

[pappymojo]

http://www.amazon.com/Feel-Like-Going-Life-Glory/dp/150111235X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445519389&sr=1-1&keywords=ray+lewis
 

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
 
Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.

 
The first part is no doubt true---however, I'd be pretty surprised if the second part is.   Have you seen a study or analysis suggesting this?   I wonder a bit if we're taking the fact that no one is perfect and over-extrapolating that to 'everyone is pretty much the same'

 

[Stitch01]

Ray is coming to sign books at the Prudential Center Barnes and Noble next month if anyone wants to discuss  football or obstruction of justice
 

The first part is no doubt true---however, I'd be pretty surprised if the second part is.   Have you seen a study or analysis suggesting this?   I wonder a bit if we're taking the fact that no one is perfect and over-extrapolating that to 'everyone is pretty much the same'
 

I think there are a few incompetent teams at any given time and that once you get over the competency hurdle, there isnt much difference.  
 
I think there's also advantages for stable organizations because they know what kind of systems they want to run so dont waste picks putting round pegs into square holes.
 
Beyond that, yup, pretty much a crapshoot.  (well thats not totally true, but generally close enough)
 
This is an academic study on the issue.  Anecdotally it seems true to me as well. 
 

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121
 

 
http://chartsnthings.tumblr.com/post/49236510636/charting-skill-and-chance-in-the-nfl-draft
 

What we wanted to focus on was the reality that there’s much more randomness in the draft than people realize. Cade Massey and Richard H. Thaler, behavioral psychologists, analyzed the draft and found that not only is there no persistent skill among teams in picking players – teams have good years and bad years in equal measure – but that across all players and positions, teams only picked a player better than the person who went next at that position 52 percent of the time. Their academic paper is here, but Massey explained this in a much more accessible way in a recent talk at the Sloan/MIT sports analytics conference.
 

 

[pappymojo]

 
The first part is no doubt true---however, I'd be pretty surprised if the second part is.   Have you seen a study or analysis suggesting this?   I wonder a bit if we're taking the fact that no one is perfect and over-extrapolating that to 'everyone is pretty much the same'

 
The other aspect that would sway any such analysis would be the scouting services like BLESTO and National. 
 
This blog piece isn't dated so I don't know how accurate it is currently.
 
http://www.draftdaddy.com/features/blesto.htm
 

There are twelve teams in BLESTO (ATL, BUF, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, JAC, MIA, MIN, NYG, PIT).

There are fifteen subscribers to the National (AZ, CAR, CIN, DEN, GB, KC, NO, NYJ, PHI, STL, SD, SF, SEA, TB, TEN). National Scouting also is the logistical organizer of record for the event in Indianapolis.

Interesting that both Baltimore and New England are not listed for either service.