2015 OF Discussion

lxt · Oct 19, 2014

Well there is talk that the Sox are disappointed that Cespedes does not want to move to right and that he is not all that interested in improving his defense. Now, that may not be all that bad when you think that LF allows him to relax a tad compared to the canyon that is RF. As to his defense I'm not sure it's as bad as stated. The Monster takes a little getting use to. So, I'd like to see him out there next season to have a better look. And, we all remember Manny in left so Cespedes may not be all that bad. However, he does offer a nice trading chip at the cost of his offense going away.

I'd like to see Cespedes in left, Betts/Castillo in CF with Victorino/Castillo fighting for RF with Bradley as the 9th inning "prevent defense". That leaves Craig and Nava without a role for me. I'd like to keep Nava some how as he would be a lefty but I'm not sure there is a place for him. We can discuss Bradley Vs. Nava but I'd have to go with defense as a backup Vs a possible plus from Nava from the left side.

Craig has some potential to fill out a trade as does Nava but they'd have to be add-ons since Craig did so poorly during his stay in Boston. His offense was down even in St. Louis. He's may be a good backup for Napoli at 1B but I don't think the Sox can afford the luxury of having him on the bench. Nava is a filler in a trade. Who would take one or both of them is a tad hard to say. Reds maybe, possibly Texas. Both offer some degree of return only because there is not a great deal out there.

OptimusPapi · Oct 19, 2014

I kind of feel that Nava and Craig are redundant. They both provided depth in the corners and at first. Nava is one of the few lefties but Craig doesn't have the split Nava has. Also while Nava is good for an ops in the seven hundreds range Craig has a very good chance of rebounding which is a very exciting player. I know some people believe that after a player has one bad season they are done but I think seeing what Craig has is prudent. Maybe we can include Nava in a package for one of the Reds pitchers? So the outfield would be Cespedes, Castillo and Betts. The bench would be Craig Vic Holt and backup catcher.

OptimusPapi · Oct 19, 2014

lxt said:
Well there is talk that the Sox are disappointed that Cespedes does not want to move to right and that he is not all that interested in improving his defense. Now, that may not be all that bad when you think that LF allows him to relax a tad compared to the canyon that is RF. As to his defense I'm not sure it's as bad as stated. The Monster takes a little getting use to. So, I'd like to see him out there next season to have a better look. And, we all remember Manny in left so Cespedes may not be all that bad. However, he does offer a nice trading chip at the cost of his offense going away.

I'd like to see Cespedes in left, Betts/Castillo in CF with Victorino/Castillo fighting for RF with Bradley as the 9th inning "prevent defense". That leaves Craig and Nava without a role for me. I'd like to keep Nava some how as he would be a lefty but I'm not sure there is a place for him. We can discuss Bradley Vs. Nava but I'd have to go with defense as a backup Vs a possible plus from Nava from the left side.

Craig has some potential to fill out a trade as does Nava but they'd have to be add-ons since Craig did so poorly during his stay in Boston. His offense was down even in St. Louis. He's may be a good backup for Napoli at 1B but I don't think the Sox can afford the luxury of having him on the bench. Nava is a filler in a trade. Who would take one or both of them is a tad hard to say. Reds maybe, possibly Texas. Both offer some degree of return only because there is not a great deal out there.

No team in their right mind would pigeon hole JBJ as a defensive replacement after one poor rookie season. He is going to be in triple A most of the year barring a catastrophe and hopefully he can put up an ops in the 700 to 720 range in 2016.

ivanvamp · Oct 19, 2014

Assuming no trades….

LF - Cespedes
CF - Castillo
RF - Betts
Bench - Nava, Victorino, Craig (who can play OF or 1b or just be a good RHH off the bench)
AAA - Bradley, Brentz

Having Craig as an IF sub along with Holt actually allows the Sox to be more flexible.

Plympton91 · Oct 19, 2014

OptimusPapi said:
I know some people believe that after a player has one bad season they are done but I think seeing what Craig has is prudent.

You keep building this strawman but no matter how many times you say it, it remains weak sauce.

Craig has a potentially career ending foot injury. That would be true regardless of how well he played last season.

He's not Lowell circa 2005, he's Lowell circa 2009.

Exploring the trade market for Nava makes sense given the emergence of Holt as a decent OBP guy who has the abiltiy to play above average corner outfield. But Allen Craig is nothing but a lottery ticket, and even if the lottery numbers hit, his foot remains a bigger time bomb than Napoli's hip.

