2015 Penn State Football

SoxJox

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From Red Zone stats it would seem the Wolverines have the distinctive edge.

Given the on air accolades by anouncers, I'm somewhat surprised the Lions are ranked so low on defense.


[Sorry, Phrenile's tabilizer is not available over in the "Posting data" thread. All the links are broken]

Red Zone Defense
Rank / Team / G / Opp RZAtt Opp / RZ Rush TD / Opp RZ Pass TD / Opp RZ FG Made / Opp RZScores Pct
49(T) / Michigan / 10 / 22 / 5 / 3 / 10 / 18 / 0.818
121 / Penn St. / 10 / 26 / 11 / 7 / 6 / 24 / 0.923
Red Zone Offense
Rank Team / G RZAtt / RZ Rush TD / RZ Pass TD / RZ FG Made / RZScores Pct
3 / Michigan / 10 / 42 / 19 / 10 / 11 / 40 / 0.952
12(T) / Penn St. / 10 / 36 / 12 / 9 / 12 / 33 / 0.917
 

SoxJox

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Here's the Campus Onsider take on the game:

Both teams are still alive in the Big Ten championship chase. Michigan (8-2) has a little more control than Penn State (7-3) – okay, a LOT more control – but the loser of this is definitely out. At the very least, this will go a long way to figuring out the Big Ten bowl pecking order and will set the stage for a big final week of the season. Check out the Michigan vs. Penn State prediction and game preview.

Why You Need To Care
Michigan might have been shaky against Minnesota and Indiana on the road – needing goal line stands in each to get out with tight wins. But there’s still a shot to do just about everything anyone could’ve hoped for, needing to win this week to set up the season-ender against Ohio State. First, the Wolverines need to take care of business against the Nittany Lions. Second, they need Ohio State to beat Michigan State. If that happens, then the hype will be off the charts for the showdown with the Buckeyes. Can Michigan get into the CFP? If it dominates over the next two weeks, and if it’s able to get a shot at a 12-0 Iowa and wins in a blowout, then … maybe.

Penn State is still in this thing, too. It’s going to need to win out against Michigan and Michigan State, and it’ll need Ohio State to beat Michigan State, and then it’ll need Michigan to beat Ohio State – it’s all complicated, but it’s possible. But just getting a really, really strong win would be nice considering the best victory so far came against San Diego State. This is a good team with a solid defense, but now the offense will have to come through. Now the inconsistent attack that rolled through Maryland and Illinois needs to rise up after two weeks off and come up with something special.

Why Michigan Will Win
Penn State doesn’t have a Jordan Howard. Indiana ran for 307 yards last week with Howard and running the same play over and over again. The Michigan run D hasn’t been quite as strong as it was early in the year when it didn’t allow 100 yards rushing six straight games, but outside of last week it’s still been excellent. The Wolverine defense should be able to swarm all over the mediocre Penn State rushing game that hasn’t hit the 200-yard mark in any of the last seven games – but it came up with 195 yards against Penn State. No. 2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense, Michigan will take its chances against the Nittany Lion passing game.

Why Penn State Will Win
As good as Michigan’s defense has been, it’s not a monster when it comes to takeaways with just four in the last five games. While Penn State has had some fumbling issues lately, the passing game isn’t giving it up – and the defense is picking up the slack. The air attack has picked thins up with Chris Godwin hitting the 100-yard mark in three of the last four games, and with DaeSean Hamilton stepping up his game. This team does have weapons, and they’re just starting to figure it all out late in the season. At home, the offense should hum, especially if …

Player Who Matters
… this is Christian Hackenberg’s last home game. It’s not like he’s captured the heart of Nittany Lion nation – he just hasn’t been good enough – but his game is coming around at just the right time. The NFL prospect has thrown just three picks on the year and just one in the last seven games with 12 touchdown passes. He’s still not accurate enough, and he’s still too inconsistent, but he’s also had a strong three-game stretch throwing for 786 yards against Maryland, Illinois and Northwestern. He was just okay in last year’s loss to Michigan, but he threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns and two picks as a freshman in the 43-40 win. He has to be fantastic in the home finale.

What’s Going To Happen?
a well-rested Penn State will come out hot, but Michigan will slowly grind away with the rushing attack. The defense will rise up after last week’s problems against the Hoosiers, and Hackenberg just won’t be good enough. If he’s the best player on the field, Penn State wins. He won’t be.

Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction
Final Score: Michigan 27, Penn State 20, Line: Michigan -4, o/u: 42.5
 

SoxJox

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Also, it's a noon start for a White Out game. Most have been night time starts. There have been 11 WO games total, with only 7 being full-stadium (vs student section-only). The Lions are 5-6 in those games, with notable wins against Notre Dame in 2007 and Michigan in 2010 and '13.