OptimusPapi · Oct 20, 2014

I am glad you are able to see the future Plympton. Could I please have the winning lottery numbers?

koufax37 · Oct 20, 2014

I don't see a healthy Victorino being a bench player for Farrell until after his play merits it. So absent a trade it would seem most likely Cespedes-Castillo-Victorino, with Craig, Nava, Betts left out. Of course there will be a trade, we just don't know who, and that will depend a lot also on the trade partners.

If they think Craig can rebound towards his 2011-2013 trend line, he can be every bit the left fielder that Cespedes can, and I would imagine the perceived value of Cespedes is higher around the league (two home run derbies and two highlight throws hiding a .300 OBP). If they think Craig is healthy and can be sorted out (still a big if), I think Trading Cespedes might be the big move.

CaskNFappin · Oct 20, 2014

It seems that some, like Plympton, are almost pining for Craig's injury to be career ending. 
 
I just saw someone say he was redundant to Nava. 
 
Please let me know when Nava has an MVP caliber season, or is considered the most feared hitter on a World Series lineup. 
 
Allen Craig is a great ball player who had a bad year thanks to a foot injury. The medical staff saw nothing so urgent that he wasn't 60 day DL'd immediately after acquisition. Sure the results were alarming as they come, but sports doctors who are payed handsomely to make such decisions saw no reason to believe lisfranc was a scarlet letter. As is such, I'm guessing the FO believes a proper offseason regimen will have him at 80% of his pre-injury production......which is essentially a guy worth the contract he's entitled to. 
 
Waive him? This isn't Grady Sizemore. Trade him? When his value is admittedly at an all time low....I cringe to think of how bad that'll look. What you do is let him get comfortable and see if you've got a 2016 moving part to soften the blow of a Napoli departure and/or Ortiz decline. Anything else is as short sighted as it gets. You absolutely have to see what he can do with a long enough leash to recapture his form of 2013. 
 
As for Cespedes, you don't ship him out to unclog a logjam created by Betts. Mookie looks great, but have we learned nothing about relying on SSS of guys who just got the right to drink? He's young, 
And counting on him for a hit bat all year seems foolish. Cespedes is consistently good at being an above average slugger.... He's not a burden on the team whatsoever. Look how things came unraveled when he left Oakland.

OptimusPapi · Oct 20, 2014

CaskNFappin said:
It seems that some, like Plympton, are almost pining for Craig's injury to be career ending. 
 
I just saw someone say he was redundant to Nava. 
 
Please let me know when Nava has an MVP caliber season, or is considered the most feared hitter on a World Series lineup. 
 
Allen Craig is a great ball player who had a bad year thanks to a foot injury. The medical staff saw nothing so urgent that he wasn't 60 day DL'd immediately after acquisition. Sure the results were alarming as they come, but sports doctors who are payed handsomely to make such decisions saw no reason to believe lisfranc was a scarlet letter. As is such, I'm guessing the FO believes a proper offseason regimen will have him at 80% of his pre-injury production......which is essentially a guy worth the contract he's entitled to. 
 
Waive him? This isn't Grady Sizemore. Trade him? When his value is admittedly at an all time low....I cringe to think of how bad that'll look. What you do is let him get comfortable and see if you've got a 2016 moving part to soften the blow of a Napoli departure and/or Ortiz decline. Anything else is as short sighted as it gets. You absolutely have to see what he can do with a long enough leash to recapture his form of 2013. 
 
As for Cespedes, you don't ship him out to unclog a logjam created by Betts. Mookie looks great, but have we learned nothing about relying on SSS of guys who just got the right to drink? He's young, 
And counting on him for a hit bat all year seems foolish. Cespedes is consistently good at being an above average slugger.... He's not a burden on the team whatsoever. Look how things came unraveled when he left Oakland.

If you read my post you would see the comparison to Nava was based on the positions they play. I agree with most of your post except I think he should start on the bench and if he warrants more playing time you figure it out then. I think anyone who is sure he can recover are as foolish as those that are sure he is done.

CaskNFappin · Oct 20, 2014

That's the thing, I've seen so few mention any chance that he recovers. 
 
You'd think he stepped on a landline rounding 3rd!

CaskNFappin · Oct 20, 2014

2012: .307/.354/.522/.876, 22 HRs, 92 RBIs 
2013: .315/.373/.457/.830, 13 HRs, 97 RBIs

CaskNFappin · Oct 20, 2014

Keep in mind, MVP discussions should and do take into account the player's team being competitive

TheoShmeo · Oct 20, 2014

I don't know whether Craig is more akin to 2005 Lowell 2005 or 2009 Lowell (though I don't see much of a basis for concluding with any degree of confidence that it's the latter). What I do know is that his trade value is extremely low right now, Napoli and Papi are susceptible to injury/older, Craig's production in the three years prior to 2014 was excellent and very few, if any, teams would take him off the Sox hands without the Sox absorbing a significant portion of his salary.

Gordon Edes notes many of these points in his recent ESPN.com article. http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/40950/edes-eavesdropping-allen-craigs-future

As a result, I think it's pretty unlikely that Craig will not be part of the Sox OF/1B/DH equation in 2015, at least at the start of the season.

MakMan44 · Oct 20, 2014

CaskNFappin said:
Keep in mind, MVP discussions should and do take into account the player's team being competitive

No, they shouldn't.

I think this topic is a bit premature. We all know there is likely going to be at least 1 trade that ships an OF out of here, so that's going to heavily influence discussions.

ivanvamp · Oct 20, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Are we not carrying both a backup IF and C in this scenario or dropping the pitching staff to 11 for the first time in over a decade?

There isn't room for 3 bench players that can't play MI or C. That's the problem.

In my world the Sox would have 14 position players and 11 pitchers.

Maybe trade Victorino if they're going to keep 12 pitchers because (1) he costs more than Craig in 2015, (2) he may be more tradable than Craig, and (3) Craig provides more positional flexibility, being able to play OF or 1b.

KillerBs · Oct 20, 2014

I kinda like the trading Cespedes idea. That would leave Craig and Nava to fight it out for ABs in LF in a 50/50 sort of platoon and Shane to complement Mookie and Rusney in RF/CF, with Bradley in a position to step in for Vic's role if Shane breaks down.

In order to go this route tho the Sox need to have some confidence that Craig is not done and to a lesser extent that Shane is going to be healthy, at least to start the year.

The other options of getting rid of one of these 6 OFers from the 2015 25 man roster all seem highly problematic. I suppose Nava could be moved. But even aside from him being the sole LHB, I am worried about how to divide ABs between Cespedes, Craig, Betts, Castillo and Victorino. They do not complement one another as a group well. And I worry that internal ill will over extreme day to day playing time uncertainty could negatively affect the development of Mookie or Rusney, which should be the main priority.

If they could get a plausible cheapish 3B for Cespedes (Murphy?) then that would free up some money to go higher end on the pitching.

OptimusPapi · Oct 20, 2014

CaskNFappin said:
That's the thing, I've seen so few mention any chance that he recovers. 
 
You'd think he stepped on a landline rounding 3rd!

People around here aren't interested in sanity. They are interested in proclaiming the worst will happen. If someone comes up and says hey wait a minute maybe something good can happen, they are crucified. Also people around here like to believe they know more then Cherington and co.

jscola85 · Oct 20, 2014

The Sox biggest need next year in the OF is reliability and predictability. To that end, the top options to stick around would be:

1. Cespedes - in his prime, healthy, very predictable skills
2. Nava - same as above; we know what he is and he is totally healthy
3. Betts - young, clean injury slate, great MiLB track record, promising first 200 PAs
4. Castillo - healthy, in his prime, good cup of coffee and early returns are positive
5. Victorino - health is a huge concern but he's also perhaps the most talented of all these OFs when he's on the field
6. Bradley - already a plus-plus defender and plus runner, he's healthy but the bat is a huge worry
7. Holt - versatile, decent defender, healthy, but his bat may be a total mirage given how much he struggled in August/September
8. Craig - was on the downturn even before 2014 debacle; bad defender in OF, injury-prone and bat may be cooked

I'm not saying Cespedes/Nava/Betts should be the starters, but given the total unpredictability we had last year in performance, I think the Sox need to strongly consider keeping all three on the roster for 2015. Assuming the Sox go with 12 pitchers, that leaves a roster of something like:

C - Vazquez, [Backup C - Ross?]
1B - Napoli, Nava
2B - Pedroia
3B - [TBD - likely a FA]
SS - Bogaerts
DH - Ortiz
OF - Cespedes, Castillo, Betts, Victorino, Nava
UT - Weeks (he makes it over Holt because he can play SS)

Simply put, the roster doesn't have the luxury to keep two high-risk, high-reward players like Craig and Victorino. Holt's and Bradley's bats are too big a question mark to carry, plus they have the ability to ride the I-95 shuttle up and down this year from Pawtucket. To me, Victorino is a lot better risk to take as an older, injury-prone guy as your 4th/5th OF. He's a better player than Craig when healthy and the team is only committed to him through the end of 2015.

pdub · Oct 20, 2014

Anyone think we may keep Cespedes around due to the Cuban connection with Rusney? I know its not a defining point but I feel it could potentially be a consideration going through the minds of the front office.