This will be the 2nd time that Penn State has hosted Michigan in a full stadium WO game and the fourth time overall. The last time the teams met in a WO game, Penn State claimed a dramatic 43-40 victory in four overtimes in 2013.

Here's a toast to a well played game.
 

SoxJox

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A very nice profile on Saquon Barkley. If UM had trouble against the run vs IU, the Saquon may be able to do some damage.

An interesting point given the Lions' OL woes:

"In one game against Liberty, Moussa watched as his offensive line missed a bevy of assignments. After reviewing the tape, the Zephyrs' staff changed several blocking schemes.

During the contest, though, Barkley bounced off dozens of defenders, sprinted around others and finished with more than 200 yards rushing.

Afterward, he came up to Moussa and praised his blockers.

"Coach, we had holes everywhere," Barkley said.

"Nope," Moussa responded. "That was all you. There were no holes there, man.'"
 

canderson

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So James Franklin is a very crappy coach with an even worse surrounding staff. At what point to recruits begin to bail? They've had a few already.

Can't gameplan on offense, one of the worst a mom trans I've ever seen, horrible clock management, bizarre decisions on 4th downs, incredibly terrible red zone formations, etc.

He is a great salesman but from what I've seen quite a poor coach.
 

SoxJox

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To be sure, John Donovan, in particular, brings out the worst in Franklin. I think I've stated before but if not, one of Franklin's "greatest" attributes may be his downfall: loyalty to his staff.

But the clock management piece is all JF. He has consistently wasted half of his TO's for at least the past 5 games.

I could go on, but I don't want to ruin my day.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Well, there really are no stakes for Michigan unless it beats OSU, and we have the early game. And the truth is, even if everything breaks right tomorrow, Michigan is still unlikely to get into the playoff. And, the way we get kept OUT of the Fiesta or Rose if we beat OSU is if you guys win (and then we lose to Iowa).

All that said, go get em!
 

Average Reds

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I was hoping some UM fans would hop in here and show the Lions some love given the stakes of tomorrow's game vs MSU. Where's the love? Come on baby, karma!!!
Last week I openly rooted for Ohio State for the first time and that didn't go as well as I had hoped ...

Having said that, this native Pennsylvanian will be rooting hard for the Lions tomorrow. (Assuming that Michigan takes care of business earlier in the day.)
 

sfip

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When it rains it pours. There are tweets saying K Quinn Nordin has decommitted PSU to commit to Michigan.
 

SoxJox

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Here's all you need to know: Penn State is a combined 0-6 against Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State since the start of the 2014 season. The Lions were outscored 204-89 in those contests.

Good riddance.
 

canderson

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Here's all you need to know: Penn State is a combined 0-6 against Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State since the start of the 2014 season. The Lions were outscored 204-89 in those contests.

Good riddance.
Think I read Franklin has never beat a ranked team when he was an underdog. Don't think he is the answer to make PSU relevant.
 

terrynever

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4Star DB Lavert Hill decommits, as expected. Harbaugh visited Hill in Detroit today along with his secondary coach, Mike Zordich, ex-Penn State All-American and 12-year NFL veteran.

Nits also reportedly losing their top kicking prospect. The last two weeks have undone a lot of good recruiting. Bad coaching and one sided losses on national TV trump good recruiting every time. Franklin's credibility on the line heading into bowl game. He needs a mediocre opponent to beat and quiet his critics for the offseason.
 

SoxJox

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Carl Nassib follows up Bednerik Award win with additional Lombardi Trophy hardware, beating out Ohio State's end Joey Bosa, Texas A&M end Myles Garrett, and Clemson end Shaq Lawson.

This goes along with:

  • B1G's Defensive Lineman of the Year
  • B1G's Defensive Player of the Year
  • 1st Team SI All American
  • 1st Team CBS All American
He missed out on the Burlsworth Award (Top Former Walk-On) to Sooner QB Baker Mayfield, and on the Nagurski Award (National Defensive POY) to Temple's Tyler Matakevich)

Somehow, he only made USA Today's 2nd Team AA.
 

sfip

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Penn State hires Fordham coach Joe Moorhead as new offensive coordinator.

In 2015, Moorhead coached the Rams to a 9-3 record, culminating in a loss to Chattanooga in the FCS playoffs. The Rams scored 384 points, rushed for 1,876 yards and passed for 2,722 yards this season.

Moorhead coached the Rams for four years, leading them to a Patriot League title in 2014 with an offense that set school records in both rushing yards and scoring.

He also guided the Rams to the FCS National Title game in 2013. He was named the 2013 Patriot League Coach of the Year for his efforts.

In 2012, he inherited a team that had gone 1-10 a year before, and took the squad to a 6-5 record.
He won't call plays for the Tax Slayer (f.k.a. Gator) Bowl.
 

SoxJox

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I understand the desire to get someone in before the bowl to accelerate the transition as soon as possible, but this was pretty quick. Going on just the improvement in Fordham's record, Moorhead must be bringing something. We'll be left to see whether that something is what is needed to fix Penn State' offensive woes.

I was hoping for someone more like Bob Stitt, although that would not have helped in the recruiting world so much - a consideration I'm sure sat high on Franklin's qualifications list.
 

SoxJox

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247Sports's take:

He teaches plays that fit within an established set of concepts -- with responsibilities based on alignment rather than position -- which will likely make his system easy for players to process. His quarterbacks operate almost solely out of the shotgun and have multiple options where they can deliver the football, both in terms of areas of the field -- deep, intermediate and short -- and depending on what the defense is doing.

And that defense won't have much time to react or adjust. Moorhead utilizes a lot of no-huddle and tempo; his teams ran 67.9 plays per game (opponents ran 71.8) compared to 62.8 for Penn State this season and averaged 6.7 yards per play, compared to the Nittany Lions' 5.5. Fordham averaged 79 plays per game in 2013 and 74 in 2014.
 

SoxJox

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Barkley was the only player from the Big Ten to appear on either one of the true freshman All-America teams.

Even in a short season, Barkley set the Penn State freshman rushing record with 1,007 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He had only one carry in the opener and missed two more games because of injury. Those in and around the Penn State program insist he has only scratched the surface of how good he can be


.
 

canderson

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No surprise but Hackenberg just declared for the NFL Draft after the bowl loss.

Franklin has yet to impress me in any game in any way.
 

SoxJox

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It's probably in Hackenberg's best interests to declare. Why risk a highly probable injury? I'm not sure what his real up side is. I don't think anyone really does. And while McSorley isn't the next coming of Cam Newton, he showed himself well, considering it was his first real extended experience.

As far as Franklin goes, the 2016 recruiting class will be the first one fully free of sanction effects (the first in which they can recruit to the full 25-man yearly limit and get to the 85 total team limit). He has a top 10 recruiting class right now with anywhere from 3-5 spots still open. There's no doubt that he can recruit. But a key element to that recruiting success is the prospect of winning as well. And if recruits do not see players being coached to become better, and also collecting the expected wins that go hand-in-hand with that, they'll quit committing. Some wins against OSU, UM, or MSU would help, too.

One good thing about last year's and next year's recruits, Franklin has begun to rebuild the depth that was lost in the O-line - manifesting itself most notably in 5* OT Michael Menet. I don't believe it can be understated just how devastating that lack of depth was. The travails of the O-line this year and last are obvious - but Franklin didn't have any options, really.

With a new OC in Joe Moorhead, I'm willing to give him 2 more years to remove the benefit of uncertainty. McSorley probably fits Moorhead's and Franklin's preferred style of play. Although 2016 recruit QB Jake Zembiec - as a pro-style QB, probably closer to Hackenberg-esque qualities - is arriving for Spring semester.
 

WayBackVazquez

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It's probably in Hackenberg's best interests to declare. Why risk a highly probable injury? I'm not sure what his real up side is. I don't think anyone really does.
Well, he's at best a second round pick right now. Generally, when you say there's no upside, it means you're already a high first-round pick. If you don't think he can possibly be any better than he's been the last two years, I suppose there's no upside. But if that's the case, he may as well go into coaching right now.
 

SoxJox

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Of course, the Cinderella story would have the Texans taking him, BO'B keeping his job, which now seems more likely than earlier in the season (they win the AFC South outright with their win today, I believe), and coaching him back up to his former potential. But stories like that don't happen very often, and likely won't here either.

I do believe he can be better, but how much? Don't know, or how long it will take him to get there. Word has it he will be going immediately to SoCal to train with Jordan Palmer - Carson's brother. Palmer trained up Blake Bortles before the 2014 draft.

Likely he's taken in the 2nd round, but there are so few good QBs in the NFL right now (and I'm not suggesting Hack is or necessarily will be one), that I believe someone will take a gamble in the 1st round, because well over half of the QBs drafted in the past few years have not panned out or are expected to have any impact in the near future - Cam Newton and Russel Wilson, excepted. Someone will probably see him as no different and take the plunge.
 

lars10

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Barkley was the only player from the Big Ten to appear on either one of the true freshman All-America teams.

Even in a short season, Barkley set the Penn State freshman rushing record with 1,007 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He had only one carry in the opener and missed two more games because of injury. Those in and around the Penn State program insist he has only scratched the surface of how good he can be


.
I could look this up, but you may know off the top of your head… How many freshman running backs were there in JoePa's tenure? As I recall he never (or very, very rarely) played freshman until at the very end of his career.

And I agree with Canderson… Franklin has been a great recruiter, but I haven't seen too much in game. It will be interesting going forward if that changes as he gets his own players and over all better players as all the scholarships come back into play.