YTF · Oct 20, 2014

CaskNFappin said:
2012: .307/.354/.522/.876, 22 HRs, 92 RBIs 
2013: .315/.373/.457/.830, 13 HRs, 97 RBIs

CaskNFappin said:
Keep in mind, MVP discussions should and do take into account the player's team being competitive

I would love to see Craig return to that sort of production as I'm sure most of us would, but I wouldn't quite tout those seasons as MVP caliber. 2012 Posey gets the award with 422 votes Craig finishes 19th with 10 points. Two teammates (Molina and Holiday) finish higher. In 2013 McCutchen finishes with 409 points and Craig finishes in 18th place with a total of 4 points. Again two teammates (Molina and Carpenter) finish higher. Fine seasons no doubt, the type of player anyone would like on their team, but NOT MVP caliber.

YTF · Oct 20, 2014

pdub said:
Anyone think we may keep Cespedes around due to the Cuban connection with Rusney? I know its not a defining point but I feel it could potentially be a consideration going through the minds of the front office.

I would say you keep Cespedes around because he's Cespedes. Acquiring him in the Lester deal filled a need that will once again be a need if you move him.

jscola85 · Oct 20, 2014

YTF said:
I would love to see Craig return to that sort of production as I'm sure most of us would, but I wouldn't quite tout those seasons as MVP caliber. 2012 Posey gets the award with 422 votes Craig finishes 19th with 10 points. Two teammates (Molina and Holiday) finish higher. In 2013 McCutchen finishes with 409 points and Craig finishes in 18th place with a total of 4 points. Again two teammates (Molina and Carpenter) finish higher. Fine seasons no doubt, the type of player anyone would like on their team, but NOT MVP caliber.

Craig will never be an MVP-caliber player because he never stays on the field, he's a crummy defender and a subpar baserunner (potentially Ortiz-bad because of the Lisfranc). He basically has to hit at a .300/.370/.475 line to be a productive player because he's rarely going to suit up more than 100-120 games and when he does he doesn't bring anything else but his bat.

Savin Hillbilly · Oct 20, 2014

ivanvamp said:
In my world the Sox would have 14 position players and 11 pitchers.

Is there a special NESN channel so we can watch the games in your world? :buddy:

Seriously, though, if there was ever a year the Sox might go 14-11, at least in stretches, it's 2015--both because of the position player crunch and the fact that we have such an abundance of MLB-ready pitching talent that can be shuffled in and out to shore up the bullpen.

I still don't think they'll do it, though.

TheoShmeo said:
As a result, I think it's pretty unlikely that Craig will not be part of the Sox OF/1B/DH equation in 2015, at least at the start of the season.

OK, but then who isn't part of the equation? And we can't just say, "oh, these things have a way of taking care of themselves." Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, and they need to plan for the "sometimes they don't" case. If Craig, Victorino, Napoli, Ortiz, Cespedes, Nava, JBJ, Castillo and Betts all are healthy and ready when the bell rings, we are looking at nine guys for seven roster slots if they go 13/12, nine guys for eight slots if they go 14/11. In the latter case they probably send down JBJ; problem solved. But in the former case, even after they do that, something's gotta give--and it almost has to be Betts unless they happen to have a trade for one of the other guys lined up and ready to go.

In short: if they don't trade somebody, they may wind up with no choice but to start Betts in AAA next year, and keep him there until somebody goes down. If people are OK with that, then there's no pressing need to trade anybody.

lexrageorge · Oct 20, 2014

Allen Craig was not cooked prior to 2014: Between 2012 and 2013, his HR totals did indeed drop, but his OBP actually increased by 20 points. An 0.830 OPS is hardly "declining". And football players have recovered from LisFranc injuries.

I agree that he's slow, not a great defender, and needs to show that he's healthy in the spring. I would not project him any higher than a 4th OF and backup 1B/DH right now. And, assuming the current set of Sox OF'ers remain unchanged, I agree that getting Craig through an optional waivers assignment to AAA would be prudent.

MakMan44 · Oct 20, 2014

Savin, I think that's what they do if they don't find a trade that they like. There's no point in moving an OF just because you HAVE to move one.

Snodgrass'Muff · Oct 20, 2014

ivanvamp said:
In my world the Sox would have 14 position players and 11 pitchers.

Maybe trade Victorino if they're going to keep 12 pitchers because (1) he costs more than Craig in 2015, (2) he may be more tradable than Craig, and (3) Craig provides more positional flexibility, being able to play OF or 1b.

Victorino can play all three outfield positions. Craig can play left field and first base. At worst, Victorino can play right and left and they are available for the same amount of positions.

Maybe there is a small amount of value in Craig being able to play somewhere outside of the outfield crunch but that is dwarfed by Victorino's defensive ability and base running. Plus, Napoli hasn't missed much time at first with Boston, so I'm not sure how much time Craig would get there in 2015 anyway.

I like Craig and I hope they find a way to keep him around as I can see him being a solid DH replacement for Papi in a couple years or maybe even Napoli after this season, but I don't see the argument for keeping him over Victorino, especially if they hope to be competitive next year.

jscola85 · Oct 20, 2014

lexrageorge said:
Allen Craig was not cooked prior to 2014: Between 2012 and 2013, his HR totals did indeed drop, but his OBP actually increased by 20 points. An 0.830 OPS is hardly "declining". And football players have recovered from LisFranc injuries.

I agree that he's slow, not a great defender, and needs to show that he's healthy in the spring. I would not project him any higher than a 4th OF and backup 1B/DH right now. And, assuming the current set of Sox OF'ers remain unchanged, I agree that getting Craig through an optional waivers assignment to AAA would be prudent.

His 2013 was heavily BABIP-driven. Do you really expect him to have a .368 BABIP like he did in 2013? Even if he hit at his career .325 BABIP in 2013, that line of his drops to .285/.343/.425. A .770 OPS hitter who can't run or field is not worth much.

TheoShmeo · Oct 20, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
OK, but then who isn't part of the equation? And we can't just say, "oh, these things have a way of taking care of themselves." Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, and they need to plan for the "sometimes they don't" case. If Craig, Victorino, Napoli, Ortiz, Cespedes, Nava, JBJ, Castillo and Betts all are healthy and ready when the bell rings, we are looking at nine guys for seven roster slots if they go 13/12, nine guys for eight slots if they go 14/11. In the latter case they probably send down JBJ; problem solved. But in the former case, even after they do that, something's gotta give--and it almost has to be Betts unless they happen to have a trade for one of the other guys lined up and ready to go.

In short: if they don't trade somebody, they may wind up with no choice but to start Betts in AAA next year, and keep him there until somebody goes down. If people are OK with that, then there's no pressing need to trade anybody.

Make no mistake about it, I would like to see Betts in the Sox starting line-up next season. And I agree that they need to move some of their OFs. Hell, like others, I hope they find a way to land Stanton this off season even though I think that's not very likely.

But for the reasons I mentioned, I think that they should not trade Allen Craig at this time.

TigerBlood · Oct 20, 2014

It's ludicrous to trade Craig right now. He has zero value on his own, and he's not going to tip the scales in any trade scenario, I would think. You have the opportunity to stash him in AAA for 2015 and monitor him for signs of life for just 5.5 million. Its not nothing, but we are not the Rays or Royals.

He is a cheap lottery ticket that we can keep in the minors at little cost. The upside is he regains his form, and he can play 1B and DH in the future as Napoli and Ortiz's contracts expire. The downside is we spend 5.5 million on him this season, he shows no improvement, and you cut your monetary losses.

If the front office chooses to give him ABs at the major league level without proving anything in the minors first, then I don't know what. Because being able to put both Craig and JBJ in AAA sort of solves our logjam, does it not?

snowmanny · Oct 20, 2014

TigerBlood said:
It's ludicrous to trade Craig right now. He has zero value on his own, and he's not going to tip the scales in any trade scenario, I would think. You have the opportunity to stash him in AAA for 2015 and monitor him for signs of life for just 5.5 million. Its not nothing, but we are not the Rays or Royals.

He is a cheap lottery ticket that we can keep in the minors at little cost. The upside is he regains his form, and he can play 1B and DH in the future as Napoli and Ortiz's contracts expire. The downside is we spend 5.5 million on him this season, he shows no improvement, and you cut your monetary losses.

If the front office chooses to give him ABs at the major league level without proving anything in the minors first, then I don't know what. Because being able to put both Craig and JBJ in AAA sort of solves our logjam, does it not?

This is exactly right. Craig has not been able to perform like a major league player since the beginning of September, 2013. Betts, meanwhile, has been on fire through multiple levels and is a plus defender at multiple positions. If the priority is winning games, Betts should be in the starting line-up on opening day and Craig should not. Now if the priority is something else, Betts should spend most of the year in AAA to save his service time.

KillerBs · Oct 20, 2014

I very much doubt Allen Craig is going to AAA, unless he hits a .100 in Spring Training. Craig to PAW is a Stratomatic solution but not a real world one. At the same time I agree he has no business get ABs ahead of Mookie now.

It is worth nothing that Craig had a pretty good 40 game run in May June 2014 this year which gives me hope he may not be a pumpkin.

Looks to me like the best option in a bad situation is to give him some reasonable chance to return to form without planning on giving him everyday ABs to start the year. That means he assumes the Jonny Gomes role to partner with Daniel Nava. This in turn requires YC being moved. The downside of course, as noted, is that this will significantly increase the chances that we lose 2015 too to massively underwhelming OF offensive performance.

Also I am confused with how the Sox can "cut their monetary losses" with Craig after 2015 even if he stinks it up in PAW. We are on the hook for 3/25.5m unless we find someone to take him off our hands, aren't we? Remember that's the price we paid to upgrade to Joe Kelly from Jon Lackey.

glennhoffmania · Oct 20, 2014

Yes, the source is a moron. But I figured I'd throw this out there:

Will outfielder Yoenis Cespedes' stay with the Red Sox be a brief one? Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, in the midst of his must-read "Sunday Baseball Notes" column, writes that Boston may be looking to trade Cespedes this offseason. As Cafardo notes, Cespedes recently expressed some reluctance to sign with the Red Sox long-term.

Green Monster · Oct 20, 2014

Cespedes maybe positioning himself for a big FA run next off-season

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/yoenis-cespedes-switches-agents.html

Yoenis Cespedes Switches Agents
By Mark Polishuk [October 20, 2014 at 11:55am CDT]

Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes has switched agencies and is now being represented by Roc Nation Sports...........................

TigerBlood · Oct 20, 2014

KillerBs said:
I very much doubt Allen Craig is going to AAA, unless he hits a .100 in Spring Training. Craig to PAW is a Stratomatic solution but not a real world one. At the same time I agree he has no business get ABs ahead of Mookie now.

It is worth nothing that Craig had a pretty good 40 game run in May June 2014 this year which gives me hope he may not be a pumpkin.

Looks to me like the best option in a bad situation is to give him some reasonable chance to return to form without planning on giving him everyday ABs to start the year. That means he assumes the Jonny Gomes role to partner with Daniel Nava. This in turn requires YC being moved. The downside of course, as noted, is that this will significantly increase the chances that we lose 2015 too to massively underwhelming OF offensive performance.

Also I am confused with how the Sox can "cut their monetary losses" with Craig after 2015 even if he stinks it up in PAW. We are on the hook for 3/25.5m unless we find someone to take him off our hands, aren't we? Remember that's the price we paid to upgrade to Joe Kelly from Jon Lackey.

The only comparison I can come up with for sending Craig to AAA is Alex Gordon. Gordon had a couple semi productive seasons, then sucked and got injured in '09 and was demoted in for a time in 2010, almost 3 months. FWIW Gordon was still in his arb years and Craig has a contract but the precedent is there. I don't see why this is so unfathomable.

And to your last point, yes. I'm suggesting we either find someone who'll take him off our hands, most likely with us eating most of the money. A hard DFA is probably not a real world solution, but if [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]we're a competitive team that year[/SIZE] and this franchise needs the room for a competent player, eating ~$20 million isn't impossible in a market like Boston.

sean1562 · Oct 20, 2014

Green Monster said:
Cespedes maybe positioning himself for a big FA run next off-season

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/yoenis-cespedes-switches-agents.html

Yoenis Cespedes Switches Agents
By Mark Polishuk [October 20, 2014 at 11:55am CDT]

Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes has switched agencies and is now being represented by Roc Nation Sports...........................

Who is gonna sign a 30 year old LF with a career OPS of .780 to a massive deal?

Snoop Soxy Dogg · Oct 20, 2014

sean1562 said:
Who is gonna sign a 30 year old LF with a career OPS of .780 to a massive deal?

Well, if he hits 40 home runs with 100 RBIs and does (nearly) little else, I'm pretty sure he'll get his money. I know HR/RBIs aren't supposed to matter any more (I kid, I kid), but still..

ehaz · Oct 20, 2014

I'm having dreams of Jason Heyward patrolling RF in Fenway for the next 5-10 years. http://tomahawktake.com/2014/10/16/case-trading-jason-heyward/

Betts LF
Heyward RF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Headley 3B
Rusney CF
Bogaerts SS
Vasquez C

Cespedes is gone in this scenario. Victorino, Betts and Castillo share ABs for LF/CF and spelling Pedroia at second - Nava on the bench and Craig starts the season in Pawtucket.

geoduck no quahog · Oct 20, 2014

As of today, the Red Sox outfield in 2016 presumably includes Castillo, Betts and Craig. Bradley waiting in the wings. This of course assumes no trades.

Fangraphs predicts Margot in late 2017 and ranks Brentz at #21 in the system, albeit he would potentially be ready for the major leagues at any time.

Craig, if he isn't toast, is kind of important to 2016 right now.

For me, the Craig thing is simple. Let him attempt normal offseason preparations this winter and see if he comes to Spring Training healthy and ready. If the health problems are insurmountable - he seems like the kind of guy who would inform the Sox - and they'll have to deal with the sunk costs.

geoduck no quahog · Oct 20, 2014

ehaz said:
I'm having dreams of Jason Heyward patrolling RF in Fenway for the next 5-10 years. http://tomahawktake.com/2014/10/16/case-trading-jason-heyward/

Betts LF
Heyward RF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Headley 3B
Rusney CF
Bogaerts SS
Vasquez C

Cespedes is gone in this scenario. Victorino, Betts and Castillo share ABs for LF/CF and spelling Pedroia at second - Nava on the bench and Craig starts the season in Pawtucket.

I assume Betts is gone in that speculative trade.

ehaz · Oct 20, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
I assume Betts is gone in that speculative trade.

Why? He's only under contract for another year and he's coming off one of his worst seasons with the bat. Obviously, with his elite defense and good on base skills he's still valuable, but the Braves likely don't have the payroll to extend him having just locked up Freeman to an 8 year contract.

TigerBlood · Oct 20, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
As of today, the Red Sox outfield in 2016 presumably includes Castillo, Betts and Craig. Bradley waiting in the wings. This of course assumes no trades.

I doubt JBJr is in a waiting in the wings scenario in 2016. He'll be 26. Frankly, its more likely he's played himself into a bench role instead, in which case, your point of roster construction still holds. But really if he isn't starting, I doubt he is still on our team.

geoduck no quahog said:
For me, the Craig thing is simple. Let him attempt normal offseason preparations this winter and see if he comes to Spring Training healthy and ready. If the health problems are insurmountable - he seems like the kind of guy who would inform the Sox - and they'll have to deal with the sunk costs.

To your point about Craig; "he seems like the kind of guy who would inform the Sox" ... What does that even mean?

glennhoffmania · Oct 20, 2014

ehaz said:
Why? He's only under contract for another year and he's coming off one of his worst seasons with the bat. Obviously, with his elite defense and good on base skills he's still valuable, but the Braves likely don't have the payroll to extend him having just locked up Freeman to an 8 year contract.

Here's an article about Heyward's contract situation. It may not be that they can't afford him. It may be that they don't think he's good enough to justify a mega-deal.

Rasputin · Oct 20, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
As of today, the Red Sox outfield in 2016 presumably includes Castillo, Betts and Craig. Bradley waiting in the wings. This of course assumes no trades.

Fangraphs predicts Margot in late 2017 and ranks Brentz at #21 in the system, albeit he would potentially be ready for the major leagues at any time.

Craig, if he isn't toast, is kind of important to 2016 right now.

For me, the Craig thing is simple. Let him attempt normal offseason preparations this winter and see if he comes to Spring Training healthy and ready. If the health problems are insurmountable - he seems like the kind of guy who would inform the Sox - and they'll have to deal with the sunk costs.

I don't think Craig is important to 2016 for the outfield, but for first base or DH as Mike Napoli is a free agent and David Ortiz is another year closer to being too old.

I'd personally like to see an outfield of Betts, Castillo, and Bradley in some configuration because they'd catch pretty close to everything that's catchable, but that's a discussion for a year from now.

Just a bit outside · Oct 20, 2014

Is it possible to acquire Heyward with a combination of JBJ, Coyle, a young pitcher not named Owens or Rodriquez, and an outfielder of choice in Cespedes or a subsidized Victorino or Craig if they pass their medicals?

This would give them a replacement for BJ Upton in center in Bradley. A rf to replace Heyward in Cespedes, Craig, or Victorino. A second baseman in Coyle who can challenge La Stella or platoon with him and another young pitcher.

sean1562 · Oct 20, 2014

Just a bit outside said:
Is it possible to acquire Heyward with a combination of JBJ, Coyle, a young pitcher not named Owens or Rodriquez, and an outfielder of choice in Cespedes or a subsidized Victorino or Craig if they pass their medicals?

This would give them a replacement for BJ Upton in center in Bradley. A rf to replace Heyward in Cespedes, Craig, or Victorino. A second baseman in Coyle who can challenge La Stella or platoon with him and another young pitcher.

eh they are looking to trade heyward because they dont think they can sign him past next season, dont really think they would want any of our veteran OFs, why not just keep him? Especially since bradley looks like a defensive replacement and their top prospect is a 2B much better than Coyle. The only real long term asset they would be acquiring is bradley and they would be getting worse in the OF. If we want anything of value we are gonna have to trade some prospects of value.

ehaz · Oct 20, 2014

Just a bit outside said:
Is it possible to acquire Heyward with a combination of JBJ, Coyle, a young pitcher not named Owens or Rodriquez, and an outfielder of choice in Cespedes or a subsidized Victorino or Craig if they pass their medicals?

This would give them a replacement for BJ Upton in center in Bradley. A rf to replace Heyward in Cespedes, Craig, or Victorino. A second baseman in Coyle who can challenge La Stella or platoon with him and another young pitcher.

This is similar to my thought process. Given the article that glennhoff posted, if the Braves are down on Heyward - they may view Cespedes/Heyward on one year deals as nearly a wash. Perhaps all you need to sweeten the pot is someone to challenge Johnson at 3rd (Cecchini or WMB), and a young arm or two from the AAAA surplus.

ATL will still compete next season, which is why they might demand a power hitting corner outfield bat in return. If the rest of the package is viewed by their front office as better than the 1st round draft pick they get when Heyward walks, they might go for it.

sean1562 · Oct 20, 2014

ehaz said:
This is similar to my thought process. Given the article that glennhoff posted, if the Braves are down on Heyward - perhaps they view Cespedes/Heyward on one year deals as nearly a wash. Perhaps all you need to sweeten the pot is someone to challenge Johnson at 3rd (Cecchini or WMB), and a young arm or two from the AAAA surplus.

they didnt have terribly different lines last year and heyward is very clearly much better defensively. maybe they dont want to sign him long term but i highly doubt they think cespedes and heyward are comparable players. also, wouldnt they have to move the defensively challenged justin upton to right field? heyward is clearly the better player, and he come with a pick from the QO. Maybe Cecchini would do something for them but swapping a 29 year old without a QO for a still improving RF with a QO, who, even if he doesnt improve, is already better than Cespedes and some lukewarm prospects probably isnt going to happen.

Edit: If the Braves FO is stupid enough to think that Cespedes and Heyward are basically identical value wise, then yes, maybe we can throw them cespedes and a mid tier prospect. i dont think they are that dumb, and im sure there will be other teams in the bidding for him if they put him on the market. if we think the OF FA and trade market is weak, Heyward is prob the jewel of the class(unless the Dodgers try to unload Puig or Kemp)

sean1562 · Oct 20, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Is Heyward the kind of guy you'd want to give a 10 year, $200 - $250M deal? Because I have to assume that's what it will take. He'll only be 26 as a free agent, which is great, but he's also been relatively inconsistent. Someone's gonna give him a ton of money.

next year is a huge year for him. If he takes a massive step forward with his bat(like starts hitting .830-.850) maybe a team will offer him 10 years at 20 mil plus. If he hits .750 i highly doubt someone gives him that 10 year deal, Who would give it to him? And if he gets that deal, where does Justin Upton sign his 10 year 250 million dollar one next offseason?

edit: next year's FA class is really good no? do we expect loads of teams to start throwing 10 year 200 million dollar contracts out? Who signs Heyward and Upton to 10 year deals? Where do Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Mat Latos, Jeff Samardzija, David Price, an Doug Fister get their 7 year/150 million deals? Ian Desmond and Matt Weiters are FA as well

Minneapolis Millers · Oct 20, 2014

I would not want to give Heyward a 10 year deal on those terms. Given this team's current OF depth/talent and overall excellent defense, I'd rather they stock up on great pitching and find a slugging 1B/DH type in the next year who doesn't cost nearly as much as Heyward will. Heck, Craig might already be that guy, if he can ever get healthy again.

2015 OF Discussion

Member

New Member

Jiminy Cricket

Jiminy Cricket

captain obvious

bubble burster

Jiminy Cricket

Member

rembrat's protegé

Jiminy Cricket

rembrat's protegé

rembrat's protegé

rembrat's protegé

Skrub's sympathy case

stole corsi's dream

captain obvious

New Member

Jiminy Cricket

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

Member

stole corsi's dream

oppresses WARmongers

Member

Skrub's sympathy case

Banned

Member

New Member

meat puppet

Member

Banned

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

not particularly consistent

not particularly consistent

Member

Banned

meat puppet

Will outlive SeanBerry

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!